News Announcements & Chart Analysis by PlexyTrade

[MiloPlexyTrade]

3rd December 2024

Tuesday
​

On December 3rd, key economic updates are on the horizon with high-impact news releases from Switzerland and the United States. Switzerland will announce its CPI m/m data, offering insights into inflation trends, while the US is set to release its JOLTS Job Openings report, shedding light on labor market dynamics. ​

CHF - CPI m/m​

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, with its monthly release occurring approximately three days after the end of the month. This indicator is crucial for currency valuation, as a CPI reading that exceeds forecasts typically signals favorable conditions for the currency. Consumer prices are a significant component of overall inflation, which in turn influences central bank policies; rising inflation often prompts the central bank to increase interest rates to maintain price stability. CPI is derived by sampling and comparing the average prices of a variety of goods and services from one period to the next.

In October 2024, the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% from the previous month, reaching 107.1 points, with annual inflation at 0.6%, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The decline was driven by lower prices in hotels, international package holidays, fuel, and vegetables, though prices for clothing, footwear, and housing maintenance rose. Core inflation, excluding seasonal items, energy, and fuel, was up 0.1% monthly and 0.8% yearly. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remained stable month-over-month at 107.48, marking a 0.7% annual increase. Detailed data showed substantial price drops in petrol, diesel, and package holidays, with significant price rises in clothing, footwear, and certain services.​

TL;DR

• CPI Monthly Change: Decreased by 0.1% to 107.1 points in October 2024.
• CPI Annual Inflation: Recorded at 0.6%.
• Price Decreases: Hotels, international package holidays, fuel (petrol, diesel), and vegetables.
• Price Increases: Clothing, footwear, housing maintenance, and certain services.
• Core Inflation: Excluding seasonal items, energy, and fuel, rose by 0.1% monthly and 0.8% annually.
• HICP: Stable month-over-month at 107.48, with a 0.7% annual increase.
• Key Observations: Substantial price drops in petrol, diesel, and holidays; notable increases in clothing and footwear prices.

The CPI m/m forecast stands at -0.1%, aligning with the previous reported figure.

The upcoming CPI m/m report is scheduled for release this Tuesday at 7:30 AM GMT.

USD – JOLTS Job Openings​

The JOLTS Job Openings report measures the number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry; an 'Actual' figure greater than the 'Forecast' is positive for the currency because job creation is a crucial leading indicator of consumer spending, which constitutes a significant portion of overall economic activity.


Job openings in the U.S. dropped to 7.4 million in September, nearing pre-pandemic levels as the labor market cools down, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report shows a significant drop from August’s 7.86 million openings, with the largest declines in health care, social assistance, and government sectors, marking a shift to a more normalized market similar to 2018-2019 levels. Despite increased hires and layoffs, rates remain within pre-pandemic ranges, and the quits rate has dropped to 1.9%, the lowest since 2015 (excluding 2020). Economists expect October data to be influenced by the recent Boeing strike and hurricanes, projecting job gains around 120,000 — half of September’s count.​

TL;DR

Metric	Value/Change	Details

Job Openings

7.4 million

Dropped from 7.86 million in August, nearing pre-pandemic levels.

Key Sector Declines

Health care, social assistance, government

Largest reductions in job openings.

Quits Rate

1.9%

Lowest since 2015 (excluding 2020).

Hires and Layoffs

Increased

Rates remain within pre-pandemic ranges.

Labor Market Trend

Cooling down

Aligning with 2018-2019 levels, showing normalization.

October Projections

Job gains ~120,000

Impacted by Boeing strike and hurricanes, down from September’s higher job gain figures.

The forecast for JOLTS Job Openings stands at 7.49 million, slightly higher than the previous figure of 7.44 million.

The next JOLTS Job Openings report is scheduled for release on Tuesday at 3:00 PM GMT. This key labor market indicator could offer valuable insights into job availability and economic momentum.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

4th December 2024

Wednesday

​

On December 4th, Australia and the United States are set to release significant economic data, including Australia's GDP q/q, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and the ISM Services PMI, all of which are expected to provide key insights into economic performance.​

AUD - GDP q/q​

GDP quarter-over-quarter measures the real change in the value of all goods and services produced in the economy over a quarter, adjusted for inflation. It serves as a broad indicator of economic health and activity. Typically, when the actual GDP growth exceeds the forecasted figures, it positively influences the nation's currency. This makes it a crucial metric for traders as it provides a comprehensive gauge of economic vitality.​

​

The Australian economy experienced modest growth in the June quarter of 2024, with a GDP increase of just 0.2%, marking its eleventh consecutive quarter of expansion but reflecting the weakest annual pace since the early 1990s, aside from the pandemic years. This period's growth, steady at 0.2% quarter-over-quarter but below expectations of 0.3%, was primarily supported by increased government spending, which rose by 1.4%. In contrast, household spending declined by 0.2%, signaling a cutback in discretionary expenses, particularly in transport services. Furthermore, fixed investment did not contribute to growth, continuing a downward trend for the third consecutive quarter. Trade saw a slight improvement with exports up by 0.5%, although imports dropped by 0.2%. Inventory adjustments also negatively impacted the growth figures. The annual GDP growth rate stood at 1.0%, culminating in a yearly expansion of 1.5% for 2023-24, the slowest growth rate recorded outside of pandemic conditions since 1991-92.​

TL;DR

Indicator	Value	Notes

Quarterly GDP Growth

+0.2%

Eleventh consecutive quarter of growth; below expectations of +0.3%.

Annual GDP Growth

+1.0%

Weakest annual pace outside pandemic years since early 1990s.

2023-24 Annual GDP Growth

+1.5%

Slowest annual growth since 1991-92 (excluding pandemic years).

Government Spending

+1.4%

Key driver of quarterly growth.

Household Spending

-0.2%

Decline in discretionary expenses, notably in transport services.

Fixed Investment

Flat

No contribution to growth; third consecutive quarter of decline.

Exports

+0.5%

Slight improvement in trade.

Imports

-0.2%

Contributed positively to net trade.

Inventories

Negative Contribution

Inventory adjustments negatively impacted growth.

The GDP forecast for Q/Q growth is set at 0.5%, a notable improvement from the previous outcome of 0.2%.
​

The upcoming GDP q/q is set to be released on Wednesday at 12:30 AM GMT.

USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change​

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change estimates the monthly change in employment numbers, excluding the agriculture sector and government employees. Generally, if the actual data surpasses the forecast, it positively influences the currency. This metric is closely watched by traders because job creation serves as a vital indicator of consumer spending, which significantly drives overall economic activity. The data is derived by analyzing payroll information from over 25 million workers to estimate employment growth.


Private-sector job growth in the U.S. surged unexpectedly in October, as companies added 233,000 new positions, according to ADP's latest report. This figure far exceeded both September’s revised 159,000 and the Dow Jones forecast of 113,000, marking the strongest job creation month since July 2023. The robust growth defied projections for a slowdown following disruptive hurricanes in the Southeast and strikes at Boeing and Eastern seaboard ports. Hiring gains were led by sectors such as education and health services, trade, transportation, and construction. However, manufacturing saw a decrease of 19,000 jobs due to Boeing’s ongoing strike. Large companies with over 500 employees drove much of the growth, while small businesses contributed minimally. The report, which precedes the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release on Friday, highlights a resilient labor market with wage growth at 4.6% year-over-year, despite economic disruptions.​

TL;DR

Indicator	Value/Details

Jobs Added (October 2024)

233,000

Previous Month (September 2024)

Revised to 159,000

Forecast (Dow Jones)

113,000

Strongest Job Creation Since

July 2023

Key Sectors with Job Gains

- Education and Health Services - Trade - Transportation - Construction

Sector with Job Losses

Manufacturing (-19,000 jobs, due to Boeing strike)

Large Companies (>500 Employees)

Major driver of job growth

Small Businesses Contribution

Minimal

Wage Growth (Year-over-Year)

4.6%

Disruptive Factors

- Hurricanes in the Southeast - Boeing and port strikes

Comparison to BLS Report

ADP report precedes the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release.

