Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD falls below 1.1500 after Fed decision

The EURUSD rate dropped to the 1.1450 area following the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and accompanying remarks from Jerome Powell. Find more details in our analysis for 19 June 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the Fed left the rate unchanged at 4.5%
• Current trend: correcting downwards
• EURUSD forecast for 19 June 2025: 1.1400 and 1.1500

Fundamental analysis

Following yesterday’s meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and reiterated its cautious stance. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalled that inflation could rise in the coming months, citing the negative effects of President Donald Trump’s new tariffs.

The US central bank also lowered its GDP growth forecasts and hinted at two possible rate cuts of 25 basis points each before the end of 2025. The first cut is expected in September.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY holds at monthly highs: too many risks in play

The USDJPY pair has climbed to a five-week peak as the US dollar benefits from safe-haven demand. Find more details in our analysis for 23 June 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair reached a five-week high amid strong market demand for safe-haven assets
• Domestic signals from Japan appear solid
• USDJPY forecast for 23 June 2025: 146.78

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 146.70. Strong demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset followed a sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict. The United States struck three Iranian nuclear facilities, joining Israel in the confrontation with Tehran.

Domestic Japanese data provided some positive signs, with the manufacturing sector returning to growth in June for the first time since May 2024. The services sector also expanded for the third consecutive month, indicating broad economic resilience.

Last week, the Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% per annum. The central bank commented that firms continued to pass rising wages onto prices, keeping core inflation high. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed a data-driven policy approach and left the door open for further rate hikes if inflationary pressure intensifies.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent loses all its gains: risk easing drives prices lower

Brent quotes fell to 68.95 USD per barrel, with the Middle East still steering market sentiment. Discover more in our analysis for 24 June 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent crude erased all gains following the Middle East ceasefire
• The market is correcting and monitoring external developments
• Brent forecast for 24 June 2025: 67.40

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices plunged to 68.95 USD on Tuesday morning, marking a two-week low.

The drop followed Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which eased concerns over potential oil supply disruptions from the Middle East. According to Trump, the ceasefire was to begin on Monday evening, with Iran halting strikes first, followed by Israel.

If both sides hold the truce, the conflict will officially end within 24 hours, concluding a 12-day confrontation.

The announcement came just hours after Iran fired missiles at a US base in Qatar in response to US strikes on its nuclear sites. US air defence systems intercepted the rockets, and there were no casualties. This development triggered a drop of over 7% in oil prices on Monday.

The easing of tensions also reduced fears that Iran might attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route through which around 20% of global oil supplies flow.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD surges above 1.1600 amid weakening dollar

The EURUSD rate is climbing rapidly, rising above 1.1600 amid a weakening US dollar and upbeat economic data from the eurozone. Find more details in our analysis for 25 June 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Germany's ifo Business Climate Index rose to 88.4 in June 2025
• Current trend: upward trend persists
• EURUSD forecast for 25 June 2025: 1.1577 and 1.1642

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continues to weaken following the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Continued oil supply from the Middle East has eased investor concerns over inflation and supports expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index climbed to 88.4 in June 2025, its highest level in nearly a year, up from 87.5 in May and slightly above forecasts of 88.2. The expectations component jumped to 90.7, the highest since April 2023.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent crude oil stabilises in range: market needs driver and pause

Brent oil prices are consolidating around 66.72 USD, with the phase of extreme volatility being over. Discover more in our analysis for 26 June 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent has reduced its price swings, settling into a narrow range
• The Middle East factor remains relevant, while focus also shifts to inventory data
• Brent forecast for 26 June 2025: 66.05

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices hold steady at 66.72 USD. While the Middle East remains a relevant theme, it no longer dominates market sentiment. Prices received support from Donald Trump’s statements about maintaining maximum pressure on Iran, including oil export restrictions.

At the same time, Trump hinted at a possible relaxation of oversight to help revive Iran’s economy and announced upcoming talks with Iranian representatives. He also expressed support for China, one of Iran’s largest oil buyers, to continue importing Iranian crude.

With the ceasefire between Iran and Israel still holding, markets are closely monitoring any further geopolitical developments.

