HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 20th November 2024.

Market Rebounds as Putin Signals Readiness for Peace Talks; Focus Shifts to NVIDIA!

• US Stocks drop to a 2-week low after Ukraine fired US-made missiles into Russia, but rebound in the US session.
• Putin updates nuclear doctrine, allowing Russia to strike Ukraine if it uses weapons from nuclear-armed nations.
• Walmart again beat earnings expectations pushing the stock 3.00% higher. Earnings Per Share beat expectations by 8.00%.
• The Japanese Yen loses momentum and corrects back to previous lows. The US Dollar maintains strong bullish momentum.
• UK Inflation Rate rises from 1.7% to 2.3% supporting the GBP despite budget concerns continuing.
• NVIDIA is set to release their quarterly earnings report after market close. NVIDIA stock has risen more than 5.00% indicating the market expects a beat.

NASDAQ – All Eyes On NVIDIA Earnings Report!

The NASDAQ ended Tuesday 0.71% higher despite coming under significant pressure during the Asian and European session. The NASDAQ fell 1.20% during the day’s first two sessions due to geopolitical tensions triggering a much lower risk appetite. This is due to the US as well as other countries agreeing to allow Ukraine to strike Russia with foreign made weapons. Ukraine quickly took advantage of this by firing ATACMS into Russia. Russia responded by changing their nuclear weapon use doctrine.

Here we can see why the global stock market fell rapidly. However, why did the market recover during the US session?

During the US session, the risk appetite and confidence of the market improved as the White House confirmed nothing changes with Russia changing their Nuclear Weapons Doctrine. In addition to this, President Putin also said that he would be willing to start peace talks with President Elect Trump. Lastly, the market also took the opportunity to purchase the lower price since NVIDIA’s earnings report is imminent and Walmart already beat their earnings expectations.

Walmart is not a component of the NASDAQ, but has improved the sentiment towards the US stock market. NVIDIA, which is on the NASDAQ, is set to release their quarterly earnings report after market close. NVIDIA stock rose 4.89% yesterday and a further 0.47% this morning indicating the market expects a beat. Analysts expect the company’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.75 and revenue from $30.04 billion to $33.14 billion. As no US economic data is set to be made public throughout the day, investors are solely concentrating on geopolitical tensions and earnings.

The price of the NASDAQ rose above the 75-bar exponential moving average on the 2-hour chart for the first time since 14th. Traders will be monitoring whether the index will be able to maintain momentum above this level and if the price may also rise above the 100-bar SMA. Traders will be waiting for the NASDAQ to regain bullish momentum and if so will act accordingly. Buy signals are likely to rise if the price increases above $20,764.30 and intensifies above $20,777.93.

GBPUSD – UK Inflation Rises Above Expectations!

The price of the GBPUSD increased in value taking the exchange rate to a 1-week high, but concerns remain according to analysts. The exchange rate is trading 0.30% higher after the UK made public their latest inflation rate. The UK inflation rate rose from 1.7% to 2.3% which is higher than previous expectations and considerably higher than the previous month.

The GBP is currently the best performing currency with the Pound index trading 0.21% higher. However, the second best performing is the US Dollar Index which is trading 0.14% higher. Therefore, investors need to be cautious that a retrace or correction is still possible while the US Dollar Index remains high.

Currently the Pound is coming under pressure from the Autumn Budget and from farming strikes which are continuing. However, comments from the Bank of England could support the currency. The BoE warns that planned National Insurance hikes in the Labour budget may drive up prices, slow wage growth, and reduce hiring. Significant inflation could force prolonged tight monetary policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 21th November 2024.

Gold Regains Momentum as NVIDIA Delivers a Revenue Surge!

• NVIDIA beat earnings expectations, and nearly doubled revenue on an annual basis.
• NVIDIA stocks dip slightly despite strong earnings and a strong forecast for the current quarter. Analysts expect market participants to purchase the dip.
• The Japanese Yen wins back some ground as Bank of Japan Governor indicates the regulator will be willing to hike to support the FX market.
• Gold, Silver and other Metals all rise due to predictions of high retail and institutional demand and geopolitical tensions remaining high.

