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Live Forex Chart

Currency
Rates
EUR / USD
1.12275
USD / JPY
107.572
GBP / USD
1.24587
USD / CHF
0.9459
USD / CAD
1.35924
EUR / JPY
120.777
AUD / USD
0.69150

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MikhailLF

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Brent Crude Oil: oil rises again

Current trend

Brent crude oil prices are recovering after a significant drop in the middle of the week on the backdrop of negative news about the increase in stocks in storage.

Stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency of the US Department of Energy (EIA) were unexpected. According to API data, weekly oil reserves in storage were 1.749M barrels, which is significantly higher than the forecast of 0.300M barrels. According to the EIA, oil reserves held by US firms showed an increase of up to 1.442M barrels, with analysts projecting 0.219M barrels. Excessive oil reserves in Cushing’s storage also remained in the negative zone, showing –0.991M barrels after a decrease of –2.608M barrels last week.

Also, quotes could be affected by the EIA report, according to which US oil production grew by 0.5M barrels and reached 11.0M barrels per day.

Support and resistance

The price of the asset continues to form a global upward correction and this week it consolidated above the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%. Today, continued growth and new attempts to achieve higher levels are possible. Technical indicators continue to hold the global buy signal: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations is still expanding, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is held in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 45.75, 51.80.
Support levels: 39.25, 31.66.
 
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MikhailLF

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Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after the "bearish" close of trading last week. The emergence of downtrend in the instrument was facilitated by the growth of correctional sentiment, while fundamentally the situation on the market changes little. EUR is recovering against expectations of the growth of the European economy; however, the outbreaks of disease that are recorded in various countries of the world again suggest the second wave of the epidemic, which can significantly affect the recovery of the global economy. Today, European investors are focused on the publication of statistics on business sentiment in the eurozone in June. Traders also expect the release of data on consumer inflation in Germany in June. Consumer inflation in Germany is projected to rise by 0,3 MoM after falling 0.1% MoM last month.

GBP/USD

GBP shows a slight increase against USD during today's morning session, retreating from local lows since May 29, updated at the end of last trading week. Macroeconomic data from the USA published last Friday turned out to be contradictory; however, on the whole, they contributed to a moderate growth of USD. Personal Spending of US citizens in May increased by 8.2% MoM after a decrease of 12.6% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth by 9% MoM. Personal Income, on the other hand, decreased by 4.2% MoM after rising by 10.8% MoM in April. Analysts had expected decline by 6% MoM. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 78.9 to 78.1 points in June, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 79 points. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of May statistics on consumer credit in the UK. In addition, a speech by the member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vlieghe, is expected during the day.

NZD/USD

NZD shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, located near 0.6400. Investors hesitate to open new long positions on the instrument, responding to alarming statistics that indicate an increase in the incidence of coronavirus in the world. A number of US states suspend the program of gradual lifting of restrictions, which inevitably leads to a revision of previous forecasts regarding the restoration of the global economy. At the same time, consumer interest in NZD is supported by the publication of good macroeconomic statistics. Today, traders expect publication of information on the dynamics of the construction market in the US in May. Also the release of Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index in June is expected today. Closer to the end of the American trading session, a speech will be made by the FOMC member, John Williams.

USD/JPY

USD is showing flat trading against JPY during today's Asian session. The instrument unsuccessfully tries to consolidate above 107.00, receiving support from the growth in demand for safe assets. Monday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan turned out to be ambiguous. Retail sales in Japan increased by 2.1% MoM in May after falling by 9.9% MoM a month earlier. At the same time, the annual indicator decreased by 12.3% YoY after a decrease of 13.9% YoY in April. Analysts had expected decline by 11.6% YoY. Large Retailers' Sales fell by 16.7% MoM, slightly correcting from the April rate of decline at 22.1% MoM.

XAU/USD

Gold prices show ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, trading near record highs since October 2012. The surge in the incidence of coronavirus is providing significant support to the asset, as investors are again actively talking about the second wave of the epidemic and the return of previous restrictions. In particular, alarming statistics come from the United States, where some states were forced to suspend the phased quarantine cancellation program. Additional support for gold is also provided by the soft monetary policy of the world's leading financial regulators.
 

