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Stan NordFX

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CryptoNews of the Week

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- US President Joe Biden signed a bill to raise $1.2 trillion to upgrade infrastructure without amendments in favor of representatives of the crypto industry. The document contains an extended definition of the concept of “broker”. Depending on the interpretation, miners, wallet developers, DeFi protocol liquidity providers and other digital market players may be required to report the activities of their users to the tax authorities. The crypto community is also concerned about another amendment to the infrastructure plan, which will oblige recipients of digital assets worth more than $10,000 to verify the sender's personal information.
The document has been repeatedly criticized by representatives of the crypto industry, including the head of Tesla Elon Musk and the founder of the payment company Square Jack Dorsey. Some senators believe that participants in the crypto industry should be excluded from this law. According to others, only miners and sellers of hardware and software should be exempt from reporting to the tax authorities.

- Investing Twitter's cash reserves in cryptocurrencies “does not make sense right now”. This was stated by the financial director of the company Ned Segal. According to him, the social network prefers to invest in less volatile instruments, for example, securities. Earlier, Ned Segal reported that Twitter is exploring the possibility of using bitcoin, but this will require the company to make additional decisions.
As of the end of September, Twitter had $3.47 billion in cash and cash equivalents, as well as $3.94 billion in short-term investments.
Meanwhile, the payment company Square, founded by Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, continues to hold the main cryptocurrency on its balance sheet. “We have purchased bitcoin, and it seems to us that this not only demonstrates our interest but can also bring benefits from a financial point of view in the long term,” the Square said.

- Bitcoin will “easily” reach a price of $500,000. This forecast was given by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital investment company, referring to the limited issue of the first cryptocurrency and the potential number of rich investors in it. He noted that according to JPMorgan, there are at least 49 million dollar millionaires, but the supply of digital gold is limited to 21 million coins. “You don’t have enough bitcoins for every millionaire in our society to have at least one coin,” Scaramucci said.
In his opinion, the current price level is still an early opportunity to enter the asset, and the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach the specified $500,000 mark by the end of 2024 or mid-2025. However, this requires that Ark Invest's forecast come true, according to which the number of bitcoin wallets should reach 1 billion by this time.

- The US authorities will sell the confiscated cryptocurrency for $56 million to pay the victims of the BitConnect pyramid. The Justice Department notes that this is “the largest case of one-time recovery of losses from cryptocurrency fraud in the United States.”
The US Securities and Exchange Commission said in a statement that “BitConnect Director Glenn Arcaro and his promoters, none of whom were registered with the Commission as a broker-dealer and were not affiliated with a registered broker-dealer, promoted a potentially high-yielding investment into a lending program for retail investors using recommendation-style videos they posted on YouTube. "
Glenn Arcaro pleaded guilty to deceiving investors in the US and abroad, with the participation of whom the scheme managed to attract more than $2 billion. The verdict will be delivered on January 7, 2022, Arcaro faces up to 20 years in prison.

- Apple will inevitably allow payments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the future. This opinion was expressed by Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of the investment company Morgan Creek Digital, commenting on Apple CEO Tim Cook's recognition of investments in digital assets.
Pompliano believes that cryptocurrency will not be a separate industry, and all tech giants will sooner or later "infiltrate it into all existing assets and industries." In his opinion, technology companies will more actively enter the cryptocurrency industry in the next 10-20 years, inviting experts and leaders from it.
“It has become normal to discuss cryptocurrencies in any society without risking being branded as 'crazy or lost.' Such conversations do not carry career risks anymore,” he added.

- European electronics and home appliance retailer MediaMarkt has been hit by the Hive ransomware virus. According to Retail Detail, the incident affected many of the chain's stores, mostly in the Netherlands and Germany, and the retailer's 3,100 servers were affected. Initially, hackers demanded a ransom of $240 million in bitcoin. But after the company entered into negotiations, the amount was reduced to $50 million.
For reference: MediaMarkt owns more than 1000 retail facilities in 13 countries. The company employs about 53,000 people and has an annual turnover of over €20 billion.

- Chinese crypto journalist and analyst Willie Woo argues that bitcoin is not ready for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs at the moment. Woo identified three factors that hinder the rise in price of the first cryptocurrency.
The first factor is bitcoin's high speculative activity. Woo argues that while long-term investors continue to accumulate cryptocurrency, a large number of positions are being opened for short-term speculative purposes.
Another factor that can hold bitcoin back is the launch of the first US exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on bitcoin futures. According to Woo, most institutional investors prefer to buy fund stocks and futures at the moment instead of buying the coin itself.
Recall that the first US exchange-traded fund based on bitcoin futures began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 19. Its assets exceeded $1 billion two days after the start of trading. Thus, the fund broke the record growth rate to $1 billion, which was held for 18 years.
The third factor is the overly optimistic sentiment of investors who are confident in the further growth of bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. “Whenever most investors are bullish, it is very difficult for the price to go up because there are a lot of speculative longs in the markets,” Woo explains.

- An undisclosed crypto investor bought 2.2 thousand BTC coins in October 2013, spending about $330 thousand. And so, he withdrew cryptocurrency from his wallet, which had been inactive for eight years, on this November 10. The investments of the crypto investor have increased 455 times during this time, and the value of the asset has been almost $150 million.

- it was a few months ago that there started to sound predictions that the price of bitcoin could soar to $100,000 by December. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone was an active supporter of this scenario. This analyst is known for having previously accurately predicted a repeat of the BTC run three years ago and a rise in quotes to $20,000 by the end of 2020.
However, there are skeptics among the experts. “We won't get $100,000 or $150,000 in this Q4 or next Q1,” says popular crypto analyst Nicholas Merten. “I'm sorry, but I'll have to say that. I think that many experts are mistaken. Bitcoin is aiming for growth, but we will only see around $100,000 or $150,000 by the fall of next year.”

- The authorities of Miami (USA) have decided to distribute $21 million in cryptocurrency to residents of the city. Thus, each of the 442,000 Miami residents will receive approximately 0.0007 BTC, which is about $47.
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez explained that he decided to take such a step in order to familiarize citizens with the concept of bitcoin. According to him, creating digital wallets for every resident is a rather laborious technical task, but he hopes for the help of cryptocurrency exchanges. After that, a digital registration system will be created to reduce the likelihood of fraud.
In addition, Francis Suarez stated in an interview with Bloomberg that one of the priorities for the city is the ability to pay civil servants their salaries in bitcoin.


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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 22 - 26, 2021


EUR/USD: Closer to Parity

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We made a short equation in the title of the previous review on the EUR/USD pair: “Inflation growth = USD growth”, and last week's events confirmed its fairness. Strong data on retail sales in the US, released on Tuesday, November 16, allowed the dollar to rally again, and the USD DXY index to return to the values of one and a half years ago and renew the highs of 2021. With the forecast of 1.4%, retail sales in October increased by 1.7% (the growth was twice less in September, 0.8%). The retail control group indicator went up as well, showing an increase in October by 1.6% (forecast 0.9%, growth a month earlier - 0.5%). Recall that this indicator represents the volume of retail trade in the entire industry and is used to calculate the chain price index for most goods.

Investors were also pleased with the data on industrial production and the housing market in the United States. As a result, the EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1263 on Wednesday, November 17.

It is clear that in the current situation the market is most interested in how this or that macro statistics will affect the rate of curtailing monetary stimulus (QE) and the rise in interest rates by central banks.

Thus, the data published last week gave investors another argument in favor of an earlier rate increase by the US Federal Reserve. According to John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the country's economy is recovering at a steady pace, the US has a huge growth in employment, and unemployment is falling very quickly. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also added fuel to the fire when he said that the Fed should become more aggressive. If it accelerates the pace of QE reduction to $30 billion a month, this could provide an opportunity for raising rates in Q1 2022. Another "hawk", the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Rafael Bostic, believes that the Fed may start increasing rates in the middle of next year. And even such a famous “dove” as Chicago Fed President Charles Evans agreed that “raising rates in 2022 may be appropriate.”

As for analysts, Bank of America believes that rising prices and wages will push the US central bank to raise the federal funds rate in the summer of 2022, and maybe even earlier. The most conservative aggregate forecast is given by Reuters experts. According to them, the rate will rise for the first time in the Q4 2022, followed by two more increases, in Q1 and Q2 2023, as a result of which it will reach 1.25-1.5% by the end of the year.

Unlike the United States with its economic growth, things are not at all so rosy in the Eurozone with its energy crisis and the impending economic war with Great Britain. The preliminary data on GDP of the Eurozone for the Q3 published on Tuesday, November 16, showed the absence of even minimal growth. Well, at least there's no fall.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said speaking to the European Parliament that the increase in interest rates in 2022 does not correspond to the plans of her bank, since the conditions for monetary restriction will not be implemented in the coming year. According to the regulator, tightening monetary policy in such a situation will do more harm than good.

The euro weakened not only against the dollar, but also against other currencies after such statements by the head of the ECB. Great Britain helped the European currency a little. A record rise in inflation in this country pushed the GBP/USD pair up, and it pulled EUR/USD along with it. Two more factors also played into the hands of the euro. The first is the 66th update by the S&P 500 of its all-time high for this year. The second one is the possible resignation of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the appointment of Lael Brainard, who is considered to support a softer monetary policy, in his place.

A number of investors, influenced by the above factors, decided to take profit on short positions. But this only briefly helped the European currency. Having risen to 1.1373, the EUR/USD pair turned around and continued its southward movement, updated the local low at 1.1250 and closed the trading session at 1.1288.

If we translate what is happening on both sides of the Atlantic into the language of the military, then things have not yet come to real military clashes: neither side has yet raised the interest rate. The matter is limited to the maneuvers and statements of the chiefs of the "general staffs", that is, of the Central Banks. Although, of course, divergences in economic growth, as well as in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB, are likely to push the EUR/USD pair further down. Moreover, there is still room for it to fall. Recall that the quotes were at the level of 1.0635 in March 2020, 1.0352 in December 2016, and the pair was even below the parity line at 0.8225 in October 2000.

Indicators at D1 confirm the bearish forecast, pointing south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same can be said about oscillators, although 15% of them are in the oversold zone.

35% of experts vote for the correction and growth of the pair in the short term, 50% vote for its further fall, and 15% expect a sideways movement. Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1315, 1.1360, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1250, then 1.1175 and 1.1075-1.1100, then 100 points lower.

