HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 21st March 2025.

Gold is Up 14% in 2025 But Has It Peaked?

Gold prices fell on Thursday for the first time this week after reaching a new all-time high. The asset’s safe-haven status drives its bullish trend as the White House confirms new tariffs on April 2nd. On the other hand, the decline, which continues this morning potentially is due to fears the price is overbought or at its peak.

Why Is Gold Increasing in Value?​

The main bullish price driver for Gold is the risk appetite of the market due to fears of a recession. Even the White House acknowledges a short-term downturn, though the administration calls it a ‘transitional period’. A potential recession has also been mentioned by economists including the previous Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers, who advises the chances of a recession in 2025 is around 50%.
The possibility of a recession due to the new trade policy is not only driving the price of Gold but also bond yields and the stock market. The SNP500 has fallen almost 11% over the past 4-weeks. The risk appetite of the market can be seen through the poor performance of the stock market. Furthermore, the VIX index has fallen almost 11% while demand for bonds has risen.
In addition to this, the Federal Reserve made it clear that there is no clear sign yet that the economy will not experience a recession but does expect lower economic growth. The Federal Reserve reduced its projections for the US GDP Growth Rates. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve told journalists that the central bank will continue its wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainties of the trade policy. The Federal Reserve will opt for a reactive approach rather than a proactive approach which may unnecessarily push inflation higher.

Trade Tariffs on April 2nd​

Donald Trump imposed 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports, along with 25% duties on goods from Canada and Mexico. He also enforced 25% sanctions on imported steel and aluminium, prompting retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, unemployment rose to 4.1%, retail sales by only 0.2%, and business activity remained sluggish.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of a potential US recession, and experts suggest that if the trend continues, the Federal Reserve may adopt a more ‘dovish’ stance, pressuring the US dollar. At 20:00 (GMT+2) today, investors await the regulator’s meeting results and a new dot chart forecasting interest rate cuts. Any signal of borrowing cost adjustments could drive XAU/USD prices upward.

XAUUSD (Gold) - Technical Analysis​

The price of XAUUSD this morning during the Asian Session fell, forming a lower swing low for the first time since March 10th. The question which most traders are now asking is whether the price will now continue retracing downwards. Currently, the price in the medium term remains above the 75-EMA and above the 100-SMA which indicates the price still maintains its bullish bias.

However, the price below the VWAP and order flow shows that so far sell orders outnumber buy orders. Therefore, due to the mixed signals, the volatility in the short term will be vital for technical analysts. For example, if the price falls to $3,026, 65% of the retracement has regained downward momentum potentially indicating a downward trend in the short term. Alternatively, at $3,027.90 the instrument will form a bearish breakout which again potentially indicates downward momentum.
However, if the price increases above $3,034.17, a bullish breakout would have formed and the price will be again trading above the main Moving Average.

Key Takeaway Points:​

1. Gold prices surged to an all-time high before dropping, possibly due to overbought concerns.
2. Economic uncertainty and trade policies fuel demand for gold, bonds, and a declining stock market.
3. The Federal Reserve acknowledges economic slowdown risks but remains reactive rather than proactive.
4. The US plans tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, contributing to market volatility and economic concerns.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 24th March 2025.

Market Uncertainty Intensifies Amid Tariff Concerns

Uncertainty has been the driving force in financial markets this year, with recent weeks seeing increased volatility due to ongoing tariff concerns. The global economy is grappling with the effects of the Trump Administration's levies, exacerbating fears over inflation and economic growth. Escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks continue to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. Central banks, while adopting a wait-and-see stance, lean towards a dovish bias (excluding the Bank of Japan) amid rising threats of economic slowdowns. More market turbulence is expected in the short term as the world anticipates the outcome of Trump's April 2 reciprocal tariff decision.

