Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: the pair rises amid talks on Ukraine

The EURUSD rate rose to the price area near 1.0500, driven by the beginning of negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine. Find out more in our analysis for 14 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the market is awaiting the eurozone’s GDP data for Q4 2024 today
• Current trend: upward momentum
• EURUSD forecast for 14 February 2025: 1.0400 and 1.0530

Fundamental analysis

The euro rate rose above a two-week high of 1.0400 after US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum to renegotiate reciprocal tariffs with the eurozone without immediately imposing new tariffs, easing concerns about a sharp deterioration of trade relations with the US.

Optimism about the euro currency also rose on hopes of an end to the military conflict in Ukraine, as Donald Trump promised to make every effort to start a peaceful settlement and held talks with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine.

Today, market participants will focus on the eurozone’s GDP statistics for Q4 2024. The indicator is expected to remain unchanged quarter-on-quarter and rise by 0.9% year-on-year. Stronger-than-expected data will support the euro, with the EURUSD pair likely to continue its ascent. Conversely, weaker figures could send the pair into a correction.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to strengthen after a correction

Gold continues to rally towards 2,950 ahead of FOMC members’ speeches. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 17 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• A speech by FOMC representative Patrick T. Harker
• A speech by FOMC representative Michelle Bowman
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 17 February 2025: 2,877 and 2,950

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD analysis shows that Gold prices have corrected towards 2,876 USD, with the pair likely to form another growth wave in the future.

On of the main news for XAUUSD (Gold) is that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President and FOMC representative Patrick T. Harker is expected to deliver a speech today, 17 February 2025. Earlier, Harker spoke about possible rate cuts in 2025 but emphasised that there was no need for this at present and that further decisions would depend on incoming economic data.

FOMC member Michelle Bowman’s report is scheduled after Harker’s speech. Earlier, in September 2024, she advocated for a 0.25 percentage point rate cut, which reflects her cautious approach to monetary policy changes.

Given the current economic situation, it is worth paying attention to inflation, the labour market, and the Federal Reserve’s possible future actions. Bowman’s speech may provide additional signals about the direction of US monetary policy and adjust the market sentiment.

Based on Bowman’s previous statements and the current economic conditions, she is expected to underscore the need for a balanced approach to interest rate changes, taking into account both the risks of overheating the economy and the need to maintain its sustainable growth.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Japan’s GDP growth adds to pressure on USDJPY

The USDJPY rate is strengthening after rebounding from the 151.20 support level. Discover more in our analysis for 18 February 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s economy grew by 0.7% in Q4 2024
• BoJ interest rate hike in March remains in question
• USDJPY forecast for 18 February 2025: 151.60 and 150.20

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is on the rise after falling for three consecutive trading sessions as traders focus on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes. The regulator is adopting a wait-and-see approach, while the market is more focused on the prospects of an interest rate cut.

Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair remains under pressure after unexpectedly strong GDP growth data from Japan. Monday’s quarterly statistics showed that the country’s economy grew by 0.7% in Q4 2024, up from 0.4% in the previous quarter and above the forecast of 0.3%. GDP rose 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and exceeding 1.7% in Q3.

The data reinforces hawkish sentiment towards the BoJ monetary policy. While there is still uncertainty over a potential rate hike in March, further tightening of monetary conditions during the year is considered quite likely, which may help the yen strengthen as part of today’s USDJPY forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Geopolitical uncertainty supports demand for Gold (XAUUSD)

XAUUSD prices are poised to break above the key resistance level at 2,940 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 19 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Markets are awaiting the release of the US Federal Reserve minutes, which may affect Gold prices
• Donald Trump’s trade policy supports demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset
• XAUUSD forecast for 19 February 2025: 2,065 and 3,030

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are undergoing a minor correction after a two-day rise. Gold remains under pressure after reaching record highs and in anticipation of new negotiations between the US and Russia to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Investors continue to monitor the geopolitical situation as uncertainty around the outcome of the talks restrains price movements.

Markets also focus on the upcoming release of the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes. If the regulator’s rhetoric remains tough, Gold may plunge due to higher yields on dollar assets. At the same time, Donald Trump’s trade policy continues to drive demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent is trading below 72.00 USD following the OPEC+ meeting

Brent quotes are declining, with sellers testing the 75.50 USD support level. Discover more in our analysis for 20 February 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• According to the American Petroleum Institute, US crude oil inventories rose by 3.34 million barrels
• There are downside risks for Brent as part of the implementation of the reversal pattern
• Brent forecast for 20 February 2025: 74.35 and 73.15

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are plunging after rising for three days. The pressure primarily comes from the American Petroleum Institute data, which recorded an increase in US crude oil reserves. According to the API estimates, the country’s oil stocks grew by 3.34 million barrels in the week ended on 14 February.