As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, preliminary data on business activity (Markit) in Germany and the Eurozone will be released on Tuesday, November 23. And the volumes of orders for capital and durable goods in the United States, as well as preliminary data on US GDP for the third quarter, will become known the next day. And finally, the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee (FOMC) will be published on Thursday, November 25, from which investors will try to understand how strong the "hawkish" attitude among the leadership of this regulator is.

GBP/USD: Awaiting the Rate Hike on the Pound

As mentioned above, inflation in Britain hit 4.2%: the highest level since 2011 (it was 3.1% in September). The jump came amid rising energy prices and worsening supply problems. However, the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed an increase of 3.4% (2.9% a month earlier). According to many economists, consumer prices will continue to rise further in the coming months.

The released statistics increased the likelihood that the Bank of England will decide to raise the interest rate on the pound this December. This contributed to the rebound of the GBP/USD pair from November 12 low of 1.3352, to which it fell after the US recorded its highest growth in 30 years inflationary pressure.

In general, the macroeconomic statistics of the United Kingdom looked quite optimistic last week, supporting the pound.

It became known last Tuesday that the number of jobs in the country increased by 160K in October. This figure is especially important against the background of the fact that the state program for subsidizing wages, which was in force during the COVID-19 pandemic, was completely phased out in September. Many experts expected employers to start cutting jobs after the end of support. However, this did not happen and the labor market, on the contrary, continues to recover. The UK unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in the Q3.

Recall that the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, speaking of curbing inflation on November 4, did not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates more quickly than planned. And now the published indicators allowed the bulls to seize the initiative and raise the pair to a height of 1.3513 on Thursday, November 18. However, this was followed by a rebound, and it completed the five-day period at 1.3444.

If the key rate for the pound increases in December, we can expect the GBP/USD pair to grow to the 1.3800-1.3900 zone. However, while this has not happened, most analysts (75%) expect the pair to fall further. Only 25% bet on a quick victory for the bulls.

As for the oscillators on D1, 80% are red, 10% are green and 10% are neutral gray. Trend indicators are still 100% red. Support levels are 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

As for the macro statistics for the coming week, it is worth noting the publication of the UK Services Business Activity Index (PMI) on Tuesday November 23. This indicator, published by the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply in conjunction with Markit Economics, is an indicator of the economic situation in the field of sales and employment in this sector. However, it is not as important as the country's manufacturing PMI

USD/JPY: Still East

While the US Federal Reserve cuts monetary stimulus, the ECB has frozen QE at the previous level, the Japanese government announced an unprecedented program of economic stimulus for the total 55.7 trillion yen ($487 billion) on Friday November 19. Tokyo hopes that this measure will increase the country's GDP by 5.6%. As stated, the Bank of Japan will pursue an appropriate monetary policy, closely monitoring market movements and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy.

“We hope that the Bank of Japan is clearly aware of the urgency of the measures and continues to coordinate closely with the government to achieve a proper mix of fiscal and monetary policy,” the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan said in a statement.

In what way did the USD/JPY pair react to this event? well, actually... in no way. A safe harbor should remain calm no matter what.

In general, the dynamics of the pair fully followed the forecast given the previous week. Most analysts expected the pair to rise, break through the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel and try to update multi-year highs. This is exactly what happened: the pair was noted at a height of 114.96 on November 17. However, then the strength of the bulls dried up, and the pair returned to the mid-term trading range, putting the last chord in its central part, at the level of 114.00.

Given the ultra-soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expansion of control over the yield curve, it is highly likely that the weakening of the yen and the growth of the pair will continue. And that USD/JPY will not only reach the 115.00-116.00 range, but will also consolidate there, updating the 2017 highs. Of course, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates as well as the yield of American treasuries will also affect the dynamics.

As a result of the backward movement that the pair demonstrated last week, the oscillators on D1 are completely confused: 20% of them point north, 40% - south and 40% - east. There is no unity among trend indicators either: 60% look up, 40% - on the contrary, down.

The picture is similar among analysts. 40% of them expect the growth of the pair, the same amount expect its fall, and the remaining 20% just shrug their shoulders. The resistance levels are 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.40, then 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Where Will Bitcoin Fall and Rise?

Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $68,917 on Wednesday, November 10. Ethereum also set a record, rising to $4,856. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.972 trillion. At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 84, being in the Extreme Greed zone, which indicated that the main cryptocurrency was strongly overbought and the need for a correction that was not long in coming.

We cited the opinion of specialists from the Kraken crypto exchange in the previous review, according to which if the current growth of bitcoin stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction of up to 20% can be expected. That is, the BTC/USD pair may fall to $55,000.

The cryptocurrency analyst Altcoin Sherpa called the same figure. Another well-known journalist and expert, Willy Woo, cited a wider range from $50,000 to $60,000 as a reliable support.

In addition, Willie Woo argues that bitcoin is not ready for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs at the moment. Woo identified three factors that hinder the rise in price of the main cryptocurrency.

The first factor is bitcoin's high speculative activity. Woo argues that while long-term investors continue to accumulate cryptocurrency, a large number of positions are being opened for short-term speculative purposes.

Another factor that can hold bitcoin back is the launch of the first US exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on bitcoin futures. According to Woo, most institutional investors prefer to buy fund stocks and futures at the moment instead of buying the coin itself.

Recall that the first US exchange-traded fund based on bitcoin futures began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 19. Its assets exceeded $1 billion two days after the start of trading. Thus, the fund broke the record growth rate to $1 billion, which was held for 18 years.

The third factor is the overly optimistic sentiment of investors who are confident in the further growth of bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. “Whenever most investors are bullish, it is very difficult for the price to go up because there are a lot of speculative longs in the markets,” Woo explains.

Analyst Nicholas Merten is also skeptical about the near future of the flagship cryptocurrency. “We won't get $100,000 or $150,000 in this Q4 or next Q1,” he says. “I'm sorry, but I'll have to say that. I think that many experts are mistaken. Bitcoin is aiming for growth, but we will only see around $100,000 or $150,000 by the fall of next year.”

At the time of writing the review, the BTC/USD pair is around $58,000, the local minimum was recorded on November 19 at $55,638. The total capitalization of the crypto market fell to $2.590 trillion. At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell by as much as 50 points, to 34, being in the zone of Fear.

The news background is neutral. More precisely, it is ambiguous. On the one hand, for example, the Bitcoin Taproot network was updated on November 14 - the first major change in functionality since 2017. The main cryptocurrency needs to become more efficient, scalable and confidential. On the other hand, US President Joe Biden signed a bill to upgrade the infrastructure. Depending on the interpretation of this document, it may turn out that miners, wallet developers, liquidity providers in DeFi-protocols and other players in the digital market may be required to report to the tax office. The crypto community is also concerned about another amendment to the infrastructure plan, which will oblige recipients of digital assets worth more than $10,000 to verify the sender's personal information.

No confidentiality!

A very good reason is needed for bitcoin to rise sharply again. And if it does not appear, the BTC/USD pair has many chances to stay stuck for a long time in the zone $50,000 to $60,000, sagging from the maximum by 15-30%. However, the current drawdown does not prevent many crypto enthusiasts from maintaining remarkable optimism.

Thus, Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital investment company, is confident that bitcoin will “easily” reach the price of $500,000. He gave such a forecast, referring to the limited emission of the first cryptocurrency and the potential number of wealthy investors. He noted that according to JPMorgan, there are at least 49 million dollar millionaires, but the supply of digital gold is limited to 21 million coins. “You don’t have enough bitcoins for every millionaire in our society to have at least one coin,” Scaramucci said.

In his opinion, the current price level is still an early opportunity to enter the asset, and the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach the specified $500,000 mark by the end of 2024 or mid-2025. However, this requires that Ark Invest's forecast come true, according to which the number of bitcoin wallets should reach 1 billion by this time.

***

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Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week

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- Latvian law enforcement officers detained a suspect in creating a fraudulent cryptocurrency project, who disappeared with €500,000 stolen from deceived customers. According to the police, the detainee is the creator of the Hodlife project and the token of the same name and operated from Spain. He promoted the fraudulent platform on social media, promising quick profits, and he made an exit scam last June and disappeared with investors' money. According to preliminary estimates, more than a thousand investors have suffered.
The stolen funds were laundered through mixing services, but Interpol employees were able to establish a link between different wallets and tracked the attacker.

- US Senator Cynthia Lummis criticized Hillary Clinton for concerns about cryptocurrencies. Earlier, during the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, former First Lady, Secretary of State in the Obama administration and participant of the presidential race in 2016, Mrs. Clinton said that cryptocurrencies can undermine the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Digital assets can also destabilize entire countries, she added.
“Great leaders are not afraid of the future. America could be a winner by adopting bitcoin as a hard currency that can be used to stabilize the dollar and reverse the tailspin that began in 1971,” Lammis wrote in response. She did not elaborate on how the first cryptocurrency should stabilize the dollar, but she did mention 1971. US President Richard Nixon completely abolished the gold standard then, transferring control of the money supply to the Fed. It is believed that this has made the economy more prone to inflation, allowing the printing of unsecured money.

- According to research by The Advisor Coach, Dogecoin is the most searched cryptocurrency in 23 US states. Bitcoin and ethereum are on the second (10 states) and third (eight) lines. The fourth place is a clone of Dogecoin, Shiba Inu.
Analysts explained Dogecoin's leadership by Elon Musk's attention to this asset. Tesla CEO invited users to vote for the option of accepting payments in Dogecoin back in May. Prior to this, the billionaire reported that SpaceX will launch the Doge-1 satellite to the moon in 2022. According to him, the mission is fully paid for with this meme cryptocurrency.
Dogecoin was worth $0.001353 on October 1, 2020. The price rose to $0.6311 per coin In May 2021, or 465 times. However, by the time of this writing on November 24, 2021, it has lost more than 65% in price, falling to $0.2172.

- Edward Snowden, a former NSA and CIA officer who asked for asylum in Russia, said that he treats dog-like tokens like Dogecoin or Shiba Inu badly. According to him, many take meme coins seriously and may suffer losses because of this.
Against the background of the growing popularity of such assets, fraudsters have become more active. The team behind Shiba Inu warned users about the spread of fake project groups on social networks.

- Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto should receive the Nobel Prize in Economics for inventing the first cryptocurrency. This initiative was made by Daniel Leon, co-founder and COO of the Celsius Network crypto platform. "This guy [Nakamoto] has brought hundreds of thousands of people more financial benefits than the bulk of economists in academia," Daniel Leon argued for his position.
He explained that before the advent of cryptocurrencies, people were forced to trust intermediaries, which are centralized institutions like banks and governments. With digital assets, this is no longer necessary. According to Daniel Leon, trusting the "code" rather than the middleman is easier and safer.
“When you lend money to your bank, it pays you 0.1%, but when you borrow, you pay 7.73%. Where is justice? To make matters worse, if a credit institution fails, the government bails it out. In the event of a failure of the government itself, it simply prints money: 30% of all dollars in circulation have been issued in the last 18 months,” COO Celsius Network said indignantly.

- Over a quarter of super-wealthy families around the world have already invested in cryptocurrencies. This is evidenced by the results of a survey of the British consulting company Campden Wealth, conducted among representatives of 385 family offices. The average capital managed by such offices is estimated at $1.6 billion.
31% of wealthy households in North America and 28% in Europe invest in cryptocurrencies, while this share is lower in the Asia-Pacific region, 19%. At the same time, the share of cryptocurrencies in the assets of billionaire families as a whole is still only 1%. Most of the respondents said that they plan to keep the volume of such investments at the current level next year, 28% are going to increase them, and only 4% are going to reduce them.

- A new report from analyst firm Glassnode showed that the market is not showing massive profit-taking. Analysts pointed out that the total supply of short-term bitcoin holders is at a multi-year low below 3 million BTC, which in turn means that the amount held by long-term holders is at a multi-year high. At the same time, they are only building up their positions. The total number of wallets with a non-zero BTC balance in the second half of November also reached an all-time high of 38.76 million.
The data obtained by Glassnode indicates that there are no signs of serious surrender, and that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have a rather long upward rally.

- CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also expressed a similar opinion to Glassnode. Despite the fact that bitcoin has been getting cheaper since the middle of last week, holders are in no rush to sell it. In parallel, there is a steady trend towards the withdrawal of cryptocurrency for autonomous storage. According to CryptoQuant, trading floors currently have the lowest amount of bitcoins since mid-2018.
Moreover, investors are withdrawing not only BTC, but also ethereum, which reduces the supply of the asset and eases the pressure on the market. In the long term, according to Ki Young Ju, this trend will drive the value of leading digital currencies upward.

- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again criticized the decision of the El Salvadorian authorities to recognize bitcoin as the official currency. “Given the high volatility of the bitcoin price,” the Fund said in a statement, “its use as legal tender carries risks for consumers and also threatens financial integrity and stability. Its use also gives rise to contingent fiscal liabilities,” the review says.
The IMF came to this opinion following the visit of its staff to El Salvador. Experts who visited the country recommended that the government of El Salvador "narrow the scope of the bitcoin law and strengthen the regulation and supervision of the new payment system."

- A well-known trader and analyst known as Credible argues that the current correction of bitcoin is a necessity to continue the bullish trend and rise above $70,000. According to the expert, the first cryptocurrency is in the phase of a healthy correction at the moment.
The bitcoin price may fall to $52,000-53,000 in the near future, where the “bottom” of the current correction is located, Credible predicts. According to him, the $69,000 mark that bitcoin reached on November 10 cannot be the top of the current bull market, as historically each subsequent cycle of growth has lasted longer than the previous one.

- Chief commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone believes that, despite the temporary correction in prices, BTC will grow in 2022. He said on his Twitter account that the asset is likely to face resistance at $100,000 and the $50,000 mark will act as a support level. “The level of adoption of this young technology/asset is increasing, and the supply volume is less and less, which indicates signs of maturation,” the expert explained his forecast.

- The CEO of the American investment management company ARK Invest Katie Wood confirmed her previous forecast for the price of bitcoin at $500,000, saying that this will be facilitated by the growth of institutional investments. Such a price will be achieved if institutional investors allocate 5% of their portfolios for bitcoin.

- Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment firm Galaxy Digital Holdings, said last week that gold "was just crushed by bitcoin." “I think gold was probably the best asset to own,” he added. "But bitcoin is simply the best version of storing value..."
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of another investment firm, Skybridge Capital, also expects bitcoin to "ultimately outshine gold." The price of this cryptocurrency, in his opinion, will easily reach $500,000, so one should invest in BTC right now. “I think bitcoin is likely to be ten times better than gold... I would not be surprised if bitcoin grows exponentially and gold grows in line," said Anthony Scaramucci.
Paul Tudor Jones, a legendary trader with a personal fortune of $4.6 billion and fund manager of the Tudor Investment Corporation, has also admitted recently that he prefers bitcoin over gold. In his opinion, BTC is an excellent alternative as a hedge against inflation in the current economic situation. “It is obvious that there is room for cryptocurrency,” the billionaire said. “At the moment, it is winning the race against gold... And I would prefer it.”


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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 29 - December 03, 2021


EUR/USD: Panic Named B.1.1.159

The past week can be divided into two parts: before and after Thanksgiving. Let us remind you that the day Thursday, November 25 was a day off in the United States. And since the lion's share of capital is controlled by banks and funds located in this country, the lull comes in financial markets around the world on this day.

So, what happened before November 25? And there was everything, as predicted by most experts. Divergence in the economic growth of the US and the EU, as well as in the monetary policy of the FRS and the ECB, the energy crisis in Europe continued to push the EUR/USD pair further down. The reanimation of the Brexit theme contributed to its fall. As a result, the pair reached a local bottom at 1.1185 on the evening of November 24. This was followed by holiday Thursday and… the markets woke up on Friday.

And they not just woke up but woke up panicked by the news that a new dangerous strain of coronavirus has been discovered in South Africa that may be insensitive to existing vaccines. WHO convened an urgent meeting, noting that almost 100 cases of infection with the new strain B.1.1.159, which has a "large number of mutations", have already been recorded.

Against the backdrop of this alarming news, investors' expectations for an early increase in the Fed's interest rate went down, and pessimism, on the contrary, rose. According to experts from CME Group, if the likelihood that the rate will remain unchanged until June 2022 was 18% on Thursday, it rose to 34% on Friday.

Compared to November 24, the yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped by almost 10%. Stock indices and cryptocurrency quotes flew down. The markets began to run away from risks. Investor panic and falling US Treasury yields helped EUR/USD bulls to raise the pair to 1.1321, where it ended the working week.

In fact, it is difficult to predict to which of the American or European economies the new wave of coronavirus may do more harm. According to ING Group analysts, it is now important to understand whether the new COVID strain has already reached Europe (which is geographically closer to Africa). This could further worsen sentiment in the Eurozone and put pressure on the euro.

The difference in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB will undoubtedly continue to influence the behavior of the EUR/USD pair. Several representatives of the European regulator have recently made it clear that the central bank intends to complete the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) in March 2022. The pair barely reacted to these comments. But the meeting of the ECB Governing Council on December 2, dedicated to monetary policy, may become the main event of the coming week. Markets expect not just words and hints, but specific decisions on the timing of the completion of the emergency PEPP program and adjusting the volumes of the main Asset Purchase Program (APP), QE analogue. Moreover, the volume of APP can be increased to compensate for the folding of PEPP. It is also possible that the regulator will raise inflation forecasts for 2021-2023.

It is logical to assume that the Fed's hawkish policy and the dovish policy of the ECB will continue to push the EUR/USD pair south in the coming months. Goldman Sachs experts predict that the key USD rate will rise in June, September and December 2022, and the Fed will increase the volume of QE reduction to $30 billion per month starting from January. The rate may be raised twice more in 2023 and will reach 1.5%. The ECB, on the other hand, plans for 2023 to take only the first step. Until then, it will be easy to watch record price growth in the Eurozone countries.

However, it is possible that the December 02 meeting of the Governing Council of the European regulator will bring investors some hawkish surprises. Therefore, the most cautious of them will begin to close short positions in advance, fixing profits, which in the short term will lead to further growth in EUR/USD.

35% of experts who vote for the growth of this pair in the coming week agree with this development. The opposite position is taken by 55% of analysts who believe that the ECB will not make any significant changes to its monetary policy now. The remaining 10% vote for the sideways trend.

Indicators on D1 have a predominantly red color. There are 75% of them both among oscillators and among trend indicators. As for the oscillators, 15% give signals that the pair is oversold, and another 10% have taken a neutral-gray position. As for trend indicators, 25% changed from red to green by the end of the week.

Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1300-1.1315, 1.1360, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1300, then 1.1230, 1.1185-1.1200, then 1.1075-1.1100.

As for the events of the coming week, apart from the ECB meeting, the publication of numerous statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the Eurozone should be noted. These data will be released on November 29 and 30, December 01 and 03. As for the US, we are expecting a speech by the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who held this post for a second term, on Tuesday, November 30, the ADP report on the level of employment in the US private sector and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published on Wednesday December 01. And investors traditionally wait for data from the American labor market on the first Friday of the month, including such an important indicator as the NFP: the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector.

GBP/USD: Pound Rescue Is in the Rate Growth

The GBP/USD pair also followed the forecast of the overwhelming majority (75%) of experts until Friday, November 26, falling to 1.3275, the lowest point for the last 5 months. The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3350.

Concerns about Brexit remain the main factor of pressure on the pound. Lord David Frost, the UK minister responsible for implementing the EU deal, said that while there was a desire to find a negotiated solution to the Northern Ireland problem, the gap between the positions of the UK and the EU was very large. The British Government is therefore prepared to use article 16.

As a reminder, the Northern Ireland Protocol was signed two years ago as part of the treaty on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. According to London's statements, it was precisely because of the shortcomings in this document that the country faced supply disruptions and a shortage of goods. For this reason, the British government offered Brussels a new version of the protocol, which European officials saw with hostility.

As for article 16 of the current document, it allows either party to unilaterally take "protective measures" in the event that the protocol leads to "serious economic, social or environmental problems" that persist for a long time.

Fears about a new strain of COVID, which caused investors to flee from risks, are also unlikely to help the British currency. Yes, the GBP/USD pair grew slightly on Friday due to the general weakening of the dollar (the USD DXY index fell to 96.037). But the pound has long been considered a riskier asset than the dollar. And expectations about the increase in interest rates were revised by the market not only in relation to the American, but also the British currency.

