Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD breaks three-year highs

The GBPUSD rate continues to climb confidently, setting a new three-year high at 1.3443. Market participants are awaiting key US data today, including ADP employment figures and Q1 GDP. Find more details in our analysis for 30 April 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: ADP employment data and Q1 GDP figures will be released during the American session today
• Current trend: uptrend in place
• GBPUSD forecast for 30 April 2025: 1.3443 and 1.3300

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD pair surged to a three-year high, driven by expectations that the Bank of England will proceed more cautiously with rate cuts compared to other major central banks. Markets are currently pricing in around 85 basis points of easing for 2025, similar to the Fed’s outlook.

Today’s spotlight is on key US economic indicators, with April’s ADP employment report and the Q1 GDP reading scheduled for release. The ADP reading is expected to grow by 118 thousand, with GDP up 0.2%. Stronger-than-expected results could support the US dollar and lead to a pullback in the GBPUSD pair, while weaker data would likely fuel further gains for the pound.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) in the green: demand for safe-haven assets on the rise

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have risen to 3,260 USD. With elevated risk levels, the precious metal finds strong support. Discover more in our analysis for 5 May 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) is on the rise, driven by demand for safe-haven assets
• The market closely follows US-China trade tensions, awaiting concrete developments
• XAUUSD forecast for 5 May 2025: 3,276

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices climbed to 3,260 USD on Monday. Amid high uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks, demand for safe-haven assets is increasing. This is an environment in which gold traditionally thrives.

The core issue lies in the lack of clarity. US President Donald Trump claims China is inclined to strike a deal, while Beijing insists specific conditions must be met before any discussions can proceed. The ongoing holidays in China add further ambiguity.

Gold also finds support in the weakening of the US dollar, making the metal more attractive to investors using other currencies.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is set to hold its policy meeting this week. Although a rate cut would benefit gold, such a move is unlikely at this stage.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Markets hold breath ahead of Fed decision: EURUSD poised for growth

The EURUSD pair is regaining ground, with bulls aiming to test the 1.1495 resistance level. Discover more in our analysis for 6 May 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The ISM services PMI in the US rose in April, exceeding analyst expectations
• The Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, concluding on Wednesday, will be one of the week’s key events
• Most market participants do not expect any change in the interest rate
• EURUSD forecast for 6 May 2025: 1.1615

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is showing moderate recovery as buyers keep the pair above the key support level at 1.1265. The US ISM services PMI rose to 51.6 in April from 50.8 in March, beating the forecast of a drop to 50.6. Although a reading above 50.0 signals expansion, the upbeat data only briefly supported the US dollar.

The main focus of the week is the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting, which concludes on Wednesday. Investors are looking for signals regarding potential monetary easing. Despite strong US labour market data, most market players expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged. This supports a moderately bullish outlook for the EURUSD pair.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Wedge pattern on USDJPY chart – sellers gear up for downward move

The USDJPY rate is currently undergoing a correction but remains under pressure, with the price now at 142.99. Find more details in our analysis for 7 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s services PMI for April was revised upwards from 52.2 to 52.4
• New orders in the service sector reached the highest level in nearly a year, indicating strong domestic demand in Tokyo
• USDJPY forecast for 7 May 2025: 141.45

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is recovering after declining for three consecutive trading sessions, as investors continue to monitor trade negotiations between the US and Japan. Tokyo authorities aim to finalise a bilateral agreement by June, supporting interest in risk assets and currency markets.

Last week, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.5% as expected. However, the central bank downgraded its forecasts for economic growth and inflation, reinforcing market expectations that further monetary tightening is unlikely in the near term.

Meanwhile, Japan’s services PMI for April 2025 was revised upwards to 52.4 from a preliminary 52.2, marking the fastest pace of new order growth in nearly a year and indicating steady domestic demand. These figures could push the USDJPY pair lower as part of today’s forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) at weekly low as market bets on good news

Gold (XAUUSD) has dropped to 3,275 USD as demand for safe-haven assets fades. The market is awaiting the announcement of a potential deal between China and the US. Find out more in our analysis for 12 May 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices decline amid expectations of progress in China-US trade talks
• The market anticipates official statements on the issue as early as Monday
• XAUUSD forecast for 12 May 2025: 3,258 and 3,223

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices fell to 3,275 USD on Monday, marking their lowest level in a week, a roughly 1% drop from Friday. The decline is driven by expectations, with the market awaiting an official announcement on progress in China-US trade negotiations early this week. Rumours suggest that productive developments are underway, and confirmation could arrive today.

Against this backdrop, investor appetite for safe-haven assets has diminished. Market participants are clearly pricing in a favourable outcome. Although little concrete information has been released, Chinese officials have indicated readiness for formal talks, and Washington has suggested that conditions for progress are in place. In any case, this will be known today.