North America: Key Market Events and Economic Indicators​

A packed economic calendar awaits the US this week, featuring key data releases, Federal Reserve commentary, and Treasury supply ahead of quarter-end. Markets remain fixated on the much-anticipated April 2 "tax date" for the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. However, in an unexpected turn, President Trump suggested "flexibility" on tariffs, adding another layer of uncertainty to market expectations.
Key economic releases include:

• February PCE Price Index (Friday) – The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which will be closely monitored for signs of tariff impacts. January's data showed a 0.3% increase in both headline and core prices, with annual rates at 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. February’s report is expected to show a similar trend.
• March Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) – Expected to decline by 4.3 points to 94.0, marking the lowest level in over four years.
• Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday) – A crucial indicator of business investment and economic activity.
• Flash March PMIs and Housing Data – Additional data points that could influence market sentiment.
• Australia’s Inflation Data (Wednesday)

Federal Reserve officials are set to speak throughout the week, though clarity on future policy moves remains unlikely. Key remarks from voters such as Kugler, Barr, and Musalem will be closely analyzed.

Treasury Auctions and Market Yields​

The Treasury market is preparing for $183 billion in shorter-dated note auctions:

• $69 billion in 2-year notes (Tuesday)
• $70 billion in 5-year notes (Wednesday)
• $44 billion in 7-year notes (Thursday)

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged higher, while the dollar remained steady. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira dropped as market volatility persisted due to geopolitical uncertainties.

Stock Market Update: US and European Futures Rise​

US and European stock futures climbed amid signs that the next round of President Trump’s tariffs may be more measured than initially feared. S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 futures advanced, while Asian equities posted mixed performance.

Key Developments Impacting Stocks​

• Targeted U.S. Tariffs: Reports suggest that the next round of US tariffs will be more focused rather than a broad-based global effort. China and Australia have warned of potential economic shocks from US trade policies.
• Investor Sentiment: "The news of more targeted tariffs has been taken positively during early Asian trading hours, but markets remain on edge," said Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd.
• Geopolitical Concerns: Turkish assets face increased volatility following the arrest of a key opposition politician, prompting the country’s central bank to hold a "technical meeting" with commercial lenders in preparation for further market swings.

Corporate and Sector-Specific News​

• Ant Group’s AI Strategy: The Jack Ma-backed Ant Group Co. is leveraging Chinese-made semiconductors to develop AI models that cut costs by 20%, boosting optimism in Chinese tech stocks.
• DeepSeek’s AI Influence: The release of a lower-cost large language model by DeepSeek has fueled a 26% rally in Chinese technology shares this year, with analysts predicting further valuation expansion.
• Commodity Markets: Oil prices remained stable amid uncertainty over new US tariffs and an expected increase in OPEC+ supply. Gold hovered around $3,027 per ounce, near its all-time high reached last Thursday.

Conclusion​

With market volatility heightened by trade uncertainties and global economic concerns, investors will closely track developments in tariff policy, economic data, and central bank commentary for signs of future trends. As April 2 approaches, markets brace for potential disruptions and opportunities in response to evolving US trade strategies.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 26th March 2025.

GBP Comes Under Pressure From Tough Budget and Low Inflation!

The British Pound is one of the worst-performing currencies of the day. The poor performance is due to pressure from low Inflation and what investors expect to be a tough budget. Why is the UK announcing a stricter budget and for how long will there be pressure on the GBP? Let’s find out!

Reasons Investors Are Cautious About The New UK Budget​

The Pound has fallen 0.32% against the USD and more than 0.50% against the Australian and Canadian Dollar. The Pound is not the worst-performing currency of the day yet, but if the GBPJPY continues to decline as it has over the past hour, the GBP will be at the bottom of the table.
The downward momentum is due to the inflation rate which fell from 3.00% to 2.8%. Previously investors were expecting the rate to remain at 3.00%. Many investors fear the fall in inflation is due to weak economic growth and struggling consumer demand. If this continues to be the case, the Bank of England is likely to consider a rate cut.

