# Forex daily News FBS

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Currency
Rates
EUR / USD
1.17892
USD / JPY
106.821
GBP / USD
1.30242
USD / CHF
0.91205
1.32504
EUR / JPY
125.933
AUD / USD
0.71639

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5 important events this week will bring us

More at: http://bit.ly/2rA0FQi

11.11.2019

British preliminary yearly GDP growth rate (Mon, 11:30 MT time (09:30 GMT)) – according to forecasts, the yearly GDP growth rate will be at 1.1% against the higher 1.3% previous mark. The GBP price shall not change much unless the release is higher than the expectation.

New Zealand’s interest rate statement (Wed, 06:00 MT time (04:00 GMT)) – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may lower the interest rate to 0.75% on Wednesday form the current 1% if they decide that the economy needs monetary stimulus. If the rate stays at 1%, the NZD shall rise.

American Consumer Price Index (Wed, 18:30 MT time (16:30 GMT)) – The analysts anticipate the coming consumer price marks to be at 0.3% for the monthly CPI and 0.2% for the core monthly CPI. If the indicators are higher than the forecast, the USD shall gain strength.

Australian jobs data (Thu, 05:30 MT time (03:30 GMT)) – The forecasted employment change is 16.2K against the previous 14.7K, while the unemployment is expected to stay unchanged at 5.2% in Australia. If the readings are better than the forecast, the AUD will rise.

The quarterly European GDP growth rate (Thu, 12:00 MT time (10:00 GMT)) – The quarterly GDP growth rate is expected to stay unchanged at 0.2%. The price of the euro shall not be affected unless the release is different from the forecast.

Hot news:

During the weekend the US president Trump made another worrying statement advising that China may be interested in the trade deal more than he is; on Tuesday he shall give another speech to clarify the US-China trade war positioning

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Market updates on November 12

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/371kJeK

12.11.2019

British Claimant Count Change – 11:30 MT time (09:30 GMT)

European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index – 12:00 MT time (10:00 GMT)

On Monday, GBPUSD rose to the resistance of 1.2873. Today, it has continued rising after a short correction. On the H4 chart of GBP/USD, the bulls may locate their additional resistance levels at 1.2873 and 1.2890 for the upward direction. The downward trend will have the possible support levels at 1.2806, 1.2790 and 1.2770.GBPUSDH4 November 12.png

The euro has also started the day rising against the USD. On the H1 chart of EUR/USD, the resistance level of 1.1038 is its closest mark for the bullish scenario. Otherwise, the support levels may be placed at 1.1027, 1.1025 and 1.1016.

The Australian dollar shows a very similar scenario in relation to the USD today. On the H1 chart of AUD/USD, after slumping down to 0.6837 it has risen back to the level of 0.6853. If it keeps the same upward direction, the bulls may locate their resistance levels in the range of 0.6857 – 0.6861. Otherwise, for the market reversal scenario, the support levels may be placed at 0.6848, 0.6845 and 0.6837.

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Oil market updates on November 14

More at: http://bit.ly/2CJ4WDd

14.11.2019

Today, the oil prices may move on the release of crude oil inventories at 18:00 MT time. The analysts forecast the number of barrels held in the inventories of the American commercial firms to advance by 1.5 million.

If the actual number of barrels is higher than the expectations, the WTI and Brent prices will go down;

On the other hand, lower-than-expected figures will push the prices for crude higher.

What is the situation in the market right now?

The price for Brent is having a bullish session. On H4, it has been testing the highs above the resistance at $63.03. If the price is supported by the lower-than-expected release, the break of this level will happen. After that, bulls will focus on reaching the next target at$63.40. The next resistance will lie at $63.90. On the other hand, a higher-than-expected number of barrels will pull the price for Brent below the$62.53 level. The next support will be placed at $62. As for WTI, its price has been testing the resistance at$57.7 on H4 since the start of the trading day. The breakout of this level will help bulls to push the price for crude upwards to the $58.08 level. As far as this level will be reached, bulls will try to reach the next one at$58.6. From the downside, it is recommended to keep an eye on the $57.3 level. The great increase in the number of barrels may help bears to overcome that level and focus on reaching the support at$56.8 (50-period SMA).

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Market updates on November 15

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2CR9YgQ

15.11.2019

US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

During the Asian trading session, the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow announced the positive progress in phase one trade deal with China. It increased the risk-on sentiment in the market.

USD/JPY took advantage of the news and has risen higher. The pair has tested the 108.6 level on H4. If bulls manage to break this level, the next resistance will lie at 108.7. After that, reaching the 108.78 level (100-period SMA) will be possible. From the downside, bears will be looking for a breakout of the 108.51 level. If it happens, the chance of falling towards the 108.42 level will increase. The next support will lie at 108.28.

The price of gold has bounced from the 50-period SMA on H4 and moved lower. Since the beginning of the trading session, it has slid towards the support at $1,461. If this level is broken, the next support will be placed at$1,457.6. From the upside, if gold’s price rises above the $1,466, the next key level will lie at$1,471 (50-period SMA).

EUR/USD is awaiting the release of indicators of US headline and core retail sales. According to the forecasts, the former indicator will advance by 0.1%, while the latter is expected to increase by 0.3%. If the actual figures outperform the forecasts, the euro will fall below the 1.1015 level on H4 and will likely test the support at 1.1003. On the other hand, if the figures disappoint, the breakout of the current resistance at 1.1025 will occur and may drive EUR/USD up to the 1.1034 level.

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The United States will release the headline and core retail sales at 15:30 MT on November 15.

Check at: http://bit.ly/2NONXWp

The indicators represent the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The difference of the core indicator from the headline one is that the former excludes automobile sales due to their high volatility. Last time both of the indicators came out lower than the forecasts. While advance retail sales dropped by 0.3% (vs. the anticipated increase by 0.3%), the retail sales without autos fell by 0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected). The disappointing figures pulled the USD lower. Let’s see how the release affects the USD this time.

