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SebsCubs

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Market updates on September 20

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2kVhZfA

20.09.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the FOMC member Williams – 15:15 MT (12:15 GMT) time

Canadian core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Speech by the FOMC member Rosengren – 18:20 MT (15:20 GMT) time

US-China trade talks

The British pound was supported today after the interview given by the European president Jean Claude Juncker, where he said that the Brexit deal would happen. The cable spiked above the 1.25 level and has tested the resistance at 1.2557. If this level is broken, the next resistance levels will lie at 1.2577 and 1.2598. In case of any uncertainties, bears will be looking for the fall towards the support levels at 1.2506, 1.2476 and 1.2444. On H4, we can see a bearish divergence with MACD, which may signal about a possible short-term reversal

USD/CAD is awaiting the release of Canada’s core retail sales. On H4, the pair managed to stick above the 200-period SMA. At the moment of writing, USD/CAD has been moving upwards to the resistance at 1.3277. If the release disappoints the market, this level will be broken. The next resistance will be placed at 1.3289. In case of an alternative scenario, the pair will slide back below the 200-period SMA to the support at 1.3253. The next support will be placed at 1.3246 (100-period SMA).

EUR/USD is consolidating between the 1.1058 resistance level and the 1.1037 support level on H4. If bulls manage to break their way to the upside, the next resistance levels will lie at 1.1068-1.1074. On the other hand, bears will pay attention to the break of the 1.1037 level. After that, the next support will lie at 1.1014.

 
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5 important events this week will bring us!

More at: http://bit.ly/2mvysrk

23.09.2019

Speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi (Mon, 16:00 MT (13:00 GMT) time) – If the ECB president is hawkish, the EUR will be supported;

CB consumer confidence for the US (Tue, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time) – Higher-than-expected figures will push the USD up;

RBNZ rate statement (Wed, 5:00 MT (2:00 GMT) time) – Analysts anticipate the Reserve bank of New Zealand to keep its interest rate unchanged at 1%. Traders will pay attention to the outline of the statement. If the RBNZ is hawkish, the NZD will rise.

US final GDP (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – If the actual figures are higher than the forecasts, the USD will go up.

US core durable goods orders and personal spending (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – Higher-than-expected figures will boost the USD

Hot news

After the trade talks between the US and China last week, we heard some positive comments on that matter from both sides.

Oil prices jumped on the news that the reparation of the Saudi plant would likely take months.

The EU’s Donald Tusk will meet the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week. However, judging by the tone of the Prime Minister, he does not expect any breakthrough this week. Also this week the Supreme Court will rule on Boris Johnson’s suspension of Parliament. The uncertainties affect the GBP.

 

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Market updates on September 24

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2mqY5te

24.09.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the RBA governor Philip Lowe – 12:55 MT (8:55 GMT)

CB consumer confidence for the US – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT)

During the Asian trading session, the trading of AUD/USD was mixed. Bulls managed to push the pair higher towards the 0.6787 level. If the RBA governor shares some positive comments, the AUD may inch higher. If the 0.6787 level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 0.6795-0.6799 levels. After that, bulls need to focus on the 0.6804 level. From the downside, the first support for the pair will lie at 0.6773. If it is broken, the pair will be vulnerable to the fall to 0.6767 level. After that, reaching the support at 0.6759 seems possible.

EUR/USD has been trading with low volatility. We may expect CB consumer confidence to move the pair. According to the forecasts, the indicator will reach 134.1 points. If the actual level is higher, the support at 1.09816 will be broken. The next key support for the pair will be placed at 1.0956-1.0964. If the USD is weak, the breakout of the resistance level at 1.0997 will be in focus. After that, bulls will be targeting the 1.1024 level.

GBP/USD has spiked above the 1.2460 level on the news that the Supreme Court decided that the prorogation of the Parliament was unlawful. We will wait for further updates on that matter. The next resistance for the cable on H4 will lie at 1.24. From the downside, the support levels lie at 1.2414, 1.2391 and 1.2364.

