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Date: 16th May 2024.

Market News – Stagflationary Risk for Japan; Bonds & Stocks Higher.


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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

  • Stocks and bonds gave a big sigh of relief after CPI and retail sales came in below expectations, supporting beliefs the FOMC will be able to cut rates by September.
  • The markets had positioned for upside surprises. Wall Street surged with all three major indexes climbing to fresh record highs.
  • Technical buying in Treasuries was also supportive after key rate levels were breached, sending yields to the lows since early April.
  • Fed policy outlook: there is increasing optimism for a September rate cut, according to Fed funds futures, BUT most officials say they want several months of data to be confident in their actions. Plus, while price pressures are receding, rates are still well above the 2% target, keeping policy on hold. But the market is now showing about 22 bps in cuts by the end of Q3, with some 48 bps priced in for the end of 2024.
  • Stagflationary Risk for Japan: GDP contracted much sharper than anticipated, for a 3rd quarter in a row. This is mainly due to consumer spending. The GDP deflator though came in higher than expected but still down from the previous quarter. The sharper than anticipated contraction in activity will complicate the outlook for the BoJ, and dent rate hike bets.
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Financial Markets Performance:
  • The USDIndex slumped to 103.95, the first time below the 104 level since April 9.
  • Yen benefitted significantly, with USDJPY currently at 154.35 as easing US inflation boosted bets on the Fed easing monetary policy this year, weakening USD, boosting the Yen.
  • Gold benefited from a weaker Dollar and a rally in bonds and the precious metal is trading at $2389 per ounce. At the same time, the precarious geopolitical situation in the Middle East is underpinning haven demand.
  • Oil prices rebounded slightly after the shinking of US stockpiles and the risk-on mood due to declined US Inflation. However USOil is still at the lowest level in 2 months, at 78.57.
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Market Trends:

  • The NASDAQ popped 1.4% to 16,742. The S&P500 advanced 1.17% to 5308, marking a new handle. And the Dow rose 0.88% to 39,908.
  • Treasury yields tumbled sharply too on the increasingly dovish Fed outlook. Additionally, the break of key technical levels extended the gains to the lowest levels since early April before the shocking CPI data on April 10 boosted rates.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
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Date: 17th May 2024.

Market News – Asian and European futures followed Wall Street lower.


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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

  • The Dow topped 40,000 for the first time ever, but was unable to close with that historic handle. Concurrently, the S&P tried for its 24th record high this year but failed too.
  • The rise in Treasury yields after stronger than expected import prices, and a drumbeat from Fed officials that rates need to remain high for longer, encouraged profit taking.
  • Most Asian equity markets and European futures have followed Wall Street lower, after US data dented rate cut hikes.
  • Chinese data showing slowed consumption and a drop in home sales, although industrial production numbers looked relatively robust.
  • Japan’s core consumer inflation slowed for a 2nd month in a row in April from a year earlier, while the core consumer prices index (CPI) is expected to decelerate to 2.2% from 2.6% in March, the lowest level in 3 months, but still at or above the central bank’s 2% target for more than two years.
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Financial Markets Performance:
  • The USDIndex firmed slightly to 104.518 and up from the day’s nadir of 104.080. But it held a 104 handle for a second straight day. It traded above the 105 level from April 10 until May 15.
  • Silver has surged nearly 25% this year, outpacing Gold and becoming a top-performing commodity, though it remains relatively inexpensive compared to gold. Both metals have hit record highs due to central-bank buying and increased interest in China.
  • USOil is 0.75% higher at $79.23.
Market Trends:

  • All three major US indexes closed slightly in the red after posting all-time highs on Wednesday.
  • The NASDAQ closed with a -0.26% decline, while the S&P500 lost -0.21%, and the Dow was off -0.1% at 39,869. It was a corrective day for Treasuries too. Bonds unwound part of their recent rally that took rates down to the lows since early April.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date: 20th May 2024.

