Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD stabilises after reaching a seven-month high

The EURUSD rate has declined for the second consecutive session, failing to sustain the levels observed at the beginning of 2024. Find out more in our analysis dated 7 August 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• The EURUSD pair has stabilised after reaching a seven-month high
• Germany’s trade balance surplus decreased to 20.4 billion EUR
• The US recorded a trade balance deficit of 73.1 billion USD
• Markets anticipate a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September
• EURUSD forecast for 7 August 2024: 1.0880 and 1.0860

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate has stabilised near 1.0910 after rising to 1.1007. Investor concerns about a slowdown in the US economy were the primary drivers of the euro’s strengthening, while weak employment data have heightened expectations for a more substantial interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September.

Meanwhile, Germany’s trade surplus fell to 20.4 billion EUR in June, missing expectations due to declining exports and rising imports. At the same time, an unexpected 3.9% increase in Germany’s factory orders in July provided a positive signal for the manufacturing sector, which has been facing challenges.

In June 2024, the US recorded a trade deficit of 73.1 billion USD, which, while lower than the previous month, exceeded analysts’ forecasts. Exports of goods and services increased by 1.5% to 265.9 billion USD, reaching a four-month high. Imports rose by 0.6% to 339 billion USD, marking the highest reading since June 2022.

Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests that markets anticipate a significant 50-basis-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September, with additional reductions of over 100 basis points throughout the year. However, most analysts consider the recent sell-off in the US dollar an overreaction to weak employment data and do not expect aggressive Federal Reserve action before September.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD continues to correct after a surge

A decrease in France’s balance of trade and US initial jobless claims may fuel a continuation of the EURUSD correction. Find out more in our analysis dated 8 August 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• France’s exports: previously at 50.4 billion EUR
• France’s imports: previously at 58.2 billion EUR
• France’s balance of trade: previously at -8.0 billion EUR, forecasted at -7.5 billion EUR
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 249 thousand EUR, forecasted at 241 thousand
• EURUSD forecast for 8 August 2024: 1.0860 and 1.0820

Fundamental analysis

France’s exports have remained relatively stable at around 50.0 billion over the past several years, compared to the previous reading of 50.4 billion.

France’s imports have also remained steady within the 56-60 billion range over the past year, with the previous reading at 58.2 billion.

The balance of trade shows the difference between the value of a country’s exports and imports. A trade surplus indicates that the country exports more than imports, while a negative trade balance means the opposite. The forecast suggests that the trade balance could decrease by 0.5 billion. This may have no significant impact on the EURUSD rate at present, but it could potentially help strengthen the euro in the long term.

US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the employment market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment. Analysis for 8 August 2024 shows that initial jobless claims are projected to decrease to 241 thousand, which could positively impact the US dollar. If the actual reading exceeds the forecast, the EURUSD pair could continue its corrective wave.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises moderately, returning to the price area above 2,400 USD

XAUUSD price reversed upwards and closed yesterday’s session with a moderate gain, establishing a foothold above 2,400. The upward movement may continue. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 9 August 2024.

XAUUSD trading key points

• Market focus: gold prices are rising amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
• Current trend: gold is trading within a broad range; the long-term trend is upward
• XAUUSD forecast for 9 August 2024: 2,400 and 2,450

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes experienced sustained growth yesterday, returning to the price area above 2,400 USD. The downward correction appears to be over, and gold may test its all-time high of 2,483 in the short term.

Fundamentally, the XAUUSD rate is supported by expectations for an imminent US Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which will gradually cause the US dollar to lose ground. Gold is also in demand as a safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY may continue its ascent after a recent decline

A positive USDA report may support the US dollar and drive further growth in the USDJPY rate. Find out more in our analysis dated 12 August 2024

USDJPY trading key points

• US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on world agricultural supply and demand estimates
• A report on US federal budget execution: previously at -66.0 billion, forecasted at -254.3 billion
• USDJPY forecast for 12 August 2024: 150.00 and 155.25