GBPUSD 30-Minute Chart on March 26th

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) released its retail sales index for March today, showing a decline from -23.0 to -43.0, the lowest level in eight months, compared to the initial forecast of -28.0. According to CBI experts, businesses in the retail and wholesale sectors are experiencing pressure from global trade challenges, while the new government budget, which entails a substantial rise in debt, is further straining demand.
Another key factor contributing to the Pound’s downfall is the UK’s budget and the chancellor's speech. The new UK budget will be released today and the Chancellor will speak in parliament at 12:30 GMT. Investors fear that the chancellor will announce further austerity measures and cuts to the budget. This is mainly in order to spend more on defence and adjust the budget to the weaker economic performance.
The chancellor has also stated that 10,000 public sector jobs may be eliminated, with additional savings potentially coming from changes in the accounting treatment of billions of pounds reallocated from overseas aid to the defence budget.
The question that traders are asking is whether the Pound will continue to decline. This will primarily depend on how strict the budget is, the chancellor's growth projections and how the bond market reacts. Nonetheless, the technical analysis continues to provide a bearish and dim bias for the upcoming 24 hours.

GBPUSD - Technical Analysis Points Towards A Weakening GBP​

The GBPUSD has now been declining since 18:00 GMT Tuesday and failed to form a higher high. Therefore price action is partially indicating downward price movement and this signal will likely strengthen if the price falls below 1.29011. The price is also trading below the 75-bar EMA, 100-bar SMA and below the neutral level of the RSI. These factors also strengthen the bearish bias of the currency exchange.
The US Dollar index is currently trading higher this morning but traders will monitor how the index will react to the European open. This is because the index has fallen 0.08% since the European Cash Open. Nonetheless, the momentum continues to remain mainly in favour of the Dollar. The only concern for traders is the support level at 1.29011.

USDX (US Dollar Index) 30-Minute Chart on March 26th

Key Takeaway Points:​

1. Pound Weakness: The British Pound is struggling due to lower inflation and budget concerns.
2. Retail Sales Drop: The CBI retail index hit an eight-month low, signalling economic strain.
3. Austerity Fears: Investors worry about public sector cuts and defence spending shifts. The bond market reaction will be key for the Pound.
4. Bearish GBP Outlook: Technical indicators suggest further decline, pending budget impact.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 27th March 2025.

SNP500 Erases Gains as Trump’s Aggressive Trade Policy Shakes Markets

The SNP500 fell 1.35% on Wednesday wiping off the gains from the week. The decline is primarily due to fears of the upcoming US trade policy on April 2nd and beyond. In the President’s latest speech investors heard Trump confirm he looks to tax foreign cars with 25% tariffs and will add retaliation tariffs on Canada and the EU if they look to retaliate.

The US Latest Comments On Global Trade​

The main concern for investors is the US President’s latest comments on the EU potentially collaborating with Canada. The two countries are aiming to push the US into a more favourable trade agreement. Donald Trump states that “if the EU works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale tariffs far larger than currently planned will be placed on both”.
Up to now, both Canada and the EU have advised markets that they will retaliate. As a result, investors fear how these policies can trigger lower consumer demand, higher inflation and even a potential recession. The latest consumer confidence fell for the fourth day to 92.9, missing the 94.2 forecast. The economic outlook dropped to 65.2, a 12-year low, staying below the 80.0 recession warning level. However, the Federal Reserve so far in 2025 is advising the US economy remains stable despite the uncertainties.
Furthermore, the US confirms they intend to impose a 25% tariff on all car imports and essential parts, including engines, transmissions, and electrical components. Many countries have already voiced their concerns over this decision.

Where Automakers Build Cars Sold in America

The Federal Reserve and Inflation​

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated yesterday that policymakers may postpone monetary easing for 12 to 18 months due to market uncertainty. He also continues warning that rising inflation expectations could complicate efforts to slow it down.
Another member to voice concerns is Alberto Musalem, a US economist and banker. The risk of US inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, or even increasing, continues to grow, with higher import taxes potentially driving sustained price pressures. In the latest month, US inflation fell from 3.00% to 2.8% which is positive for the stock market, but only if it continues to fall towards 2.00%. There is currently only a 10% chance of an interest rate cut in May 2025 according to the Chicago Exchange.
Economists advise the upcoming data will be vital and can significantly influence the risk appetite of the market. Traders will be focusing on today’s Final US GDP and tomorrow's Core PCE Price Index. If tomorrow’s PCE Price Index reads more than 0.3%, the stock market could quickly witness renewed pressure.