MikhailLF

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Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is trading in both directions against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating after a moderate increase the day before. Yesterday, the pair managed to demonstrate active growth, but could not consolidate at new highs. The reason for the increase in purchasing activity for the instrument was the publication of good macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation from Germany. Consumer Price Index in June accelerated from the previous –0.1% MoM to 0.6% MoM, which turned out to be better than expectations. In annual terms, prices added 0.9% YoY with an expected increase of 0.6% YoY. Harmonized Consumer Price Index for the same period accelerated from 0.5% YoY to 0.8% YoY, which also turned out to be better than the forecast of 0.6% YoY. Today, investors expect the release of statistics on consumer inflation for June in the eurozone. Also, traders will be focused on the speech of the ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos.

GBP/USD

The British pound shows ambiguous trading during today's Asian session, trying to consolidate below 1.2300. Yesterday, GBP fell against USD again, updating local lows since May 28, while by the end of the trading session on Monday, the "bulls" managed to partially recoup. At the beginning of the week, GBP was under pressure from macroeconomic indicators released in the UK. Consumer Credit in May decreased by 4.597B pounds after a decrease of 7.425B pounds over the past period. Analysts had expected a decline of 2.5B. The number of Mortgage Approvals in May grew by only 9.273K, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecasts of 25K. Finally, investors were worried by statements by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who noted that he was ready for a dialogue with the EU on the Brexit issue, but was still considering an alternative scenario for the country to leave without an agreement at all.

AUD/USD

AUD strengthens slightly against USD during today's Asian session, continuing to develop a weak "bullish" momentum formed yesterday. Buying activity in AUD remains restrained, as investors assess the prospects of a new wave of the coronavirus epidemic amid an increase in the number of cases in several countries, in particular in the US. Data from China provide some support to the instrument this morning, while Australian Private Sector Lending showed negative results. The Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI in June showed an increase from 53.6 to 54.4 points. NBS Manufacturing PMI for the same period strengthened from 50.6 to 50.9 points, which also turned out to be better than market expectations of 50.4 points. In the US today, several important statements by officials are expected at once, including a speech by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the US Congress.

USD/JPY

USD is showing moderate growth against JPY during today's morning trading, located near local highs since June 9, updated the day before. Support for USD is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Japan published on Monday. Japan's Unemployment Rate in May rose from 2.6% to 2.9%, exceeding growth forecasts to 2.8%. Over the same period, Industrial Production fell by 8.4% MoM and 25.9% YoY, while analysts expected a decline of 5.6% MoM and 11.3% YoY. An additional impetus for USD growth was a slight improvement in the dynamics of the number of new cases of coronavirus in the United States over the weekend. The country is experiencing a repeated increase in the incidence of COVID-19, with the result that some states are forced to return some of the restrictive measures.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are consolidating near eight-year highs, supported by rising concerns about the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. The growth of cases is recorded in the USA, Brazil and India, which forces investors to reconsider their forecasts regarding the pace of global economic recovery. Only news about the appearance of medicine that can ease the course of the disease, as well as active work on the invention of the vaccine softens the situation. In addition, judging by reports from China, Beijing has managed to take a second outbreak of the disease under control and stop the further spread of the epidemic.
 

MikhailLF

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Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is showing a slight decrease against USD during today’s Asian session, consolidating after an active but multidirectional dynamics the day before. Yesterday, quite a lot of interesting macroeconomic statistics was released in Europe and the USA; however, it did not contribute to the formation of any intelligible vector of movement in the market. Coronavirus again became the main topic of discussion, which was once again emphasized during a joint speech by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell tried to soften the overall negative picture, noting that the US economy was able to recover to current levels faster than the initial estimates, but further prospects so far are slim. Today, investors are focused on the June report on the labor market in Germany, as well as data on Non-Farm Payrolls in the US from ADP.

GBP/USD

GBP slightly declines against USD in morning trading today, retreating from local highs since June 26, updated the day before. The reason for the active growth of the instrument on Tuesday was the positive comments of Michel Barnier, EU chief negotiator on Brexit. Barnier emphasized that based on current agreements between the parties the potential conclusion of a trade deal is possible. Meanwhile, the growth of GBP was overshadowed by new alarming information about the increase in the number of patients with coronavirus in the UK. Earlier this week, the government announced the return of quarantine restrictions in Leicester, where a new outbreak was recorded.

AUD/USD

AUD is trading in both directions against USD during today’s Asian session, trying to consolidate below 0.6900. Some pressure on AUD is exerted by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Building Permits issued in May fell sharply by 16.4% MoM after a decrease of 1.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected deterioration in the dynamics of the indicator, but expected a decrease of 10% MoM. In annual terms, the number of permits fell by 11.6% YoY after an increase of 5.7% YoY a month earlier. In turn, data from China support the buying activity in the instrument. Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June rose from 50.7 to 51.2 points against the forecast of a decrease to 50.5 points.