NASDAQ – NVIDIA Surpasses Earnings Expectations!

The NASDAQ took a sudden dip on Wednesday measuring 1.50%, however, investors quickly took the opportunity to purchase at the lower price as most indicators fell to give an oversold indication. As a result, the NASDAQ ended the day only slightly lower than the open price, but downward momentum remains this morning.

The downward momentum is partially due to geopolitical tensions which are on the rise. Yesterday, Ukraine fired UK-made missiles into Russia and fired US-made the day before. There are also reports and speculations that Russia has sent ICB Missiles into Ukraine for the first time. However, reports are not confirmed, and there are signs of certain stocks recovering.

Currently, there is no economic data which is driving the lack of demand, therefore investors are mainly concentrating on NVIDIA earnings. NVIDIA beat earnings expectations by 8.50% and revenue by 5.90%. Investors were particularly impressed by the significantly higher revenue which has almost doubled annually. In addition to this, the forecast given for the current quarter came in relatively strong. Lastly, the CEO, Jenson Huang, said to Bloomberg that demand exceeds supply but the company is setting in place measures to boost supply in order to meet the high level of demand.

Taking into consideration the strong earnings, positive tone and upbeat forecasts for the coming quarter, many may wonder, “why is the stock declining 2.50% during this morning’s Asian session?”. This is partially due to the lower risk appetite, but also due to certain forecast expectations for NVIDIA not being met. The average NVIDIA forecast expectations from Wall Street firms was $37.1 billion, which NVIDIA comfortably surpassed.

However, certain firms had expectations as high as $41 billion. Based on these higher expectations, the company underachieved and could trigger a lack of demand from this sector of Wall Street. Though many analysts continue to expect shareholders to purchase the lower price as long as the stock market will remain favorable.

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EURJPY – BOJ To Consider Hike!

The EURJPY declines for a second consecutive day, particularly gaining bearish momentum after this morning’s Bank of Japan press conference. The main takeaway from the press conference was that the Governor told journalists that the BOJ was willing to hike interest rates in the upcoming months but decisions will be made meeting by meeting.

The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates in July was influenced in part by the weak Yen, which had driven up import costs and inflation. At the Europlace Financial Forum in Tokyo, Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that exchange-rate fluctuations are a key consideration in shaping economic and inflation forecasts. He noted that the central bank carefully examines what is driving these currency changes when assessing their impact.

The EURJPY now trades below the 75-Bar Exponential Moving Average and below the 50.00 on the RSI. In addition to this, the exchange rate continues to form lower swing lows while the Euro underperforms against most currencies. These indications point towards a potential downward price movement.

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Gold – Geopolitical Tensions Send Gold on a Bullish Path!

Gold has increased in value for a fourth consecutive day, driven largely by geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the absence of significant US economic news has left markets uncertain about the Federal Reserve’s next move. Gold is currently witnessing an active buy signal from most momentum-based indicators due to the strong bullish momentum.

For example, traders are able to see the price trading above the Bollinger Band, within a bullish moving average crossover and significantly high on most oscilators. However, investors should note as the price increases, the asset can become overbought and this may trigger a retracement, a correction or sideways price movement.

In terms of geopolitical tensions, hopes for a Middle East ceasefire are being tempered by Russia’s revision of its nuclear doctrine, which aims to strengthen its borders after the US-approved long-range strikes from Ukraine reached deep into Russian territory. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s re-election has yet to significantly influence the conflict, though markets remain optimistic about potential positive developments following his January 20 inauguration.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 22nd November 2024.

BTC flirts with $100K, Stocks higher, Eurozone PMI signals recession risk.

