Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

US consumer confidence collapses, EURUSD is set for a leap

The EURUSD pair is correcting, with the price currently at 1.0877. Find more details in our analysis for 17 March 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since November 2022
• US retail sales data is in the spotlight today
• EURUSD forecast for 17 March 2025: 1.1035

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining slightly on Monday. However, the US dollar remains under pressure due to trade uncertainty and growing concerns about the US economy.

Friday’s data showed a decline in US consumer confidence and a sharp increase in inflation expectations. The consumer confidence index fell to 57.9 points in March from 64.7 in February, reaching its lowest level since November 2022.

Investors are now focused on the release of US retail sales data, which is due today and will provide information on consumer spending. The key event of the week will be the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday, where the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Market is in suspense: where will Brent head after the API report?

In anticipation of the API report, Brent prices are rising and could reach the 72.25 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 18 March 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent crude oil prices are on the rise
• Weekly US crude oil inventories from the American Petroleum Institute (API): previously at 4.247 million barrels
• Brent forecast for 18 March 2025: 70.00 and 72.25

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental Brent analysis for today, 18 March 2025, takes into account that oil prices continue their upward momentum.

Today, 18 March 2025, Brent prices are slightly rising amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and China’s stimulus measures. Brent futures were up 17 cents (0.2%), reaching 71.24 USD per barrel. The US Department of Energy revised its previous forecast, expecting Brent prices to average at 74.22 USD per barrel in 2025.

Despite the current price increase, long-term forecasts take into account a possible decline in Brent prices due to global economic factors.

According to the API, weekly US crude oil inventories rose significantly in the previous reporting period. The Brent analysis for today takes into account that following the data release, the quotes could maintain their upward trajectory and head towards 72.25 USD.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) sets a new record, with prices aiming for 3,050 USD

XAUUSD prices are rising significantly ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, currently standing at 3,043 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 19 March 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Concerns about an economic slowdown support bullish momentum in XAUUSD
• Traders are focused on the Fed decision, which may impact further Gold price movements
• The regulator’s soft stance may fuel demand for the precious metal
• XAUUSD forecast for 19 March 2025: 3,075

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices continue to rise on Wednesday, hitting new all-time highs. Buyers confidently surpassed the 3,037 USD resistance level due to mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Gold remains a key hedging instrument amid economic uncertainty caused by the US tariff policy, with the unstable trading environment only making it more attractive as a safe-haven asset. Investors’ concerns about an economic slowdown and higher recession risks support bullish momentum, which aligns with the XAUUSD forecast for today.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s decision, which will be announced today. If the regulator takes a soft stance, reacting to concerns about the tariff impact on economic growth, this will boost demand for Gold and open the way to the next key resistance level at 3,065 USD.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Can a reversal pattern send down Brent prices?

Brent prices are strengthening, currently standing at 70.99 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 20 March 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• US gasoline and distillate inventories fell to their lowest levels since early 2025
• The Head and Shoulders pattern on the Brent chart indicates a potential price decline
• Brent forecast for 20 March 2025: 66.65

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices continue to rise for the second consecutive trading session. However, buyers cannot surpass the key resistance level at 71.00 USD yet. Brent quotes are supported by US inventory data and escalating tensions in the Middle East, fuelling concerns about possible oil supply disruptions.

Wednesday’s data showed a sharp decline in distillate and gasoline stocks to their lowest levels since early 2025 despite an increase in crude oil inventories. Gasoline stocks decreased by 527 thousand barrels, with distillate inventories down by 2.80 million barrels. At the same time, commercial crude oil reserves in the US rose by 1.75 million barrels last week.

Investors currently continue to assess the prospects for US economic growth. The Federal Reserve reiterated its forecast for two benchmark interest rate cuts this year, which supports the oil market, according to the Brent price forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

The Fed holds off on rate cuts: is EURUSD set to collapse?

The EURUSD pair is falling for the third consecutive trading session, with the price currently at 1.0823. Find out more in our analysis for 21 March 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Easing concerns about an economic downturn put pressure on the EURUSD rate
• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and reiterated plans for two more cuts this year
• The EURUSD pair is testing the lower boundary of a Double Top reversal pattern
• EURUSD forecast for 21 March 2025: 1.0680

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining as the Federal Reserve has signalled that it is in no rush to lower interest rates. The US dollar receives additional support from easing concerns about an economic slowdown amid US President Donald Trump’s active trade policy. Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell called the imposed tariffs a temporary measure and emphasised that the regulator does not rush to ease monetary policy further.

