# Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

### Live Forex Chart

Currency
Rates
EUR / USD
1.07893
USD / JPY
112.051
GBP / USD
1.288
USD / CHF
0.98372
1.32573
EUR / JPY
120.896
AUD / USD
0.66141

#### HFblogNews

##### Active Member
Date : 24th January 2020.

PMIs in focus – EUR, GBP & USD 24th January 2020.

PMI data from Europe, UK and USA will be the main drivers for the FX market today.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Stuart Cowell
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#### HFblogNews

##### Active Member
Date : 27th January 2020

Events to Look Out For Next Week 27th January 2020.

*Brexit Day has officially arrived, however BoE and FOMC take the centre stage next week. Meanwhile, the world’s attention has turned to the coronavirus and how well it will be contained. Note that markets in China, South Korea, and Taiwan were closed for Lunar New Year holidays, with the former two now closed through to the end of next week.

Monday – 27 January 2020

*
German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. January’s numbers are expected to decline.

Tuesday – 28 January 2020

*
Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable Goods is the leading indicator of production in the US. December’s Durable goods orders are expected to rise 2.0% with a 6.0% bounce in transportation orders, after a -2.1% headline orders decrease in November that was hit with a -5.9% transportation orders decline. Boeing orders for planes plunged to 3 after bouncing to 63 in November thanks to a boost from the Dubai Air Show.
Chicago Board Consumer Confidence Index (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Chicago Board Index is expected to have increased from 126.5 in December to 127.2 in January.

Wednesday – 29 January 2020

*
Consumer Price Index (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Inflation is expected to have unchanged close to 1.7% y/y, after flattered to 0.5% in Q4.
Interest Rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 19:00) – No change is expected at the Fed meeting, with the Fed having backed out of its tightening phase after cutting rates three times last year. However, guidance regarding future rate movements is expected.

Thursday- 30 January 2020

*
Interest Rate Decision and conference (GBP, GMT 12:00) – The BoE is expected to remain on hold, especially after the UK Jan flash composite PMI smashed expectations today. Positioning in OIS markets now implies a 47% probability for the BoE trimming the repo rate by 25 bp at the January-30th MPC meeting next week, so markets are still anticipating easier monetary policy, albeit to a lesser extent than recently. Policymakers will still be looking to see the full impact that the lifting of Brexit and political fog has since the election in mid December, especially with the global economy looking to be holding up.

* Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – A Q4 GDP growth of 2.4% is expected with a huge $67 bln surge in net exports due to a big import plunge, but a similarly huge but nearly offsetting -$53 bln Q4 inventory subtraction that leaves an accumulation rate of just $17 bln. * Tokyo Core CPI (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In January, the CPI ex Food is expected to have stood at 0.6% y/y, lower than December, even though projections may be revised when Retail Sales are taken into consideration. * Retail Sales (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Following a precipitous 2-month dive in October and November, due to a prolonged hit to exports from soft global demand and a slide in consumer spending following a nationwide tax hike, December’s Retail Sales are expected to climb slightly to 0.7% on a y/y basis. Friday – 31 January 2020 * Brexit Deadline Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. #### HFblogNews ##### Active Member Date : 28th January 2020. New Homes Sales add to the woes 28th January 2020. USA30, H1 US new home sales dipped -0.4% in December to a 694k pace, after November’s revised -1.1% drop to 697k (was 719k). October was bumped down to 705k, versus 710k. This is the lowest since July. Sales were at a 564k rate last December. Regionally, sales declined in the Northeast and South, and rose in the Midwest and West. The month’s supply of homes rose to 5.7 from 5.5 (revised from 5.4). The median sales prices increased 3.3% to$331,400 after November’s -0.8% slide to $320,900 (revised from$330,800). That’s a +0.5% y/y clip versus 4.0% y/y in November (revised from 7.2% y/y). The drop in sales and downward revisions are a disappointment. Housing was a significant plus point for the US economy in 2019.

US equities are sharply lower, following on the heels of the plunge in stocks globally on heightened worries over the spreading coronavrius and concern about slowing global economic growth. The USA100 trades 1.76% lower at 9150, the USA500 is 1.41% lower at 3249 with the USA30 is down over 400 points (1.4%) at 28,586, from the breach of the 200-period moving average on Fridays close.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Stuart Cowell
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#### HFblogNews

##### Active Member
Date : 30th January 2020.

EURUSD & FOMC Preview

EURUSD, H1

EURUSD edged out a fresh two-month low at 1.0994, racking up today as the sixth consecutive trading day where a lower low has been seen. The new low is the culmination of a moderate downtrend that’s been unfolding over the last couple of weeks, from levels above 1.1150. The Dollar has been outperforming the common currency in the context of rising risk aversion in global markets, while ECB policymakers have been signalling that accommodative monetary policy will remain in place for the foreseeable future given economic risks. ECB’s Rehn said earlier that the monetary arsenal hasn’t been exhausted yet.