Fundamental analysis

The monthly US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report provides up-to-date forecasts for global and national balances between the supply and use of key cereal crops, soybeans, derivative products, and cotton. Additionally, it includes data on US domestic supply and consumption of sugar and livestock products. Positive key indicators may support the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

The monthly federal budget execution report estimates the difference between government revenues and expenditures for a specific month by calculating the difference between inflows and spending. A negative reading indicates a budget deficit, while a positive reading suggests a surplus. Analysis for 12 August 2024 shows that a budget deficit is projected to increase to -254.3 billion US dollars. This could negatively impact the US dollar, causing the USDJPY rate to fall.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCHF is strengthening amid a mixed situation in Switzerland

Although the USDCHF rate is rising for the second consecutive session, it has yet to secure a position above the resistance level. Find out more in our analysis dated 13 August 2024.

USDCHF forecast: key trading points

• Switzerland’s consumer confidence index increased to -32.4 points in July 2024
• Retail sales in the Swiss economy fell by 2.2% year-over-year in June
• Unemployment numbers increased in July 2024, reaching a four-month high
• USDCHF forecast for 13 August 2024: 0.8645 and 0.8505

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar shows moderate strength. Tomorrow’s US Consumer Price Index could significantly influence forecasts for future Federal Reserve interest rate changes and increase volatility in the USDCHF rate. Analysts note that high CPI readings might limit an interest rate cut to 25 basis points, while low readings could lead to a reduction of 50 basis points or more in September.

Switzerland’s consumer confidence index rose to -32.4 points in July 2024, up by 4.2 points from the previous value and significantly above analysts’ forecasts. This indicates increased optimism among the population, although the overall sentiment remains negative.

Meanwhile, Switzerland’s retail sales unexpectedly decreased by 2.2% year-over-year in June 2024, marking a significant decline compared to the projected 0.5% growth and the previous reading.

The number of unemployed people rose by 3,198 in July 2024, reaching a four-month high of 107,716. Although the unemployment rate remained low at 2.3%, this raised concerns among investors. According to the USDCHF forecast for today, Switzerland’s weak economic data may support the growth of the US dollar.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Meta’s shares are trading at an all-time high. Is there potential for further growth?

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) stock is the only stock among the Magnificent Seven that did not fall after the release of its Q2 2024 report. The company showed robust performance over the past quarter. This article will provide a fundamental analysis of Meta Platforms, outlining its strengths and weaknesses and examining a forecast based on a technical analysis of Meta’s stock.

Meta Platforms Q2 2024 report

Meta announced solid financial Q2 2024 results. Below are the figures compared to the same period in 2023:

• Revenue – 39.74 billion USD (+22%)
• Net income – 13.46 billion USD (+73%)
• Earnings per share – 5.16 USD (+73%)
• Operating margin – 38% (+900 basis points)
• Advertising revenue – 38.20 billion USD (+21%)
• Number of daily active users – 3.27 billion (+7%)

Advertising remains the primary revenue stream, contributing to 96% of the company’s total revenue. The Reality Labs unit, which specialises in developing virtual and augmented reality (VR and AR) technologies, has only generated losses so far. By the end of Q2 2024 results, Reality Labs’ loss reached 4.50 billion USD, an increase of 21%.

Meta Platforms, Inc.’s forecast for Q3 2024

Meta’s Chief Financial Officer, Susan Li, forecasts revenue for Q3 2024 to be between 38.50 billion USD and 41.00 billion USD, representing a 12–20% increase compared to the same period in 2023. The Reality Labs division is expected to continue incurring operating losses, which are anticipated to grow as the company invests in new product development and expands its ecosystem.