SNP500 (USA500) - Technical Analysis​

Regardless of the above fundamental factors which are triggering the recent decline, the SNP500 has risen 0.35% during this morning’s Asian session. The bullish corrective wave currently measures 40% of yesterday’s bearish impulse wave. Though traders should also note that global indices including within the EU and Asia are continuing to decline.

SNP500 (USA100) 1-Hour Chart

The price in a 15-minute timeframe remains below most trend lines and Moving Averages. In addition to this, the price is again dropping below the neutral level of the RSI and the VWAP. If the price regains downward momentum and falls below $5,701.98, many traders may consider bearish momentum to be regaining ground. At this point, sell signals potentially can materialize.
Further adding to the indications of downward price movement is the VIX index which is currently trading 0.60% higher. The higher the VIX index the lower the appetite there is towards the US stock market. Lastly, the US 10-Year Treasury Yields continue to rise adding further pressure on the stock market. The 10 Year Treasury Yields are currently trading 25 points higher.

Key Takeaway Levels:​

• The SNP500 dropped 1.35% as investors reacted to fears surrounding the upcoming US trade policy changes on April 2nd. This includes a potential 25% tariff on foreign cars and retaliatory tariffs against Canada and the EU.
• Fed officials warn that inflation risks remain high, with import tariffs potentially driving further price pressures.
• Inflation recently fell to 2.8%, but concerns persist about whether it will reach the Fed’s 2% target.
• Traders are closely monitoring upcoming US GDP and Core PCE Price Index data. If PCE exceeds 0.3%, stocks could face renewed pressure.
• Despite a slight rebound in the SNP500, indicators like RSI, VWAP, and the rising VIX index suggest bearish momentum could return, particularly if the index falls below $5,701.98.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 28th March 2025.

Market Selloff Deepens as Tariff Concerns Weigh on Investors

Global stock markets extended their losing streak for a third day as concerns over looming US tariffs and an escalating trade war dampened investor sentiment. The flight to safety saw gold prices surge to a record high, underscoring growing risk aversion.

Stock Selloff Intensifies​

The MSCI World Index recorded its longest losing streak in a month, while Asian equities saw their sharpest decline since late February. US and European stock futures also signalled potential weakness, while cryptocurrency markets retreated and bond yields edged lower.
Investors are scaling back their exposure ahead of President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on April 2. His latest move to impose a 25% levy on all foreign-made automobiles has sparked fresh concerns over inflation and economic growth, prompting traders to reassess their strategies.

Investor Strategies Shift​

Market experts are adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of heightened volatility. ‘It’s impossible to predict Trump’s next move,’ said Xin-Yao Ng of Aberdeen Investments. ‘Our focus is on companies that are less vulnerable to tariff policies while taking advantage of market dips to find value opportunities.’

Yield Curve Signals Economic Concerns​

In the bond market, the spread between 30-year and 5-year US Treasury yields widened to its highest level since early 2022. Investors are bracing for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts if economic growth slows further.
Long-term Treasury yields hit a one-month peak as inflation risks tied to tariffs spurred demand for higher-yielding assets. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that while tariffs may contribute to short-term price increases, their long-term effects remain uncertain.

Gold Hits Record High as Safe-Haven Demand Rises​

Amid market turbulence, gold prices soared 0.7% on Friday, reaching an all-time high of $3,077.60 per ounce. Major banks have raised their price targets for the precious metal, with Goldman Sachs now forecasting gold to hit $3,300 per ounce by year-end.

Looking Ahead​

As investors digest economic data showing US growth acceleration in Q4, attention will turn to Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. This data will be critical in shaping expectations for future Fed policy moves.
With markets on edge and trade tensions escalating, investors will closely monitor upcoming developments, particularly Trump’s tariff announcement next week, which could further dictate market direction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 31st March 2025.

Trump Confirms Tariffs on All Countries, Sending Stocks Lower.

The NASDAQ continues to trade lower due to the US confirming the latest tariffs will be on all countries. In addition to this, bearish volatility also is largely due to the higher inflation data from Friday. The NASDAQ declines to its lowest price since September 11th 2024.