On Wednesday, the Fed held rates steady and reiterated its forecast for two quarter-percentage-point cuts this year, which is in line with the median forecast. Traders are seeing signs of a potential EURUSD reversal, according to today’s forecast. The quotes are currently testing a key support level, a breakout below which may push the currency pair lower.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY surges as slump in Japan’s business activity crushes the yen

The USDJPY rate is strengthening, with buyers aiming to test the 150.15 resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 24 March 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The au Jibun Bank Japan Composite PMI fell to 48.5 in March
• The Bank of Japan’s governor says the regulator will continue to raise interest rates
• Moving averages confirm the bullish trend in USDJPY
• USDJPY forecast for 24 March 2025: 151.15

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is rising for the second consecutive session as the Japanese yen remains under pressure from weakening business activity. According to preliminary data, the au Jibun Bank Japan Composite PMI fell to 48.5 in March from 52.0 in February, marking the first contraction in the private sector since October and the sharpest decline since February 2022. Manufacturing has been in decline for the ninth consecutive month, and the services sector has now also entered contraction territory.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasised that the regulator will continue to raise interest rates if core inflation nears 2%. Markets still expect the BoJ to tighten its monetary policy this year amid persistent inflationary pressure and rising wages. According to today’s USDJPY forecast, these factors may limit further weakening of the yen.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) resumes growth: market fears US tariffs

Gold (XAUUSD) is hovering around 3,020 USD on Wednesday, with investors interested in safe-haven assets. Discover more in our analysis for 26 March 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) continues to rise after a brief pause
• Markets still seek risk protection amid Trump’s tariff wars
• XAUUSD forecast for 26 March 2025: 3,036 and 3,057

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices strengthened to 3,020 USD.

The market is heading for record levels again as Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset increases, fuelled by uncertainty over the upcoming US retaliatory tariffs.

While President Donald Trump’s tariff plans may be limited and targeted, investors are still pricing in considerable risk. The new round of tariffs set to begin on 2 April will signal an escalation in trade tensions between the US and its key partners.

At the same time, geopolitical developments also remain in focus, with the US playing a diplomatic role. This involves potential easing of sanctions against Russia. In the long run, this could reduce investor appetite for Gold.

The Gold (XAUUSD) forecast is positive.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD rebounds amid Trump’s trade threats

The EURUSD rate is rising, with buyers testing the 1.0785 resistance level. Discover more in our analysis for 27 March 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Investors fear that trade restrictions will slow US economic growth
• US durable goods orders rose by 0.9% in February
• The Stochastic Oscillator indicates the bearish correction may be ending
• EURUSD forecast for 27 March 2025: 1.0945

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is recovering after six consecutive trading sessions of decline. The European currency received support following US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on imported cars and light trucks. Investor concerns that these trade restrictions could hamper US economic growth and accelerate inflation may support the current EURUSD gains, according to the EURUSD forecast for today.

Meanwhile, US durable goods orders data rose unexpectedly by 0.9% in February to 289.3 billion USD, exceeding forecasts. Market focus now shifts to Friday’s PCE price index report, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, and the mutual tariffs expected to be announced next week.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Bearish scenario for USDJPY: the market poised for a Wedge pattern breakout

The USDJPY rate is edging lower, but buyers are not retreating from the 151.75 resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 28 March 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Tokyo inflation accelerated to 2.4%, exceeding the BoJ’s target for the fifth consecutive month
• Kazuo Ueda confirmed the possibility of further interest rate hikes
• The formation of a Wedge reversal pattern could trigger yen strengthening
• USDJPY forecast for 28 March 2025: 149.05

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate has slightly declined following the release of the Bank of Japan’s March meeting minutes. The regulator reiterated its commitment to a flexible approach to monetary policy, reinforcing expectations for further rate hikes. This supports the yen and, according to the USDJPY forecast, may prevent a breakout above the key 151.75 resistance level.

At the same time, Tokyo’s inflation rose to 2.4%, adding to pressure on the BoJ. This marks the fifth consecutive month that core inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target, strengthening expectations for continued monetary policy normalisation.

Nevertheless, earlier this week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled that further rate hikes remain on the table if economic conditions align with the central bank’s outlook.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) soared above 3,100 USD, setting a new all-time high

XAUUSD prices are showing rapid growth, breaking above the 3,100 USD level. This week, the market will focus on US employment data. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 31 March 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: another wave of the tariff war is expected this week, with Trump planning to impose a 25% tariff on imported cars
• Current trend: a strong uptrend is underway
• XAUUSD forecast for 31 March 2025: 3,150 and 3,100

Fundamental analysis

Gold continues its rapid growth in the uptrend, now trading above the 3,100 USD mark. The precious metal remains in high demand from investors and central banks amid ongoing tariff wars by US President Donald Trump, who plans to introduce a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and announce a broader reciprocal tariff plan.

This week, market focus will shift to US employment statistics, with the ADP report, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the unemployment rate scheduled for release. Stronger-than-expected figures could support the US dollar and trigger a correction in the XAUUSD pair. Conversely, weaker data would allow Gold to continue its upward move.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team