Gold Reaches a New All-Time High: What’s Driving the Surge in Prices?


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  • Gold renews its all-time highs after surging 1.64% on Friday and a further 1.24% during this morning’s Asian session.
  • The price of Gold has risen due to 3 factors; Iran’s helicopter crash killing at least 2 politicians, a potential rate cut and a weaker US Dollar.
  • Commodities all continue to increase with Copper leading after rising a further 3.45% intraday.
  • Investors are refocusing on the NASDAQ in anticipation of NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report, which will be made public mid-week.
XAUUSD – Weaker Dollar and Chinese Demand!

Gold’s price has been increasing for the past 2 weeks but saw significant gains mainly on Friday and early this morning. Another factor investors should note is that the demand is not solely coming from the US trading session but rather all 3 trading sessions (Asian, European & US). Why is Gold again renewing its highs?

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The first factor that investors need to take note of is that the price of all commodities have been rising over the past 2-weeks. Here we can see that commodities in general are seeing demand and lower supply, not solely Gold. The second factor is that China is still noticeably increasing their reserve in Gold as the country looks to enhance its currency. Additionally, the country is looking to de-Dollarize ahead of the US elections. China has considerably increased their orders for the commodity and investors should note that the Renminbi has become the fifth most traded currency in the world.

According to economists, the higher price has a lot to do with the increase in orders from certain countries. In addition to this, some investors continue to predict a rate adjustment from the Federal Reserve after a slight decline in inflation from 3.5% to 3.4%. However, traders should be cautious that the Fed’s representatives are not changing their rhetoric. Loretta Mester said that achieving their target of 2% will take longer than expected, but maintaining current interest rates will help reduce price pressure. The official added that the US Fed needed more evidence of an inflation reduction to begin easing monetary policy. Below are the dates some of the main global banks expect the Federal Reserve to start easing:

July 2024 – JP Morgan & Goldman Sachs

September 2024 – Morgan Stanley & UBS Group

December 2024 – Bank of America and Deutsche Bank AG.

Technical analysis continues to point towards an upward price movement including the VWAP, Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands, though the price is understandably overbought on most oscillators including the RSI. However, based on the previous two impulse waves on the daily chart, the price potentially can increase a further 2-3% before losing momentum if it is going to follow previous patterns.


USA100 – Investors Focus On NVIDIA Earnings Report

The USA100 was the worst performing index on Thursday and Friday. However, the index will again be under the spotlight as NVIDIA’s Quarterly Earnings Report will be released Wednesday evening. Economists have said one of the main reasons behind the loss of momentum towards the end of the week was the “higher weight” stocks underperforming. Of the “magnificent seven” stocks, only three have outperformed the NASDAQ over the past month. These include NVIDIA, Alphabet and Amazon.

On the positive side, the price this morning is increasing as are other global indices, indicating a “risk-on” appetite. Furthermore, an influential factor will be NVIDIA’s earnings and revenue data. Analysts expect the company’s Earnings Per Share to rise 7% and revenue to increase to $24.55 billion, a new record high. If the report is higher than expectations, the price of the stock is likely to rise and support the NASDAQ accordingly.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date: 21st May 2024.

NASDAQ Soars with AI and Semiconductor Stocks Leading the Charge, While AUD Struggles.


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  • The NASDAQ witnesses a large surge in buy orders at the opening of the US trading session, adding 0.80%. The index has added 13.74% in 2024 up to now.
  • AI & Semiconductor stocks are mainly behind the upward surge in the market ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings report tomorrow evening.
  • The Australian Dollar is again the worst performing currency for a second day with the AUD Index trading 0.22% lower.
  • The RBA’s Meeting Minutes confirm the committee deem a “pause” the strongest case, but that a hike may be necessary if data is “overoptimistic”.
USA100 – AI Stocks and The Semi-Conductor Sector Ensure Momentum Continues!

