Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

Brent keeps an eye on Iran’s nuclear program: everyone fears surprises

Brent is hovering at 65.53 USD per barrel on Tuesday. Market focus remains on developments involving Iran, dialogue with Russia, and China’s statistics. Discover more in our analysis for 20 May 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent prices edged higher and stabilised amid a heavy news flow
• China’s data and the Iran issue may influence commodity prices in the near term
• Brent forecast for 20 May 2025: 63.95 and 63.16

Fundamental analysis

Brent is trading around 65.53 USD per barrel on Tuesday. Prices are attempting to climb as the market reacts to uncertainty surrounding US-Iran nuclear negotiations. On Monday, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi warned that the talks would fail if Washington insists on a complete halt to uranium enrichment by Tehran.

Meanwhile, discussions about a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine are also unfolding. US President Donald Trump did not rule out ceasefire talks following his phone conversation with Russia’s leader. A potential truce could increase Russian oil exports if sanctions ease, which might cap further price gains.

Earlier, pressure on oil prices came from Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating, which raised concerns about the economic outlook for the world’s largest oil consumer. Sentiment also suffered from slowing industrial production and retail sales in China.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY crashes amid Japan’s export boom

The USDJPY pair continues to move within a strong bearish impulse, with the price currently at 143.57. Find more details in our analysis for 21 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s exports rose 2% year-on-year in April
• Japan’s trade balance for April showed a deficit of 115.85 billion yen
• Markets are watching for a possible meeting between the Japanese and US finance ministers
• USDJPY forecast for 21 May 2025: 141.45

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is falling for the seventh consecutive trading session, supported by strong Japanese trade data. In April, exports rose by 2% year-on-year to 9.157 trillion yen, marking the seventh straight month of export growth, although at the slowest pace in that period.

The yen also gained support from a narrowing trade deficit. In April 2025, Japan’s trade balance recorded a shortfall of 115.85 billion yen, significantly better than the 504.69 billion yen deficit a year earlier. However, the result still fell short of market expectations for a surplus.

Market participants are closely watching for a potential meeting between Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The talks are expected to address currency market developments, particularly the yen’s sharp appreciation.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) at two-week high: US budget prompts risk-off shift

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have climbed to 3,338 USD as investors are seeking safe-haven assets amid concerns over US fiscal policy. Discover more in our analysis for 22 May 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices have been rising for four consecutive trading sessions with no signs of slowing
• Demand for safe-haven assets grows amid mounting uncertainty in the US and the Middle East
• XAUUSD forecast for 22 May 2025: 3,346 and 3,358

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) has posted its fourth consecutive daily gain, reaching 3,338 USD per troy ounce. Investors are increasingly seeking reliable assets amid growing concerns about the US fiscal outlook.

Risk appetite declined following the release of a proposed US federal budget, which could further widen the already large deficit. Additional pressure came from Moody’s recent US credit rating downgrade, citing rising debt levels, alongside a cautious economic outlook from the Federal Reserve.

Geopolitical uncertainty also supports gold’s appeal, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East adding to market anxiety.

According to Chinese customs data, gold imports surged to an 11-month high in April, reaching 127.5 thousand tonnes (+73% m/m). The jump reflects strong demand and additional import quotas granted by the central bank amid rising trade tensions with the US.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD trapped in a Triangle: market holds breath before a breakout

The AUDUSD pair is rising after rebounding from support, with traders closely watching the 0.6495 resistance level. The price currently stands at 0.6433. Discover more in our analysis for 23 May 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Expectations of a Fed rate cut in the second half of 2025 support AUDUSD's current uptrend
• Traders anticipate a breakout from the consolidation range, which could trigger a strong directional move
• AUDUSD forecast for 23 May 2025: 0.6545

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate strengthens but remains confined within a sideways consolidation. The US dollar is under pressure due to ongoing fiscal risks and the lack of progress in trade negotiations. Additional support for the Australian currency came from expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the second half of 2025.

Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key rate by 25 basis points. Markets now price in over a 50% likelihood of a second rate cut at the next meeting in July.

Against this backdrop, AUDUSD trading remains mixed and volatile. The price is squeezed in a consolidation range with the upper boundary at 0.6495 and the lower one at 0.6360. Traders are closely monitoring this phase as such consolidations often end with a strong breakout.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD hits highest level since February 2022, pound easily outperforms US dollar

The GBPUSD pair surged to 1.3578, with strong UK retail sales data pushing the pound to a three-year high. Discover more in our analysis for 26 May 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• GBPUSD reached a three-year high, driven by strong data and geopolitical developments
• Markets expect only one more rate hike from the Bank of England before the end of the year
• GBPUSD forecast for 26 May 2025: 1.3593 and 1.3625

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD pair soared to 1.3578 on Monday, propelled by robust UK retail sales figures for April.

Warm spring weather encouraged consumer spending in April, with retail sales rising by 1.2% compared to March, well above the expected 0.2%.