Capital expenditures for 2024 are projected to be between 37.00 billion USD and 40.00 billion USD, 2.00 billion USD more than previously estimated. Further increases in spending are expected in 2025, as the company plans to invest in artificial intelligence research and the development of new products.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD may rise further to 1.3000

The British pound continues to strengthen against the US dollar despite scarce UK news. Find out more in our analysis dated 19 August 2024.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The Rightmove UK house price index (m/m): previously at -0.4%, currently at -1.5%
• A speech by Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller
• GBPUSD forecast for 19 August 2024: 1.2798 and 1.2630

Fundamental analysis

A monthly change in the Rightmove UK house price index was published today. The indicator shows how much the average price of housing property for sale has changed over the reporting period. Data above the forecast and the previous value is a positive factor for the pound sterling. Weaker-than-expected statistics reflect negative developments. Although the indicators are currently below the previous readings, they did not have a significant impact on the GBPUSD rate.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller will deliver a speech at the beginning of the US trading session and might shed light on the Fed’s monetary policy. A decision to change the US interest rate is expected in September; a reduction is only likely if inflation indicators stabilise. Analysis for 19 August 2024 shows that if the interest rate changes, this could further weaken the US dollar and push up the GBPUSD pair after a correction.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: employment market risks prompt the Fed to lower interest rates

The EURUSD rate slightly declines following two trading sessions of growth. Find out more in our analysis dated 20 August 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair corrects after two trading sessions of growth and reaching a 33-week high
• Investors refrain from making aggressive investment decisions ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
• Analysts suggest the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September
• EURUSD forecast for 20 August 2024: 1.0980, 1.0933, and 1.0880

Fundamental analysis

After the EURUSD pair reached a 33-week high, its growth slowed. Investors preferred to refrain from making significant bets ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech expected on Friday.

Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of the latest FOMC minutes scheduled for Wednesday as they should provide insight into further monetary policy actions. Analysts believe that the regulator may reduce interest rates as early as September. However, it is still unclear whether this will be a 25 or 50-basis-point cut. The market has probably already priced in a 25-basis-point cut, while a stronger tightening could drive a surge in the EURUSD rate.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Monday it was appropriate to discuss a September interest rate cut due to increasing employment market risks. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee supported this opinion in their statements, hinting at a potential move as early as next month. Today’s EURUSD forecast shows that such statements exert pressure on the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY is at a two-week low: the US dollar remains weak

The USDJPY pair continues to decline, with sentiment towards the US dollar decreasing. Find out more in our analysis dated 21 August 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair weakens further
• Investors are focused on the upcoming decisions of the US Federal Reserve
• USDJPY forecast for 21 August 2024: 147.77, 150.55, and 156.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate dipped to 145.72 on Wednesday, marking a two-week low. The Japanese yen appears relatively strong, but this is largely because the US dollar is currently unattractive. Investors believe the US Federal Reserve will soon be compelled to reduce borrowing costs to avoid an economic downturn.

Today, attention is on the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes. Subsequently, investors will watch the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which is due on Friday.

The possibility of the Bank of Japan hiking interest rates remains under review. At the end of the week, BoJ official Kazuo Ueda will clarify his actions in a speech to the Japanese parliament. The USDJPY forecast suggests that the yen will remain in a strong position.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD likely to rise further

The Australian dollar may benefit from the forecasted rise in unemployment and a decline in the US PMI. Find out more in our analysis dated 22 August 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Australia’s manufacturing PMI: previously at 47.5, currently at 48.7
• Australia’s services PMI: previously at 50.4, currently at 52.2
• US services PMI: previously at 55.0, projected at 54.0
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 227,000, projected at 232,000
• AUDUSD forecast for 22 August 2024: 0.6764, 0.6555, 0.6416, and 0.6200

Fundamental analysis

The Purchasing Managers’ Index reflects a country’s level of manufacturing activity over the previous period. A reading above 50.0 indicates economic growth, while a reading below 50.0 signals a contraction. Australia’s current manufacturing PMI is 1.2 points higher than the previous reading. Although theoretically this increase could be considered a positive sign for the Australian dollar, the index remains below the 50.0 level, which is a negative factor.

Australia’s services PMI also rose from the previous reading, coming in at 52.2 points. Overall, the fundamental analysis of Australia’s data for 22 August 2024 is positive for the AUDUSD rate.

The US services PMI is projected to decrease to 54.0 from the previous reading.

According to the forecast, US initial jobless claims are expected to increase to 232,000 from 227,000 over the past week.

Overall, today’s AUDUSD forecast may be considered favourable for the Australian dollar. However, it is essential to note that the US will release data today, which could affect the market situation.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team