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ForexTechnical Analysis(FxGlory.com)

AUDNZD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 06.08.2024


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Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The AUD/NZD currency pair represents the exchange rate between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The recent economic data from both countries indicate potential influences on this pair. Australia's economic releases, including Retail Sales and Trade Balance, show a robust economic environment. Higher-than-expected Retail Sales figures suggest strong consumer spending, which is positive for the AUD. On the other hand, New Zealand's employment data, such as the Unemployment Rate and Employment Change, also show positive trends, which can strengthen the NZD. However, given the overall economic conditions and central bank policies, the AUD appears poised for a bullish movement against the NZD.


Price Action:
The AUDNZD pair analysis on the H4 timeframe shows a potential end to the recent bearish trend. The price has broken out of a descending trend line, suggesting a possible reversal or a pause in the bearish momentum. The candlestick pattern indicates a recovery, with green candles emerging after hitting a significant support level.


Key Technical Indicators:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, where the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, indicating a potential shift to bullish momentum. The histogram also supports this with increasing positive values, suggesting that the buying pressure is intensifying.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI has recovered from the oversold area, moving above the 30 level, which signals the end of bearish momentum and the start of a potential bullish run.


Support and Resistance:
Support:
Immediate support is located at 1.08555, a level that has been tested recently and held firm, indicating strong buying interest at this level.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.09416, which coincides with recent highs and the breakout area of the descending trend line.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDNZD pair on the H4 chart indicates a potential bullish reversal, supported by the MACD and RSI indicators. The breakout of the descending trend line and the price recovery from the support level of 1.08555 suggest that the bulls might be taking control. Traders should consider this bullish scenario and look for buying opportunities on retracements, particularly around the 1.08555 support area. Monitoring upcoming economic releases from both Australia and New Zealand will be crucial, as they can introduce significant volatility and potentially alter the trend dynamics.


Disclaimer: The AUDNZD provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information. Always consider risk management strategies and consult with a financial advisor if necessary.


FXGlory
06.08.2024



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EURCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.08.2024


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Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The EURCAD currency pair represents the exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Recent economic data from both the Eurozone and Canada indicate potential influences on this pair.

Euro (EUR)

  • German Industrial Production m/m: The latest data shows an increase of 1.0%, a significant recovery from the previous -2.5%. This indicates a rebound in Germany's industrial sector, which is positive for the EUR.
  • German Trade Balance: The trade balance stands at 21.7B, slightly below the previous 24.9B. While this shows a slight decrease, the large surplus continues to support the EUR.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)

  • Ivey PMI: The latest figure is 60.0, lower than the previous 62.5. A PMI above 50 generally indicates expansion, but the drop suggests a slowing pace of growth, which could weaken the CAD.
  • BOC Summary of Deliberations: The Bank of Canada's recent deliberations will provide insight into future monetary policy, which is crucial for the CAD's strength. Any dovish tone could negatively impact the CAD.


Price Action:

The EURCAD pair has been through a bearish phase and is currently testing a significant support zone around the 1.50000 level. This area is crucial as it has held in the past, providing a potential floor for the pair.



Key Technical Indicators:

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD indicator shows that although the trend has been bearish, the MACD line is trending higher, suggesting decreasing bearish momentum. The histogram supports this with declining negative values.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is in a neutral area, around 40, indicating that the pair is not currently oversold or overbought. This suggests that the current price level is a potential point of consolidation or reversal.


Support and Resistance:

Support
: Immediate support is located at 1.50000. This level is critical as it has been tested recently and held firm, indicating strong buying interest.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.50313, followed by 1.49961, which aligns with recent highs and the descending trend line.



Conclusion and Consideration:

The EURCAD pair on the H4 chart indicates a potential consolidation or reversal at the 1.50000 support level. The MACD and RSI indicators suggest that the bearish momentum might be waning, offering a possible opportunity for bulls. Traders should monitor this support area closely for potential buying opportunities, especially if the pair holds above 1.50000. Upcoming economic releases from both the Eurozone and Canada will be crucial, as they can introduce significant volatility and potentially alter the trend dynamics.