The NASDAQ saw a decline in the price before the US market opened, but quickly changed thereafter. At the opening of the US session, the NASDAQ rose for 3 straight hours adding 0.80% before losing momentum. Due to the bullish momentum, the index again rose to renew its all-time highs.

The best performing stocks with yesterday’s markets were largely AI driven companies as well as companies within the semiconductor sector. Some of the best performing stocks within these sectors were Applied Materials (+3.71%), Lam Research Corp (+3.29%) and Micron Technology (+2.96%). However, investors are of course mainly focusing on NVIDIA which is also likely to determine the investor sentiment towards the index in general. NVIDIA stocks rose 2.49% during yesterday’s session and is trading 0.27% higher during today’s pre-trading hours.

No major events are in the books for the day which may influence NASDAQ. However, investors will monitor the FOMC Member’s speech, Mr Christopher Weller, who is also likely to add to the rhetoric from the past week. However, investors have largely ignored comments from the Fed regarding less rate cuts than previously thought. Therefore, the speech is likely to have minimal effect unless extremely hawkish.

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Technical analysis does continue to point towards an upward price movement in the medium – longer term. The price waves continue to form higher lows and higher highs. Simultaneously, the price of the index is trading above the Moving Averages and above 50.00 on the RSI. However, technical analysts advise the upward price movement may be lesser than yesterday’s due to the upcoming earnings data.

The US 10-year bond yields rose 0.05% during this morning’s Asian session. ideally investors would like to see yields remain no higher than their current point to support a further upward trend. During yesterday’s session 73% of stocks holding a weight of more than half a percent rose. For further upward price movement, investors would ideally like to again see more than 70% of the components rise further.

AUDUSD – A Break Of The Support Level Could Strengthen Sell Signals!

This morning the AUDUSD exchange rate fell 0.33% to retrace upwards when reaching the previous support level. The Australian Dollar Index is the worst performing currency trading 0.22% lower. However, the exchange rate is struggling to gain momentum below the 0.66471 support level. If the price declines below this level, sell signals are likely to strengthen.

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For the exchange rate to gain momentum, the US Dollar Index will also need to support price action. The most recent support for the currency is the hawkish comments from members of the Federal Reserve Open Committee. Mrs. Loretta advises 3 rate cuts are no longer appropriate and more or less not possible, and also advises the market is no longer worried that the policy is too restrictive. Mr Bostic also added to the hawkish rhetoric.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Meeting Minutes confirm that the committee favor a pause and remain largely predictable. However, the Meeting Minutes also state the regulator would consider a hike if data became more optimistic. Nonetheless, this has not yet had a positive effect.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date: 22nd May 2024.

UK Inflation Drop Boosts GBP, But Analysts See Correction Signals.


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  • The NASDAQ forms its 5th bullish wave resulting in the index trading 8% higher this month alone. Investors are waiting for NVIDIA’s earnings report.
  • The market awaits the release of the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes for further indications on the potential rate adjustments.
  • The US Dollar Index declines to a 7-week low, but can tonight’s Meeting Minutes change the trend? Read below what economists are predicting.
  • UK inflation declines from 3.2% to 2.3% in its largest drop since December 2023. The Pound increases as the inflation rate did not decline to 2.1% as previously
GBPUSD – UK Inflation Drops But Does Not Meet Previous Expectations!

The GBPUSD is trading 0.30% higher after the release of April’s UK inflation figures. The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen are the worst performing currencies of the day. Traders looking to speculate a rising Pound may benefit from these weakening currencies. The GBPJPY is trading 0.47% higher so far. However, investors should be cautious of any change in price action as the next session (European Market) opens.