Gold also came under pressure last week following comments from the US Federal Reserve. Speaking after the recent meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that there are no current plans for pre-emptive interest rate cuts.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD tumbles to the 1.1100 area; will the decline continue?

The EURUSD pair plunged to 1.1100 following the US-China agreement on reducing reciprocal tariffs. Today's spotlight is on the US inflation report. Find more details in our analysis for 13 May 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: today’s highlight is the US April inflation statistics, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release
• Current trend: a downtrend prevails
• EURUSD forecast for 13 May 2025: 1.1200 and 1.1000

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair continues to decline as the US dollar gains strength amid optimism over a de-escalation in the US-China trade dispute. The two countries agreed to a 90-day reduction in tariffs after talks in Geneva, signalling a meaningful thaw in trade tensions that had intensified last month.

Today, all eyes are on the US CPI data for April. The consensus forecasts suggest an increase of 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year. Any substantial deviation from these expectations could fuel heightened volatility in the EURUSD pair.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD climbs again: risk appetite drives sterling higher

The GBPUSD pair has risen confidently to 1.3294 as investors continue buying amid a favourable risk environment. Full details in today’s analysis for 14 May 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• GBPUSD resumes its upward movement and continues to appreciate
• UK inflation may exceed expectations, delaying potential Bank of England rate cuts
• GBPUSD forecast for 14 May 2025: 1.3319 and 1.3346

Fundamental analysis

GBPUSD strengthened to 1.3294 on Wednesday. Market sentiment improved following a temporary tariff-reduction agreement between the US and China, which encouraged demand for risk assets globally.

The pound is benefiting from this positive backdrop and from stabilising macroeconomic conditions. Inflation dynamics in the UK have improved, bolstered by stronger trade relations with the US and India.

However, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill noted that inflation in the UK could be higher than the Bank’s forecasts, potentially requiring elevated interest rates to be maintained longer than markets anticipate. Last week, Pill voted against a 25-basis-point rate cut.

Currently, markets are pricing in a 48-basis-point rate reduction by year-end. No changes are expected at the BoE’s June meeting.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY on the verge of reversal: Double Bottom may trigger a rally to 149.05

The USDJPY rate continues to decline as sellers gear up for another attempt to test the key support level. The price currently stands at 146.03. Discover more in our analysis for 15 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Weak US inflation data supported the Japanese yen
• The USDJPY pair remains under pressure amid ongoing global trade uncertainty
• USDJPY forecast for 15 May 2025: 149.05

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate has been declining for the third consecutive trading session. The US dollar is losing ground due to sustained uncertainty in global trade and speculation that the US administration favours a weaker dollar in the current negotiations. According to Washington, the relative weakness of Asian currencies gives regional exporters an unfair advantage over US companies.

Additional pressure came from weak US inflation data. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee stated that the Fed needs more information to assess how tariffs impact domestic prices. He noted that the central bank should not react to short-term stock market volatility or political commentary and cautioned against drawing quick conclusions about long-term trends amid high short-term fluctuations.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) at risk: the market does not need insurance

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 3,218 USD on Friday. The week ends with a loss of around 3%, with the outlook remaining highly uncertain. Find out more in our analysis for 16 May 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) quotes are closing the week down by about 3% due to declining interest in safe-haven assets
• The Federal Reserve may slow the pace of rate cuts, which is negative for gold
• XAUUSD forecast for 16 May 2025: 3,200 and 3,119

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are hovering around 3,218 USD per troy ounce at the end of the week. The precious metal is closing this period with a roughly 3% loss. Gold has temporarily lost its appeal as a safe-haven asset due to easing global trade tensions.

The US and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days – a temporary measure, yet one that helped ease fears about prolonged fallout from their trade conflict. Geopolitical risks also subsided, with the truce between India and Pakistan remaining stable.

Soft US inflation data typically supports gold. These figures have strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at least twice by the end of 2025.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell previously mentioned that inflation could become more volatile in the future due to persistent supply disruptions. This scenario may complicate efforts by global central banks to maintain price stability.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD reversed upwards – will the rally continue?

The EURUSD pair has formed a local upward reversal after bouncing off the daily support level at 1.1065, with further growth possible. Discover more in our analysis for 19 May 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: today, the market awaits eurozone inflation data for April, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release
• Current trend: upward movement is in progress
• EURUSD forecast for 19 May 2025: 1.1130 and 1.1265

Fundamental analysis

Investor attention is currently drawn to the UK-EU summit in London, where both sides aim to improve relations after years of tension following the 2016 Brexit vote. Constructive agreements may be reached.

As for the economic data, the market awaits April inflation statistics for the eurozone. The CPI is expected to rise by 0.6% month-on-month and by 2.2% year-on-year. Higher-than-expected inflation would push the pair higher, while weaker figures could trigger a downward reversal.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team