Core PCE Price Index - Inflation Increases Again!​

The PCE Price Index read 2.5% aligning with expert forecasts not triggering any alarm bells. However, the Core PCE Price Index rose from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM and from 2.7% to 2.8% YoY, signalling growing inflationary pressure. This increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. The NASDAQ fell 2.60% due to the higher inflation reading which is known to pressure the stock market due to pressure on consumer demand and a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently commented that tariffs could drive up inflation, though the long-term impact remains uncertain. She told journalists that a short-term spike is the most probable outcome but believes the current pause in monetary policy adjustments is appropriate given the prevailing uncertainties.
Although, certain investment banks such as JP Morgan actually believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates. This is due to expectations that the economy will struggle under the new trade policy. For example, JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts but will quickly cut towards the end of 2025.

Market Risk Appetite Takes a Hit!​

A big factor for the day is the drop in the risk appetite of investors. This can be seen from the VIX which is up almost 6%, Gold which is trading 1.30% higher and the Japanese Yen which is the day’s best performing currency. Most safe haven assets, bar the US Dollar, increase in value. It is also worth noting that all indices are decreasing in value during this morning's Asian session with the Nikkei225 and NASDAQ witnessing the strongest decline.
Previously the stock market rose in value as investors heard rumours that tariffs would only be on certain countries. This bullish swing occurred between March 14th and 25th. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump indicated that the upcoming tariffs would apply to all countries, not just those with the largest trade imbalances with the US.

NASDAQ - Technical Analysis​

In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to obtain indications that sellers control the price action. The price opens on a bearish price gap measuring 0.30% and trades below all Moving Averages on all timeframes. The NASDAQ also trades below the VWAP and almost 100% of the most influential components (stocks) are declining in value.

The next significant support level is at $18,313, and the resistance level stands at $20,367.95.

Key Takeaway Points:​

1. NASDAQ falls to its lowest since September 2024 as the US confirms tariffs on all countries, adding to inflation concerns.
2. Core PCE inflation rises to 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, increasing the likelihood of prolonged high interest rates.
3. Investor risk appetite drops as VIX jumps 6%, gold gains 1.3%, and safe-haven assets outperform.
4. NASDAQ shows strong bearish momentum, trading below key technical levels with support at $18,313 and resistance at $20,367.95.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 1st April 2025.

Will Gold’s Rally Hold Strong as New Trade Tariffs Take Effect Tomorrow?

Gold continues to increase in value for a sixth consecutive day and is trading more than 17% higher in 2025. Amid fear of higher inflation, a recession and the tariffs war escalating investors continue to invest into Gold pushing demand higher. The trade policy from April 2nd onwards continues to be a key factor for the whole market. Can Gold maintain its upward trend?

Trade Policy From Tomorrow Onwards​

Starting as soon as tomorrow, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all passenger cars imported into the United States. While this White House policy is anticipated to negatively affect European industrial performance, it will also lead to higher transportation and maintenance costs for everyday American taxpayers. The negative impact expected on both the EU and US is one of the reasons investors continue to buy Gold.
Additionally, last month, President Donald Trump announced reciprocal sanctions against any trade partners that impose import restrictions on US goods. Furthermore, tariffs on products from Canada and the EU could increase even more if they attempt to coordinate a response.
Overall, investors continue to worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures, particularly from China, the Eurozone, and Japan. Any retaliation is likely to escalate the trade conflict and prompt another reaction from the US. Experts at Goldman Sachs and other investment banks warn that this will lead to rising inflation and unemployment. They also caution that it could effectively halt economic growth in the US.

XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart

The Weakness In The US Dollar​

Another factor which is allowing the price of XAUUSD to increase in value is the US Dollar which has been unable to maintain any bullish momentum. Despite last week’s Core PCE Price Index rising to its highest level since February 2024, the US Dollar has been unable to see any significant rise in value. Due to the US Dollar and Gold's inverse correlation, the price of Gold is benefiting from the Dollar weakness.
Investors worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures from China, the Eurozone, and Japan, potentially escalating the conflict. Experts at The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. believe that such actions by the US administration will drive rising inflation and unemployment while effectively halting economic growth in the country.

