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Market updates on October 4: NFP edition

More at: http://bit.ly/2VhE4mp

04.10.2019

Key events ahead:

Non-farm employment change (non-farm payrolls) – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Average hourly earnings – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Unemployment change – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

The market is awaiting US employment data at 15:30 MT time. What are the forecasts? The level of average hourly earnings is forecast to increase by 0.3%, while non-farm payrolls are expected to advance by 130 thousand. At the same time, analysts anticipate the unemployment rate to remain at 3.7%. If the actual levels of average hourly earnings and NFP are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will appreciate against other currencies.

What are the key levels for the pairs ahead of the release?

EUR/USD has been consolidating near the 1.0979 level on H4. If the figures of today’s indicators are better than the expectations, the pair will slide downwards to the 1.0957 level. If bears are so excited by the release, they will break the support at 1.0957 and drag the pair below the 50-period SMA at 1.0947 and a lower border of the ascending channel. The next support will be placed at 1.0929-1.0936.

In case of a disappointing NFP release, bulls will be looking for a breakout of the 1.0979 level. Further upside momentum will be limited by the 1.0992 (100-period SMA) and 1.1 levels. If EUR/USD overcomes these levels, the pair will rise as far as the 1.1021 level will be reached.

GBP/USD may move on the NFP release, too. At the moment, it is consolidating between the resistance at 1.2354 and the support at 1.2324 on the 4-hour chart. If the USD is supported, bears will break the 1.2324 level and pull the cable towards the 1.2306 level (200-period SMA). Further key levels for bears will lie at 1.2273-1.2283. In case of an alternative scenario, GBP/USD will try to break the 1.2354 level. The next resistance level will lie at 1.2373. In case of a breakout, the pair will rise upwards to the 1.2419 level.

Will USD/JPY slide lower? It is the main question ahead of the NFP data. It is obvious, that disappointment in indicators will result in the selling action of the pair, which may pull it below the support at 106.72 to the next support level at 106.47 (look at H4). The next level will be placed below the descending trend line at 106.34. On the other hand, bulls will be waiting for a retest of the 106.95 level. The next resistance in their focus will be situated at 107.09 (200-period SMA)

 
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5 important events this week will bring us!

More at: http://bit.ly/2IyNncf

07.10.2019

FOMC meeting minutes (Wed, 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT)) – If the release contains any hawkish hints on the further Fed’s decisions, the USD will go up.

Speech by the Fed Chair Powell (Wed, 18:00 MT (15:00 GMT)) – If the Fed Chair provides hawkish comments, the USD will be supported.

British GDP and manufacturing production (Thu, 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, GDP growth is expected to remain at the same level, while the indicator of manufacturing production is forecast to increase by 0.1%. If the actual figures are higher, the British pound may get a positive momentum.

US CPI and core CPI (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – The indicator of a headline consumer inflation is anticipated to increase by 0.1%, while its core level (without food and energy prices) is going to increase by 0.2%, according to analysts. Higher-than-expected figures will be good for US dollar.

Canadian employment change and unemployment rate (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – If the actual level of employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the Canadian dollar will rise.

Hot news:

The British pound is awaiting the Brexit court ruling on legislation called “the Benn Act”. It requires the Government to either reach a deal or get Parliament’s approval for a no-deal Brexit by October 19.

The US-China trade talks are expected to continue on Thursday and Friday in Washington.

 

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GBP/USD slides below the 1.22 level as the UK-EU Brexit talks are about to break down

Check more: http://bit.ly/35pn5mA

08.10.2019

Different sources inform that during today's telephone call the German Chancellor Angela Merkel told to the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson that the deal could be reached only if Northern Ireland stays in the customs union. In response, the source has said that Mr. Johnson said that reaching a deal would be impossible.
GBP/USD has plunged below the 50-day SMA and tested the support at 1.2196. The next support levels will lie at 1.21-1.2138. From the upside, the rise will be limited by the 1.2294 level. The next resistance will be placed at 1.2355.


 

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Oil market updates on October 9

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2MtR9oH

09.10.2019

Crude oil inventories – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT) time

The oil prices slid lower after the private survey of crude oil inventories showed a larger-than-expected level. The number of barrels held in inventories increased by 4.13 million (vs. +1.7 million expected).

Today oil traders are awaiting the weekly release of US crude oil inventories by the Energy Information Administration. According to the forecasts, the number of barrels will advance by 1.8 million. If the actual level is lower, the oil prices will go up. Alternatively, if the number of barrels is higher than the forecasts, the prices for crude will fall down.

After the fall to the $51.9 level, the price for WTI managed to recover and tested the $53.3 level on the 4-hour chart. If the number of barrels is greater than the forecasts, bulls will break the $53.3 level and target the further levels above the 50-period SMA at $54 and $54.3. The next resistance lies at $54.67. On the other hand, if the number of barrels outperforms the forecasts, the price of WTI will fall below the $52.3 level and try to reach the $51.9 support level. After that, reaching the $51 support level seems possible.

