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SebsCubs

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Market updates on October 18

More at: http://bit.ly/33RFl6P

18.10.2019

EU economic summit – all day

Speech by the FOMC member Clarida – 18:30 MT (15:30 GMT)

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 20:45 MT (17:45 GMT)

Brexit news continues to move the market ahead of the significant vote on Saturday. The GBP/USD pair has been trading between the support at 1.2838 and the resistance at 1.2890. If the resistance at 1.2890 is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 1.2920. After that, the retest of the levels close to 1.2970 seems possible. From the downside, the breakout of the 1.2838 level may lead bears to move towards 1.2749.

After the test of the 108.92 level, USD/JPY slid lower to the 108.46 support level. If it is broken, bears may take over the market and pull the pair lower to 108.16. The next support will be placed at 107.79. In case of an alternative scenario, the pair may break the 108.92 level and rise above the 200-period SMA to the next resistance level at 109.45. If we look at oscillators, we can see that RSI is moving close to the overbought zone.

Yesterday’s negotiations between the US and Turkey were productive as the countries agreed to a ceasefire in Syria. As a result, USD/TRY dropped heavily below the 50- and 100-period SMAs on H4. Bears are trying to reach the 5.7537 level. The next support will be placed at 5.7288. In case of a reversal, the first resistance to watch will be placed at 5.7990. After that, reaching the 5.8144 level will be desirable by bulls.

 
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SebsCubs

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Important events this week will bring us

More at: http://bit.ly/33RKDz2

21.10.2019

Canada’s core retail sales (Tue, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 0.1%. If the actual level is higher, the CAD will rise.

French flash services PMI, German flash manufacturing PMI and German flash services PMI (Thu, 10:15-10:30 MT (7:15-7:30 GMT)) – Higher-than-expected figures will be positive for the euro.

A monetary policy statement by the European Central bank and press conference (Thu, 14:45 and 15:30 MT (11:30 and 12:30 GMT)) – The changes to the interest rate are not expected, but we need to pay attention to the tone of the statement and the comments by the ECB president during press conference.

US core durable goods orders (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Analysts forecast a decline of 0.2%. If the actual figures outperform the forecasts, the USD will be supported.

Hot news:

During the weekend, the UK Parliament made a vote, which forced the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to write to the EU asking for a three-month extension. Today, Boris Johnson will try again to put his deal to a vote in the House of Commons. At first, it is highly recommended to pay attention to the statement by the speaker John Bercow at 17:30 MT time, where he may announce the decision concerning the meaningful vote.

Monday is an election day in Canada. Some of the analysts suggest that the Conservative party in the government will be better for the loonie than the current Labour one. The competition is going to be a tight one.

 

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Market updates on October 22

More at: http://bit.ly/2N1rW5b

22.10.2019

Key events ahead:

Canada’s core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

BOC business outlook survey – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT)

Parliament Brexit Vote – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT)

Yesterday, the speaker John Bercow rejected the possibility of a significant vote. The news pulled the GBP down a little bit. Will the vote happen today? If it is, GBP/USD may retest the resistance at 1.2985. The next resistance will lie at 1.3011. After that, the 1.3059 level will be in bulls' focus. In case of a vote's delay, the pair will slide below the lower border of the ascending trading channel and target the support at 1.29. After that, the 1.2864 level will be in the focus of bears. The next support level will be placed at 1.2834.

USD/CAD formed a Doji candlestick on the 4-hour chart and bounced towards the resistance level at 1.3088. Today, the CAD traders may take advantage of the release of Canada’s core retail sales at 15:30 MT. According to the forecasts, the indicator will remain unchanged. If the actual level is higher, USD/CAD will slide below the 1.3077 level and move down to the next support at 1.3066. After that, reaching the 1.3052 level seems possible. From the upside, the key levels to watch are 1.3088, 1.3098 and 1.3128. RSI is moving within an oversold zone.

Yesterday, USD/JPY fell lower and tested the support at 108.36. If the risk sentiment is off, the further support levels will lie at 108.13 and 107.91. On the other hand, the pair may rise to the resistance level at 108.73. If it is broken, it is recommended to pay attention to the 108.9 and 109.42 levels.