Disclaimer: The EURCAD provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information. Always consider risk management strategies and consult with a financial advisor if necessary.


FXGlory
07.08.2024



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USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.08.2024


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Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The USDCAD currency pair is influenced today by significant economic data releases from Canada. The Canadian Employment Change report shows an increase of 26.9K jobs, which is higher than anticipated, signaling a strengthening labor market. Concurrently, the Canadian Unemployment Rate is reported at 6.5%. These figures indicate a robust economic environment in Canada, which could bolster the CAD against the USD. Traders will likely monitor these figures closely, as they could lead to increased volatility in the USDCAD pair. On the US side, no major data releases are expected, leaving the CAD's strength as the primary driver for today’s market moves.


Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, USDCAD is currently exhibiting bearish momentum, following a breakdown from an ascending channel. The USDCAD price has moved lower after reaching a peak around 1.3938, and it is now hovering between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. The formation of lower highs and lower lows within the descending channel suggests continued bearish pressure. The recent candles show consolidation, indicating a potential pause or retracement before the next directional move.


Key Technical Indicators:
Alligator Indicator (Lips - Green, Teeth - Red, Jaws - Blue):
The Alligator indicator shows the Lips below the Teeth and the Teeth below the Jaws, confirming the bearish trend. The widening of these lines further supports the continuation of the downtrend, with the current price action adhering closely to this structure.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is below the zero line, and the MACD line is slightly below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. The declining histogram bars suggest weakening bearish strength, which could indicate a potential for short-term consolidation or a minor bullish retracement.
%R (Williams %R): The %R is currently near the oversold region at -68.96. This suggests that the pair is approaching an area where a bullish correction might occur, although the strong downtrend could limit any significant upside movement.
Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse): The Parabolic SAR has recently placed dots below the candles, indicating a potential shift in momentum. However, given the prevailing downtrend and the positioning of other indicators, this could be a short-lived retracement unless supported by stronger buying pressure.


Support and Resistance:
Support:
Immediate support is seen at the 1.3700 level, which aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this could see the price moving towards the next significant support at 1.3600.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.3775, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A move above this level might encounter further resistance at 1.3830.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD pair on the H4 chart currently reflects a bearish outlook, with strong downtrend indicators and critical price levels being tested. Traders should closely watch the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for potential price reactions. The Canadian employment data suggests underlying strength in the CAD, which could continue to weigh on the pair. However, the potential for a minor bullish correction exists if the pair finds support at current levels.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis for USDCAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential for traders to conduct their own research before making trading decisions. Consideration should be given to the potential risks involved in trading financial instruments.


FXGlory
09.08.2024

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EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.08.2024



EURUSD_H4_Chart_Daily_Technical_and_Fundamental_Analysis_for_08.jpg


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:


The EUR/USD news analysis today is influenced by a combination of Eurozone and U.S. economic factors. Recently, the U.S. Treasury released its Monthly Treasury Statement, indicating a difference in the federal government's income and spending, which could potentially impact the U.S. Dollar depending on whether the deficit is larger or smaller than expected. Additionally, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's inflation expectations report could sway investor sentiment if the forecast differs significantly from the actual data. On the Euro side, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) from Destatis, which indicates changes in the price of goods sold by wholesalers, will be a crucial indicator to monitor as it may hint at upcoming consumer inflation trends in the Eurozone. These factors combined suggest that market participants should remain cautious of any news releases that might have an effect on today’s EUR/USD forecast.


Price Action:

The EUR/USD H4 chart demonstrates a bearish trend for the pair also known as the ‘Fiber’, with the price nearing the Ichimoku Cloud, which it seems poised to break downward. The Fiber’s price action shows consolidation within a descending triangle pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend if the lower boundary of the pattern is breached. The recent candlesticks suggest indecision, but with a bearish bias, as indicated by the rejection of higher prices and the subsequent movement toward the triangle's lower trendline.


Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud:


The price is currently approaching the lower edge of the Ichimoku Cloud. A break below the cloud would signify a bearish continuation, potentially leading to further downside. The cloud ahead is thin, suggesting weak future support levels.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

The RSI is at 51.27, hovering around the midline, which indicates a neutral stance. However, given the recent price action and the prevailing bearish trend, the RSI might dip further, signaling increasing selling pressure.

Stochastic Oscillator:

The MACD histogram shows decreasing momentum, with the MACD line close to crossing below the signal line. This potential bearish crossover could confirm a continuation of the downward trend.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:


The nearest resistance levels are at 1.09364 and 1.09195, which correspond to previous highs and could act as barriers to any upward movement.

Resistance Levels:

The immediate support is at 1.08962. If the price breaks below this level, it may find further support around 1.08350, which aligns with the lower boundary of the descending triangle.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The EUR/USD technical analysis on the pair’s H4 chart suggests a bearish outlook, particularly with the price nearing a critical support level within a descending triangle. The technical indicators align with this view, signaling potential downside risks if the support at 1.08962 is breached. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming economic data releases as they could have significant effects on the Fiber’s fundamental analysis. Given the current technical setup, short positions might be favored, but caution is advised, especially around key support and resistance levels.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
12.08.2024


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GBP/AUD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 13.08.2024

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Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

The GBP/AUD forecast today is influenced by a mix of economic indicators from both the UK and Australia that paint a complex picture of the potential market directions. The UK sees a decrease in Claimant Count Change and a slight uptick in the Unemployment Rate, combined with a reduction in the Average Earnings Index. In contrast, Australia's economic indicators such as the Westpac Consumer Sentiment and NAB Business Confidence show a mixed economic sentiment, while the Wage Price Index suggests rising wage pressures. These data releases provide critical insights into the economic health of both nations, influencing the GBP/AUD trading strategy.


Price Action:
The GBP/AUD pair has been experiencing a bearish wave but shows signs of potential reversal. The price action is forming a descending triangle, with recent lows higher than previous ones, indicating weakening downward momentum. Traders should closely monitor this pattern for a breakout which could signal a new trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI nears 45 and shows signs of a bullish reversal, which aligns with the weakening bearish momentum observed in the price action. This suggests that the current bearish trend might be losing strength.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicates a decline in bearish momentum with the histogram showing less negativity, suggesting a potential shift towards a bullish market phase if the descending triangle resistance is breached.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:

The nearest support is at 1.93200, with additional support at 1.93000. These levels are crucial for maintaining the broader uptrend.
Resistance Levels:
The pair is facing resistance at 1.94655, with stronger resistance at 1.95555. A break above these levels could signal a continuation of the bullish trend.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/AUD H4 chart suggests that the bearish momentum is fading with key economic indicators and technical signals pointing towards a possible trend reversal. The outcome of the current patterns could be significantly influenced by further economic releases and market sentiment. Traders should maintain vigilance and adjust their strategies based on the evolving market conditions and economic data.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
13.08.2024

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GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 14.08.2024


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Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The GBP/USD forecast today is shaped by ongoing developments in the UK and US economies. In the UK, recent data has shown a slight increase in the unemployment rate, which could suggest a cooling labor market, while inflation remains elevated, keeping the Bank of England on alert for further rate hikes. In the US, economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have shown resilience, keeping the Federal Reserve on a tightrope between taming inflation and sustaining economic growth. These factors create a complex environment for GBP/USD, as traders weigh the relative strength of both currencies.



Price Action:
The GBP/USD price recently broke above a significant dynamic resistance zone, indicating a potential end to the bearish phase that has dominated the market. The price action suggests that the pair is now entering a consolidation phase after this breakout, with the possibility of retesting the recently broken dynamic support zone before continuing its upward trajectory.