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast is set at 159,000, a significant drop from the previous outcome of 233,000.
​

The next ADP Non Farm Employment Change will be released on Wednesday at 1:15 PM GMT.

USD - ISM Services PMI​

The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is a monthly index based on surveys from approximately 300 purchasing and supply executives nationwide. It tracks changes in indicators such as Business Activity, New Orders, and Employment, with readings above 50% signaling expansion and below 50% indicating contraction. Given that service orders account for about 90% of the US economy, the report provides crucial insights into economic health and business sentiment, making it a key leading indicator for traders.


In October 2024, the U.S. services sector experienced its fourth consecutive month of expansion, with the Services PMI reaching 56.0, its highest level since July 2022, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). This index, up from 54.9 in September, reflects broad-based growth in the sector, with fourteen industries reporting expansion. The Business Activity Index registered 57.2, and New Orders came in at 57.4, both slightly down from the previous month but still indicating healthy demand. Employment rebounded strongly, with the index jumping to 53.0, a 4.9-percentage point increase, signaling the third month of growth in four months. Supplier Deliveries slowed further to 56.4, reflecting logistical delays, particularly due to recent hurricanes and port strikes. The Prices Index, at 58.1, showed a slight easing in input costs, while the Backlog of Orders Index remained in contraction at 47.7, suggesting suppliers were able to catch up on deliveries. Surveyed executives noted some economic concerns tied to political uncertainties and climate-related disruptions, though demand remained steady. This report marked the services sector’s 50th expansion over the past 53 months, highlighting ongoing resilience despite various external pressures.​

TL;DR

Indicator	Value/Details

Services PMI

56.0 (highest since July 2022)

Previous Month (September)

54.9

Industries in Expansion

14 industries reporting growth

Business Activity Index

57.2 (slightly down from the previous month)

New Orders Index

57.4 (slightly down from the previous month)

Employment Index

53.0 (up 4.9 percentage points; third month of growth in four months)

Supplier Deliveries

56.4 (continued slowing due to hurricanes and port strikes)

Prices Index

58.1 (slight easing in input costs)

Backlog of Orders Index

47.7 (in contraction, indicating suppliers caught up on deliveries)

Economic Concerns

Tied to political uncertainties and climate-related disruptions

Sector Expansion History

50 expansions in the past 53 months

The ISM Services PMI forecast is 55.7, slightly lower than the previous outcome of 56.0, signaling continued sector expansion but at a moderated pace.
​

The upcoming ISM Services PMI is set to be announced on Wednesday at 3:00 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

5th December 2024

Thursday

​

The United States is set to release its weekly Unemployment Claims report on Thursday, offering crucial insights into the labor market's current health. This report will shed light on the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, serving as a key indicator of economic stability and workforce trends.​

USD - Unemployment Claims​

Unemployment Claims track the number of first-time filings for unemployment insurance in the past week. A lower-than-expected figure is positive for the currency, reflecting stronger labor market conditions. Although a lagging indicator, it provides vital insights into economic health and influences monetary policy decisions.


In the week ending November 23, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 213,000, while the previous week’s claims were revised upward by 2,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average of initial claims dropped by 1,250 to 217,000, following an upward revision of the previous average from 217,750 to 218,250. For the week ending November 16, the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.3%. However, the number of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment claims increased by 9,000 to 1,907,000—the highest level since November 2021. The previous week’s insured unemployment figure was revised down by 10,000 to 1,898,000. Additionally, the 4-week moving average for insured unemployment climbed by 13,500 to 1,890,250, also reaching its highest level since November 2021, after the prior week’s average was revised down by 2,500 to 1,876,750.​

TL;DR

Metric	Current Value	Change	Revised Previous Value	Highest Since

Initial Jobless Claims

213,000

Decreased by 2,000

215,000

-

4-Week Moving Avg. (Initial Claims)

217,000

Decreased by 1,250

218,250

-

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.3%

Unchanged

-

-

Insured Unemployment Claims

1,907,000

Increased by 9,000

1,898,000

November 2021

4-Week Moving Avg. (Insured Claims)

1,890,250

Increased by 13,500

1,876,750

November 2021

The upcoming Unemployment Claims report is forecasted to show 215,000 initial claims, reflecting a slight increase compared to the previous week's outcome of 213,000.​

The next upcoming Unemployment Claims is set to be released on Thursday at 1:30 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

6th December 2024

Friday

​

This Friday, significant labor market data will be released from both Canada and the US. Canada is set to announce its Employment Change, highlighting job gains or losses, along with its latest Unemployment Rate. Meanwhile, the US will publish key indicators including Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, and its Unemployment Rate, providing a comprehensive view of wage growth, job creation, and overall employment conditions. These updates are likely to influence market sentiment and policy expectations.​

CAD - Employment Change​

Employment Change Measures track the monthly variation in employment numbers. A higher-than-forecast 'Actual' figure is typically positive for the currency, as it indicates stronger job creation. Traders closely monitor this data because job growth is a crucial predictor of consumer spending, which significantly influences overall economic activity.


Canada's employment rose by 14,500 in October 2024, marking a slowdown from the 46,700 jobs added in September and falling short of the 25,000 jobs forecasted. Full-time employment grew by 25,600 positions, offsetting a decline of 11,200 part-time roles. Job gains were recorded in sectors such as business, building, and other support services (+28,700; +4.2%), educational services (+11,600; +0.8%), accommodation and food services (+12,200; +1.1%), and manufacturing (+9,700; +0.5%). However, losses were noted in finance, insurance, and real estate (-13,000; -0.9%), wholesale and retail trade (-8,300; -0.3%), and transportation and warehousing (-9,300; -0.9%). Regionally, Alberta (+13,000; +0.5%) and New Brunswick (+3,300; +0.8%) saw employment growth, while Prince Edward Island experienced a decline (-1,100; -1.2%).​

TL;DR

• Total Employment:
  • Increased by 14,500 in October, slower than September's 46,700 gain and below the forecast of 25,000.
• Full-Time vs. Part-Time:
  • Full-time employment rose by 25,600 positions.
  • Part-time employment declined by 11,200 roles.
• Sector Gains:
  • Business/Support Services: +28,700 (+4.2%).
  • Educational Services: +11,600 (+0.8%).
  • Accommodation/Food Services: +12,200 (+1.1%).
  • Manufacturing: +9,700 (+0.5%).
• Sector Losses:
  • Finance/Insurance/Real Estate: -13,000 (-0.9%).
  • Wholesale/Retail Trade: -8,300 (-0.3%).
  • Transportation/Warehousing: -9,300 (-0.9%).
• Regional Highlights:
  • Alberta: +13,000 (+0.5%).
  • New Brunswick: +3,300 (+0.8%).
  • Prince Edward Island: -1,100 (-1.2%).