 

SebsCubs

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Oil market updates on October 23

More at: http://bit.ly/2BA5lHt

23.10.2019

Crude oil inventories – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT)

According to yesterday’s news OPEC is considering further production cuts. The next meeting of oil-producing countries is scheduled for December 5-6. The announcement pushed the oil prices up. The move to the downside came after the release of private oil data. According to it, the number of barrels advanced by 4.45 million (vs. the 2.75 million expected). Today, we will be awaiting the publication of crude oil inventories by the EIA at 17:30 MT. According to forecasts, the number of barrels is expected to increase by 2.5 million. In case of lower figures, the oil prices will go up.

WTI has tested the $54.60 resistance level but slid down towards the support at $54. If the number of barrels is lower than the forecasts, this level will be broken. The next support will be placed at $53.4 (100-period SMA). After that, the further support level will lie at $52.8. In case of a higher-than-expected number of barrels, the pair will break the $54.6 level. The next resistance will lie at $54.93.

The price of Brent followed a similar scenario. It has tested the $60.25 resistance level but fallen to the support at $59.33 (50-period SMA). At the moment, the further key levels from the downside lie at $58.9 (100-period SMA) and $58.57. From the upside, the first resistance is placed at $59.65. After that, you need to pay attention to the $59.97 level. If they are broken, the retest of the $60.25 level will be possible.

Notice, that you need to choose BRN- and WTI- futures to trade oil in Metatrader 4.

 

SebsCubs

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Market updates on October 28

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/32VK8UG

28.10.2019

EUR/USD has been making confident steps towards the 1.1106 level on the 4-hour chart. If bears take over the market, the may pull the pair below the 1.1090 level. This scenario will increase the chances of a retest of the 1.1072 support level from October 25. In this case, the downward movement, which is confirmed by Parabolic SAR, may be resumed.

The news that Brexit would be delayed until January 31, 2020 did not stop the consolidation of GBP/USD on the H4. The upper border of the range is placed at 1.2860. After that, further upside momentum may be limited by the 1.2876 level (50-period SMA). On the chart, you can see that this level lies close to the upper border of the short-term descending channel. As far as buyers overcome this border, the retest of tops from October 24th at 2.2927 seems likely. Bears will be eyeing the support at the lower border of the consolidation range (1.2807). The next key level for them will be placed at 1.2785.

The gold is also trading sideways between the $1,506 and $1,503 levels. The breakout to the upside may lead bulls to move towards the $1,509 boundary. On the contrary, the consolidation period may be over with bears crossing the $1,503 level. In this case, the chances of reaching $1,500 are high.

 

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Market updates on October 29

More at: http://bit.ly/36egJab

29.10.2019

On the H4 of EUR/GBP, we see that the price is testing the psychological level of 0.8612. The pair is consolidating, thus, the further direction will depend on the strength of the euro. If the pair falls below 0.8612, it will slide towards 0.8590. In the case of the reversal, the resistance is placed in the range of 0.8649-0.8663.


On the H4 of EUR/USD, we see a similar picture, indicating a bearish movement. The price may test the support range 1.1073-1.1061, 1.1038. If the pair sticks above 1.1085, we may see a rise to 1.1105.


Gold is on the sideways movement, indicating a potential for a rise. On the H1 chart of XAU/USD, it has already broken yesterdays’ resistance and is gradually climbing up towards the resistance levels at 1495.47, 1506.00 and 1514.47. For the market reversion, support levels may be set at 1488.83, 1484.14 and 1480.35.

 

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USD/CAD has risen by more than 60 pips

More at: http://bit.ly/36egJab

30.10.2019

The Canadian dollar weakened significantly after the monetary policy decision by the Bank of Canada. Bulls broke the resistance at 1.3144 on H4 and pushed the price above it towards the 100-period SMA and the 1.3174 level. From the downside, the key levels in bears’ focus will be at 1.3077, 1.3067 and 1.3054.

 

SebsCubs

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Market updates on October 31

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2qdHXND

31.10.2019

European Quarterly GDP Growth Rate – 12:00 MT (10:00 GMT)

American Monthly Personal Income and Personal Spending Index – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

The US Fed announced the interest rate cut to 1.75% on October 30. EUR/USD reacted by rising. On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the day has started with the price inching into the resistance range of 1.1167 – 1.1177 and possibly aiming at another 3-months resistance level of 1.1217. The support levels of 1.1101 and 1.1076 remain valid unless a strong bearish movement appears on the chart.