The Brent’s price, in its turn, has tested the $58.8 level. From the upside, next resistance levels in bulls’ focus will lie at $59.3. After that the price will face the $59.65-$59.8 levels. If bulls overcome them, the resistance at $60 will be their target. Key levels from the downside are $57.9, $57.5 and $57.1.

Note, that you need to choose WTI and Brent futures in MT4 to start trading oil.

 

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Market updates on October 10

More at: http://bit.ly/2M4OanG

10.10.2019

Key events ahead:

US-China trade talks

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 12:20 MT (9:30 GMT)

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – 14:30 MT (11:30 GMT)

US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

The Asian trading session was highlighted by the mixed reports ahead of US-China trade talks. The news that the US administration will issue licenses, which will allow sales to Huawei and that a currency agreement between the counties may be reached, boosted the risk sentiment in the markets. Let’s see how the currency pairs reacted to this news and what levels we need to pay attention to.

EUR/USD bulls reacted optimistically to the news about the progress in US-China trade negotiations. The pair has broken the upper border of the long-term descending channel and risen to the 1.1023 level. If this level is broken, the pair will rise further to the 1.1037 level. The next key resistance level will be placed at 1.1055. If the risk sentiment fades away, EUR/USD will fall below the 200-period SMA towards the support at 1.0985. Bears may be looking for a breakout of this level and attempt to pull the pair lower to the 1.0967 level.

AUD/USD inched higher, too. Bulls have been trying to push the pair higher towards the 100-period SMA on H4, which lies close to the 0.6757 level. The next resistance level will lie at 0.6771. After the breakout, reaching the 0.6780 level may seem possible. In case of risk-off sentiment, the pair will reverse to the 50-period SMA near the 0.6734 level. If this level is broken, the next support will be placed at 0.6728. After that, it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 0.6709.

As the trading session will be driven by the updates from the US-China trade talks, we expect USD/JPY to move, too. In case of a risk-on sentiment, the pair will rise above the 107.59 level (100-period SMA) on H4. The further resistance levels will lie at 107.67 and 107.75. In case of negative news, it is recommended to look for a breakout of the support at 107.33 (50-period SMA). The next support will lie at 107.22 (200-period SMA). The breakout of this level will make the pair vulnerable to the fall to 107.03 (lower border of the ascending trading channel).


 

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Market updates on October 11

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2MdD8N2

11.10.2019

Key events ahead:

US-China trade talks

Meeting between the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and UK Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay - 10:00 MT (7:00 GMT) time

Canadian employment change and unemployment rate – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

EUR/USD has been consolidating above the 1.0994 level (200-period MA on the 4-hour chart). The next resistance, which bulls will try to reach, will be placed at 1.1023. The further rise may be restricted by the 1.1046 level. In case of an alternative scenario, when bears may try to break the 1.1005 level, they will pull the pair lower towards the support at 1.0994. After that, the next key support will lie at 1.0985.

The British pound has been moving up on positive news surrounding Brexit. Yesterday’s comments by the Irish Prime Minister expressed optimistic views on the outcome of the meeting with the UK PM Boris Johnson. Today the European Council president Donald Tusk said that the EU is awaiting a final proposal by the PM today ahead of the European summit next week. GBP/USD has surged above the long-term descending trendline and tested the highs above the 1.2520 level on H4. If the bullish mood in the market continues, there is a chance of the pair to reach the 1.2558 level. After that, the next key resistance will lie at 1.2577. From the downside, the levels are 1.2480, 1.2462 and 1.2435.

The Canadian dollar is awaiting Canada's jobs data. According to the forecasts, the employment change will advance by 11.2 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate will remain at the same level of 5.7%. If the actual figures are positive, USD/CAD will break the support at 1.3268 and pull the pair below the 200-period SMA to the 1.3259 level. The next support level will lie at 1.3253. If the pair reverses, it will retest the 1.3296 resistance level. Bulls will be looking for a breakout of this level to reach 1.3306.

 

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5 important events this week will bring us!

More at: http://bit.ly/31lh3jW

14.10.2019

Retail sales and core retail sales (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the headline indicator will increase by 0.3%. At the same time, its core level will advance by 0.2%. Higher-than-expected figures will bring positive momentum to the USD.

Canadian CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Analysts anticipate the consumer index for Canada to slide by 0.3%. If the actual figures are indeed negative, the CAD will fall. Otherwise, the CAD may be supported.

Australian employment change and unemployment rate (Thu, 3:30 MT (0:30 GMT)) – The indicator of employment change is expected to show an increase of 15.3 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.3%. If the actual level of employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the AUD will move higher.

European Brexit summit (Thu-Fri) – After the productive talks last week, where the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the Brexit deal was achieved, the EU negotiators said that the talks were not enough. The EU wants more concrete decisions on Brexit ahead of the EU Summit this Thursday. If the progress is made, we will follow the updates from the summit to look for the further movements of the GBP. In case of positive news and reaching of the agreement, the GBP will rise.