Threats of recession and stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, are very dangerous for the British economy. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022.

These are very high rates, and shortly before the meeting of the Bank of England on November 4, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to raise interest rates more quickly than planned. The markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November, and... they were deceived. The Bank of England did not raise the rate, and the GBP/USD pair went further down. And Andrew Bailey told disappointed investors that "we never promised a November rate hike" and that "it's not my job to rule the markets."

Now, in addition to all other worries, there are also concerns about a new wave of the pandemic and the impact of the B.1.1.159 strain on the country's economy. And we are talking about raising the Bank of England rate not in November, but in December. And this is not at all great: while the probability of a rate hike by 15 basis points was estimated at 75% on Wednesday, November 24, then it fell to 55% two days later.

If, following the results of the December meeting, the British regulator still raises the rate, this will push the GBP/USD pair up. 70% of analysts hope so. As for the next week, their opinions are divided equally: 50% expect growth from the pair, 50% expect a fall.

But the indicators on D1 clearly support the bears. 100% of trend indicators point to the south. The same could be said about the oscillators, but 15% of them have reached the oversold zone.

Support levels are 1.3300, 1.3275, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

The head of the Bank of England will make a speech on Wednesday, December 01. Investors hope that Andrew Bailey will clarify the situation with what the future monetary policy of this regulator will be.

USD/JPY: Who Benefits from COVID: Yen Takes Revenge

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What is bad for risky assets, is good for the yen. This immutable rule worked this time too. The Japanese currency gained 230 pips in just one day, dropping the USD/JPY pair to 113.043. True, it once again renewed its multi-year highs two days earlier, on November 24, reaching a height of 15.514. The pair bulls were hoping this stellar rally would continue. But this didn't happen. We can only guess how many Stop-loss orders were knocked out after such a rapid reversal.

“This is a typical scenario: the flight of investors to the quality of the yen and the Swiss franc due to a new strain of the virus,” analysts from Societe Generale explained the incident.

The USD/JPY pair completed the trading session at 113.112. And now there is an intrigue: whether it will return to the trading range 113.40-114.40 or continue falling.

There are slightly more supporters of further movement to the south among experts, 55%. The remaining 45% expect at least a correction in this direction if not returning to a full-fledged upward trend. The indicators do not have even the slightest hint of unity either. As for the oscillators, 25% are colored green, 40% are red, 20% give signals that the pair is oversold, and 15% have taken a neutral position. The trend indicators have the same discord: 50% of them point to the north, the same amount - to the south.

Resistance levels are 113.40, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.00, then 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65.

As for macroeconomic statistics, retail sales data are due Monday November 29, followed by labor market and industrial production data in Japan the next day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Nobel Prize for Satoshi Nakamoto

We cited the opinion of specialists from the Kraken crypto exchange two weeks ago, according to which the BTC/USD pair could fall to $55,000. The cryptocurrency analyst Altsoin Sherpa called the same figure, $55,000. Another well-known journalist and expert, Willy Woo, cited a wider range from $50,000 to $60,000 as a reliable support. In addition, according to Willie Woo, bitcoin is not yet ripe for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs.

Now, after a while, we can say that all these experts were generally right: the main cryptocurrency was moving, relying on support in around $55,500 and fixing the local maximum at $60.030 for all the following days, until Friday, November 26. And there was a panic in the markets on Friday. Frightened by the new strain of COVID, investors began to get rid of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The total capitalization of the crypto market fell to $2.460 trillion ($2.590 trillion a week ago). And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen from the fear zone to the center of the scale, up to 47 points. The BTC/USD pair was trading in the $54,350 zone at the time of this writing, on the evening of November 26, having found a local bottom at $53,600 before that.

A report by analyst firm Glassnode (which was released before November 26) showed that the market is not showing massive profit-taking. Analysts point out that the total supply of short-term bitcoin holders is at a multi-year low below 3 million BTC. This, in turn, means that the amount held by long-term holders is at a multi-year high. At the same time, they are constantly building up their positions. The total number of wallets with a non-zero BTC balance in the second half of November also reached an all-time high of 38.76 million.

The data obtained by Glassnode indicates that there are no signs of serious surrender, and that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have a rather long upward rally.

A similar opinion to Glassnode was expressed by the CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju. Despite the fact that bitcoin has been getting cheaper since the middle of last week, holders are in no rush to sell it. In parallel, there is a steady trend towards the withdrawal of cryptocurrency for autonomous storage. According to CryptoQuant, trading floors currently have the lowest amount of bitcoins since mid-2018.

Moreover, investors are withdrawing not only BTC, but also ethereum, which reduces the supply of the asset and eases the pressure on the market. In the long term, according to Ki Young Ju, this trend will drive the value of leading digital currencies upward.

A well-known trader and analyst known as Credible argues that the current correction of bitcoin is a necessity to continue the bullish trend and rise above $70,000. According to the expert, the first cryptocurrency is in the phase of a healthy correction at the moment.

The bitcoin price may fall to $52,000-53,000 in the near future, where the bottom of the current correction is located, Credible predicts. According to him, the $69,000 mark that bitcoin reached on November 10 cannot be the top of the current bull market, as historically each subsequent cycle of growth has lasted longer than the previous one.

Chief commodity strategist of Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone, as well as Willy Woo, believes that the main support is slightly lower, at $50,000. At the same time, according to the expert, bitcoin will continue to grow in 2022, where it will face strong resistance around $100,000.

Founder of Skybridge Capital investment company Anthony Scaramucci expects that the flagship cryptocurrency “will eventually eclipse gold”, and its price will easily reach $500,000. “I think bitcoin is likely to be ten times better than gold... I would not be surprised if bitcoin grows exponentially and gold grows in line," said Anthony Scaramucci.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment firm Galaxy Digital Holdings, echoed him saying that gold "was just crushed by bitcoin."

The same target level for BTC, $500,000 was named by the CEO of ARK Invest Katie Wood, confirming her previous forecast. True, at the same time, she made a reservation that such a price could be achieved provided that institutional investors allocate 5% of their portfolios for bitcoin.

So far, 5% is out of the question. Indeed, the interest in digital assets among big business representatives is growing. So, over a quarter of super-wealthy families around the world have already invested in cryptocurrencies. This is evidenced by the results of a survey of the British consulting company Campden Wealth, conducted among representatives of 385 family offices. The average capital managed by such offices is estimated at $1.6 billion.

31% of wealthy households in North America and 28% in Europe invest in cryptocurrencies, while this share is lower in the Asia-Pacific region, 19%. But at the same time, the share of cryptocurrencies in the portfolios of billionaire families is on average only 1%. The majority of those surveyed (68%) said they plan to keep the volume of crypto investments at the current level next year, 28% are going to increase them, and only 4% are going to reduce them.

And at the end of the review, news for Satoshi Nakamoto fans. According to Daniel Leon, COO of the crypto platform Celsius Network, the creator of bitcoin should receive the Nobel Prize in Economics for this invention. "This guy [Nakamoto] has brought hundreds of thousands of people more financial benefits than the bulk of economists in academia," said Daniel Leon.

Now the little thing to do is to find out if Nakamoto really existed. After all, the Nobel Committee is unlikely to decide to reward a person who has never existed...

***

Clients of the brokerage company NordFX continue to accumulate lottery tickets: the New Year's draw of this Super Lottery will take place soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000.

This money will be useful to you, won't it?

It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week

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- Police in the Spanish city of Tarragona arrested a 33-year-old man and a woman who installed hidden miners on computers in stores. The undisclosed criminals have infected at least 16 devices in electronics retailers Mediamarkt and El Corte Ingles department stores.
According to available information, the woman distracted employees and asked for help to start the laptop, which she allegedly bought in their store. Meanwhile, her companion was installing the Nicehash miner and the Anydesk program for remote access to computers on display sample laptops.
The new laptops running at full capacity have raised suspicion among consultants. Mediamarkt's CCTV cameras filmed the accomplices visiting the store three times, and the police were able to identify them from the video.

- Investors should take advantage of the latest correction in the digital asset market to build up their positions. This was stated by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former director of communications in the Donald Trump administration. He noted that not only fundamental factors, but also the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, indicate the further growth of cryptocurrency quotes.
“If you believe in long-term fundamentals like we do, then now is the time to buy. I just think that the risk is decreasing in the current situation. The volatility of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is knocking people out of the game. It also washes away some of the leverage, which, in my opinion, creates a springboard for a good first quarter,” the financier explained. Scaramucci stressed that he considers the market reaction "healthy". He called what happened “healing bloodletting”.

- The bitcoin network has processed more US dollar transactions than PayPal since the beginning of 2021. This is stated in a report by Blockdata. The average quarterly for the decentralized network was $489 billion, while PayPal had $302 billion. However, both of these figures are inferior to the average quarterly volumes of such giants as Mastercard and Visa ($1.8 trillion and $3.2 trillion, respectively).
“It is impressive how bitcoin, being a 12-year-old P2P network, has 27% compared to Mastercard, a company founded in 1966,” Blockdata experts noted. At the same time, in their opinion, the bitcoin network is "fundamentally" different from Mastercard and Visa. It is more of a "saving technology" than a "spending" and has more options for use.
Experts believe it is realistic that the cryptocurrency will surpass financial giants as for the volume of transferable value at some point. But to do that, it needs to bridge the bandwidth gap, which they called "staggering."

- Option traders are betting on bitcoin decline for six months for the first time since May. As noted by the CoinDesk portal, this situation does not necessarily imply a long-term market decline. The six-month expected volatility is now at historical averages, so options with more distant expiration are relatively inexpensive. Traders can buy put options in the hope of large profits for a small investment if the decline does occur. There is one more explanation for what is happening. It lies in the fact that traders are trying to protect their long positions in the spot market.
The price ratio for weekly, monthly and three-month contracts also shifted to the “bears” earlier this month. “Demand is particularly strong for puts with a strike price of $50,000,” the trading firm Paradigm noted.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett believes December could be the month of a rally in the cryptocurrency market, with Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) potentially leading it.
According to the expert, the dollar index (DXY), which compares the dollar to a basket of other fiat currencies, could face a downward momentum and give a bullish signal for the crypto market. In addition, Bennett uses a chart of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization (TOTAL). According to him, TOTAL is approaching the completion of the big bullish falling wedge. He also noted the discrepancy between the growing Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the downward exchange rate movement. A rising RSI during a downtrend is often interpreted as a hint of a bullish reversal.