The forecast stands at 24,700, compared to the previous outcome of 14,500.

CAD - Unemployment Rate​

Unemployment Rate Measures represent the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking work from the previous month. A lower-than-forecast 'Actual' figure is generally favorable for the currency. Traders monitor this metric closely because, despite being a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate provides valuable insights into overall economic health, given that consumer spending is closely linked to labor market conditions.


Canada's unemployment rate remained steady at 6.5% in October 2024, defying expectations of a rise to 6.6% and easing concerns about the labor market's recent downturn. While the unemployed population increased slightly by 900 to 1,429,000, net employment grew by 14,500 to 20,596,900, though it fell short of the anticipated 25,000 gain. A significant drop in youth joblessness (-20,800 to 403,400) offset a rise in unemployment among the core-aged population (up 21,300 to 803,900), with little change among older workers. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate slipped to 64.8%, the lowest since January 2021.​

TL;DR

• Unemployment Rate:
  • Remained steady at 6.5% in October 2024, defying expectations of a rise to 6.6%.
• Unemployed Population:
  • Increased slightly by 900 to 1,429,000.
• Net Employment:
  • Grew by 14,500 to 20,596,900 but fell short of the forecasted 25,000 gain.
• Youth Unemployment:
  • Dropped by 20,800 to 403,400.
• Core-Aged Unemployment:
  • Increased by 21,300 to 803,900.
• Older Workers:
  • Little change observed in unemployment numbers.
• Labor Force Participation Rate:
  • Declined to 64.8%, the lowest since January 2021.

The forecast predicted an increase to 6.6%, compared to the actual outcome of 6.5%.

The next Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures will be announced on Friday at 1:30 PM GMT.

USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m​

The Average Hourly Earnings m/m indicator measures the change in wages that businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming sector. If the 'Actual' figure exceeds the 'Forecast,' it generally benefits the currency. Traders pay close attention to this indicator because it acts as a leading indicator of consumer inflation; when businesses face higher labor costs, these increased expenses are often passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.


In August, average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees increased by 14 cents, or 0.4 percent, reaching $35.21, reflecting a 3.8 percent rise over the past year. Private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees saw a similar 0.4 percent increase, with earnings reaching $30.27. The average workweek for all private nonfarm employees edged up to 34.3 hours, while manufacturing overtime increased slightly. These wage and workweek gains came amid slower job growth and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2 percent.​

TL;DR

Category	Details

Average Hourly Earnings

Increased by 14 cents (+0.4%) to $35.21. Up 3.8% YoY.

Production & Nonsupervisory Wages

Increased by 0.4% to $30.27.

Average Workweek

Increased to 34.3 hours.

Manufacturing Overtime

Slight increase observed.

Job Growth

Slower compared to previous trends.

Unemployment Rate

Unchanged at 4.2%.

The forecast stands at 0.3%, compared to the previous outcome of 0.4%.

USD - Non-Farm Employment Change​

The Non-Farm Employment Change measures the change in the number of employed individuals in the economy during the previous month, excluding those in the farming sector. This indicator is crucial for currency traders because a higher-than-expected 'actual' figure compared to the 'forecast' typically signals a positive economic outlook, leading to currency appreciation. Job creation is a key leading indicator of consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of overall economic activity. Thus, strong employment figures often suggest a robust economy and can influence currency values accordingly.

In October 2024, U.S. employment data revealed minimal change, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 12,000 jobs, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment growth was observed in health care, which added 52,000 jobs, and government sectors, which grew by 40,000 jobs. However, manufacturing employment dropped by 46,000 due to strike activity, and temporary help services lost 49,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% to $35.46, marking a 4.0% increase over the past year. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which impacted southeastern states, may have influenced October data collection rates, but their effect on national employment and earnings estimates remains unclear.​

TL;DR

Category	Details

Nonfarm Payrolls

Increased by 12,000 jobs.

Unemployment Rate

Steady at 4.1%.

Sector Gains

- Health Care

+52,000 jobs.

- Government

+40,000 jobs.

Sector Losses

- Manufacturing

-46,000 jobs (due to strikes).

- Temporary Help Services

-49,000 jobs.

Average Hourly Earnings

Increased by 0.4% to $35.46 (+4.0% YoY).

External Factors

Hurricanes Helene and Milton may have affected data collection, but national employment and earnings impacts remain unclear.​

The forecast projected 218,000 jobs, significantly higher than the actual outcome of 12,000.

USD - Unemployment Rate​

The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment over the previous month. When the actual rate is lower than the forecasted rate, it is generally positive for the currency. Traders pay close attention to this figure because, despite being a lagging indicator, it reflects overall economic health and is closely linked to consumer spending. Additionally, the unemployment rate is crucial for shaping monetary policy, making it a key concern for policymakers and investors alike.

The U.S. unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in October 2024, despite disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton in the southeastern U.S., according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Total nonfarm payroll employment saw a slight increase of 12,000 jobs, with gains in health care (+52,000) and government (+40,000) offset by losses in temporary help services (-49,000) and manufacturing (-46,000), the latter impacted by strike activity. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% to $35.46, reflecting a 4.0% increase over the past year, while the average workweek remained stable at 34.3 hours. Although data collection was challenging in storm-affected areas, the BLS did not alter its estimation procedures.

TL;DR

• Unemployment Rate: Held steady at 4.1%.
• Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Increased by 12,000 jobs, a significant slowdown from the prior 12-month average gain of 194,000 jobs.
• Sector Employment Changes:
  • Health Care: Added 52,000 jobs, aligning with the average monthly gain over the past year.
  • Government: Grew by 40,000 jobs, consistent with recent trends.
  • Temporary Help Services: Declined by 49,000 jobs.
  • Manufacturing: Decreased by 46,000 jobs, primarily due to strike activity in the transportation equipment sector.
• Average Hourly Earnings: Rose by 0.4% to $35.46, marking a 4.0% increase over the past year.
• Average Workweek: Remained unchanged at 34.3 hours.

The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.1%, consistent with the previous month's figure.

The upcoming release of key US labor market data, including Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate, is scheduled for Friday at 1:30 PM GMT. These metrics are expected to provide critical insights into employment trends and economic performance.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

10th December 2024

Tuesday

​

Australia’s Reserve Bank is set to announce its Cash Rate decision, closely watched for clues on monetary policy direction. Influenced by recent inflation and employment data, the decision could impact borrowing costs, inflation control, and consumer spending amid economic challenges. ​

AUD - Cash Rate​

The Cash Rate refers to the interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial institutions. A rate higher than the forecast is typically positive for the currency. Traders closely monitor this rate, as short-term interest rates are a key driver of currency valuation, with other indicators primarily analyzed to anticipate rate changes.