Brent quotes rose earlier, driven by reports that the G-7 countries were discussing the possibility of strengthening the mechanism to limit Russia’s oil prices. Additionally, traders are closely following the negotiations between the US and Russia on the situation in Ukraine, analysing the incoming information in search of prerequisites for easing sanctions that affect the energy sector.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY forecast: the pair declines amid rising inflation in Japan

The USDJPY rate plunged below 150.00 amid the release of Japan’s stronger-than-expected inflation statistics for January. Discover more in our analysis for 21 February 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Japan’s national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.0% in January
• Current trend: the downtrend
• USDJPY forecast for 21 February 2025: 150.00 and 148.60

Fundamental analysis

According to today’s statistics, Japan’s annual national inflation rate rose by 4.0% in January 2025 from 3.6% in the previous month, marking the highest level since early 2023. The core annual CPI increased by 3.2% from 3.0% in December.

The USDJPY quotes fell to the price area around 149.00 during the Asian session, hitting a two-month low. The Japanese currency is strengthening amid rising GDP and inflation in the country, with investors expecting the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy further.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD is in positive territory again: another rise is likely

The EURUSD pair continues to rise and has already reached 1.0509. The market is interested in risk again. Discover more in our analysis for 24 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair rose amid improved expectations for the eurozone
• The market is interested in risk but is still cautious
• EURUSD forecast for 24 February 2025: 1.0529

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate strengthened, reaching 1.0509.

The euro fully recouped Friday’s losses after the conservative Christian democrats won the German elections. The preliminary elections were largely in line with investor expectations.

The market is now focused on the timing of forming a coalition. Conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz intends to create one within the next two months. Strong and cohesive management is considered essential to push through much-needed fiscal reforms, especially amid economic stagnation in Germany and trade tensions over US tariff policy.

Reform of the debt system, which has restrained investments for years, is expected to support both the eurozone’s stocks and the EUR rate.

The latest data showed that private sector activity in the eurozone remained stable in February. The PMI decreased to 50.2 points, below the expected 50.5.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) corrects after record peaks, but demand for the precious metal remains strong

XAUUSD prices are declining after rebounding from the 2,950 USD resistance level. Find more details in our analysis for 25 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Global economic risks remain high, fuelling the upward momentum in Gold
• All eyes are on the release of the US PCE price index
• Investors expect the Federal Reserve to postpone an interest rate cut
• XAUUSD forecast for 25 February 2025: 2,970 and 3,000

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are edging down today after reaching a record high on Monday. Demand for the precious metal remains as investors seek safe-haven assets amid market uncertainty. Gold was additionally supported by substantial inflows into the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund. Experts note that as long as global economic risks remain high, XAUUSD will maintain its upward momentum.

A crucial factor for the market will be the release of the US PCE price index on Friday, which is a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to postpone rate cuts until the next quarter despite forecasts of a potential policy easing as early as March.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD forecast: the pair climbed to 1.0500

The EURUSD rate reached 1.0500 amid positive sentiment after the German parliamentary elections. Find out more in our analysis for 26 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Germany’s GDP declined by 0.2% in Q4 2024, as expected
• Current trend: consolidating in a sideways range
• EURUSD forecast for 26 February 2025: 1.0400 and 1.0530

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is rising moderately after the conservative Christian Democrats won the German elections. Investors perceived the election outcome positively and are now interested in the details of how the new government plans to stimulate the growth and development of Europe’s largest economy.

Tomorrow, market participants are awaiting US GDP data for Q4 2024 and the report from the latest ECB monetary policy meeting. Investors hope to see hints about the regulator’s further plans: whether the ECB will continue to cut rates or it is poised to pause the monetary policy easing cycle.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent may end the month with the biggest losses since September 2024

Brent prices fell to 72.75 USD per barrel. The market is concerned about future supply growth. Discover more in our analysis for 27 February 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent prices continue to fall
• The commodity market is preparing to record the biggest decline in five months in February
• Brent forecast for 27 February 2025: 71.90

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices fell to 72.75 USD on Thursday, reaching the lowest level since December 2024. Oil seems to be preparing to close February with the strongest decline in five months.

Investors are still concerned about the prospects for growth in oil supply and pessimistic demand forecasts. The possibility of easing sanctions against Russia may increase global oil supply, putting pressure on prices.

An additional negative factor is the US tariff policy. Market participants believe that the White House tariffs on China may slow down economic growth and weaken demand.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team