- Imperial Arts French Art Gallery organizes the first ever auction of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) related to personal property owned by Napoleon Bonaparte. The unique auction is held to commemorate the bicentennial of the death of Napoleon I.
The auction will feature: Napoleon's cane from St. Helena, a golden snuffbox, a handwritten letter from Napoleon I to General Bertrand, an official imperial bust of the Empire, a miniature Bonaparte portrait and ivory painting in bronze case depicting Napoleon in the form of Colonel Garde chasseurs a cheval.

- Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, believes that owning bitcoin and other crypto assets is a way to avoid rampant inflation. In a new interview with CNBC, the head of the investment firm called BTC an "ideal" savings asset in a world where governments are in a race to devalue their currency.
According to the financier, it's not that bitcoin is getting better over fiat currencies. They are getting worse than bitcoin. “There is a global race to the bottom,” says Martin Yusko.
In his opinion, investors should not be fooled by day-to-day fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, which do not necessarily reflect its true value. In the next few months, Yusko said, macroeconomic conditions could become "unstable" and owning BTC would be an advantage.

- 86% of hacked accounts on the Google Cloud platform are their further use for mining, Cybersecurity Action Team experts said. The software needed to do this was loaded on average 22 seconds after the hack. In many cases, attackers gained access to accounts due to poor protection from the users themselves, analysts noted.

- Bitcoin was down $53,360 this week in response to declines in stock indices and commodity futures. The situation is caused by the emergence of a new strain of the Omicron coronavirus. Nigel Green, CEO of the consulting company deVere Group, believes that investors should buy bitcoin right now, during the correction, as its rate will double in a year.
“Panic is the right time to buy BTC,” says Green. He also suggested that concerns about the spread of Omicron will be short-lived, and investors will again focus on rising inflation.

- According to cryptanalyst and trader Benjamin Cowen, the value of bitcoin will not fall below $50,000. That is, within the framework of the current correction, the fall of the first cryptocurrency will not exceed 25% of the historical maximum set on November 10. A similar situation occurred in September, when bitcoin was correcting after reaching $52,000. Then the value of the asset dropped by 23%, after which the coin returned to growth.
Cowen added that the support line for the current bullish trend passes at the $51,000 level. Even if it falls to this level, it is highly likely that the price of the cryptocurrency will push off from this level and begin to rise. At the same time, the specialist admitted that false breakouts of this level could occur.

- Crypto strategist known as Smart Contracter believes that bitcoin is almost ready for a recovery. Smart Contracter uses the Elliott Wave Theory, which predicts the future movement of the rate based on the psychology of market participants, which is manifested in the form of waves. According to his calculations, BTC has completed a 5-wave correction movement and is now ready for a new round of growth.
“There are no signs of an immediate reversal yet, but I believe we have seen the final volumes of surrender. In my opinion, in the case of a worst-case scenario, the BTC rate should rebound sharply to $63,000. The most positive scenario is a new historical maximum,” the expert said.

- The subscribers of the well-known analyst known as PlanB, the creator of the S2F forecasting model, agreed with the opinion that the main cryptocurrency will be able to continue to grow. About 80% of survey participants believe that the maximum recorded on November 10, 2021, around $69,000 is not the limit. According to PlanB, the coin is expected to break through the $100,000 level by the end of the year. However, most of the community members name the $75,000 mark. Ethereum, they believe, is able to rise in price to $7,500 over the same period of time.


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Results of November 2021: British Pound is "Favorite" Again

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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in November 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

- The leader by the end of the month was a trader from India, account No. 1596XXX, who earned USD 207,329 during the month. Such a solid profit was made on transactions with a variety of currency pairs, primarily with the British pound: GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. Other trading instruments of the leader include EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, and AUD/JPY.

- A client from Vietnam, account No. 1416XXX, occupied the bottom line with a result of 37,116 USD in the October TOP-3. A month later, in November, they improved their result more than four times, and climbed to the second step of the podium with a profit of 153,572 USD.

- The third place is taken by a trader from India, account No. 1560XXX, whose profit was obtained from transactions with GBP/USD and amounted to 56,254 USD.

The passive investment services:

- Two signals are currently highlighted in CopyTrading: USD Trading and GFS_FX. The first of them showed an increase of 408% in 43 days of life. 100% of transactions were conducted with the GBP/USD pair, which is favorite of many traders. Such a high result achieved in such a short period can attract many investors. However, the maximum drawdown of 47% indicates the need to be as careful as possible.

As for the second signal, GFS_FX, it looks less aggressive. It exists for a little more than six months (196 days) and brought a profit of 135% during this period. The bulk of transactions (more than 70%) is also related to the British pound: these are the GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, and GBP/JPY pairs. The maximum drawdown was 34%, so those wishing to subscribe to it should also be very careful.

The lifespan of these signals is rather short and is calculated in months. But, of course, there are long livers in the CopyTrading service. For example, signal MF989923. It has existed for about 7 years, and as a result, it showed an increase of 515%. The signal had serious drawdowns several times during this time, reaching 66%. However, this happened a long time ago for the last time, in March 2020. But trading has since become much less aggressive and less profitable.

- KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account in 10 months with a fairly moderate drawdown, less than 16%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:

- the first position is still held by a partner from Vietnam, account No. 1258XXX, whose commission in November amounted to USD 8,447;
- the next, with a slight lag, is also a representative of Vietnam, account No. 1371XXX, with a result of 7, 225 USD;
- and, finally, the third step of the podium is taken by a partner from India, account No. 1504XXX, who received 6,523 USD as a commission.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 06 - 10, 2021


EUR/USD: Employment and Inflation Decide Everything

Markets are now ruled by two factors: fear of the new COVID strain and monetary tightening by central banks. It is not yet very clear how dangerous the Omicron strain is and how it will affect the economy. Therefore, the main focus is shifting towards central banks and, first of all, the US Federal Reserve. Thus, 19 Reuters experts have named the difference in interest rates as the main market driver, while 15 have pointed to Omicron.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in the US Senate on November 30 had a bombshell effect on the markets. And all because analysts and commentators saw a harsh hawkish attitude in his words. As a result, stock indices, Dow Jones, S&P500, Nasdaq, flew further down, while the DXY dollar index rushed up.

The dollar played back 147 points against the euro in less than an hour, lowering the EUR/USD pair from 1.1382 to 1.1235. However, then the markets calmed down as quickly and, in anticipation of data from the US labor market, the pair went up.

Inflation and employment: these two indicators are defining in the current policy of central banks.

The ECB continues to insist that the increase in inflation is temporary, so it makes no sense to take measures to contain it now. Although some people believe that the Bank's Governor Christine Lagarde's speech on December 02 hinted at an imminent tightening of monetary policy, however, nothing was said about specific steps. Although it would be possible to tackle this problem already. The data on producer prices released last week look frightening: their growth rates accelerated from 16.1% to 21.9% (against the forecast of 18.3%). These figures indicate that inflation in the Eurozone, which has already reached 4.9%, will not stop there and will continue to grow. As for the European labor market, the progress here is more than modest: unemployment fell by only 0.1%, from 7.4% to 7.3%.

Statistics from the US labor market look much better. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose less than expected: to 222 thousand against the forecast of 245 thousand, and the four-week moving average of the indicator fell to the lows of March 2020. At the same time, the number of people receiving benefits for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic fell below 2 million, to 1,956 thousand.

But the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) was only 210 thousand, which is significantly less than both the forecast (550 thousand) and the previous value (546 thousand). However, this fall does not look so dramatic against the background of the country's labor shortage. Suffice it to say that, due to a shortage of personnel, the number of laid-off people in the United States dropped to a 28-year low.

The unexpectedly low NFP data is unlikely to have a strong impact on the Fed's decisions. There are many reasons to believe that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of curtailing the monetary stimulus (QE) program at its meeting on December 14-15. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and her colleagues Mary Daley of San Francisco and Rafael Bostic of Atlanta actively support the idea of accelerating this process. And Randal Quarles, outgoing vice chairman of the Fed, considers such fiscal and monetary incentives harmful to the economy. In his opinion, they have inflated demand so much that it has exceeded the pre-pandemic level, and the high inflation is no longer temporary, but permanent.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also believe that the time has come to drop the word "temporary". This means that the inflation forecast will be revised upwards, and the schedule for raising interest rates will become more intense.

Most likely, the difference in monetary policy between the Fed and the ECB will continue to put pressure on the EUR/USD pair, pushing it further down. 50% of experts agree with this forecast, while 35% of analysts have taken the opposite position. The remaining 15% vote for the sideways trend.

The trend indicators on D1 have a predominantly red color, these are 65%. But there is confusion and disparity among the oscillators: 40% of them point to the south, 35% to the north and another 25% have taken a neutral position.

Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1380, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1260, then 1.1235, 1.1185-1.1200, then 1.1075-1.1100.

As for the events of the coming week, it should be noted that the data on GDP of the Eurozone for the Q3 will be issued. Increased volatility can be expected on Friday, December 10, when the German and US CPIs, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will become known. This indicator is an indicator of the US consumers’ confidence in economic growth and assesses their willingness to spend money.

GBP/USD: Back on the Bear Trail?

The behavior of the GBP/USD pair last week was similar to that of EUR/USD. It reacted similarly to Jerome Powell's speech in the Senate and to data from the US labor market, and as a result it ended the five-day week at 1.3225.

Concerns about Brexit remain the main factor of pressure on the pound. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said on December 03 that there are still significant differences between the EU and the UK on the application of the Northern Ireland Protocol. The politician added that there was no breakthrough in the negotiations, and that these differences are unlikely to be overcome before the end of this year.

The GBP/USD pair failed to gain a foothold above the 1.3300 horizon. According to analysts at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB), the British currency may continue to decline in December, although it will be difficult for it to overcome strong support at 1.3195 (November 30 low). If successful, the pair will open the way to support at 1.3135. For the bulls, task No.1 is to overcome the key resistance in the 1.3300 zone. And if the Bank of England does raise the interest rate on December 16, this will not be a problem. Subsequent resistances are located at levels 1.3360, 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

30% of analysts hope for the pair's growth in the near future, 45% expect it to fall further, and 25% have taken a neutral position. But the indicators on D1 definitely support the bears. 100% of trend indicators point to the south. The same could be said about oscillators, but 15% of them give signals that the pair is oversold.