Asia & European Sessions:

• Geopolitical risks are back in the spotlight on fears of escalation in the Ukraine-Russia after Russia reportedly used a new ICBM to retaliate against Ukraine’s use of US and UK made missiles to attack inside Russia.
• The markets continue to assess the election results as President-elect Trump fills in his cabinet choices, with the key Treasury Secretary spot still open.
• The Fed’s rate path continues to be debated with a -25 bp December cut seen as 50-50.
• Earnings season is coming to an end after mixed reports, though AI remains a major driver.
• Profit taking and rebalancing into year-end are adding to gyrations too.
• Wall Street rallied, led by the Dow’s 1.06% broadbased pop. The S&P500 advanced 0.53% and the NASDAQ inched up 0.03%.
• Asian stocks rose after Nvidia’s rally. Nikkei added 1% to 38,415.32 after the Tokyo inflation data slowed to 2.3% in October from 2.5% in the prior month, reaching its lowest level since January. The rally was also supported by chip-related stocks tracked Nvidia.
• Overnight-indexed swaps indicate that it’s certain the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points on Nov. 27, with a 22% chance of a 75 basis points reduction.
• European stocks futures climbed even though German Q3 GDP growth revised down to 0.1% q/q from the 0.2% q/q reported initially.
• Cryptocurrency market has gained approximately $1 trillion since Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 election. Recent announcement for the SEC boosted cryptos. Chair Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, the day Trump is set to be inaugurated. Gensler has pushed for more protections for crypto investors. MicroStrategy Inc.’s plans to accelerate purchases of the token, and the debut of options on US Bitcoin ETFs also support this rally.
• Trump’s transition team has begun discussions on the possibility of creating a new White House position focused on digital asset policy.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The US Dollar recovered overnight and closed at 107.00.
• Bitcoin currently at 99,300, flirting with a run toward the 100,000 level.
• The EURUSD drifts below 1.05, the GBPUSD dips to June’s bottom at 1.2570, while USDJPY rebounded to 154.94.
• The AUDNZD spiked to 2-year highs amid speculation the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate by more than 50 bps next week.
• Oil surged 2.12% to $70.46.
• Gold spiked to 2,697 after escalation alerts between Russia and Ukraine. Heightened geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold has surged by 30% this year. Haven demand balanced out the pressure from a strong USD following mixed US labor data. Silver rose 0.9% to 31.38, while palladium increased by 0.9% to 1,040.85 per ounce. Platinum remained unchanged.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 25th November 2024.

New Secretary Cheers Markets; Trump Trade Eased.

Asia & European Sessions:

• Equities and Treasuries rise, as markets view Donald Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary as a stabilizing decision for the US economy and markets.
• Bessent: Head of macro hedge fund Key Square Group, supports Trump’s tax and tariff policies but gradually. He is expected to focus on economic and market stability rather than political gains. His nomination alleviates concerns over protectionist policies that could escalate inflation, trade tensions, and market volatility.
• Asian stocks rose, driven by gains in Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Chinese equities fail to follow regional trends, presenting investors’ continued disappointment by the lack of strong fiscal measures to boost the economy. The PBOC keeps policy loan rates unchanged after the September cut.
• US futures also see slight increases. 10-year Treasury yields fall by 5 basis points to 4.35%. Nvidia dropped 3.2%, affected by its high valuation and influence on broader market trends. Intuit fell 5.7% after a disappointing earnings forecast. Meta Platforms declined 0.7% following the Supreme Court’s decision to allow a class action lawsuit over the Cambridge Analytica scandal.
• Key events this week:
  • Japan’s CPI, as the BOJ signals a possible policy change at December’s meeting.
  • RBNZ expected to cut its key rate on Wednesday.
  • CPI & GDP from Europe will be released.
  • Traders will focus on the Fed’s November meeting minutes, along with consumer confidence and personal consumption expenditure data, to assess potential rate cuts next year.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The US Dollar declines as US Treasuries climb.
• Bitcoin recovers from a weekend drop, hovering around 98,000, having more than doubled in value this year. Analysts suggest consolidation around the 100,000 level before any potential breakthrough.
• EURUSD recovers slightly to 1.0463 from 1.0320 lows.
• Oil prices drop after the largest weekly increase in nearly two months, with ongoing geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East. UKOIL fell below $75 a barrel, while USOILis at $70.35.
  • • Iran announced plans to boost its nuclear fuel-making capacity after being censured by the UN, increasing the potential for sanctions under Trump’s administration.
    • Israel’s ambassador to the US indicated a potential cease-fire deal with Hezbollah, which could ease concerns about Middle Eastern oil production, a region supplying about a third of the world’s oil.
    • Russia’s war in Ukraine escalated with longer-range missile use, raising concerns about potential disruptions to crude flows.
    • Citigroup and JPMorgan predict that OPEC may delay a planned increase in production for the third time during their meeting this weekend.
• Gold falls to $2667.45 after its largest rise in 20 months last week.Swaps traders see a less-than-even chance the central bank will cut rates next month. Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on gold, as it doesn’t pay interest.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 26th November 2024.