Can Gold Maintain Momentum?​

When it comes to technical analysis, the price of Gold is not trading at a price where oscillators are indicating the instrument is overbought. The Relative Strength Index currently trades at 68.88, outside of the overbought area, since Gold’s price fell 0.65% during this morning’s session. However, even with this decline, the price still remains 0.40% higher than the day’s open price.
In terms of fundamental analysis, there continues to be plenty of factors indicating the price could continue to rise. However, the price movement of the week will also partially depend on the employment data from the US.
The US is due to release the JOLTS Job Vacancies for February this afternoon, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change tomorrow, and the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate on Friday. If all data reads higher than expectations, investors may look to sell to lock in profits at the high price.

Key Takeaway Points:​

• Gold’s Rally Continues – Up 17% in 2025 as investors seek safety from inflation, recession fears, and trade tensions.
• Trade War Impact – New US tariffs and potential retaliation from China, the EU, and Japan drive uncertainty, boosting Gold demand.
• Weak US Dollar – The Dollar’s struggle supports Gold’s rise due to their inverse correlation.
• Gold’s Outlook – Uptrend may continue, but US jobs data could trigger profit-taking.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 2nd April 2025.

Market on Edge: Tariff Announcement and Volatility Ahead!

The US economic and employment data continues to deteriorate with the job vacancies figures dropping to a 5-month low. In addition to this, the IMS Manufacturing PMI also fell below expectations. However, both the US Dollar and Gold declined simultaneously following the release of the two figures, an uncommon occurrence in the market. Traders expect a key factor to be today’s ‘liberation day’ where the US will impose tariffs on imports.

USDJPY - Traders Await Tariff Confirmation!​

Traders looking to determine how the USDJPY will look today will find it difficult to determine until the US confirms its tariff plan. Today is the day when Trump previously stated he would finalize and announce his tariff plan. The administration has not yet released the policy, but investors expect it to be the most expansionary in a century. President Trump is due to speak at 20:00 GMT. On HFM's Calendar the speech is stated as "US Liberation Day Tariff Announcement".
Currently, analysts are expecting Trump’s Tariff Plan to impose tariffs on the EU, chips and pharmaceuticals later today as well as reciprocal tariffs. Economists have a good idea of how these tariffs may take effect, but reciprocal tariffs are still unspecified. In addition to this, 25% tariffs on the car industry will start tomorrow. The tariffs on the foreign cars industry are a factor which will particularly impact Japan. Although, traders should note that this is what is expected and is not yet finalised.
Last week, President Trump stated that he would implement retaliatory tariffs but allow exemptions for certain US trade partners. Treasury Secretary Mr Bessent and National Economic Council Director Mr Hassett suggested that the restrictions would primarily target 15 countries responsible for the bulk of the US trade deficit. However, yesterday, Trump contradicted these statements, asserting that additional duties would be imposed on any country that has implemented similar measures against US products.
The day’s volatility will depend on which route the US administration takes. The harshness of the policy will influence both the Japanese Yen as well as the US Dollar.

USDJPY 5-Minute Chart

US Economic and Employment Data​

The JOLT Job Vacancies figure fell below expectations and is lower than the previous month’s figure. The JOLT Job Vacancies read 7.57 million whereas the average of the past 6 months is 7.78 million. The ISM Manufacturing Index also fell below the key level of 50.00 and was 5 points lower than what analysts were expecting.
The data is negative for the US Dollar, particularly as the latest release applies more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, this is unlikely to happen if the trade policy ignites higher and stickier inflation. In the Bank of Japan’s Governor's latest speech, Mr Ueda said that the tariffs are likely to trigger higher inflation.

USDJPY Technical Analysis​

Currently, the Japanese Yen Index is the worst performing of the day while the US Dollar Index is more or less unchanged. However, this is something traders will continue to monitor as the EU session starts.
In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading at the neutral level below the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. The RSI and MACD is also at the neutral level meaning traders should be open to price movements in either direction. On the smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute timeframe, there is a slight bias towards a bullish outcome. However, this is only likely if the latest bearish swing does not drop below the 200-Bar SMA.