USD/JPY: Yen Won't Retreat

The USD/JPY pair went beyond the trading range 113.40-114.40 at the end of November, and, as most experts expected (55%), continued to move south, reaching the local bottom at the level of 112.52 and having updated the seven-week low. This was followed by a trend reversal, several unsuccessful attempts to return the pair to the 113.40-114.40 channel and a finish at 112.80.

The yen is supported as a safe haven currency by investor fears regarding the spread of the Omicron coronavirus strain. However, now that the initial wave of panic has passed, this advantage over the dollar is gradually fading away.

It should also be borne in mind that Japan is in a difficult position because the country's debt to GDP ratio is too high. And according to a number of experts, it is necessary to adopt a new package of monetary stimuli, which will put additional pressure on the yen, in order to increase the pace of economic recovery.

Until that happens, UOB analysts believe the pair may retest the 1.1250 support, but the chances of breaking below are slim. If it does manage to do so, it will face the next obstacle in the 111.85-112.00 area. According to experts at Credit Suisse, the pair needs to rise above the 113.70-114.00 zone to implement the bullish scenario, and then overcome the resistance at 114.80. This will be a good start for a move to the five-year high of 115.52, which was recorded on November 24.

Most of the experts (55%) are currently on the side of the bulls, 25% side with the bears and 20% expect a sideways movement of the pair. 90% of the oscillators are still facing south, but a quarter of them are in the oversold zone, the remaining 10% have turned north. The ratio is 65% to 35% among trend indicators in favor of the reds.

The resistance levels are 113.40, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 112.50, then 112.00 and 111.65.

As for macro-economic statistics, data on GDP of Japan for Q3 will be released on Wednesday December 08. This indicator is expected to move from a decline (minus 0.8% in Q2) to a modest growth of 0.4%.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Overnight Crash in the Thin Market

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There were no significant changes on the crypto front throughout the working week. Bitcoin and ethereum, along with stock indices and investor risk appetites, even went up at the beginning of the week. But it was only a temporary respite. The cryptocurrency market went down during the night from Friday to Saturday, dipping by about 20%. The BTC/USD pair returned to levels ten weeks ago, falling to $41,620, while ETH/USD fell to $3,510. And this despite the fact that ethereum tried to renew its all-time high just three days before that, rising to the height of $4.771.

The true reasons for what happened are not yet clear at the time of writing the review, but it all looks like someone's speculative combination on a thin night market, when major investors are asleep ahead of the weekend days. This version is also supported by the fact that the quotes of the main cryptocurrencies jumped up within a few minutes after the fall. Bitcoin went up 15%, rising to $48,000. It is possible that it was those who were behind this drop that who replenished their stocks of coins very quickly at a "discount" price. Although, this is only a guess.

The President of El Salvador managed to take advantage of the drawdown of the flagship cryptocurrency. Nayib Bukele acquired another 150 BTC, increasing his wallet to 1,370 coins. True, at the same time he complained that he slept through the moment of the collapse for only 7 minutes, so he had to pay about $48,000 per coin.

At the time of this writing, on the afternoon of December 4, the total crypto market capitalization is at $2.2 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has shifted from the neutral center of the scale to the Extreme Fear zone, to 25 points mark (47 weeks ago).

According to Nigel Green, CEO of the consulting company deVere Group, investors should buy this cryptocurrency right now, as its rate will double in a year. “Panic is the right time to buy BTC,” Green said.

Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, who believes that investors should not be fooled by the daily fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, agrees with him. According to the financier, it's not that bitcoin is getting better over fiat currencies. They are getting worse than bitcoin. “There is a global race to the bottom,” says Martin Yusko. Therefore, BTC is an ideal savings asset in a world where governments are in a race to devalue their currency.

Much the same thought was expressed by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former director of communications in the Donald Trump administration. “If you believe in long-term fundamentals like we do, then now is the time to buy. The volatility of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is knocking people out of the game. It also flushes out some of the leverage, which, in my opinion, creates a springboard for a good Q1," the financier explained, adding that not only fundamental factors, but also the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, indicate further growth in cryptocurrency quotes.

Time will tell whether these optimistic influencers are right or wrong. For example, cryptanalyst and trader Benjamin Cowen has recently argued that the value of bitcoin will not fall below $50,000. But it did. At the same time, we cannot but mention another negative signal for investors: option traders are betting on bitcoin's decline for six months for the first time since May. The price ratio for weekly, monthly and three-month contracts also shifted to the “bears” earlier this month.

And in conclusion of the review, a traditional and not very serious rubric of crypto-life hacks. We will tell you how some are trying to make money on cryptocurrencies. But at the same time, we strongly advise you NOT to follow their example.

Police in the Spanish city of Tarragona arrested a 33-year-old man and a woman who installed hidden miners on computers... in stores. The criminals infected at least 16 devices in electronics stores Mediamarkt and El Corte Ingles department stores. According to available information, the woman distracted employees and asked for help to start the laptop, which she allegedly bought in their store. Meanwhile, her companion was installing the Nicehash miner and the Anydesk program for remote access to computers on display sample laptops.

The new laptops running at full capacity have raised suspicion among consultants. Mediamarkt's CCTV cameras filmed the accomplices visiting the store three times, and the police were able to identify them from the video.

It is probably appropriate to cite here one more figure concerning the criminal mining of cryptocurrencies. According to the Cybersecurity Action Team experts, 86% of the hacked accounts on the Google Cloud platform were subsequently used for mining, and the software required for this was loaded on average 22 seconds after the hack.

In many cases, attackers gained access to accounts due to poor protection on the part of the users themselves. Therefore, dear readers, be as vigilant as possible.

***

Clients of the brokerage company NordFX continue to accumulate lottery tickets: the New Year's draw of this Super Lottery will take place soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000.

This money will be useful to you, won't it?

It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week

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- The collapse of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on December 04 occurred against the background of investors' flight from risky assets and the fall of the stock market. The reason for this was the news about the largest real estate developer in China Evergrande. The media reported that its founder was summoned to the government because of the possible bankruptcy of the company, which could create serious problems for the entire world economy.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital Research called general nervousness due to the new COVID-19 strain "Omicron" and because of the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about a possible acceleration in the pace of curtailing the monetary stimulus program, as the reason for the fall in the crypto market.

- Bitcoin is unlikely to have time to renew the highs before the end of 2021 and reach the $100,000 mark after the recent crash. This opinion was expressed by the chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management Matt Hougan in an interview with Bloomberg. “I think this level can be the goal for 2022,” the top manager said. In his opinion, the growing support from institutions will be the driver, and there are “fundamental driving forces” for this.
Also, giving a forecast for 2022, Hougan predicted an “explosion of activity based on ethereum”. A Bitwise spokesperson highlighted the DeFi, NFT, Web 3.0 and metaverse sectors, as well as the growing potential of altcoins. “Investors will look at Ethereum, Solana or Polygon. They are beginning to understand that cryptocurrency is more than just bitcoin,” says Hougan.

- President Joe Biden's administration has published the United States Anti-Corruption Strategy. This is the first time that such a document mentions cryptocurrencies. “The Ministry of Justice will use the established National Cryptocurrency Law Enforcement Group to focus on comprehensive investigations and prosecutions of the criminal use of digital assets,” the Strategy says. This group will focus on "crimes committed by exchanges, mixing services and money laundering infrastructure entities."

- A poll by Grayscale Investments showed that more than a quarter of US investors (26%) already own bitcoin, more than half of them (55%) have acquired an asset in the last 12 months. 77% of respondents view digital gold as an investment asset and only 20% see bitcoin as a means of payment.
Despite the popularity of the retention strategy, one in six investors sold at least part of their digital assets, 91% of them did so at a profit.

- Back in early June, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele announced that his country was going to mine BTC using energy from the region's volcanoes. He distributed a video at the end of September talking about the start of construction of the corresponding facility.
However, one of El Salvador's leading ecologists, Ricardo Navarro, believes that BTC mining using geothermal volcanic energy will eventually lead to an environmental disaster. Such energy is quite expensive, and its price is even higher than that of oil. As a result, in his opinion, the country will simply have to purchase more oil. Navarro also insists that "Bukele is not really aware of what is happening with the energy situation."

- The higher the bitcoin rate, the more often it is buried. It is paradoxical, but true: as the quotes grow, skeptics who write obituaries for cryptocurrency become more active. 99bitcoins calculated: the year is not over yet, and BTC has already been predicted death 41 times. The opponents of the coin were even more active only in 2017 and 2018: the premature death of the asset was reported 124 and 93 times then.
The latter of the current obituaries is by economist Bill Blain. Blain calls bitcoin a Ponzi scheme incapable of fulfilling the function of money and argues that cryptocurrency accelerates inflation.
Unlike a number of other crypto critics, Blain has doubts about blockchain technology as well: “From time to time I dig into the myriad of junk that masquerades as the genius of blockchain, mathematics and computational logic that underlies cryptography. Read it yourself: it's 10% fun and 90% complete nonsense,” he writes.

- Well-known analyst and trader Ton Weiss believes that bitcoin has a better chance of reaching a new all-time high this year after the collapse to $42,000. The coin needs to gain a foothold above $53,500 for the bulls to seize the initiative. “I think it will be like a V-turn. We will not have another chance to buy bitcoin below $50,000,” Weiss believes.

- The USA called "Moscow City" a hub for illegal cryptocurrency transactions. Experts of the Recorded Future company, which specializes in cybersecurity, claim that there are about 50 crypto exchanges that are engaged in illegal activities in this business center of the Russian capital. Recorded Future concluded that part of the payments to the ransomware went through "Moscow City", reports The New York Times.
The US authorities announced In September the imposition of sanctions against the Russian crypto exchange Suex, which has offices in Moscow and St. Petersburg. US officials claim Suex facilitated the withdrawal of ransomware and scammers' funds. This is the first time in US history that the authorities have imposed sanctions on a crypto exchange.