Trump’s tariff threats boosted Dollar; Peso, Loonie, Gold & Oil Lower.

The Trump trade picked up steam as investors cheered his pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. Beliefs he will be a steadying voice in the administration’s fiscal measures, while still following President-elect Trump’s tariff and tax commitments, underpinned.

Asia & European Sessions:

• Trump threatened on Monday to impose sweeping new tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico on his first day as US President to crack down on illegal immigration and drugs. He would impose a 25% tax on all products entering the country from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China as one of his first acts as president of the US.
• Bessent’s 3-3-3 plan aims to cut the deficit to 3% of GDP, boost growth to 3%, and increase oil production to 3 mln barrels.
• Treasury yields dove in a curve flattener, extending their drops through the session, on expectations inflation will decelerate. A strong 2-year auction also supported.
• The Dow led the charge, climbing 0.99% to 44,736, a new record peak as the rally broadens. The S&P500 climbed to 6020, a session peak, but finished with a 0.3% gain to 5987. The NASDAQ closed 0.27% higher.
• Today, stock markets in Europe are posting broad losses, with the DAX down -0.6%, the FTSE 100 0.4%, after a largely weaker close across Asia.
• ECB: Lane suggests ECB must be open-minded on speed of rate cuts. The ECB’s Chief Economist said in a speech on Monday evening that “remaining open-minded about the speed and scale of adjustments is in fact a valuable strategy across various environments, as different situations may necessitate distinct approaches.” This careful, step-by-step strategy enables us to observe the responses of the economy to our decisions and continuously refine our understanding of their impacts.” The comments leave the door open to a 50 bp move in December, but also tie in with our expectation that the central bank will deliver a 25 bp while tweaking the forward guidance and commit to additional moves.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex hit a session high of 107.50 and is currently lower at 106.85.
• Mexican peso and Canadian dollar slumped as the dollar is being viewed as a haven after the comments of President-elect Donald Trump on tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. USDCAD spiked to 1.4177 and USDMXN rallied to 20.74.
• Oil and Gold lost ground, in part on cooling geopolitical risks, and on Trump trades. Oil dropped -3.03% to $69.09 per barrel, in part on the Trump trade and on talk of a potential cease fire between Israel and Hezbollah. Similarly, gold fell -3.26% to $2605 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 27th November 2024.

S&P500 at its 52nd new peak for 2024; USD Firmer, Kiwi & Yen Up.

Asia & European Sessions:

• Wall Street rallied into the close with the S&P500 and Dow registering more record highs with the S&P500 climbing 0.57% to 6045, its 52nd new peak for 2024. The Dow rose 0.28% to 44,860.3 for its 46th record of the year. The NASDAQ advanced 0.63%.
• Trump named Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett to direct the National Economic Council. Greer was intimately involved in Trump’s first-term trade policy decisions.
• President Biden announced Israel and Hezbollah have reached a cease fire. Over the next 60 days the Lebanese army and state security will take control of their own territory and Israel will gradually withdraw its forces.
• FOMC minutes: Minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting revealed officials leaning toward a cautious approach to future rate cuts. All agreed to cut the rate by -25 bps and nearly all thought risks between achieving employment and inflation goals were “roughly in balance.” Upside risks to the inflation outlook were little changed, and while inflation had eased, it remained elevated. The implied December rate continues to hover around a 50-50 bet as we await the PCE price data Wednesday and the crucial jobs report on December 6. The January 2025 rate is priced for a total of 20 bps in cuts, with -75 bps by January 2026.
• RBNZ cut its cash rate by 50 bps, yet the Kiwi gained as traders analyzed the central bank’s rate outlook and the governor’s remarks.
• Chinese government approved a 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) bond quota, enabling two state-owned asset managers to issue bonds for funding projects aimed at spurring economic growth.
• Today: US inflation and economic growth may provide clues to the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex has dropped to currently 106.459.
• The Yen climbed with USDJPY pulling back to 151.82, while NZDUSD jumped to 0.5900 despite the RBNZ’s 50 bps rate cut.
• Oil prices stabilized at $68.84, with optimism over delayed OPEC+ output increases balancing the reduced geopolitical risk stemming from the ceasefire.
• Gold rebounds to 2653.54, with next Resistance at 2660-2664.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 2nd December 2024.