On November 5, 2024, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board decided to maintain the cash rate target at 4.35% and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.25%. The Board acknowledged that underlying inflation remained elevated despite a significant decrease since 2022, largely influenced by temporary cost of living relief and declines in fuel and electricity prices. Headline inflation was recorded at 2.8% in the September quarter, down from 3.8% in the June quarter, though underlying inflation persisted at 3.5%. Forecasts suggested that inflation would not return sustainably to the target midpoint of 2.5% until 2026. Economic growth remained weak, constrained by reduced real disposable incomes and restrictive financial conditions, though consumer demand showed resilience due to spending by temporary residents. Labour market conditions stayed tight with a steady unemployment rate at 4.1% and high participation levels, while wage pressures eased slightly against weak productivity growth. The Board noted uncertainties in the global outlook, as some central banks eased monetary policy, and geopolitical risks remained high, especially regarding China’s economic policy impact. Prioritizing a sustainable return to target inflation within a reasonable timeframe, the Board expressed its commitment to maintaining restrictive policy until confident of inflation moving towards the target range.​

TL;DR

Date	Event
November 5, 2024	RBA maintained the cash rate target at 4.35% and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.25%.

Key Highlights	Details
Inflation	- Headline inflation: 2.8% (Sep quarter), down from 3.8% (Jun quarter). - Underlying inflation: 3.5%, expected to reach 2.5% midpoint by 2026. - Driven by cost of living relief, fuel, and electricity price declines.
Economic Growth	- Growth remains weak, constrained by reduced disposable incomes and tight financial conditions. - Consumer demand supported by spending by temporary residents.
Labour Market	- Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. - High participation and easing wage pressures despite weak productivity growth.
Global Outlook	- Geopolitical risks remain high. - China’s economic policies and easing by some central banks pose uncertainties.
Policy Stance	- RBA committed to restrictive policy until confident of inflation nearing target range.

Australia’s Cash Rate forecast stands at 4.35%, unchanged from the previous outcome, signaling steady monetary policy expectations.​

Australia is set to announce its Cash Rate decision on Tuesday at 3:30 AM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

11th December 2024

Wednesday​

On Wednesday, significant economic updates are expected from both the United States and Canada, drawing the attention of global markets. The U.S. will release its latest inflation figures, offering insights into price trends and potential monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Canada will announce its Overnight Rate decision, a key indicator of the Bank of Canada’s stance on interest rates and its approach to managing economic conditions. These announcements are likely to impact currency valuations and market sentiment, as traders and investors assess their implications for future economic policies.​

USD - Core CPI m/m​

Core CPI (month-over-month) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. A result higher than the forecast is typically seen as positive for the currency. Consumer prices are a major driver of overall inflation, which plays a critical role in currency valuation. When inflation rises, central banks often respond by increasing interest rates to meet their mandate of controlling price stability, making Core CPI a closely watched indicator by traders and economists alike.


The core consumer price index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in October, matching forecasts and bringing the annual core inflation rate to 3.3%. Shelter costs, a key driver, increased 0.4% for the month and 4.9% year-over-year, accounting for over half of the overall CPI gain. Used vehicle prices jumped 2.7%, while airline fares rose 3.2%, and egg prices dropped 6.4% but remained 30.4% higher annually. The data bolstered expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, but uncertainty about inflation and future policy under the incoming Trump administration has tempered expectations for further cuts in 2025.​

TL;DR

• Core CPI (excluding food and energy): Rose 0.3% in October, with an annual increase of 3.3%, aligning with forecasts.​
• Shelter costs: Increased 0.4% monthly and 4.9% year-over-year, contributing over half of the overall CPI gain.​
• Used vehicle prices: Jumped 2.7% in October.​
• Airline fares: Rose 3.2% for the month.​
• Egg prices: Dropped 6.4% in October but remained 30.4% higher than the previous year.​
• Federal Reserve outlook: Data supports expectations for a December rate cut, though uncertainty about inflation and policy under the incoming Trump administration clouds 2025 rate forecasts.​

The forecast for Core CPI m/m is 0.3%, consistent with the previous result.

​

USD - CPI m/m

The CPI m/m measures changes in consumer goods and service prices, where higher-than-forecast values benefit the currency; it's crucial to traders as it reflects inflation trends influencing central bank interest rate decisions, derived from comparing sampled average prices.


In October 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month, maintaining the trend from the previous three months and aligning with expectations. The increase was driven primarily by a 0.4% rise in shelter costs, which accounted for more than half of the gain, while food prices edged up 0.2% and energy costs remained flat. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also climbed 0.3%, consistent with forecasts. Notable price increases included used cars and trucks (2.7%), airline fares (3.2%), and medical care (0.4%), while declines were seen in apparel (-1.5%), communication (-0.6%), and household furnishings.​

TL;DR

• Overall CPI: Increased 0.2% in October, consistent with the previous three months and forecasts.​
• Key Driver: Shelter costs rose 0.4%, contributing over half of the CPI gain.​
• Food Prices: Edged up 0.2%.​
• Energy Costs: Remained flat.​
• Core CPI (excludes food & energy): Climbed 0.3%, matching expectations.​
• Notable Increases:
  • Used cars and trucks: +2.7%​
  • Airline fares: +3.2%​
  • Medical care: +0.4%​
• Notable Declines:
  • Apparel: -1.5%​
  • Communication: -0.6%​
  • Household furnishings: -0.4%​

The CPI m/m forecast is 0.3%, an increase from the previous outcome of 0.2%.

USD - CPI y/y​

The CPI y/y measures the annual change in consumer goods and service prices, where higher-than-forecast values benefit the currency; it is vital to traders as it indicates inflation trends that drive central bank interest rate decisions, derived by comparing sampled average prices year-over-year.


The U.S. annual inflation rate rose to 2.6% in October 2024, up from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase in seven months and aligning with market expectations. This rise, driven largely by shelter costs, which climbed 4.9% year-over-year, reflects moderating declines in energy prices and slower food inflation at 2.1%. Monthly consumer price growth held steady at 0.2%, with shelter accounting for over half of the gain. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained unchanged at 3.3% annually, further signaling persistent price pressures in key categories despite easing elsewhere.​

TL;DR

• Annual Inflation Rate: Rose to 2.6% in October, up from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase in seven months and meeting expectations.​
• Key Driver: Shelter costs increased 4.9% year-over-year, contributing significantly to inflation.​
• Energy Prices: Declines moderated, slowing the downward pressure on overall inflation.​
• Food Inflation: Slowed to 2.1% year-over-year.​
• Monthly Consumer Price Growth: Held steady at 0.2%, with shelter accounting for over half the increase.​
• Core Inflation (excludes food & energy): Unchanged at 3.3% annually, indicating persistent price pressures in certain categories.​

The CPI y/y forecast is 2.7%, up from the previous outcome of 2.6%.

The upcoming inflation data is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 1:30 PM GMT, providing critical insights for market analysis.​

CAD - Overnight Rate​

The Overnight Rate represents the interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds. Higher-than-expected rates often strengthen the currency, as traders closely monitor this key indicator to predict future rate movements.


The Bank of Canada reduced its policy interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing the overnight rate target to 3.75% as part of its efforts to manage economic growth and inflation while normalizing its balance sheet. The rate cut was driven by slower economic growth, with Canada's GDP slowing from 2% in the first half of the year to 1.75% in the latter half. Inflation decreased from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September, supported by lower global oil prices. However, challenges persisted, including a 6.5% unemployment rate and high shelter costs. Despite these issues, the Bank projected moderate GDP growth in the coming years, forecasting 1.2% in 2024 and over 2% in 2025 and 2026. It also indicated the possibility of further interest rate reductions depending on future economic conditions.​

TL;DR

Category	Details

Policy Rate Cut

Reduced by 50 basis points to 3.75%.

Reason for Rate Cut

Slowing GDP growth: 2% (H1) to 1.75% (H2) in 2024.