— According to Finbold, Americans suffered about $3.94 billion in losses from various cybercrimes in the first three quarters of 2021, which was the highest in history. Thus, cybercriminals stole at least $12.78 million daily. Compared to three quarters of 2020, losses increased by 83% ($1.9 billion). They amounted to about $1.2 billion In the same period of 2019, and $818 million in 2018.

- A well-known investor and economist Louis Navellier believes that a large bubble has been inflated in the stock market, which may lead to a strong correction of risky assets. As a result, bitcoin could drop to $10,000.
Navellier recalled that a serious fall in the rate of the main cryptocurrency also followed during a similar correction of risky assets in February-March 2020.
This time, in his opinion, the situation could be even worse, and bitcoin could lose up to 80% of its capitalization. This may be facilitated by the actions of the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.
“A fall below $46,000 (200-day moving average) would be a bearish signal. Bitcoin must fall to $28,500 to complete the double top pattern, and such a decline could indicate a drop below $10,000. This is an 80% decline and bitcoin has already shown similar behavior,” the investor said, referring to the end of 2017.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Stan NordFX

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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 13 - 17, 2021


EUR/USD: Ahead of the Fed and ECB Meetings

We titled this section of the review “Employment and Inflation Decide Everything” last week. It is these two parameters that determine the monetary policy of central banks in the current situation. The next meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place on Thursday, December 16, and the markets expect the regulator to speed up the procedure for curtailing incentives, and, perhaps, even increase the interest rate. Undoubtedly, these decisions will be influenced by the macro statistics released in recent days.

The report from the US labor market published on December 09, looks pretty good overall. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was expected to grow by 3,000, but it fell by 43,000 to 185,000 instead. This is the minimum in more than half a century, since 1969. On the other hand, the situation with repeated applications turned out to be worse than forecasted: their number increased by 38 thousand instead of falling by 72 thousand. But if we sum up both indicators, we get a reduction in applications by 5,000, which confirms the trend towards the recovery of the labor market. Moreover, the number of open vacancies has grown by 431 thousand: there is already a shortage of labor in the United States.

As for inflation, the higher it is, the greater the chances that the Fed will begin to tighten its monetary policy even faster. And we are talking not only about reducing the repurchase of assets, but also about raising the key rate, which can lead to a further strengthening of the dollar.

Inflation in the United States has currently reached record levels in more than forty years and, judging by the data released on December 10, continues to grow. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 6.8% on an annualized basis in November from 6.2% in October. As for the core index (Core CPI), it was 4.9% YOY, which is also higher than the previous value (4.6% in October). And the market will be now waiting to see how the Fed will react to these numbers at the upcoming meeting. The head of this organization Jerome Powell and his colleagues convinced investors earlier of their readiness for aggressive monetary restrictions.

About 70% of Financial Times experts believe that the return of monetary policy to the pre-Covid level will proceed quite smoothly, and the interest rate will reach 1.5% by the end of 2023 (it is 0.25% now). At the same time, only 10% of the surveyed analysts expect that the first stage of the rate hike will occur in the Q1 of 2022, 50% are betting on the Q2. As for the complete curtailment of the $120 billion quantitative easing (QE) program, more than half of the respondents believe that this will happen by the end of March of the coming year.

The next meeting of the European Central Bank will be held on the same day as the Fed meeting on Thursday, December 16. We have already written that, unlike the Fed, the ECB plans to take its first step in this direction only in 2023. It will calmly watch the record price increases in the Eurozone countries until then. But there are chances that the European regulator will nevertheless decide to accelerate, following the example of its overseas colleague, and turn from a dove into a hawk. This will be a pleasant surprise for the EUR/USD bulls. And this cannot be ruled out, especially since the hawkish statements of such authoritative officials as Isabel Schnabel are beginning to sound from the depths of the ECB.

This member of the Bank's Governing Council said the other day that asset purchases were an important tool during market shocks and recessions, but the balance of QE advantages and disadvantages deteriorates during the period of economic growth, increasing the risks of financial instability. And the market reacted by albeit short-term, growth of the European currency even to this, in general not binding statement of Mrs. Schnabel.

In anticipation of the Fed and ECB meetings, the EUR/USD pair revolves around Pivot Point 1.1300 for the second consecutive week. This time, it completed the five-day period near this line at 1.1316. Among experts, 75% expect further strengthening of the US currency, 20% are betting on the growth of the euro. The remaining 5% have taken a neutral position.

But the two-week sideways trend causes confusion and discord among the indicators on D1. As for trend indicators, 60% are colored red, 40% are green. As for oscillators, 40% point to the south, 30% to the north and another 30% to the east. Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1355, 1.1380, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1300, then 1.1265, 1.1225, 1.1185, then 1.1075-1.1100

As for the events of the coming week, in addition to the meetings of the Central Banks and subsequent comments of their management, the release of statistics on retail sales in the US on Wednesday December 15, as well as the publication of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone on December 16 should be noted. In addition, a meeting of the European Council will take place on Thursday and Friday.

GBP/USD: Ahead of Fed and Bank of England Meetings

December 16 will bring a lot of excitement to traders: in addition to the Fed and the ECB, the Bank of England will also make a decision on further monetary policy and interest rates on this day. The value of the business activity index in the UK services sector Markit will become known the same day. In addition, data on unemployment will be released on Tuesday December 14 and inflation in the UK consumer market on Wednesday 15 December.

The pound weakened last week after the UK government introduced new quarantine measures due to a new strain of COVID-19. According to statistics, the number of infections with the Omicron strain doubles every two to three days. Simple calculations show that with such dynamics, the number of infections may exceed 1 million by the end of the month (10.6 million cases have been recorded in the country since the beginning of the pandemic). The situation is of concern for investors, and therefore they do want to receive information from the Bank of England whether the Omicron coronavirus strain has influenced the plans to curtail the stimulus program.

The bulls for the GBP/USD pair were not pleased with weak macro-economic statistics, which turned out to be worse than forecasted. Also, the pound continues to be under pressure from the consequences of Brexit and significant disagreements between the EU and the UK over the Northern Ireland Protocol, due to which, according to British officials, the country is faced with a shortage of goods and supply disruptions.

At the same time, 40% of analysts still hope for the pair to grow. But if the Bank of England does not raise rates again, their hopes will melt like the morning fog over London. And given the government's position on quarantine, the regulator is highly likely to leave the rate unchanged at least until February 2022. The majority (60%) of the experts vote for this outcome of the meeting.

Pending regulatory decisions, the GBP/USD pair completed the session in the same way it traded a week ago: in the 1.3265 zone. However, despite this, 75% of the trend indicators on D1 still support the bears. Among the oscillators there are 80% of them, the remaining 20% turned upward.

Task No.1 for the bulls is to overcome the key resistance in the 1.3285-1.3300 zone. And this will not be a problem if the Bank of England does raise the interest rate on December 16. Subsequent resistances are located at levels 1.3360, 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835. The nearest support is located in the 1.3210-1.3220 zone, followed by the levels 1.3195, 1.3160, 1.3135, 1.3075. In case of a breakout of the latter, the pair may fall down to the horizon of 1.2960.

USD/JPY: The Yen Holds Defense. It holds it so far

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If the EUR/USD pair revolves around 1.1300 for the second week, USD/JPY does the same, only around 113.30. The risk appetites that returned to the market and pushed up the stock indices, could not have any significant effect on the Japanese currency, which was supported by the statement of the member of the Board of the Bank of Japan Hitoshi Suzuki. He said commenting on the COVID-19 situation that if the US Federal Reserve starts to cut QE and raises interest rates faster than expected, the Bank of Japan could also raise long-term rates. According to Hitoshi Suzuki, rates may rise as soon as the coronavirus uncertainty disappears, which will help the Japanese economy continue to recover. It is certainly not worth expecting that the increase will take place at the next meeting of the regulator on Friday, December 17. The rate is most likely to remain at the previous negative level of -0.1%.

The deputy head of the Bank Masayoshi Amamiya tried to add optimism to investors. The country's economy was in stagnation, but, according to the regulator's calculations, it should recover during 2022, even despite the Omicron strain. The official’s comments came after the very weak data on Japan's GDP for the Q3 were released on Wednesday, December 8. They showed a drop of 0.9% against the previous value of minus 0.8% and a positive forecast of +0.4%.

Giving the previous forecast, most experts expected the USD/JPY pair to make another attempt to return to the 113.40-114.40 channel. This is exactly what happened: the dollar began to advance, and it rose to the height of 113.95 on December 8, although then there followed a trend reversal a finish at the lower border of the channel, at 113.40.

As for the forecast for the coming week, 80% of experts believe that the pair will go up again with the help of the US Federal Reserve and, possibly, even break through the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel. The resistance levels are 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. Only 20% of analysts vote for the bearish scenario. The nearest support level is 112.55, then 112.00 and 111.65.

Among the oscillators on D1, 60% are still facing south, 30% remain neutral, and the remaining 10% have turned north. Trend indicators have a 50-50 draw.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Overnight Crash in the Thin Market

There is still no definite explanation why bitcoin fell below $42,000 on the night of December 04. However, it is worth paying attention to the fact that the fall of the crypto market took place together with the fall of the stock market and the flight of investors from risky assets. The reason for this was the news about the largest real estate developer in China Evergrande. The media reported that its founder was summoned to the government because of the possible bankruptcy of the company, which could create serious problems for the entire world economy.

Galaxy Digital Research analysts believe that is not the case. The triggers for the collapse, in their opinion, were the general nervousness due to the new COVID-19 strain Omicron and the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about a possible faster curtailment of the QE program.

Be that as it may but having set a record on November 10 at the height of $68,780, the flagship cryptocurrency is rolling down for the fifth week in a row. And the optimism of experts and investors also decreases along with its value.

Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that bitcoin is now unlikely to have time to update the highs and reach $100,000 before the end of 2021. “I think this level could be the goal for 2022,” said the top manager in an interview with Bloomberg. Growth should be driven by growing support from institutions, and for this, in his opinion, there are “fundamental driving forces”.

Louis Navellier, a famous investor and economist, believes that the “driving forces”, on the contrary, are directed downwards. A large bubble has been inflated in the stock market, which could lead to a strong correction of risky assets, as a result of which bitcoin could fall to $10,000.