The Dollar, meanwhile, is currently registering as the strongest of the main currencies on the year-to-date, reflecting international demand for Treasuries (the Dollar is up by 3.9% versus the Aussie dollar, which is the weakest, closely followed by the Kiwi dollar (3.0%) and is showing a near 0.5% gain on the Yen, which is the second strongest).

In the bigger picture, the EURUSD has been trending lower since early 2018, dropping from levels near 1.2500 and posting a 32-month low at 1.0879 in early October, the current nadir of the trend. Momentum has faded, however, with the Fed having backed out of its tightening phase after hiking rates three times last year. The central bank has since been engaged in capping the repo rate, which has seen its balance swell by some 11% since last September, and Fed funds futures are discounting about 72% odds for a 25 bp easing at the last FOMC meeting of the year in December, after the US Presidential election (which the markets are assuming will see Mr. Trump back in the White House).

The FOMC will issue its post-meeting statement at 19:00 GMT later today. There is no reason to expect a change in the fed funds target range of 1.50%-1.75%. Data released since the December meeting did little to change the Fed’s commitment to a policy pause until we see a “material change” in the outlook. The statement and press conference will be monitored closely for any remaining tilt in the Fed’s policy toward easing. Expectations are that the Fed will refrain from signaling further action, either in the statement or the ensuing (19:30) press conference. As ever, nuances and inferences from Jay Powell will be closely followed by market participants, commentators and of course, President Trump.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Stuart Cowell
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#### HFblogNews

##### Active Member
Date : 31st January 2020.

EURUSD & FOMC Preview

GBPUSD, H1

Risk-off positioning in currencies came to an uncertain pause, amid a backdrop of sputtering stock markets amid continuing concerns about the spread of the coronavirus in and out of China, and the economic-damaging impact that efforts to contain the contagion is having.

USDJPY edged out a two-day high as the Japanese currency saw some of its safe-haven premium erode. The pair posted a two-day high at 109.13, putting in a little distance from the 23-day low posted yesterday at 108.58. EURJPY also printed a two-day high, at 120.40, while AUDJPY fared a little less well, holding within its Thursday range, though settling above the three-and-a-half-month lows.

AUDUSD remained heavy after yesterday’s run to a three-and-a-half-month low at 0.6700. This is now the fifth consecutive week the Australian Dollar has declined, with markets factoring in the double-whammy economic impact of the worst-in-decades wildfires and the consequences of dealing with the coronavirus outbreak out of China (to which Australia is particularly exposed, given its strong trading links with China and vastly reduced Chinese tourist visitations over the Lunar New Year period). The RBA meet next week with expectations dimming of a rate cut, making the 0.6700 handle even more significant.

EURUSD has put in another sub-20-pip range so far, holding below yesterday’s one-week peak at 1.1039.

Cable built on the gains seen following yesterday’s BoE no-change policy announcement, which came contrary to at least some expectation for a rate cut. The Pound posted a fresh one-week high at 1.3135. EURGBP concurrently extended to a new one-week low, at 0.8400. Brexit day has dawned and at 23:00 GMT a very disunited kingdom leaves the EU after 47 years.

USDCAD remained buoyant, above 1.3200, although slightly off from yesterday’s seven-week high at 1.3226. The new high was concomitant with oil prices hitting one-year lows. This is now the fourth straight week USDCAD has risen, which has been concomitant with a four-week stretch of tumbling oil prices. The USOil benchmark has dropped by some 21% over this period.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Stuart Cowell
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#### HFblogNews

##### Active Member
Date : 3rd February 2020
Events to Look Out For Next Week.

Chinese markets reopen next week following a global sell-off coupled with escalating disruptions caused by the coronavirus. The spread of the coronavirus is expected to continue dominating the market as it is starting to pose yet another risk to the global economy. Along with monitoring the virus, in the week ahead traders will look to more earnings out of the US, along with the US Jobs Report and RBA rate decision.
Monday – 03 February 2020

• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is expected to hold close to neutral, at 51.5 for January.
• Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 01:45) – The German Manufacturing PMI is likely to once again confirm a recession in the manufacturing sector, at 45.2 for January.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM Index is expected to tick up to 47.5 in January from 47.2 in December, compared to a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of ’18.
Tuesday – 04 February 2020

• Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – No surprises are expected in the RBA’s interest rate decision, while its statement should provide important insights regarding the future of the Australian economy. Market positioning in Australian cash rate futures implies a 19% probability for a 25 bp rate cut, down from the 58% odds being given before the release of an unexpectedly solid employment report out of Australia.
• Labour Market Data (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The final reading for Q4 employment change is expected to show few positive labor reports. The unemployment rate is anticipated at 3.8% from 4.2%, while participation rate is seen rising at 71.1%.
Wednesday – 05 February 2020

• RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 01:30)
• ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen drifting to 155k in the number of employed people in January, compared to the 202k reading seen last month.
• Trade Balance (USD, GMT 13:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen in December to -$49.7 bln from -$43.1 bln in November. The exports are expected to rise 0.3% to $209.3 bln, and imports to rebound by 2.9% to$259.1 bln. A rebound is expected for both oil import prices and volume that prompt a \$3 bln petroleum import bounce, and also for most other commodity components as well, following outsized November declines. Imports from China have sharply undershot the usual seasonal pattern since July, with a particularly big hit in October and November. Tariff front running in late-2018 and early-2019 is now being unwound, though we expect some give-back for this pattern in December.
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI Index is expected to rise to 55.1 in January from 55.0 in December and a recent low of 52.6 in September, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of 2018.
Thursday – 06 February 2020

RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 01:30)

European Commission releases Economic Growth Forecasts (EUR, GMT 10:00)

Friday – 07 February 2020

• NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 50k January Nonfarm payroll rise is seen, following a 145k increase in December. The jobless rate should hold steady at 3.5% for a third month and average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.0%. We will get the annual revisions for the establishment survey with the January report, and guidance suggests a -501k revision in the March 2019 payroll level that implies -42k reductions per month, on average, for the twelve months ending last March.
• Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada’s employment rebounded 35.2k in December after the 71.2k plunge in November. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.9%, undershooting projections for an incremental dip to 5.8%. The participation rate dipped to 65.5% from 65.6%. For January, the unemployment rate is expected to rise at 5.8% while participation rate should remain unchanged.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#### HFblogNews

##### Active Member
Date : 04th February 2020.

US Open and US ISM manufacturing

US Open and US ISM manufacturing – US ISM manufacturing index bounced 3.1 points to 50.9 in January, much better than expected.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Stuart Cowell
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#### HFblogNews

##### Active Member
Date : 05th February 2020.

Understanding Market Basics I - 05th February

In this 90 minutes podcast, especially designed for NEW and inexperienced traders, Andria will outline the Market Basics including Supply & Demand, Fundamental & Technical analysis including some basic charts and market cycles:

• Basic Supply & Demand
• How Fundamental and Technical Analysis differ
• Price Charts, Market Cycles, Trends and Consolidations

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#### HFblogNews

##### Active Member
Date : 06th February 2020.

US Services PMIs also revised higher - 06th February

USDIndex, Daily
The January ISM non-manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 55.5 from 55.1, the December figure sat at 54.9. The components were mixed. The employment sub-index dipped to 53.1 from 54.8 previously (revised from 55.2). New orders improved to 56.2 versus 55.3 (revised from 54.9), though new export orders slipped -0.9 ticks to 50.1. Imports jumped 7.1 points to 55.1. And prices paid fell to 55.5 from from 59.3 (revised from 58.5). Although the headline is below data from 2017 through most of 2019, this a solid report for the economy.

US Markit services PMI was also revised up to 53.4 in the final January print versus the 53.2 preliminary. And it’s up from the 52.8 in December. It was at 54.2 a year ago. It’s the highest since March. The employment component rose to 51.8 from 51.7 in December and is the third straight month of expansion. Prices charged declined. The composite was nudged up to 53.3 from the 53.1 preliminary, and is up from December’s 52.7. It was at 54.4 last January, and also is the best since March. Input prices increased to 52.6 versus December’s 52.5, a fourth straight monthly gain, and are the highest since June. The data continue to show resilience to the nCoV scare.

The PMI data lifted the Greenback and its recovery during January continues into February. The USDIndex is over 98.00 for the time since in the 45 trading days since December 3.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Stuart Cowell
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#### HFblogNews

##### Active Member
Date : 07th February 2020.

Dollar on bid on NFP day - 07th February

The Dollar has remained broadly underpinned following the round of solid US data releases on Thursday, including upbeat consumer confidence and a stabilization in manufacturing after passage of the trade deals. US payrolls will be the other main focus for markets today.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.