The UK’s inflation figure fell from 3.2% to 2.3% which is the largest drop in 2024 so far and brings the Bank of England closer to its target. This would normally pressure the currency, but there are some factors which have triggered a bullish Pound. This includes the Core Consumer Price Index which fell from 4.2% to 3.9% instead of falling to 3.6% which were the previous expectations. Also, certain sectors did not see a decline in inflation in April, which is a continued concern. For these reasons, investors have increased their exposure to the Pound, supporting the currency. Also, economists are advising that the weakening inflation rate can increase investment demand which also further supports the country’s economy and subsequently the currency.

Furthermore, investors will also need to take into consideration the price condition of the US Dollar individually. Dollar traders will be focusing on tonight’s Federal Open Market Committee’s Meeting Minutes. The market will particularly be looking for clarity on how many adjustments are likely in 2024, if any at all. In addition to this, if an adjustment is likely in July, September or later in the year. If the report indicates less cuts and a delay, the US Dollar potentially can witness further demand and a change in trend. This is something which was particularly seen in April 2024.

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The price action of the GBPUSD is forming a bullish trend and most trend-based indicators are signalling a higher price. However, there are signs that the price may correct back to the previous range. For example, on the 4-Hour chart the price is witnessing a divergence signal. in addition to this, the price is also trading at a significant resistance level from November, December and January. Though, for the resistance level to become active, the Dollar will likely require support from the upcoming Meeting Minutes. In the short term, sell signals are likely to materialize after crossing 1.27400 and 1.27268.


USA100 – Bullish Trend, But Investor Focus On Meeting Minutes & NVIDIA Earnings

The NASDAQ saw a decline in the price as the US Open was approaching, however, the price momentum quickly changed when US investors started trading. The index rose 0.30% by the end of day and was the best performing US index. During the US Session 62.5% of stocks holding a weight of more than 1.00% rose while 37.5% fell. The main price drivers which supported the upward price movement were Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, NVIDIA and Netflix.

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Investors will closely be monitoring the upcoming earnings report for NVIDIA, but also the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes. A more restrictive monetary policy can pressure the stock market, but the level of pressure and downward price movement will also depend on the results of NVIDIA’s earnings. Additionally, shareholders will also focus on Intuit’s Quarterly Earnings Report tomorrow evening, but this will have a lesser effect compared to NVIDIA.

A concern for intraday traders is the decline in indices around the world in markets which are currently open. For example, the DAX, FTSE100, CAC and Nikkei225 are all trading lower. In addition to this, the US 10-Year Bond Yields are trading 0.0027% higher which is additional pressure on equities. Nonetheless, technical analysis in the medium to longer term continue to point to a continued upward trend.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date: 23rd May 2024.

NVIDIA Surpasses Earnings Expectations, Fed Considers Another Rate Hike.


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  • FOMC Meeting Minutes confirms certain members believe the current monetary policy may not be “adequately restrictive”.
  • The US stock market depreciated after the Meeting Minutes. However, investors quickly bought shares after NVIDIA’s Quarterly Earnings Report. The US Stock Market on average rose 0.50% after the Meeting Minutes.
  • NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share rose from $5.16 to $6.12 and Revenue rose 15% in the first quarter of 2024.
  • Yesterday the US Dollar Index rose up to 0.32% and shot upwards 0.15% in the 30-minutes after the Fed release.
USA100 – NVIDIA’s Earnings Increase Sentiment And The NASDAQ To An All-Time High!

On Wednesday, the NASDAQ spent most of the day witnessing intraday declines which gained momentum after the Fed Minutes. After the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes, the NASDAQ was trading 0.69% lower and the SNP500 0.74% lower. The decline was a result of the ultra-hawkish comments within the Federal Open Market Committee regarding monetary policy and inflation. However, as the price fell to $18,619.54, the price thereafter surged more than 1.50% within the next 8-hours.

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The change in trend is a result of the positive Quarterly Earnings Report from NVIDIA. NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share rose from $5.16 to $6.12 and Revenue rose 15% in the first quarter of 2024. Shareholders held onto their shares while buy orders rose triggering a much higher price. In addition to this, NVIDIA’s director’s speech expressed confidence in earnings and the upcoming quarters. NVIDIA’s management also compared their success to the industrial revolution.