Inflation

Declined from 2.7% (June) to 1.6% (September), aided by lower oil prices.

Unemployment Rate

6.5%.

Shelter Costs

Remain high despite other easing pressures.

GDP Growth Forecast

2024: 1.2%; 2025-2026: Above 2%.

Future Rate Outlook

Potential for further reductions based on economic conditions.

The forecast for Canada's Overnight Rate stands at 3.25%, down from the previous outcome of 3.75%.

Canada is set to announce its Overnight Rate on Wednesday at 2:45 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

12th December 2024

Thursday

​

On December 12th, several key economic announcements will shape the markets. Australia kicks off with its Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures, providing insights into its labor market. Switzerland follows with the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announcing its Policy Rate decision. The Eurozone will take the spotlight next as the European Central Bank (ECB) releases its Main Refinancing Rate, a key indicator of monetary policy direction. Finally, the U.S. will report Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, offering a comprehensive view of inflation and labor market trends. These updates are crucial for gauging global economic momentum.​

AUD - Employment Change​

Australia’s labor market showed signs of slowing in October, with Employment Change figures revealing a modest addition of 15,900 jobs, significantly lower than September’s revised 61,300 and the forecasted 25,000. Full-time employment grew by 9,700 jobs, while part-time roles increased by 6,200, both down from previous gains. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, matching market expectations, but the participation rate dipped slightly to 67.1% from 67.2%. The data highlights a cooling trend in job growth, raising concerns about the broader economic outlook.​

TL;DR

• Job Growth Slows: October saw a modest addition of 15,900 jobs, compared to September's revised 61,300 and the forecasted 25,000.​
• Employment Breakdown: Full-time jobs increased by 9,700; part-time jobs rose by 6,200.​
• Unemployment Rate: Held steady at 4.1%, in line with expectations.​
• Participation Rate: Dropped slightly to 67.1% from 67.2%.​
• Economic Concerns: Data indicates a cooling trend in job growth, raising concerns about the broader economy.​

The forecast stands at 26,000 compared to previous 15,900 outcome.​

AUD - Unemployment Rate​

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in October 2024, marking the third consecutive month at this level. While employment rose by 16,000 people and unemployment increased by 8,000, population growth outpaced these changes, leading to a slight dip in the participation rate to 67.1%. Employment growth slowed to 0.1%, the lowest rate in recent months, though the employment-to-population ratio remained at a historic high of 64.4%. Hours worked also grew by 0.1%, aligning with employment growth. The underemployment rate dropped to 6.2%, and the underutilisation rate stayed at 10.4%, reflecting a relatively tight labour market. Female participation rates reached a record 63.1%, highlighting a significant post-pandemic increase.​

TL;DR

Metric	October 2024 Value	Details

Unemployment Rate

4.1%

Steady for the third consecutive month.

Employment Change

+16,000

Employment rose, but growth slowed to 0.1%.

Unemployment Change

+8,000

Increase partly due to population growth.

Participation Rate

67.1%

Slight dip from population growth impact.

Employment-to-Population

64.4%

Maintained historic high.

Hours Worked

+0.1%

Aligned with employment growth.

Underemployment Rate

6.2%

Dropped, indicating tighter labour market.

Underutilisation Rate

10.4%

Remained steady.

Female Participation

63.1%

Record high, boosted post-pandemic.

The forecast stands at 4.2%, up from the previous 4.1%.

The Employment Change and Unemployment Rate report is scheduled for release on Thursday at 12:30 AM GMT.​

​

CHF - SNB Policy Rate

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced a reduction in its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down to 1.0%, effective from 27 September 2024. This decision followed a significant decrease in inflationary pressure, aided by the strengthening of the Swiss franc and a decline in imported goods prices. In August, inflation stood at 1.1%, down from 1.4% in May, and the SNB projected it would average 1.2% in 2024, dropping further to 0.6% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026. The central bank remained prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, and future rate cuts were anticipated to maintain price stability. Swiss economic growth had been solid, particularly in the chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors, though overall growth was expected to slow due to the franc's appreciation and global economic moderation. The SNB anticipated GDP growth of around 1% for 2024, with a slight rise in unemployment and a temporary dip in production capacity utilization. Risks remained, including potential global geopolitical tensions and persistently high inflation in some countries. Growth was forecast to improve in 2025, with GDP expected to increase by 1.5%.​

TL;DR

Metric/Aspect	Details

Policy Rate Change

Reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 1.0% (effective 27 September 2024).

Reason for Rate Cut

Lower inflationary pressure, strong Swiss franc, and reduced imported goods prices.

Inflation Rates

2024: 1.2% (projected), 2025: 0.6% (projected), 2026: 0.7% (projected).

Current Inflation

August 2024: 1.1% (down from 1.4% in May 2024).

Economic Growth (GDP)

2024: ~1% (projected), 2025: 1.5% (projected).

Economic Sectors

Growth solid in chemicals and pharmaceuticals; overall slowing due to franc appreciation.

Unemployment Rate

Slight increase anticipated in 2024.

Capacity Utilization

Temporary dip expected in production capacity.

Global Risks

Geopolitical tensions, high inflation in some countries.

SNB Actions

Prepared to intervene in forex markets if necessary; future rate cuts possible.

The forecast stands at 0.75%, compared to the previous 1.00%.

The SNB policy rate will be announced on Thursday at 8:30 AM GMT.

EUR - Main Refinancing Rate​

The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 3.40%, effective October 23, 2024. This marked the third consecutive rate cut that year. The move, accompanied by cuts to the deposit facility and marginal lending facility rates, reflected the ECB's updated inflation outlook, which showed disinflation had progressed as anticipated. Despite inflation falling below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time in over three years, rising wage pressures and economic uncertainties continued to influence inflation dynamics. Inflation was projected to rise in subsequent months but was expected to decline toward the 2% target by 2025. The ECB had remained focused on maintaining restrictive monetary policy to meet its medium-term inflation goals, relying on a data-driven approach for future rate decisions.​

TL;DR

Key Information	Details

Rate Cut

25 basis points reduction to 3.40%

Effective Date

October 23, 2024

Number of Rate Cuts in 2024

Third consecutive rate cut

Additional Rate Cuts

Deposit facility and marginal lending facility rates also reduced

Reason for Rate Cut

Updated inflation outlook, showing progress in disinflation

Inflation

Fell below 2% target for the first time in over three years

Future Inflation Expectations

Expected to rise initially, but decline toward 2% target by 2025

Economic Influences

Rising wage pressures, economic uncertainties

Monetary Policy Focus

Maintained restrictive stance to meet medium-term inflation goals

Future Rate Decisions

Data-driven approach

The forecast stands at 3.15%, down from the previous 3.40%.

The next announcement of the Main Refinancing Rate is scheduled for Thursday at 1:15 PM GMT.

USD - Core PPI m/m​

Core producer prices in the United States, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% in October 2024 from the prior month, matching market expectations and accelerating from a 0.2% rise in September. Annually, core producer prices rose 3.1%, the highest in four months, following an upwardly revised 2.9% gain in September and slightly exceeding forecasts of a 3% increase. This suggests continued pricing pressures in the production pipeline, reinforcing expectations of persistent inflationary trends in core sectors.​

TL;DR

Key Information	Details

Monthly Change

Increased by 0.3% in October 2024 (from September)

Monthly Change (Previous Month)

0.2% rise in September

Annual Change

Increased by 3.1% in October 2024

Previous Annual Change

2.9% (revised for September 2024)

Market Expectations

October’s rise matched expectations

Inflation Trends

Suggests persistent inflationary pressures in core sectors

Forecasts

Annual increase slightly exceeded forecasts of 3%

Implication

Continued pricing pressures in the production pipeline

The forecast stands at 0.2%, compared to the previous outcome of 0.3%.