Dollar Strength Ahead of Key Employment Data Pressures Gold!

Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky

• Analysts expect the US Unemployment Rate to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. The US Dollar Index opens higher on Monday after declining for 5 consecutive days.
• According to experts, there is a 67% chance of a rate cut in December from the Fed. However, the decision depends on the NFP and next week’s inflation rate.
• France’s parliament clash on Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s tweaks to the 2025 budget. Le Pen threatens to support a vote of no confidence. European indices decline.
• Oil prices drop back below $70 per barrel supporting US stocks.

Gold – A Stronger US Dollar Pressures Gold!

The price of Gold sharply fell over 1.00% in the opening hours of the Asian and European session taking the price down to Thursday’s support level. The main reason for the decline is the rise in the price of the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index opened on a 0.30% bullish price gap and rose a further 0.23% thereafter. The price of Gold this week will largely be dependent on the US employment data and its effect on the Federal Fund Rate.

Employment data will be made public throughout the week, marking the final update before the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting. This includes tomorrow’s JOLTS Job Openings, Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change and Friday’s NFP data. Notably, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose from 2.1% to 2.3%, with the core index climbing from 2.7% to 2.8%. Strong employment figures could strengthen the case against further monetary policy easing, casting doubt on the likelihood of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December.

While most experts currently anticipate this adjustment, they expect regulators to pause early next year to evaluate the potential impacts of trade policy decisions announced by newly elected President Donald Trump’s administration. If the likelihood of a rate cut remains high, the price of Gold is likely to find support. Whereas, strong employment data and a pause will pressure Gold and support the Dollar further.

Due to today’s decline, the price of gold shows a bearish bias as the price falls below the trend-line and the 100-bar Moving Average. However, the current momentum will determine whether the price obtains a short-term signal indicating a correction or decline. If the price increases above $2632.62 a short-term signal indicating a correction is likely to arise. If the price falls below $2,626.45, the signal will indicate the continuation of downward momentum.

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EURUSD – The Euro Falls As European Politics Trigger Lower Confidence.

The worst performing currency of the day is the Euro which is declining against all currencies. The Euro index currently trades 0.58% lower mainly due to political tension in France and Germany.

Finance Minister Antoine Armand dismissed Marine Le Pen’s push for artificial budget deadlines, even as the far-right leader signaled readiness to topple the government this week. Le Pen’s party has threatened a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Barnier. This is due to the PM adjusting the 2025 budget to include inflation-linked pension indexing and other demands.

S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMIs are expected to stay the same in Germany (43.2 points) and the eurozone (45.2 points). Meanwhile, markets are awaiting October’s data on the Eurozone unemployment rate, currently at 6.3%, along with a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, who may provide updates on the central bank’s monetary policy plans.

While experts believe the ECB is unlikely to make a sharp policy easing, some board members, including Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau, have suggested that a 50-basis-point rate cut in December remains a possibility.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 3rd December 2024.

High Bond Yields Boost Euro, But ECB Signals December Cut!

• The French government is close to collapse due to the French Prime Minister’s persistence on the latest budget.
• French bond yields rise to their highest since 2012 and the Euro attempts to correct upwards during this morning’s session.
• According to state central banks, the ECB will continue cutting interest rates in December. Is the current bullish Euro temporary?
• The SNP500 renewed its highs for a second consecutive day mainly due to gains from Meta, Tesla and Microsoft.