As a result, NVIDIA’s stock rose more than 6.00% after market close and is now trading above $1,000. In addition to this, the comments and earnings data had a positive effect on investor sentiment in the broader stock market, but particularly for semiconductors and chipmaking companies. For example, AMD’s stocks rose almost 2.00% and Applied Material Stocks rose 1.75% after NVIDIA’s earnings report.

Due to the volatility the price of the index is obtaining primarily “buy” signals from indications and technical analysis in general. The price has also become “overbought” on the RSI on some timeframes but remains within a buy signal and not overbought on intraday timeframes. Though investors should note that the Fed’s Meeting Minutes does bear risk for the index. This will be expanded on below.


EURUSD – The US Dollar Rises As Fed Members Play With The Thought Of Another Rate Hike!

The EURUSD is trading within an upward facing corrective swing measuring 0.14%. The bullish price movement is currently only forming a retracement pattern as the EURUSD exchange rate has been trading within a bearish trend for 5 days but gained momentum yesterday due to the US Meeting Minutes.

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According to the Meeting Minutes, certain officials believe the policy requires a 25-basis points hike to achieve the 2% target. In addition to this, even the members which are known to be more dovish were troubled by the rise in inflation. Economists continue to believe the Federal Reserve is unlikely to increase rates despite the recent comments. There is a 49% possibility of a rate cut in September according to the CME FedWatch Tool. However, 13.00% of the market believe there will be no cuts at all in 2024.

The hawkish comments regarding higher interest rates are positive for the US Dollar and have triggered various sell signals for the EURUSD. However, investors should also note that a hawkish Fed can also significantly pressure the stock market. Currently, economists are battling amongst each other over whether the higher earnings or the hawkish Fed will be the main price driver. Currently, the higher earnings data is winning, but this may not be the case if inflation does not decline this month.

In terms of the Euro, the latest price driver is the European PMI data for Germany and France. German PMI beat expectations while French data saw a mixed reaction. Investors will now turn their attention to the US data later in this afternoon.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date: 24th May 2024.

Market News – Erosion in Fed rate cut odds; Stocks, Oil & Gold under pressure


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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

Nvidia bigger than entire stock market – Market cap now greater than Australia, South Korea and Russia.

  • After the massive Nvidia beat, rallying over 9% on the day, failed to reinvigorate the rally at the close. It was unable to support the major indexes.
  • Wall street: The profit takers ruined the party, taking advantage of recent record highs to take some chips off the table. Erosion in Fed rate cut expectations provided extra incentive to sell.
  • Strong US economic activity: Strong PMI, tight jobless claims, slump in Home sales and high home prices pushed Fed rate cut expectations further back. US jobs data released showed initial applications for unemployment were slightly lower than expected, indicating the economy was holding up despite high rates. The data, Fedspeak and the FOMC minutes, have cast doubt over whether officials will have enough evidence of the disinflation trend to begin cutting rates by September.
  • It is an early close in bonds today and that could accelerate activity as traders position ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend.
Asian & European Open:
  • Asian equities dropped today, following Wall Street lower.
  • Chinese officials announced an Rmb300bn ($42bn) lending package to help buy back real estate from the nation’s indebted property developers.
  • Japan: Inflation slowed for the 2nd straight month in April, making it difficult for BOJ to proceed with further tightening. Inflation could pick up due to weaker Yen and rising Oil.
  • BOE UK consumer confidence recovered while retail sales slumped. For the BoE that means there is less risk of a wage-price spiral as companies will increasingly struggle to pass on higher labor costs. More arguments in favor of an early rate cut then, despite recent data showing that headline inflation is not coming down as fast as hoped.
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Financial Markets Performance:
  • The USDIndex found its footing, extending against G10 for a 5th day.
  • Pound dropped after the UK Retail Sales, with GBPUSD at 1.2670.
  • Oil declined after hitting its 3-month low as the market flashed signs of weakness ahead of the US summer driving season. Elsewhere, Gold remains weak at $2337, for a 3rd day.
Market Trends:

  • The Dow lost -1.5% to 39,065 with Boeing down over -7%. Live Nation dove as the DoJ filed suit to divest Ticketmaster. The S&P500 slumped -0.74% to 5267. And the NASDAQ declined -0.39%.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date: 27th May 2024.