The key resistant level can be seen at 150.262 and the support level at 149.115. Breakout levels are at 149.988 and 149.674.

Key Takeaway Points:​

1. Job vacancies hit a five-month low, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions.
2. Traders await confirmation on Trump’s tariff policy, which is expected to impact the EU, chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car industries.
3. The severity of the tariffs will influence both the JPY and the USD, with traders waiting for final policy details.
4. The Japanese Yen Index is the worst index of the day while the US Dollar Index is unchanged.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 3rd April 2025.

Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.

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Key Takeaways:

• Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking.
• President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions.
• Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal.
• Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction.
• Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook.

Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking​

Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.

The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.

Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications​

On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.

Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations​

Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.

Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields​

Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.

Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.

On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.

Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy​

Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.

Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.

Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 4th April 2025.

USDJPY Falls to 25-Week Low as Safe Havens Surge and Markets Eye NFP Data.

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Safe haven currencies and the traditional alternative to the US Dollar continue to increase in value while the Dollar declines. Investors traditionally opt to invest in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc at times of uncertainty and when they wish to avoid the Dollar. The Japanese Yen continues to be the best-performing currency of the week and of the day. Will this continue to be the case after today’s US employment figures?

USDJPY - NFP Data And Trade Negotiations​

The USDJPY is currently trading at a 25-week low and is witnessing one of its strongest declines this week. The exchange rate is no longer obtaining indications from the RSI that the price is oversold. The current bullish swing is obtaining indications of divergence as the price fails to form a higher high. Therefore, short-term momentum is in favour of the US Dollar, but there are still signs the Japanese Yen can regain momentum quickly.

USDJPY 1-Hour Chart


The price movement of the exchange rate in both the short and long term will depend on 3 factors. Today’s US employment data, next week’s inflation rate and most importantly the progress of negotiations between the US and trade partners. If today’s Unemployment Rate increases above 4.1%, the reading will be the highest seen so far in 2025. Currently, the market expects the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.1% and the Non-Farm Payroll Change to add 137,000 jobs. The average NFP reading this year so far has been 194,000.

If data does not meet expectations, US investors may continue to increase exposure away from the Dollar and to other safe-haven assets. Previously investors were expecting only 2 rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, however, most investors now expect up to 4. If today’s employment data deteriorates, economists advise the Federal Reserve may opt to cut interest rates sooner.

Therefore, it is important to note that today’s NFP will influence the USDJPY to a large extent. Whereas in the longer-term, trade negotiations will steal the spotlight. If trade partners are able to negotiate the US Dollar can correct back upwards. Whereas, if other countries retaliate and do not negotiate the US Dollar will remain weak.

USDJPY - The Yen and the Bank of Japan​

The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency in 2025 increasing by 6.70% so far. Risk indicators such as the VIX and High-Low Indexes continue to worsen which is positive for the JPY as a safe haven currency.

Yesterday Japan released March business activity data that came in weaker than expected: the Services PMI dropped from 53.7 to 50.0, while the Composite PMI fell from 52.0 to 48.9. The data is the lowest in two years. These figures could hinder further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. However, most economists still expect the Bank Of Japan to hike at least once more. It's also important to note, that even if the BOJ opts for a prolonged pause, a cut is not likely.

Additionally, a 24% tariff was imposed on Japanese exports to the US yesterday. Prime Minister Mr Ishiba expressed disappointment over Japan's failure to secure a tariff exemption and pledged support measures to help domestic industries manage the impact.

Key Takeaway Points:​

1. US Dollar Weakens, Safe Havens Rise: The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc continue to gain as investors shift away from the US Dollar.
2. USDJPY Under Pressure: USDJPY trades at a 25-week low, with short-term momentum favouring the Dollar but long-term trends pointing to potential Yen strength.
3. NFP and Unemployment Crucial: Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures will heavily influence short-term USDJPY. On the other hand, trade negotiations will dictate longer-term trends.
4. Japan Faces Mixed Signals: Despite weak PMI data and new US tariffs, the Japanese Yen remains strong. Economists expect at least one more rate hike from the Bank of Japan, but no cuts are in sight.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.