USD/JPY

USD is falling against JPY during today’s trading session, testing the level of 107.60 for a breakdown. The instrument managed to update local highs since June 9 at the opening of the session, but the uncertain market situation did not allow the “bulls” to consolidate at new levels. JPY is supported today by good macroeconomic indicators from Japan. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI rose from 37.8 to 40.1 points in June, although analysts did not expect changes in the indicator. Consumer Confidence Index for the same period rose from 24 to 28.4 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations for a decrease to 20.9 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are trading in both directions near their multi-year highs, which were once again updated the day before. Investors are once again resorting to safe assets amid alarming news of a new outbreak of coronavirus, which may erase previous estimates of the timing of global economic recovery. First of all, the growing incidence in the United States is alarming, as the US economy has just begun to recover from the first wave of quarantine restrictions. Rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China also contribute to lower demand for risk. Earlier, Beijing passed a controversial national security bill, which implies the strengthening of state control in Hong Kong. In response to this decision, the USA withdrew the special status of Hong Kong, which implied certain preferences in the field of trade.
 

MikhailLF

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Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR shows moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing an uncertain "bullish" momentum formed yesterday. European investors reacted optimistically to German labor market statistics. In June, the number of unemployed in the country fell sharply from 238K to 69K, with a forecast of a decrease to only 120K. However, the Unemployment Rate rose from 6.3% to 6.4%, but turned out to be better than its forecasts of 6.6%. Germany also showed steady growth in retail sales. In May, sales grew by 13.9% MoM and 3.8% YoY, which is much better than average forecasts of +3.9% MoM and –3.5% YoY. In turn, investors are notably cautious amid continued growth in the incidence rate in the United States. California and Texas reported a record number of cases of coronavirus, which threatens the return of large-scale quarantine measures in the country. In addition, on July 4, the United States celebrates Independence Day, which could lead to another outbreak if the celebrations are not canceled.

GBP/USD

GBP is showing weak growth against USD during today's morning session, trying to consolidate above 1.2500. Yesterday, GBP managed to strengthen, continuing the uptrend of Tuesday, and almost completely ignored the weak statistics from the UK. According to the results of Q1 2020, UK GDP showed a decrease of 2.2% QoQ and 1.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of –2% QoQ and –1.6% YoY. Current Account in the UK for the same period showed a deficit of 21.1B pounds with a forecast of –15B pounds. Notable support for GBP is provided by quite tangible progress during negotiations between the UK and the EU. For the first time in a long period, a timid hope appeared that the parties would still come to a consensus and a trade deal would be concluded before the Brexit deadline at the end of the year.

NZD/USD

NZD continues moderate growth against USD, approaching another resistance near 0.6500. Support for the instrument is provided by not the strongest USD. Morbidity statistics worry investors, but they do not hurry into safe assets, believing that Europe, for example, has managed to cope with the coronavirus epidemic much better. China also creates a good background, where a new outbreak of disease was quickly taken under control. Macroeconomic statistics from the USA published on Wednesday turned out to be moderately positive. ADP Employment Change report indicated an increase by 2369K, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 3000K. ISM Manufacturing PMI in June rose sharply from 43.1 to 52.6 points with the forecast of 49.5 points. Markit Manufacturing PMI grew from 49.6 to 49.8 points with a neutral forecast.

USD/JPY

USD shows flat dynamics against JPY during today's Asian session, developing correctional momentum formed when the instrument retreated from its local highs since June 9. Against the backdrop of alarming statistics about the increase in the number of new cases of coronavirus in the United States, investors prefer JPY to USD. In addition, it should be noted that there is still a demand for risk in the market now, partly due to good European statistics and hopes for a further recovery of the global economy. Today investors are focused on the publication of the June report on the US labor market. Traders are hoping for a noticeable improvement in key indicators, which will give an upward momentum to USD.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are consolidating this morning, having experienced a marked decline yesterday, when quotes retreated from their multi-year highs. The pressure on the instrument was provided by technical factors, as well as the redistribution of long positions in the market. Published on Wednesday, macroeconomic statistics on employment and business activity in the US manufacturing sector also contributed to the downtrend in gold, but the main indicators of the US economy will be released today.
 
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