EURUSD – ECB Members Indicate Cut For December!

The US Dollar is declining in value against most currencies this morning after significant gains on Monday. However, the performance throughout the week will depend on the JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, NFP and US Unemployment Rate.

Positive dynamics have been unfolding amid Trump’s warning to BRICS nations against creating a currency alternative to the US Dollar, threatening 100% tariffs on their exports. Experts fear this signals a potential trade war with China, India, Russia, and others. Moscow countered that forcing reliance on the Dollar could erode its appeal as a reserve currency.

Meanwhile, investors await November employment data. With private consumption rising (2.1% to 2.3%) and core inflation increasing (2.7% to 2.8%), further labor market strength could challenge a December rate cut of 25 basis points. Most experts still expect the Fed to proceed, but a pause in rate cuts is anticipated early next year.

Currently, the Euro is the second best performing currency of the day behind the Australian Dollar. Many believe this is partially due to the competitive price and high Bond Yields. However, this can quickly change as the ECB’s dovishness and France’s political and budget crisis continue. ECB Governing Board member Yannis Stournaras indicated today that interest rates are likely to be cut further in December, with experts anticipating a 25 basis point reduction.

For the Euro to maintain a buy signal in the short-term, the price will need to rise above $2,647.92 and this afternoon’s JOLTS Job Opening to fall below expectations.

SNP500 – Stocks Reach All-Time High!

The SNP500 so far this year is trading 27.50% higher and is at an all time high. This is mainly due to gains from Meta, Tesla and Microsoft. On Monday, 59% of the most influential stocks rose in value.

Wedbush Securities reaffirmed an “Outperform” rating on Apple shares with a $300 target, citing a potential record 240 million iPhone sales in fiscal 2025, driven by the new Apple Intelligence AI feature. Last month, Apple reported $94.9 billion in revenue and $1.64 EPS, beating forecasts and last year’s figures.

The performance of the SNP500 will depend on this week’s employment data, similar to the US Dollar. Most analysts believe the ideal scenario for the stock market is for the data to come in as expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 4th December 2024.

Australian Dollar Dives To Significant Support Level!

Trading Leveraged Products is Risky

• US JOLTS Job Openings beat expectations but remains below 8 million job vacancies.
• Australia’s Gross Domestic Product increases to a 5-month high but does not reach previous expectations.
• The Australian Dollar significantly declines during this morning’s trading session due to the GDP miss.
• US stocks shot up after the release of the latest US Job Vacancies and the NASDAQ rose to an all-time high.
• The Euro and the US Dollar continue to move sideways as investors await further US employment data and clarity of the French political crisis.

NASDAQ Rises To An All-Time High, But Risks Remain!

The NASDAQ rose to a new all-time high at 5:40 GMT, during this morning’s Asian session. The bullish price movement seems to be due to the JOLTS Job Openings which painted a picture of resilience but was not high enough to indicate a pause in December from the Federal Reserve. According to economists, the Fed most likely would have drawn the line at 8 million vacancies. However, traders should note that the spotlight remains on NFP, the US Unemployment Rate and the inflation rate. Yesterday’s JOLTS Job Vacancies rose to 7.74 million.

Investors should also note that the above release is the second positive economic data for the US after Monday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI which rose to a 5-month high (48.4). Another positive factor is the NASDAQ remaining above the Volume-weighted average price, as the VIX index falls again and the High Low Index also continues to increase.

However, investors should note that risks still remain. Positive economic and employment data could pressure the Federal Reserve to keep the Fund Rate unchanged. This will particularly become possible if we do not see a sizable decline in inflation. Bond yields did fall towards the end of November which signals a cut from the Fed, but the 10-year bond yields are slowly rising this week.

The NASDAQ has been increasing in value for five consecutive days, and the index is trading at an all-time high. If the index fully forms a bullish candlestick throughout today’s session, investors will become vigilant of a selloff and retracement. Nonetheless, technical analysis and indicators continue to provide buy signals due to the bullish momentum. Currently, the RSI indicates the index is overbought on the 2-hour chart on a period of 18.