Chinese GDP (Fri, 5:00 MT (2:00 GMT)) – The Chinese yuan was supported last week after the progress in US-China trade negotiations made on Friday. Despite that, China required more talks before signing the “Phase One” trade deal, according to Monday’s news. It pulled the risk sentiment down. Besides the news on trade tensions, the risk sentiment may be affected by Chinese GDP growth on Friday. It will be interesting to look at the indicator amid the growing signs of the global slowdown. Higher-than-expected figures will push the risk sentiment up. Therefore, the risk-weighted currencies (AUD, NZD) will go up.

Hot news

This week is going to be busy with a lot of earnings reports. Later FBS analysts will present the analysis of the stocks you need to pay attention to this week.

Turkish lira continues to weaken as the US and Europe threatened the country to impose sanctions over the actions in Syria.

The new Trump’s tariffs on European imports are expected to be imposed on October 18. These goods will include German coffee, Scotch whiskey, British biscuits, Spanish olives, Italian cheeses, French wines and many more. It may affect the EUR.

 

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Market updates on October 15

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/31driqp

15.10.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Bostic – 16:00 MT (13:00 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member George – 19:45 MT (16:25 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Bullard – 22:25 MT (19:25 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Daly – 22:30 MT (19:30 GMT)

GBP/USD has retested its recent highs above the 1.27 level after the comments by the EU chief Brexit negotiator about the possibility of a Brexit deal this week. Today we anticipate the UK to suggest fresh Brexit proposals after the meeting between the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and DUP leader Arlene Foster. It’s highly recommended to follow the headlines, as the GBP gets volatile on the announcements. In case of positive news, the cable may inch higher to the 1.2684 resistance level. If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 1.2706. Further levels in bulls’ focus will lie at 1.2725 and 1.2741. Alternatively, bears will pull the GBP/USD pair lower to the support at 1.2630. The next support will be placed at 1.2576. If this level is broken, the chances of reaching the 1.2515 level will increase. Technically, RSI is moving within an overbought zone. If it leaves this zone, it may provide us a short-term selling opportunity.

EUR/USD is looking for further direction. The pair has been consolidating between 1.1034 and 1.1024 levels but has already tested the resistance level at 1.1045 and the support level at 1.1014. If bulls take over the market, the breakout of the 1.1034 level will happen and the next resistance will be placed at 1.1045. On the other hand, bears will be looking for a break of the 1.1024 to slide lower to the 1.1014 level.

The US threatened Turkey with tariffs on steel yesterday after the Turkish military actions in Syria. USD/TRY reached the resistance at 5.9202 but slid lower to the support at 5.8590. If bulls regain their positions, the pair will rise higher to the 5.9120 level and may retest the 5.9202 resistance level. The pair may rise as far as the 5.94 level will be reached. If a correction to the downside happens, the pair will fall lower to the 5.8590 level. The next support will be situated at 5.8396. MACD oscillator shows a bearish divergence with the price.

 

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The aussie may move on a jobs data

More at: http://bit.ly/2MJ1rkM

16.10.2019

Australia will publish the level of employment change and the unemployment rate at 3:30 MT on October 17.

The indicator of employment change shows the change in the number of employed people during the previous month. The unemployed rate, released at the same time as employment change, represents the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed. According to the forecast, employment change will advance by 15.3 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate will remain at the same level of 5.3%. How may the indicators move the AUD?

• If the employment change is higher, and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the AUD will rise;

• If the employment change is lower and the unemployment rate is higher than the forecasts, the AUD will fall.

 

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Market updates on October 17

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2VNEuRu

17.10.2019

Key events ahead

British retail sales - 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT)

EU Economic Summit – all day

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Speech by the RBA Governor Philip Lowe – 23:00 MT (20:00 GMT)

Yesterday’s reports that the Brexit deal was not reached ahead of the European summit scheduled for today pulled the British pound lower. GBP/USD slid to the support at 1.2745. If this level is broken, the next support will be placed at 1.2686. The next support levels will lie at 1.2662 and 1.2641. From the upside, the first key resistance will lie at 1.2877. After the breakout, reaching the 1.2920 and 1.2943 levels seem possible.

AUD/USD has risen on a lower-than-expected unemployment rate and the news that China is discussing the next phase of trade talks. The pair has crossed the 200-period SMA and moved higher to the 0.6804 level. If bulls overcome this level, the next resistance levels will be placed at 0.6810 and 0.6818. In case of a reversal, pay attention to the 0.6780 level. After that, reaching the support level at 0.6773 seems possible.

NZD/USD has been supported as the risk sentiment in the market gets better. The kiwi has tested the 200-period SMA. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 0.6330. After that, the next resistance will be situated at 0.6345. From the downside, bears will pay attention to 0.6288, 0.6277 and 0.6267.

 
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