USD - PPI m/m​

Factory gate prices in the U.S. rose 0.2% month-over-month in October 2024, following an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in September and meeting market expectations. Service prices increased by 0.3%, driven in part by a 3.6% surge in portfolio management costs, while goods prices edged up 0.1%, reversing two months of declines, boosted by an 8.4% rise in carbon steel scrap. On an annual basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 2.4%, exceeding forecasts of 2.3% and up from a revised 1.9% in September. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the annual core rate accelerating to 3.1% from a revised 2.9%, slightly above market expectations of 3%. These figures highlight persistent inflationary pressures across both services and goods.​

TL;DR

Key Information	Details

Monthly Change (Overall)

Increased by 0.2% in October 2024 (from September)

Monthly Change (Previous Month)

Upwardly revised 0.1% in September

Service Prices

Increased by 0.3%, driven by 3.6% rise in portfolio management

Goods Prices

Rose by 0.1%, reversing two months of declines, boosted by 8.4% rise in carbon steel scrap

Annual Change (PPI)

Rose 2.4%, exceeding forecasts of 2.3%

Previous Annual Change (PPI)

Revised 1.9% in September

Core PPI (Excluding Food and Energy)

Monthly rise of 0.3%

Core Annual Change (PPI)

Increased to 3.1%, slightly exceeding market expectations of 3%

Implication

Persistent inflationary pressures across services and goods

​

The forecast remains at 0.2%, unchanged from the previous outcome.

USD – Unemployment Claims​

In the week ending November 30, 2024, seasonally adjusted Initial Jobless Claims in the United States rose to 224,000, marking a 9,000 increase from the prior week's revised level of 215,000. The 4-week moving average also edged up to 218,250, reflecting a 750 increase from the revised average of 217,500. Meanwhile, the insured unemployment rate for the week ending November 23 decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%. Insured unemployment figures declined to 1,871,000, down 25,000 from the previous week's revised total of 1,896,000, with the 4-week moving average slightly reduced to 1,884,250. Historically, Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. have averaged 363,450 since 1967, peaking at 6,137,000 in April 2020 and hitting a record low of 162,000 in November 1968. These figures suggest a modest uptick in claims but remain relatively low compared to historical trends.​

TL;DR

Key Information	Details

Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Nov 30)

224,000, up 9,000 from the previous week (215,000)

4-Week Moving Average (Initial Claims)

218,250, up 750 from the previous week's revised average (217,500)

Insured Unemployment Rate (Week Ending Nov 23)

Decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%

Insured Unemployment (Week Ending Nov 23)

1,871,000, down 25,000 from the previous week's revised total (1,896,000)

4-Week Moving Average (Insured Unemployment)

Slightly reduced to 1,884,250

Historical Averages (Initial Jobless Claims)

Average since 1967: 363,450; Peak: 6,137,000 (April 2020); Low: 162,000 (November 1968)

Implication

Modest uptick in claims, but still relatively low compared to historical trends

The forecast stands at 221,000, compared to the previous outcome of 224,000.

The upcoming releases for Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims are set for Thursday at 1:30 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

13th December 2024

Friday
​

The United Kingdom is preparing to release its monthly GDP (m/m) figures, offering critical insights into the nation's economic performance. This announcement will shed light on the country's short-term growth trajectory and provide valuable data for policymakers, investors, and analysts assessing the state of the UK economy.​

GBP – GDP m/m​

The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in September 2024, its first decline in five months, following a 0.2% rise in August and missing growth expectations of 0.2%. Production output dropped by 0.5%, driven by a 1% fall in manufacturing and declines in water supply (-0.7%) and energy-related sectors (-1.9%). The services sector stagnated, with a notable 2.6% drop in computer programming and consultancy activities. Construction output grew slightly by 0.1%, supported by a 0.4% increase in repair and maintenance, though new project activity fell by 0.2%.​

TL;DR

Sector	Change	Details
Overall UK GDP	-0.1%	First decline in five months
Production Output	-0.5%	-1% in manufacturing, declines in water supply (-0.7%) and energy sectors (-1.9%)
Services Sector	Stagnant	-2.6% in computer programming and consultancy
Construction Output	+0.1%	+0.4% in repair and maintenance, -0.2% in new projects

The GDP month-on-month forecast stands at 0.1%, an improvement from the previous outcome of -0.1%.

The next GDP m/m report is scheduled for release on Friday at 7:00 AM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

16th December 2024

Monday
​

Next Monday, December 16, market attention will sharply focus on pivotal economic updates as major economies unveil their latest PMI data. France, Germany, the UK, and the US are set to release Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI figures, providing a vital snapshot of economic health and sector performance. These releases are anticipated to significantly influence market movements, offering traders and analysts crucial insights ahead of year-end strategies.​

EUR - French Flash Manufacturing PMI​

In November 2024, France's HCOB Manufacturing PMI fell to 43.1, down from 44.5 in October and below the initial estimate of 43.2, marking the 22nd consecutive month of contraction. New orders declined at the steepest rate since May 2020, with both domestic and international demand weakening, especially from the US and Germany. This led to significant cuts in purchasing activity and inventory levels, as firms focused on preserving cash flow. Output contracted sharply, particularly in construction, cosmetics, and automotive sectors. Employment continued to decrease, mostly through the non-replacement of temporary workers. While input costs rose moderately, firms were forced to reduce selling prices at the fastest rate in over a year due to intense competitive pressures. Looking ahead, business confidence remained pessimistic, with firms cautious about future output amid ongoing demand issues and economic uncertainty.​

TL;DR

Category​	Details​

PMI Data​

November 2024: 43.1 (down from 44.5 in October, below 43.2 initial estimate)​

Contraction​

22nd consecutive month of contraction​

New Orders​

Steepest decline since May 2020; weakened domestic and international demand (US, Germany)​

Purchasing Activity​

Significant cuts; focus on cash flow preservation​

Inventory Levels​

Reduced due to lower demand​

Output​

Sharp contraction in construction, cosmetics, and automotive sectors​

Employment​

Continued decline, mostly through non-replacement of temporary workers​

Input Costs​

Moderate increase​

Selling Prices​

Reduced at the fastest rate in over a year due to competitive pressures​

Business Confidence​

Pessimistic; cautious outlook amid demand issues and economic uncertainty​

The Flash Manufacturing PMI is projected to be 43.0, slightly lower than the previous reading of 43.1.

EUR - French Flash Services PMI​

In November 2024, France's HCOB Services PMI dropped to 46.9, revised up from the initial estimate of 45.7 but down from 49.2 in October. This marked the sharpest contraction since January, driven by a significant decline in demand. New orders fell at their fastest pace in a year, influenced by economic uncertainty and tight budget constraints.​

TL;DR

PMI Data	November 2024: 46.9 (revised up from 45.7, down from 49.2 in October)
Contraction	Sharpest since January 2024
New Orders	Fastest decline in a year; impacted by economic uncertainty and tight budget constraints
Demand	Significant decline

The Flash Services PMI is expected to be 46.4, a decline from the previous result of 46.9.