AUDUSD – Poor Economic Data Drives The Australian Dollar To 4-Month Low!

The AUDUSD exchange rate is trading at a 4-month low after the positive JOLTS Job data, but when analyzing each currency individually, it is clear the main driver is the Australian Dollar. The worst performing currency of the day is the Australian Dollar while the US Dollar is unchanged. What’s driving the AUD lower?

The decline is largely due to the Gross Domestic Product which rose from 0.2% to 0.3%, but fell short of the 0.5% which traders were expecting. Last Thursday, Australia’s Senate approved amendments to the Reserve Bank Act, creating a Monetary Policy Committee and a separate Board for operational management. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the reforms would enhance the RBA’s independence, clarify its mandate, modernize its structure, and align it with regulators like the Bank of England.



The price of the US Dollar will depend on the upcoming employment data and on the Fed’s monetary policy move. The Federal Reserve has already done the unexpected on one occasion this year, if they decide to pause in December, the US Dollar is likely to significantly rise.

The AUDUSD has fallen 9 of the past 10 weeks and the price is now considerably close to a major support level at 0.63470.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 5th December 2024.

French Government Collapses as ECB Signals Another Rate Cut!

• The French government collapses after a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Michel Barnier. The French government has not collapsed like this in 62 years!
• Economists warn of potential Euro weakness due to ongoing political uncertainty in France and Germany. To pile on the pressure, analysts expect the ECB to cut rates on the 12th.
• US and European indices continue to rise to all-time highs. NASDAQ +1.24%, Dow Jones +0.69%, DAX +1.08% and the CAC40 +0.66%.
• The Federal Reserve Chairman advises the US economy is in a “remarkably good shape”.

EURUSD – Will The EURUSD Find Resistance at 1.05417?

The EURUSD continues to move within the price range between 1.04714 and 1.05417 established over the past 3 days. During this morning’s Asian session the EURUSD moved upwards towards 1.05417 due to the decline in the US Dollar Index. The US Dollar Index traded 0.19% lower this morning but is at the 106.04 support level. Is the EURUSD likely to regain bearish momentum in favor of the USD?

Currently, the exchange rate is not obtaining any clear indications pointing towards bearish price movement. However, as the EURUSD rises to the 1.05417 resistance level, traders will monitor if this price will trigger bearishness throughout the European session which is due to open soon. In order for there to be clearer indications of the EURUSD’s possible decline, traders will be looking for 65% of the current bullish to be regained. This level can be seen at 1.05163, or for the price to fall below the 200-bar Simple Moving Average on the 5-minute timeframe.

European Instability & Political Crisis

Analysts believe the price of the EURUSD is likely to decline in the medium to longer term. This is due to the political crisis in France, Germany as well as the potentially upcoming interest rate cut by the European Central Bank. The French government collapses following a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Michel Barnier, marking the first such event in 62 years! Germany will also hold snap elections in February 2025.

Pressure on the Euro increases after the ECB President MrsLagarde highlighted the region’s economic weakness and declining services sector activity. Croatian National Bank Governor Mr Vujičić said the ECB’s plan to continue cutting interest rates but with smaller gradual cuts. Analysts widely expect a fourth rate adjustment amid deteriorating European business sentiment, though only 20% foresee a 50 basis point cut. Vujičić also warned of growing uncertainty as the ECB adopts more flexible policies, with recent economic data aligning with forecasts, except for November’s inflation, which rose to 2.3% year-on-year due to lingering energy price impacts.

US Economic Strength and Fed Potential Hawkishness

On the other hand, the tone in the US is very different. The Federal Reserve Chairman advises the US economy is in a “remarkably good shape”. After Mr Powell’s speech yesterday evening analysts advised the Chairman had a slightly hawkish tone, but nonetheless, 77.5% of the market believe the Fed will cut 0.25%. If the Fed surprises the market as they did in September, the US Dollar can quickly regain momentum.

The weakness seen during yesterday’s US session and this morning’s Asian session was largely due to the ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI. The ISM Services PMI fell short of expectations, reading 52.1 points. The ADP Employment Change read 146,000, very close to the average expectation of 153,00.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.