Key Technical Indicators:

RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is currently in the overbought territory, hovering around 72. This suggests that the pair may be due for a short-term correction or consolidation before resuming its upward movement.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD shows a strong buy signal, with the histogram indicating increasing bullish momentum. This aligns with the recent breakout above the resistance zone, supporting the case for further upside potential.



Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:

The nearest support is at 1.27353, which corresponds to the dynamic support zone recently broken. A retest of this level could provide a strong buying opportunity and this situation is predicted for GBPUSD. Additional support is noted at 1.26641, which would be critical if the pair sees a deeper pullback.

Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance is seen around 1.28850. This area is forecasted to be an important area for GBPUSD A break above this level could accelerate the bullish trend. Further resistance is noted at 1.29410, which would be the next target for bulls if the current momentum continues.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/USD H4 chart analysis suggests that the bearish phase may have concluded, with the price now likely to enter a bullish trend following a potential retest of the dynamic support zone. However, traders should be cautious of the RSI being in overbought territory, indicating a possible short-term pullback or consolidation. The strong buy signal from the MACD further reinforces the potential for continued upward movement after any correction. As always, market participants should monitor upcoming economic data and global developments, adjusting their strategies accordingly.



Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
14.08.2024

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AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 15.08.2024


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Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The AUD/USD news analysis today is influenced by several key fundamental factors, these economic data are released from both Australia and the United States, most of the time leading to increased volatility in the pair commonly known as the “Aussie”. Australia's economic health, particularly in areas such as employment, inflation, and consumer spending, plays a crucial role in determining the strength of the Australian Dollar. On the other hand, the US Dollar is affected by economic indicators like retail sales, jobless claims, and manufacturing indexes. Given the interconnectedness of the global economy, shifts in US monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, have a significant impact on the AUD/USD exchange rate. The upcoming economic data for the US, such as retail sales and unemployment claims, are likely to drive the pair’s market sentiment and could affect the Aussie’s forecast.


Price Action:
The AUD/USD H4 chart, shows a steady uptrend after a prolonged downtrend, as indicated by the price movements above the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair’s price action suggests that the pair is currently in a consolidation phase, with potential for continued bullish momentum. The price has recently bounced from a key support level and is now trading within a rising channel. The Aussie is facing resistance near the upper boundary of this channel, and a breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the uptrend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud:
The AUD/USD price is trending above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating its bullish market environment. The cloud itself acts as a support zone, and the price's position above it suggests that the uptrend is still intact. However, the flat Kijun-Sen line might indicate some hesitation or consolidation in the near term.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering around 50, which is a neutral zone, suggesting that the market is not overbought or oversold. This level indicates that there is room for further price movement in either direction, but the current consolidation phase might lead to a continuation of the existing trend if the RSI begins to rise.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, with a positive histogram, indicating that bullish momentum is still present. The increasing distance between the MACD line and the signal line suggests that the upward movement could continue if the current trend persists.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels:
The first support is located at 0.6596, which is the lower boundary of the rising channel and close to the Ichimoku Cloud. The next significant support level is at 0.6516, aligning with a previous swing low and the bottom of the cloud.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 0.6640, which is the upper boundary of the rising channel. A breakout above this level could see the price move towards the next resistance at 0.6680, which coincides with a previous high.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD technical analysis today is showing signs of a potential continuation of the Aussie’s bullish trend, supported by the positive signals from the Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and the price's position within the rising channel. The RSI indicates that the market is currently in a neutral state, allowing for further price movement in either direction. Traders should monitor the upcoming US economic data releases, as these could influence the strength of the USD and impact the AUD/USD fundamental outlook. A breakout above the 0.6640 resistance level could signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a drop below the 0.6596 support could indicate a potential reversal or deeper consolidation.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
15.08.2024



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GBP/CAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 16.08.2024


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Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The GBPCAD currency pair represents the exchange rate between the British Pound (GBP) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Today, the GBP might experience fluctuations due to upcoming economic data releases, such as the UK's retail sales figures, which can provide insight into consumer spending and economic health. Meanwhile, the CAD is likely to be influenced by the release of Canadian inflation data, which will be closely monitored for any indications of future monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of Canada. Additionally, oil prices, a critical factor for the CAD, remain volatile, potentially affecting the CAD's strength against the GBP.


Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, the GBP/CAD has exhibited a bullish trend over the past week. The price has been moving within an ascending channel, as indicated by the clear higher highs and higher lows formation. The last three candles have been bullish, with the most recent candle closing near a key resistance level, suggesting strong buying momentum. However, the price is nearing the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which may act as a resistance zone, potentially leading to a consolidation phase or a minor pullback.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR (0.2):
The Parabolic SAR indicator shows a bullish trend, with the last three dots placed below the candlesticks. This positioning of the Parabolic SAR below the price indicates continued upward momentum. The recent bullish candles reinforce the likelihood of further gains in the short term unless a reversal signal emerges.
Alligator Indicator: The Alligator indicator is currently bullish, with the green lips line (fastest moving average) crossing above the red teeth line (medium moving average) and the red teeth line positioned above the blue jaws line (slowest moving average). This alignment of the Alligator's lines indicates that the upward trend is strengthening, with the GBPCAD price likely to continue its bullish movement in the near term.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is in bullish territory, with the MACD line above the signal line. The histogram bars are positive, indicating that the bullish momentum is gaining strength. The widening gap between the MACD and the signal line suggests an acceleration in the upward trend, although traders should watch for any signs of divergence that could indicate a potential trend reversal.
%R (14): The Williams %R is currently around -8.62, indicating that the GBP CAD pair is in overbought territory. While this suggests that the bullish trend is strong, it also signals a potential for a short-term correction as the market may be overstretched. Traders should be cautious of a possible pullback or consolidation in the coming sessions.


Support and Resistance:
Support:
Immediate support is located at 1.75615, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This level has acted as a strong support in the past and could provide a base for further upward movement if the price tests this area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.76740, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A break above this level could open the door for further gains, potentially targeting the next resistance around 1.77500.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/CAD forex pair on the H4 chart shows strong bullish momentum supported by the Parabolic SAR, Alligator, MACD, and %R indicators. The current price action within the ascending channel indicates that the bulls remain in control. However, with the %R in overbought territory, there could be a risk of a short-term pullback or consolidation. Traders should be cautious around the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level and consider any potential retracements as opportunities to re-enter the bullish trend.


Disclaimer: This GBPCAD technical and fundamental analysis is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to conduct your own analysis and stay updated with the latest information before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
16.08.2024



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CADJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 19.08.2024


CADJPY_H4_Chart_Daily_Technical_and_Fundamental_Analysis_for_08.jpg


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:


The CAD/JPY fundamental analysis today is influenced by various macroeconomic factors and market sentiment. The Canadian Dollar is often correlated with oil prices, as Canada is a major oil exporter. Rising oil prices typically strengthen the CAD. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen, often seen as a safe-haven currency, is influenced by global risk sentiment and Japan’s economic indicators, such as machine orders and monetary policy. The upcoming release of Japan's machine orders data is crucial as it may affect the JPY by indicating the health of Japan’s manufacturing sector. A stronger-than-expected release could lead to a stronger Yen, putting pressure on the CAD/JPY forecast.


Price Action:

The CAD/JPY H4 chart shows that the pair has been in a consolidation phase after a previous downtrend. The price is currently moving within a channel, bounded by rising trendlines, suggesting a gradual upward movement. However, recent candles indicate a struggle to break above the immediate resistance, highlighting potential indecision in the market. The pair’s price action shows it has recently tested and held above a key support level, which could suggest a buildup for another upward push if it holds.


Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud:


The price is trading near the upper boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud, which acts as resistance. A break above this level could signal a potential bullish breakout, while failure to do so might lead to a retracement.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

The RSI is currently at 55.90, indicating that the pair is in neutral to slightly bullish territory. There’s still room for upward movement before the market reaches overbought conditions.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

The MACD line is slightly above the signal line, and the histogram is in positive territory, suggesting that the bullish momentum is still intact but not overwhelmingly strong.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:


The key support levels are at 107.495 and 107.010, with the latter being crucial as it aligns with the lower trendline of the channel.

Resistance Levels:

Immediate resistance is found at 108.052, followed by a stronger resistance at 108.749. A break above these levels could lead to further gains toward 109.500.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The CAD/JPY technical analysis today on the pair’s H4 chart depicts a consolidation phase with the potential for an upward breakout if it can sustain above the current resistance levels. Traders should monitor the RSI for signs of overbought conditions and the MACD for any changes in momentum. Given the upcoming machine orders data from Japan, there may be increased volatility in the pair. Conservative traders might wait for a clear breakout from the current range before entering new positions. It’s also advisable to implement risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders, especially given the pair's proximity to key resistance levels.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
19.08.2024


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EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 21.08.2024



EURUSDmH4.jpg



Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD pair, reflecting the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar, is currently influenced by recent economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the United States. In the Eurozone, the latest PMI readings suggest a mixed economic outlook. The French Manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 44.4 from 44.0, indicating a marginal recovery, although the sector remains in contraction. The French Services PMI edged up to 50.2 from 50.1, pointing to stability in the services sector. Similarly, Germany’s Manufacturing PMI, while still weak at 43.4, showed a minor improvement from 43.2, whereas the Services PMI dipped slightly to 52.3 from 52.5, reflecting a slight slowdown. Meanwhile, in the United States, a significant drawdown in Crude Oil Inventories by -2.0M barrels, against expectations of a 1.4M increase, could signal potential supply constraints, influencing inflation expectations. Additionally, the upcoming FOMC Meeting Minutes will be crucial, as they are likely to offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on future interest rates, a key driver of the USD's strength or weakness. These mixed economic signals suggest a cautious outlook for the EUR/USD pair, with the potential for heightened volatility depending on further developments in economic data and central bank policies.



Price Action:

On the H4 timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has experienced a robust bullish wave, propelling the price towards a significant resistance level. The recent price action has shown the formation of candlestick patterns at this resistance, indicating that the bullish momentum may be losing strength. This setup raises the possibility of a bearish correction, particularly as the price approaches this critical resistance. The technical indicators also reinforce this outlook. The MACD indicator is displaying signs of negative divergence, with the MACD line remaining below the signal line despite recent price highs, suggesting that the bullish momentum could be weakening. Similarly, the Williams %R is signaling overbought conditions, hovering near the -10 level, which typically precedes a market pullback.


Key Technical Indicators:

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD indicator is showing signs of a negative divergence, where the MACD line remains below the signal line despite the recent price highs. This divergence could indicate weakening bullish momentum and the potential for a bearish correction.

Williams %R (Percent Range): The Williams %R is also indicating overbought conditions, hovering near the -10 level, suggesting that the market might be due for a pullback.

Support and Resistance:

Support
: Potential support levels to watch for a bearish correction include the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0975, the 50% retracement at 1.0901, and the 38.2% retracement at 1.0831.

Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.1187, which corresponds with the current high and the 100% Fibonacci extension level.



Conclusion and Consideration:


The EUR/USD pair on the H4 chart is at a critical juncture, with potential for a bearish correction after a significant bullish wave. The negative divergence in the MACD and the overbought signal from the Williams %R suggest that a pullback could be imminent. Traders should consider short positions if the price action confirms a reversal at the current resistance level, targeting the key Fibonacci retracement levels as potential profit zones.


Disclaimer: The EURUSD provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information. Always consider risk management strategies and consult with a financial advisor if necessary.


FXGlory
21.08.2024



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