Navellier recalled that a serious drop in the rate of the main cryptocurrency also followed during a similar correction in February-March 2020. This time, in his opinion, the situation could be even worse, and bitcoin could lose up to 80% of its capitalization. And this may be facilitated by the actions of the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.

“A fall below $46,000 (200-day moving average) would be a bearish signal. Bitcoin must fall to $28,500 to complete the double top pattern, and such a decline could indicate a drop below $10,000. This is an 80% decline and bitcoin has already shown similar behavior,” the investor said, referring to the end of 2017.

Recall that then, a prolonged fall followed after a dizzying rise to $19,270. It lasted about a year and was called the crypto winter, during which the BTC/USD pair lost almost 85%.

A sharp turn to the south occurred not only in 2017, but also in the second half of 2019. And, of course, one cannot but recall a very recent example: April-July of this year, when bitcoin quotes sank 55% in three months.

These bearish waves hit the pockets and wallets of speculators hard and made us talk about a possible complete and final collapse of the crypto market once again. 99bitcoins calculated: the year is not over yet, and BTC has already been predicted death 41 times. The opponents of the coin were even more active only in 2017 and 2018: the premature death of the asset was reported 124 and 93 times then.

The latter of the current obituaries is by economist Bill Blain. Blain calls bitcoin a Ponzi scheme incapable of fulfilling the function of money, and argues that cryptocurrency accelerates inflation. Moreover, unlike a number of other crypto critics, Blain also doubts the blockchain technology: “From time to time, I dig through the myriad of garbage that disguises itself as the genius of the blockchain, mathematics and computational logic underlying cryptography... This is 10% fascinating and 90% complete nonsense,” he writes.

Well-known analyst and trader Ton Weiss, unlike Bill Blain and Louis Navellier, believes that it is too early to bury cryptocurrency. In his opinion, bitcoin has a better chance of reaching a new all-time high this year after the current collapse. The coin needs to gain a foothold above $53,500 for the bulls to seize the initiative. “I think it will be like a V-turn. We will not have another chance to buy bitcoin below $50,000,” Weiss believes.

If, under negative circumstances, the decline still continues, it will certainly attract the interest of long-term holders. Every time a pullback occurs, investors begin to buy out the fall in anticipation of a new rise in price, and do not allow the crypto market to fall into an uncontrolled collapse.

So large bitcoin holders (from 100 to 10 thousand BTC) have already bought 67,000 coins last week. Of course, this is not a lot. Therefore, there is no need to talk about a return to the bullish trend yet. On the contrary, the advantage is still in the hands (or rather, in their paws) of the bears who are trying to push the BTC/USD pair below the $46,000-48,000 zone, where the 200-day moving average passes.

At the time of writing the review (on the night of December 10 to December 11), the total capitalization of the crypto market is $2.215 trillion (minus 25% compared to the historical maximum of November 10). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Extreme Fear zone at 24 points. But the bitcoin dominance index dropped to 39.88%, yielding more and more "territory" to its main competitor, ethereum, whose market share reached 22%. (For comparison, 71.86% for BTC and 10.63% for ETH at the very beginning of the year).

The ETH/USD chart shows clearly that ethereum is recovering significantly better than bitcoin after falling on December 04. And if the BTC/USD pair has grown by a little more than 55% over the past five months, the increase in ETH/USD was more than 130%.

The main driver of its growth in recent months has been the burning of coins for transactions on the network and the fact that the rate of their burning outstrips the rate of their production. The ethereum network has already burned more than 1 million coins since the activation of the London hard fork.

Rahul Rai, the manager of the cryptocurrency fund BlockTower Capital, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that it may be as early as mid-2022. ETH will be the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization.

Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy.

Director of Bitwise Asset Management Matt Hougan predicted an "explosion of activity based on ethereum" in his forecast for 2022 as well. “Investors will look at Ethereum, Solana or Polygon. They are beginning to understand that cryptocurrency is more than just bitcoin,” says Hougan.

***

We are witnessing an explosion in the activity of NordFX clients, who continue to accumulate lottery tickets, because the New Year's draw of its Super Lottery will take place very soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000.

There is very little time left, but you can still make it. It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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Stan NordFX

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CryptoNews of the Week

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- Miners have already mined 90% of the coins from the total bitcoin emission. The bitcoin network has reached the point at block No. 714000 where it remains to mine 2.1 million BTC, or 10% of the available emission volume. However, the total cryptocurrency supply will not be equal to 21 million coins, as provided by the algorithm. Chainalysis has calculated that 3.79 million BTC could be lost forever. In theory, these coins do exist, but they do not circulate.
Also, about 1 million BTC is stored at addresses that are associated with the creator of the first cryptocurrency, Satoshi Nakamoto. These bitcoins were mined early in the development of the network and have not moved since then. Nakamoto left his last public message 11 years ago.
Digital gold is expected to reach its emission limit around 2140 as regular halvings gradually lead to a zero-emission rate.

- According to the Bitstamp cryptocurrency exchange, the number of women investing in cryptocurrency increased by 198% in the first three quarters of 2021compared to the same period in 2020. The highest percentage of new investors are women between the ages of 30 and 35. It is curious that the most successful female investors and traders are the age group from 55 to 60 years old. They tend to invest larger amounts and earn higher returns.
The main reason for this influx is likely the proliferation of information about cryptocurrencies during the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 forced many countries to enter lockdowns, which made citizens stay at home for a long time. It is natural that when left without work, people were forced to look for new opportunities to generate income. In addition, fiat currencies are depreciating catastrophically in many countries.
However, despite the influx of women into what was previously considered predominantly male, gender balance will still take time. According to a report called Financial Tribes You Need to Know, 66% of investors in the cryptocurrency industry are still male.

- The new German government has included cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in the list of the country's main development directions for the next four years. And now German savings banks have started working on a cryptocurrency wallet project. According to media reports, the plan provides for the possibility of buying and selling digital assets directly through accounts, and customers will not have to undergo additional verification procedures.
For reference: there are about 370 savings banks in Germany. Their aggregate database has about 50 million customers, and assets under management are estimated at €1.4 trillion.

- According to IntoTheBlock experts, if BTC does not hold above $48,000, the risks of its fall to $43,000 will increase, and it is only at this level that the coin will be able to find a local bottom. About 344,000 wallets purchased 395,000 coins at prices in the area of this support. It is these investors who must prevent further pullback so as not to go into the red.

- Attackers hacked the personal Twitter of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They wrote on his behalf about the recognition of the first cryptocurrency as a legal means of payment in the country. The publication also said that India bought 500 BTC and plans to distribute it to citizens. Attackers also attached a link to a fraudulent site allegedly for citizens to receive their share of coins. As of now, the fake tweet has been deleted.

- When the news feed is calm enough, traders begin to pay more attention to technical analysis. And now the legendary trader and techno analyst Peter Brandt warned investors that there is a dangerous double top pattern on the chart of the first cryptocurrency. However, according to a number of experts, this does not mean that the pattern will eventually be fully formed and that the market will go into a deeper correction.
The analytical department of Bestchange believes that despite the high risks of continuing the local fall, the main cryptocurrency is able to go up powerfully in the medium term. “The situation is extremely ambiguous today, but mid-term forecasts until mid-2022 are still positive. Bitcoin needs to lose at least half of its capitalization and securely gain a foothold at levels below $28,000-30,000 in order to abandon most positive scenarios. Until this happens, the hope for $100,000 continues to be relevant,” Bestchange believes.
According to Nikita Soshnikov, director of Alfacash crypto service, the market will face a long period of depressed sentiment if the double top pattern is confirmed. However, “there is no question of any bitcoin at $5,000 or even $15,000. You can simply forget about such prices for cryptocurrency. But it may well fall below $40,000 and stay at this level for several weeks. I even admit a decline in the rate to $35,000, but going below this mark is unlikely,” the expert predicted.

- Elon Musk was named TIME's Person of the Year. The publication noted the impact of the founder of Tesla and SpaceX on life on Earth and “possibly beyond”. "This is a man who seeks to save our planet and help us populate a new one: a jester, a genius, a provocateur, a seer, an industrialist, a showman, a boor, a crazy hybrid of Edison, Barnum, Andrew Carnegie and Dr. Manhattan from The Watchmen," - this is how TIME characterizes the richest person on the planet with a fortune of $265 billion.
When asked by a TIME reporter regarding cryptocurrencies, Musk replied that he is “not such a big opponent of fiat. But the cryptocurrency has advantages, since any government, whatever it may be, has a desire to issue." “I was instrumental in the creation of PayPal. And there are few who understand [the monetary system] better than I do,” multi-billionaire said. However, he doubted that digital assets can replace fiat. “Bitcoin can serve as a store of value, but it cannot be a good substitute for currencies for payments. In this regard, even Dogecoin created as a joke is better suited.”
Among other things, Musk said in the interview with TIME that he would not be held responsible for how the markets react to his tweets: “Markets are in motion all the time on their own for no reason. Is the reaction to my statements significantly different from the random wanderings that they already have? I do not think so. As you can see from my tweets, this is humor, which I find funny, but not everyone agrees. "

- The Weiss Crypto rating agency still adheres to an optimistic scenario despite the protracted correction of the flagship cryptocurrency. Agency analysts support the forecast of colleagues from Bloomberg, who previously announced a high probability of a coin breakthrough to $100,000 in 2022.
The chances of reaching this psychological mark exceed the risks of a further fall, according to the Weiss Crypto review. Against the backdrop of the confrontation with China, the United States will accelerate the legalization of the crypto sphere, which will positively affect the value of digital currencies.
The authors of the study emphasize that cryptocurrency will be the main beneficiary of the fall of the stock market in the context of tightening the monetary policy by the Fed. Investors can abandon stocks in favor of digital currency as a hedging tool. In addition, the decline in the yield on US Treasury bonds may also have a positive effect on the quotes of BTC and ETH.

- According to Michael van de Poppe, creator of the Material Indicators analytical resource, bearish sentiment still prevails among whales. “They have not bought a single drawdown since the beginning of October and have only been selling lately,” he explained.
However, following the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting this week, the BTC rate may complete the correction and move to growth on the triggering of the “sell on rumors, buy on the news” rule. A similar scenario emerges based on the analysis of the order book of the Bitfinex exchange. Traders started placing buy orders in the range of $44,500-$46,000, while at the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading above $47,000.


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Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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