US inventory data provided additional support to oil prices. Crude stocks fell for the fifth consecutive week, dropping by 5.84 million barrels to the lowest seasonal level in 11 years. Cushing inventories also hit their lowest point since February.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Bostic decides the fate of USDCAD: decline or reversal

Bostic’s speech could trigger a decline in USDCAD quotes towards 1.3610. Discover more in our analysis for 30 June 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The Canadian government cancelled the digital tax
• Speech by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Raphael W. Bostic
• USDCAD forecast for 30 June 2025: 1.3610

Fundamental analysis

Today’s forecast for USDCAD is optimistic for CAD. As part of the resumption of broad trade negotiations between the US and Canada, the Canadian government cancelled the digital tax, thus taking a step towards the US. Against this backdrop, the Canadian dollar continues to strengthen.

The USDCAD forecast also considers that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Bostic will give a speech, which may influence the USDCAD rate.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

July’s financial intrigue: will EURUSD growth continue

The euro continues to strengthen amid rising economic indicators in the European Union, and EURUSD quotes may test resistance around 1.1855 USD. Details – in our analysis for 1 July 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI): previous value – 1.9%, forecast – 2.0%
• US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS): previous value – 7.391 million, forecast – 7.450 million
• EURUSD forecast for 1 July 2025: 1.1855

Fundamental analysis

The fundamental analysis for 1 July 2025 suggests that the index may rise to 2.0%, up from the previous value of 1.9%. A significant discrepancy between the forecast and actual data could seriously impact the EURUSD exchange rate.

The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is an economic indicator reflecting the number of unfilled job positions in the country at the end of the month.

The report is published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and provides insight into labour demand, economic activity levels, and the balance between employers and job seekers.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD stable near highs: the market may update autumn 2021 peaks

The GBPUSD pair holds around 1.3763. The highest level since October 2021 remains supported by the Bank of England’s dovish stance. Details – in our analysis for 2 July 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The GBPUSD pair remains at its peak since October 2021
• The market expects the Bank of England to cut the interest rate in August to 4.00% per annum
• GBPUSD forecast for 2 July 2025: 1.3785

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate holds at a peak of 1.3763 on Wednesday. These are the highest levels since October 2021. The currency is supported by the Bank of England’s (BoE) restrained position against a more dovish policy from the ECB. Meanwhile, inflation in the UK remains consistently above target: in May it stood at 3.4% versus 2.0% in the Eurozone in June.

Nevertheless, the economy is under pressure. April saw a sharp GDP contraction amid global trade restrictions and domestic tax increases. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey noted that price growth is mainly driven by regulated tariffs, while weakening signs are emerging in the economy and labour market. He also indicated that rates are likely to move down. The regulator is expected to cut the base rate by 25 basis points in August – from 4.25% to 4.00%.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY slides down: investors cool on the US dollar

USDJPY moves lower to 143.79. The market awaits US data and monitors trade news. Details – in our analysis for 3 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• USDJPY pair continues to decline with no signs of stopping
• Market focus – US trade deals and rising pressure on Japan
• USDJPY forecast for 3 July 2025: 142.67

Fundamental analysis

USDJPY fell to 143.79 on Thursday. The yen gained support from a weaker dollar and continued optimism over trade negotiations.

Japanese authorities confirmed their desire for a mutually beneficial agreement with Washington but did not reveal details of possible concessions. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump increased pressure on Tokyo, calling the negotiations very difficult and threatening tariffs of up to 35% on Japanese imports. The dissatisfaction stemmed from Japan’s limited purchases of US rice and cars.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

XAUUSD strengthens after collapse amid strong US employment data

XAUUSD quotes are recovering due to rising safe-haven demand amid budgetary and trade risks. Current quote – 3,339 USD. Details – in our analysis for 4 July 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• In June, US companies created 147,000 new jobs
• US unemployment rate fell to 4.1% instead of the expected 4.3%
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 July 2025: 3,465

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD price is rising after yesterday’s sharp decline. Gold prices fell following strong US labour market data: in June, US companies created 147,000 new jobs – significantly above the forecast of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% instead of the projected 4.3%. These figures reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep the interest rate at its current level.

However, concerns over the growing US budget deficit and persistent uncertainty in trade policy have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. An additional factor was the passage of President Donald Trump’s bill in Congress, which provides for tax cuts and reductions in government spending.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team