The New Zealand Dollar Tops All Currencies, Gold Lags Behind Silver!


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  • Silver and Gold increase in value during Monday’s Asian Session. Silver rises more than 2.00%, considerably more than Gold. Will Gold gain momentum during the US trading session?
  • Citi Group advise the price of Gold can potentially rise to $3,000 in the next 12 months. The institution also advises commodity prices are likely to remain high.
  • The New Zealand Dollar is the best performing currency on Monday followed by the Japanese Yen. The Yen loses momentum as the Asian Session comes to an end.
  • Of the NASDAQ’s 20 most influential stocks, only 4 ended Friday’s session in the red. The index ended the session 1.10% high and 0.06% higher in today’s Asian Session.
XAUUSD – Gold Lags Behind Silver, But Where Will Buy Signals Materialize?

The price of Gold fell significantly for 3 consecutive days and a total of more than 5.00%. However, investors want to determine how the price is likely to develop throughout the week. On the 2-hour chart the price is trading below the 50.00 on the RSI and below the 75-Bar EMA. Both these indicate a downward price movement. However, the price is trading at a previous support level and the RSI has risen above 40.00. So, at which point are investors likely to see buy or sell signals?

The strongest signals will be able to be seen if the price witnesses a downward price movement as this will also be in line with the 2-hour chart and not provide conflicting signals. If the price trades below $2,341.30, the price will see an ultra-short-term signal for some bearish price action. If the price trades below $2,338.95, a short-term signal will indicate a slightly larger decline. Bullish signals will be active above $2,345.00 or at the breakout at $2,347.50.

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-05-27T103704.227-1024x577.png




According to Citi group, the price of Gold still has the possibility of reaching as high as $3,000, but would require the Federal Reserve to start adjusting their policy. According to Citi Group, five rate hikes over the next 12 months will put Gold priced at $3,000. However, many economists believe the Federal Reserve will only cut on 1-2 occasion in 2024. Fed officials said the share of goods whose prices were growing by 3–5% or higher is now greater than it should be under normal conditions, and the employment sector remains resistant to the measures taken. However, according to Bostic, a transition to reducing borrowing costs is possible but not earlier than October.


NZDCHF – High Inflation Continues to Support The New Zealand Dollar

The best performing currency of the day is the New Zealand Dollar, while the worst performing is the Swiss Franc. However, due to the larger spread, which is traditional to this pair, investors hold on for larger price movements. On the 2-hour chart the price of the exchange has continuously traded above the 75-Bar EMA since the 13th May and is trading almost 3.50% higher over the past month.

The upward price movement is largely due to the high inflation in New Zealand and the central banks reluctancy to indicate a rate adjustment in the near future. In addition to this, the Swiss National Bank also is believed to be one of the most bearish central bank globally. New Zealand’s inflation rate is continuing to decline and is not witnessing a slowdown like the US. However, the inflation rate remains at 4.00% significantly higher than Switzerland’s 1.4% inflation rate.

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-MARKET-UPDATE-2024-05-27T103401.245-1024x577.png



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date: 28th May 2024.