Over the past week, the GBPUSD rate gained 1.5%, hitting its highest level since 24 February 2022 on Friday. Rising UK government bond yields have made the pound more attractive to foreign investors. However, concern remains over Britain's public finances, with the country currently holding the highest borrowing levels among developed economies. The yield on 30-year bonds surpassed 5.5% on Friday, despite an anticipated drop in energy bills.

An additional boost for the pound came from a UK-EU agreement easing some trade barriers and enhancing defence cooperation.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY rebounds from support – correction or start of a reversal?

The USDJPY rate is recovering, although the US dollar remains under pressure, with the price currently at 142.64. Discover more in our analysis for 27 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s inflation accelerated to 3.5%, the highest level in two years
• Rising inflation increases the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike
• USDJPY forecast for 27 May 2025: 144.95

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is correcting after rebounding from the key support level at 142.25. The US dollar remains under pressure as investors adjust their expectations for the Bank of Japan’s next moves, pricing in another rate hike amid steady inflation. According to last week’s data, Japan’s core inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 3.5%, its highest in two years, strengthening the case for further monetary policy tightening.

Meanwhile, Tokyo’s unemployment rate rose to 2.5% in March from 2.4% in February, while employment showed a slight decline. Japan’s Leading Economic Index, which signals short-term economic prospects, was revised up to 108.1 from 107.7 but remains at its lowest since December due to weak consumer sentiment. The Coincident Index, tracking current economic activity including industrial production, fell to 115.9, the lowest reading since November.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

FOMC reveals its hand – what is next for EURUSD after the minutes?

As markets await the release of the FOMC minutes, the EURUSD pair is forming a correction. Once this phase ends, the pair may resume its upward movement towards the 1.1415 mark. Find more details in our analysis for 28 May 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• FOMC meeting minutes release
• EURUSD forecast for 28 May 2025: 1.1415 and 1.1265

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 28 May 2025 focuses on the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the 6-7 May meeting. These documents are expected to provide deeper insight into the Fed’s stance on interest rates and economic risks.

At the latest meeting, the FOMC left the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, citing increased uncertainty and rising risks related to both inflation and unemployment. The minutes may shed light on the extent of the committee’s concern about a potential economic slowdown and inflationary pressures driven by trade tariffs and weaker GDP growth.

The Fed is assumed to maintain a wait-and-see approach and refrain from immediate action until more definitive economic signals emerge. Potential rate cuts may come no earlier than September and would depend on inflation and labour market dynamics.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) plummets as markets rush into risk

Gold (XAUUSD) prices dropped to 3,270 USD. The easing of tariff risks has dampened demand for safe-haven assets. Discover more in our analysis for 29 May 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) quotes are falling for the third consecutive day as risk appetite grows
• Strengthening of the US dollar adds to pressure on gold
• XAUUSD forecast for 29 May 2025: 3,244 USD

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) fell to 3,270 USD on Thursday, marking its third consecutive daily decline. The main trigger is the fading concern over tariffs, which has reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

The sell-off intensified following a ruling by the US Court of International Trade, which determined that President Donald Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing retaliatory tariffs on trade partners. The court ordered these measures to be cancelled and permanently blocked. The White House is expected to appeal, but for now, the decision deals a significant blow to the Trump administration’s economic policies.

The latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that the Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious stance as it assesses the impact of recent policy decisions, mainly those related to tariffs. The document also highlighted rising risks of inflation and unemployment.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY falls below 144.00 amid rising inflation in Japan

The USDJPY rate has dropped below the 144.00 mark as inflation in Japan accelerates and investors anticipate a rate hike from the central bank in July. Find more details in our analysis for 30 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Japan’s Consumer Price Index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in May
• Current trend: moving downwards
• USDJPY forecast for 30 May 2025: 143.00 and 144.75

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen is strengthening as inflation increases. Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in May, up from 3.4% in April and surpassing the 3.5% market forecast. This marks the highest inflation reading in two years and boosts expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at its July meeting.

Today, market participants are awaiting US inflation data, with the core PCE price index due during the American session. Forecasts anticipate a 0.1% monthly rise and a 2.5% year-on-year increase. Higher-than-expected inflation could support the US dollar, while a weaker reading would likely strengthen the yen further.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD starts the week steadily: all eyes on risk

The EURUSD pair is hovering around 1.1358 on Monday as investors assess risk levels at the start of a new week. Find out more in our analysis for 2 June 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD rate is edging up modestly as overall market sentiment remains weak
• Concerns about deteriorating global trade relations re-emerge
• EURUSD forecast for 2 June 2025: 1.1390 and 1.1424

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is trading close to 1.1358 at the start of the week and the new month. Market sentiment has deteriorated due to renewed concerns over global trade tensions.

On Friday, Donald Trump said he might introduce 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports starting from 4 June. Meanwhile, US-China relations have worsened again as Beijing rejected Washington’s claims of breaching the temporary trade agreement. This has cast doubt on the likelihood of further trade talks between the two nations.

Still, negotiations could resume as early as this week.

Market focus now shifts to fresh US economic data, particularly Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report for May.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team