• If the indicators are greater than the forecasts, the USD will rise;

• If the indicators are weaker than the forecasts, the USD will fall

#### SebsCubs

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5 important events this week will bring us!

More at: http://bit.ly/2D7sGkR

18.11.2019

Monetary policy meeting minutes by the RBA (Tue, 02:30 MT time (00:30 GMT)) – If the RBA is positive concerning the current economic outlook, the AUD will rise.

Canadian CPI growth (Wed, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the inflation rate will advance by 1.9%. Higher-than-expected figures will boost the Canadian dollar.

FOMC meeting minutes (Wed, 21:00 MT time (19:00 GMT)) – If the release contains more hints concerning the future easing, the USD will fall.

ECB monetary policy meeting accounts (Thu, 14:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)) – If the European central bank is hawkish in its report, the EUR will be supported.

Canadian core retail sales (Fri, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – Analysts expect the indicator to remain at the same level. If the actual level is higher, the Canadian dollar will go up.

Hot news:

The British pound has risen on the news that the Brexit party has stood down from the 43 additional seats in the Parliament. Previously, it rejected to contest the seats which belong to the Conservative party.

According to the comments by the ECB vice president Luis de Guindos, the recession in the Eurozone seems to be an unlikely event.

The American and Chinese trade negotiators held constructive discussions on Saturday to reach the phase one trade deal. It resulted in the risk-on sentiment in the markets.

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Market updates on November 19

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2D7sGkR

19.11.2019

Speech by the FOMC member John Williams – 16:00 MT time (14:00 GMT)

During the Asian trading session, the Reserve bank of Australia released the monetary policy meeting minutes. The record had a dovish tone. The regulator is ready for further easing if needed. The report pulled the aussie down to the support at 0.6784 on H4. The further focus for the pair will be on the updates on the US-China trade deal. On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD has bounced off the 0.6784 level and has risen towards the 0.6810 resistance level. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 0.6819. If the aussie weakens, we expect the retest of the 0.6784 level. The next support will lie at 0.6776.

According to the anonymous source, China is still unhappy with the progress over the trade deal with the US. We will continue to follow the situation to determine the moves of USD/JPY. At the moment of writing the pair has been testing the 100-period SMA on H4 at 108.78. The breakout of this level will increase the chance of a retest of the 108.86 handle. If the risk sentiment is on, the pair will rise above the 50-period SMA to the 108.98 level. The downward momentum will be limited by the 108.59 level. Further support levels will lie at 108.51 and 108.42.

EUR/USD has been trading between the 100-period and 200-period SMA on H4. If the USD gets stronger, the 1.1063 level will be broken and the next support will lie at 1.1054. From the upside, the breakout of the 1.1083 level will push bulls further to the 1.1091 level.

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Market updates on November 20

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2qAxsV0

20.11.2019

Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y – 03:30 MT time (01:30 GMT)

Canadian Inflation Rate YoY – 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)

American FOMC Minutes – 21:00 MT time (19:00)

The US dollar has been rising against the Chinese yuan since Monday and seems to continue the same direction today. On the H1 chart of USDCNH, the 50-period Moving Average crossed the 100-period bottom-up yesterday, and the Parabolic SAR confirms the current uptrend. The resistance levels of 7.0360 and 7.0512 will be checking this scenario. However, the Chinese officials are reported to have expressed today once again their discontent with the US meddling into the Hong-Kong affairs. This should create additional volatility and pressure down on the USDCNH in the context of endless obstacles in reaching a trade truce between the US and China. For the bearish direction, the support levels of 7.0320, 7.0230 and 7.0150 may be placed.

The CAD started the day with the correction course. On the H1 chart of CADJPY, it has dropped to the support level of 81.64, which was touched last Thursday. After that, the price showed a slight upswing. At the same time, the RSI crossed the 30% level bottom-up. This may be a good signal of the bullish takeover. For the upward direction, the resistance levels may be placed at 81.83 and the range of 82.40-82.50. The downtrend scenario may have 81.64 and 81.50 as the support levels.

Against the Swiss franc, the US dollar has started weakening on Tuesday. On the H1 chart of USDCHF, the price touched the 0.9918 high, marking the local resistance level, and has been dropping since then. The bears need to watch the MACD and Awesome Oscillator crossing the zero line. Once it is done, the USD will likely aim at the support levels of 0.9895 and 0.9877.

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Market updates on November 21

More at: http://bit.ly/35n1R85

21.11.2019

ECB monetary policy meeting accounts – 14:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

Flash consumer confidence for the Eurozone – 17:00 MT time (15:00 GMT)

EUR/USD has been targeting the 1.1090 level on H4. If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 1.1103. From the downside, if the pair falls below the 100-period SMA at 1.1072, the next support level will lie at 1.1063. After that the pair will fall as far as the 1.1056 level will be reached. RSI oscillator is about to enter the overbought zone. If it leaves this zone, it may provide us a selling opportunity.

USD/JPY is having a volatile session. During the Asian trading session, the pair has fallen towards the 108.28 level but managed to recover towards the 108.6 level. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 108.7. From the downside, if the Japanese yen strengthens, the pair will slide towards the 108.46 level. The next support will be placed at 108.36.

USD/CNH has been declining towards the ascending trend line on H4. If the risk sentiment in the market increases, the pair will fall to the 7.0314 level. The next support will be placed at 7.0230. From the upside, if the pair retests the 7.0436 level, the next resistance will lie at 7.0525.

#### SebsCubs

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Market updates on November 22

More at: http://bit.ly/33fF1xK

22.11.2019