The French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI will be released on Monday at 8:15 AM GMT.

EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI​

Germany’s Flash Manufacturing PMI Output Index rose slightly to 43.2 in November 2024, a 5-month high, but the economy continued to contract, marking a fifth consecutive monthly decline in business activity. Both manufacturing and services sectors reported weaker demand, with services activity contracting for the first time in nine months, driven by reduced orders and customer uncertainty. Employment fell for the sixth straight month as job cuts persisted across sectors, although the rate of decline slowed. Inflationary pressures increased, with input costs and output prices rising at the fastest pace in three months, particularly in the service sector. Manufacturers continued to face falling export orders and prolonged inventory reductions amid weak global demand. Despite these challenges, business confidence improved slightly, reflecting hopes for economic recovery after next year’s elections. However, political and economic uncertainty, including trade tensions and cost-cutting measures in the automotive industry, dampened the overall outlook.​

TL;DR

Category	Details

PMI Data

Manufacturing PMI Output Index: 43.2 (5-month high, still contracting)

Business Activity

Fifth consecutive monthly decline

Sector Performance

- Manufacturing: Falling export orders, prolonged inventory reductions

- Services: First contraction in 9 months, reduced orders, customer uncertainty

Employment

Decline for the sixth month; slower rate of job cuts

Inflation

Input costs and output prices rising at the fastest pace in 3 months, led by the service sector

Demand

Weaker across both sectors, reflecting global demand issues

Business Confidence

Slight improvement; hopes for post-election recovery

Challenges

Political/economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and automotive industry cost-cutting measures

The German Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 43.8, up from the previous result of 43.0.

EUR – German Flash Services PMI​

In November 2024, Germany's HCOB Services PMI fell to 49.3, down from 51.6 in October and revised lower from an initial estimate of 49.4, marking the first contraction in business activity in nine months. Weaker demand, driven by political and economic uncertainty, led to a third consecutive month of falling new orders, with international demand also declining, though at a slower pace. Employment decreased for the fifth month in a row, the longest streak of job cuts since 2009, though at a slower pace than in previous months. Rising wages contributed to higher input costs, resulting in the steepest increase in output prices since April. Service providers' growth expectations for the next 12 months weakened slightly amid ongoing uncertainty.​

TL;DR

Category	Details

PMI Data

Services PMI: 49.3 (down from 51.6 in October, revised from 49.4)

Contraction

First contraction in business activity in nine months

New Orders

Declined for the third consecutive month; slower decline in international demand

Employment

Decreased for the fifth month, the longest streak since 2009; slower rate of job cuts

Input Costs

Increased due to rising wages

Output Prices

Steepest rise since April 2024

Business Confidence

Growth expectations weakened slightly due to political and economic uncertainty

The German Flash Services PMI is projected to be 49.2, slightly down from the previous reading of 49.3.

The German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI will be released on Monday at 8:30 AM GMT.

UK - Flash Manufacturing PMI​

In November 2024, the S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI was revised down to 48, from an initial 48.6 and compared to 49.9 in October, signaling the sharpest contraction since February. Output declined for the first time in seven months, driven by the steepest drop in new orders since February. Economic uncertainty, weak demand, and rising costs led to reductions in staffing, purchasing, and inventory. The export sector also struggled, with weaker demand from the US, China, and the EU contributing to a drop in new export business. Supply chain disruptions, including the Red Sea crisis and port issues, caused delays and cost increases. Despite these challenges, the overall outlook for the sector remained positive.​

TL;DR

Category	Details

PMI Data

Manufacturing PMI: 48 (revised down from 48.6, compared to 49.9 in October)

Contraction

Sharpest since February 2024

Output

Declined for the first time in seven months

New Orders

Steepest drop since February, impacted by economic uncertainty and weak demand

Employment

Reductions due to rising costs and weak demand

Export Sector

Declined, with weaker demand from the US, China, and the EU

Supply Chain

Disruptions from the Red Sea crisis and port issues caused delays and cost increases

Purchasing & Inventory

Reduced as firms adjusted to weaker demand

Business Outlook

Remained positive despite challenges

The Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.1, slightly higher than the previous reading of 48.0.

UK - Flash Services PMI​

In November 2024, the S&P Global UK Services PMI was revised up to 50.8, from an initial 50 but down from 52 in October, indicating slow growth in business activity—the weakest since the expansion began in November 2023. Service providers faced challenges due to economic uncertainty and concerns over tax hikes in the Autumn Budget. New business volumes increased for the thirteenth straight month, driven by strong consumer spending, though growth slowed to its weakest pace since June. Foreign demand moderated, despite stronger interest from US clients. Employment fell for the second month, though at a slower rate. Cost inflation accelerated to its fastest pace since April, and price charges rose to their highest level since July. Confidence in the business outlook dropped to its lowest since December 2022.​

TL;DR

Category	Details

PMI Data

Services PMI: 50.8 (revised up from 50, down from 52 in October)

Growth

Slowest expansion since November 2023

New Business

Increased for the 13th consecutive month; slowest growth since June

Foreign Demand

Moderated, with stronger interest from US clients

Employment

Declined for the second month, though at a slower pace

Cost Inflation

Accelerated to the fastest pace since April

Price Charges

Increased to the highest level since July

Business Confidence

Dropped to the lowest since December 2022, influenced by economic uncertainty and tax concerns

The Flash Services PMI is projected to be 51.0, up from the previous result of 50.8.

The Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI will be announced on Monday at 9:30 AM GMT.

USD - Flash Manufacturing PMI​

In November 2024, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 49.7, up from a preliminary 48.8 and compared to 48.5 in October, signaling near stabilization in the sector. The decline in new orders slowed significantly, and stronger confidence about the future led to increased hiring. Despite this, output continued to contract. Input cost inflation weakened to its slowest pace in a year, while output prices rose slightly faster. Optimism for the year ahead reached its highest level in two and a half years, driven by reduced election uncertainty and expectations of stronger economic growth and increased protectionism under the upcoming Trump administration in 2025.​

TL;DR

Category	Details

PMI Data

Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 (revised up from 48.8, compared to 48.5 in October)

Sector Trend

Near stabilization

New Orders

Decline slowed significantly

Output

Continued to contract

Employment

Increased due to stronger confidence about the future

Input Costs

Inflation weakened to its slowest pace in a year

Output Prices

Rose slightly faster

Business Confidence

Highest in two and a half years, driven by reduced election uncertainty and policy expectations

The Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.0, an increase from the previous result of 49.7.

USD – Flash Services PMI​

In November 2024, the S&P Global US Services PMI was revised down to 56.1, from a preliminary 57, but still higher than October’s 55, reflecting the fastest growth in the sector since March 2022. Both business activity and new orders accelerated, with some firms attributing the growth to the end of election uncertainty and lower interest rates. However, companies remained cautious about hiring, leading to a slight reduction in employment and a buildup of outstanding business. While input costs continued to rise sharply, inflation eased, and output prices increased at the slowest pace in four-and-a-half years. Overall, firms were optimistic about future business activity.​

TL;DR

Category	Details

PMI Data

Services PMI: 56.1 (revised down from 57, up from 55 in October)

Growth

Fastest in the sector since March 2022

Business Activity

Accelerated, driven by reduced election uncertainty and lower interest rates

New Orders

Increased

Employment

Slight reduction; led to a buildup of outstanding business

Input Costs

Continued to rise sharply, though inflation eased

Output Prices

Increased at the slowest pace in four-and-a-half years

Business Confidence

Optimistic about future activity

The Flash Services PMI is projected to be 56.0, slightly down from the previous reading of 56.1.

The Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI will be released on Monday at 2:45 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

17th December 2024

Tuesday
​

On December 17th, markets are set for a day of significant economic data releases that could drive major movements. The UK is poised to unveil its Claimant Count Change, providing insight into the health of its labor market. Meanwhile, Canada will publish its latest inflation figures, offering a key gauge of price pressures in the economy. In the U.S., all eyes will be on the Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales data for November, critical indicators of consumer spending and overall economic momentum. These high-impact releases are likely to shape market sentiment and influence trading strategies across key currency pairs.
​

GBP - Claimant Count Change​

The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK rose by 26,700 to reach 1.806 million in October 2024, marking a notable increase compared to the revised rise of 10,100 in September. However, the latest figure fell short of market forecasts, which had predicted a steeper growth of 30,500. Despite the slower-than-expected rise, the data pointed to a continuing upward trend in claims, reflecting ongoing challenges in the UK labor market amid a backdrop of economic uncertainty and tightening financial conditions. Analysts noted that while the increase was milder than anticipated, it still signaled a gradual worsening of unemployment pressures.​

TL;DR

• Unemployment Claims in the UK rose by 26,700 to reach 1.806 million in October 2024.
• The increase was higher than the revised rise of 10,100 in September 2024.
• Market forecasts had predicted a steeper rise of 30,500 claims.
• Despite the slower-than-expected increase, the data indicates a continuing upward trend in unemployment claims.
• The rise reflects ongoing challenges in the UK labor market amid economic uncertainty and tightening financial conditions.
• Analysts noted that while the increase was milder than expected, it still signals a gradual worsening of unemployment pressures.

The forecast stands at 28,200, compared to the previous outcome of 26,700.

The upcoming Claimant Count Change is set to be released on Tuesday at 7:00 AM GMT.

CAD - CPI m/m​

Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-over-month in October 2024, exceeding the historical average monthly increase of 0.29% observed since 1950. This marks a notable acceleration in price growth, aligning with the annual inflation uptick to 2%. The monthly increase reflects smaller declines in gasoline prices and faster growth in grocery and property-related costs, despite easing pressures in the rental market and mortgage interest rates. Historically, Canada's CPI has ranged from a high of 2.6% in January 1991 to a low of -1.3% in June 1959.​

TL;DR

• Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-over-month in October 2024.
• This increase exceeds the historical average monthly rise of 0.29% since 1950.
• Annual inflation also increased to 2%.
• Price growth was driven by smaller gasoline price declines and higher grocery and property-related costs.
• Rental market pressures and mortgage rates eased.
• Historical CPI range: 2.6% (January 1991) to -1.3% (June 1959).

The forecast for the CPI m/m stands at 0.1%, a decrease compared to the previous 0.4% outcome.

CAD – Median CPI y/y​

Canada's median Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 2.5% year-on-year in October 2024, up from 2.3% in September, which had marked its lowest level since April 2021. The October figure surpassed market expectations of a 2.4% rise, signaling a slight acceleration in underlying inflation pressures. This comes as headline inflation also reached the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, driven by moderating declines in gasoline prices and faster price increases in grocery and property-related costs, despite some relief in the rental market and mortgage interest rates. The data adds complexity to the central bank's approach as it evaluates the pace and size of anticipated interest rate cuts.​

TL;DR

• Canada's median Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.5% year-on-year in October 2024, up from 2.3% in September.
• The October increase surpassed expectations of 2.4%, signaling underlying inflation pressures.
• Headline inflation reached the Bank of Canada's 2% target, driven by moderating gasoline price declines and faster grocery and property cost increases.
• The data adds complexity to the Bank of Canada's approach to interest rate cuts.

The forecast for the Median Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year (y/y) is 2.4%, slightly lower than the previous 2.5% outcome.

​

CAD - Trimmed CPI y/y

Canada's trimmed-mean core inflation rate, a key measure used by the Bank of Canada to gauge underlying inflation, rose to 2.6% year-on-year in October 2024, rebounding from 2.4% in September, which was its lowest level since April 2021. This increase exceeded market expectations of 2.4% and reflects a resurgence in core inflation pressures as headline inflation returned to the central bank’s 2% target. The rise comes amid moderating declines in gasoline prices and higher annual increases in grocery and property-related costs, with the data expected to influence the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decisions, including anticipated interest rate cuts in the coming months.​

TL;DR

• Canada's trimmed-mean core inflation rose to 2.6% year-on-year in October 2024, up from 2.4% in September.​
• This exceeded market expectations of 2.4%, indicating a resurgence in core inflation pressures.​
• The rise was driven by moderating gasoline price declines and higher grocery and property-related costs.​
• The data may influence the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decisions, including potential interest rate cuts in the near future.​

The forecast for the Trimmed CPI y/y stands at 2.5%, slightly lower than the previous outcome of 2.6%.

Canada's inflation figures will be released on Tuesday at 1:30 PM GMT.

USD - Core Retail Sales m/m​

U.S. retail sales excluding autos edged up by 0.1% in October 2024 compared to the previous month, following a stronger-than-expected 1% increase in September, according to revised data. The October gain fell short of market expectations of a 0.3% rise, indicating a slight cooling in consumer spending momentum. On an annual basis, retail sales excluding autos grew by 2.7%, reflecting continued, albeit slower, growth compared to the same period last year.​

TL;DR

• U.S. retail sales excluding autos rose by 0.1% in October 2024, following a stronger-than-expected 1% increase in September.​
• The October gain missed expectations of 0.3%, signaling a slight slowdown in consumer spending.​
• On an annual basis, retail sales grew by 2.7%, indicating continued but slower growth compared to last year.​

Core retail sales are projected to increase by 0.4%, a notable rise compared to the previous outcome of 0.1%.

USD - Retail Sales m/m​

U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% in October, continuing to highlight robust consumer spending that is driving steady economic growth. While the increase was less than September's 0.8% gain, sectors like auto dealers, restaurants, and electronics stores saw notable growth. The Commerce Department's report suggests the economy is on track for brisk growth in the fourth quarter, following a solid 2.8% annual growth rate in the previous quarter. Inflation has eased significantly from its 9.1% peak two years ago, with take-home pay outpacing rising prices for the past 18 months, though prices remain 20% higher than three years ago. Despite lingering economic concerns, consumer confidence has improved, with recession fears at their lowest since 2022. This sets the stage for a moderately strong holiday shopping season, with spending projected to grow by 2.5% to 3.5% compared to last year.​

TL;DR

Category​	Details​

Retail Sales Growth​

U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% in October 2024​

Sector Growth​

Auto dealers, restaurants, and electronics stores saw notable growth​

Economic Outlook​

Solid 2.8% annual growth in Q3, continued economic strength​

Inflation​

Eased significantly from 9.1% peak two years ago; take-home pay outpaces inflation​

Consumer Confidence​

Improved, recession fears at lowest since 2022​

Holiday Spending Forecast​

Projected growth of 2.5% to 3.5% in retail spending compared to last year​

The retail sales month-over-month forecast is 0.6%, up from the previous outcome of 0.4%.

The US will release its Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales data for the month on Tuesday at 1:30 PM GMT.​