While the Bank of Canada released the unchanged interest rate of 1.75% against the lowered rate of US Fed on October 30, the USD/CAD performed a sharp rise during the announcement. That was due to the negative tone the officials expressed in regards to the likely contractions within the investments, exports, employment growth and global economy slowdown pushing the Bank of Canada to implement monetary ease in the coming future. On the H1 chart of USD/CAD, the price bounced back from the newly formed local resistance level of 1.3180, testing the support level of 1.3152. If it is broken, we will have a range of 1.3120 – 1.3131, 1.3078 and 1.3049 as the support levels. Otherwise, the additional resistance level may be placed at 1.3208.

On the H4 chart of USD/JPY, the quote has dropped to the support level of 108.65. That was due to the unchanged Japanese interest rate (set at -0.1% as per October 31 release) against the lowered US Fed rate, which led to relative depreciation of the US dollar. However, the likelihood of the monetary ease in the future on behalf of the Bank of Japan keeps the Japanese yen dropping slowly, viewing the resistance levels of 108.99 and 109.254. The support level of 108.55 and the range of 108.34 – 108.41 remains valid.

 

SebsCubs

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Market updates: NFP edition

More at: http://bit.ly/2NDeUv2

01.11.2019


Key events ahead

Average hourly earnings – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Non-farm employment change – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Unemployment rate – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

The main focus for today will be on the American jobs data at 14:30 MT. According to the forecasts, the level of non-farm payrolls will advance by 89 thousand. At the same time, average hourly earnings will show an increase of 0.3% and the unemployment rate will rise to 3.6%. If the actual levels of NFP and average hourly earnings are higher, and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will strengthen. Let’s consider the most important pairs ahead of the event.

Bulls of EUR/USD have not overcome the 1.1166 resistance level on H4 after the Fed rate cut on Wednesday. If the level is broken right after the release, reaching the next resistance at 1.1180 may be possible. The further upside momentum will be limited by the 1.1194 level. On the other hand, if the actual figures come out optimistic for the USD, EUR/USD will reverse towards 1.1131. After the breakout, bears need to focus on the 1.1121 level. The break of that level will be placed at 1.1106.

USD/JPY has stuck below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart after yesterday’s plunge. The USD needs to be boosted by the positive NFP figures to break the current resistance at 108.53 and move upwards to the 108.15, 108.24 and 108.41 levels. From the downside, the breakout of the 107.93 level will open the way for bears towards the 107.8 level. The next support will lie at 107.65. RSI oscillator is oversold, that is why the continuation of the downside momentum may be expected.

An upside momentum for the price of gold is the result of the mixed news concerning US-China trade truce and the weak USD. Currently, the price of the yellow metal is overbought on H4 according to RSI and testing the $1,514 resistance level. If the USD weakens on the job data, the breakout of that resistance will be inevitable. That kind of scenario may lead to the retest of the $1,518 level (high of October 25th). The next key level will be situated at $1,524. On the contrary, the first support will be placed at $1,509.2. The next one will lie at $1,504.

 

SebsCubs

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5 important events this week will bring us

More at: http://bit.ly/36zfkLm

04.11.2019

RBA rate statement (Tue, 5:30 MT (3:30 GMT)) – According to forecasts, the interest rate will remain steady at 0.75%. We will keep an eye on the monetary policy statement, where the regulator may throw some hints on the possible changes to the monetary policy.

Canada’s trade balance (Tue, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – If the actual level of indicator is higher than the forecasts, the CAD will go up.

New Zealand’s employment change and unemployment rate (Tue, 23:45 MT (21:45 GMT)) – Analysts anticipate the employment change to increase by 0.2%. At the same time, the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 4.1%. Higher-than-expected figures of employment change and lower level of the unemployment rate will be NZD-positive.

BOE monetary policy summary (Thu, 14:00 MT (12:00 GMT)) – The interest rate is expected to stay at 0.75%. The possible move for the British pound may come with the release of the monetary policy statement. Any hawkish comments concerning the bank’s policy amid the Brexit mess will support the British pound.

Canada’s employment change and unemployment rate (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – If the actual level of employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the Canadian dollar will get positive momentum.

Hot news:

During the ASEAN summit this weekend, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expressed optimism that the US would reach a “phase one” trade deal with China this month and said licenses would be coming soon for American companies to sell components to Huawei Technologies Co. The news boosted the risk-on sentiment in the markets.

Christine Lagarde will make her first speech as a president of the European Central Bank this evening at 20:30 MT (18:30 GMT) time.

 
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