Market News – Stocks Mixed, USD Down ahead of crucial inflation data later this week.


inflation_1200x628-696x364.jpg

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

  • ECB officials continue to flag a June cut, but even ECB chief economist Lane, hardly one of the hawks, stressed that policy settings will likely have to remain restrictive for the rest of the year. ECB’s Schnabel wants to reserve QE for moments of crisis. Villeroy says ECB shouldn’t rule out July cut.
  • Lagarde will have to perform a difficult balancing act next week, to convince markets that all options remain open for the second half of the year.
  • FT reported: Chinese property developers saw their shares rally in recent weeks after Beijing announced a real estate support package, but have subsequently sold off amid concerns the measures will not be enough to help the stricken sector.
  • Japan’s service prices rose 2.8% year-on-year, the fastest increase in over 30 years, indicating a broadening inflation trend. This jump, surpassing economists’ 2.3% forecast, supports the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. The BOJ sees service prices as crucial for gauging inflation spread. This data may prompt the BOJ to consider an earlier rate hike, with some forecasts suggesting a possible move by July.
Asian & European Open:
  • Chinese equities declined with real estate companies dragging down the country’s benchmark index.
  • European & US futures arehigher as the Dollar slipped before a swath of inflation prints that’s expected to influence the direction of global monetary policy.
  • All eyes this week are on fresh inflation data from Australia to Japan, the euro region and the US. The ECB is set to release its April CPI expectations later in the day.
Copy-of-TELEGRAM-28.png

Financial Markets Performance:
  • The USDIndex slipped for a 2nd day, retesting 6-month trendline. Currently set at 104.35.
  • Gold prices remained steady as the Dollar eased, with investors eyeing key US inflation data for hints on potential Fed rate cuts. Spot gold held at $2,342 per ounce.
  • Oil prices steadied after 2 days of gains, i.e. at $78.70, despite rising Middle East tensions following the death of an Egyptian soldier in a clash with Israeli troops. Overall, prices have dipped since early April due to weakening demand from Asia, leading Brent’s prompt spread close to a contango structure, signaling increasing supply relative to consumption.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date: 29th May 2024.

Market News – Stocks drop with bonds.


eu_update_pic_nov18-1-696x391.jpg

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

  • The NASDAQ was the star as the markets, of it rallied 0.59% to close at 17,019.88 for a fresh record high. And it is its first time over the 17,000 level. A 7% pop from Nvidia supported.
  • Fed Kashkari said he wants to see “many more months” of positive inflation data before a rate cut.
  • German GfK consumer confidence improves further. All signs are that consumption trends should improve with the rise in real-disposable income as falling inflation, rising wages and the prospect of rate cuts boost sentiment.
  • US consumer confidence beat assumptions. Confidence has displayed only a slight updraft since mid-2022, after a prior deterioration from mid-2021 peaks.
Asian & European Open:
  • European & US stocks slipped earlier today against a backdrop of rising government bond yields. DAX fell 0.2% and FTSE lost 0.06%. Traders are pricing in that the ECB will lower its deposit rate when policymakers meet next week.
  • Asia stock market dipped as Chinese tech and property companies declined. The Hang Seng Tech index shed 2.3%.
Copy-of-TELEGRAM-29.png

Financial Markets Performance:
  • The USDIndex is steady and Treasury yields also held firm ahead of key inflation data, which could offer more clarity on the Fed rate trajectory.
  • The USDJPY fell to 156.88 nearing levels that prompted suspected interventions by Tokyo in late April and early May. Currently rebounded again above 157. Japanese officials might issue verbal warnings again, but without tangible action, the USDJPY could march towards late April levels
  • The EURUSD dipped to 1.0830 but still marked its first monthly gain in 2024. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD was last at 1.2760.
  • Gold steadied at $2350 per ounce as markets wait for key US PCE numbers at the end of the week. Bullion hit a record high early last week, only to post the sharpest weekly correction this year as the Fed reiterated the “high-for-longer” message.
  • Oil broke the $80 barrier as Middle East tensions have picked up again. Markets are now looking ahead to the release of key US inflation data and the OPEC+ meeting on June 2.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
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