 

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SebsCubs

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Market updates on September 26

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2lZH4q5

26.09.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi – 16:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 16:45 MT (13:45 GMT) time

Speech by the FOMC member Bullard – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time

Speech by the FOMC member Clarida – 18:45 MT (15:45 GMT) time

Rate decision by the Central bank of Mexico – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time

EUR/USD has been falling. The pair has tested the ground below the 1.0936 level. The next support for bears lies at 1.0925. After reaching it and breaking, the pair will fall until the lower border of the descending channel and the 1.0890 level will be reached. From the upside, the first resistance will be placed at 1.0964. The next level in focus will lie at 1.0994 (upper border of the descending channel). RSI is about to enter the oversold zone.

The cable bounced from the 100-period SMA at 1.2373 on H4 and started to fall. If it continues to slide, the support at 1.2314 will be targeted. Further key levels in bears' attention will be placed at 1.2281 and 1.2233. If the pair reverses, the retest of the 1.2373 level seems likely. The next resistance will be placed at 1.2437. If we look at oscillators, we can see that RSI is moving within the oversold zone. If it leaves this zone, it may provide a buying opportunity.

USD/MXN is consolidation on H4 ahead of the interest rate decision by the Central bank of Mexico at 21:00 MT. According to forecasts, the bank will cut its interest rate from 8% to 7.75%. The decision is priced in, that is why we may expect the USD/MXN pair to fall right after the announcement. After the recent gains, the pair has been trading above the 100-period SMA, close to the resistance at 19.5870. Further resistance levels will be situated at 19.6340 and 19.6734. If USD/MXN break the support at 19.5335, bears will pull it lower to the 19.4787 level. RSI is about to enter the overbought zone.

 

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Market updates on September 27

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2nXLu1h

27.09.2019

Key events ahead:

US core durable goods orders – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

US personal spending – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Quarles – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

At the moment of writing, EUR/USD has been trading near the resistance at 1.0921. If bulls manage to break this level or the anticipated releases for the USD disappoint the market, the next resistance level will be situated at 1.0937. After that, the possibility of reaching the 1.0964 level will increase. From the downside, the fall towards the 1.0890 level seems likely if the USD strengthens. The next key support will lie at 1.0854.

GBP/USD slid lower on the comment by the BOE member Saunders. He said that if the deal is not reached, the next move by the Bank of England may be a cut. The pair has tested the support zone at 1.2272-1.2281, where the 200-period SMA is moving. If the pair overcomes these levels, the next support will be placed at 1.2233. If the pair reverses, bulls will need to break the 1.2297 level to confirm their strength. The next resistance will lie at 1.2373. RSI is moving within the oversold zone.

Gold moved lower on the improved market sentiment. The price of the yellow metal has tested the support at $1,496. Further supports in bears' focus will lie at $1,490 and $1,486. In case of risk-off sentiment, the reversal towards the $1,507 level will be possible. The next resistance will be placed at $1,512.

 

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Market updates on September 30

Check out more: http://bit.ly/2ovuKyL

30.09.2019

During the Asian trading session, ANZ business confidence for New Zealand fell to the lowest levels since 2008. As a result, NZD/USD tested the lows below the 0.6254 level. If the 0.6254 level is broken, the next support will lie at 0.6235. Bulls will be looking for a short-term recovery towards the 0.6276 level. RSI will be especially helpful in this situation, as its line is moving close to the oversold zone. In case of a breakout of the 0.6276 resistance level, the next key level will be placed at 0.6297, close to the 50-period SMA.

The cable has been trading above the 200-period SMA on H4, as the GBP traders anticipate the Brexit updates. In case of the news about the extension of the Brexit deadline, bulls may break the 1.2329 level and push GBP/USD higher towards the 1.2363 level. If the pair weakens, we may see the slide below the 1.2281 level. The next support will be placed at 1.2233.

Gold has retested the lows of September 13 at $1,485. If it continues to weaken, it may provoke a further fall towards the $1,479.4 level. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance lines at $1,494 and $1,500. RSI has entered the oversold zone. If it leaves this zone, it may provide a buying opportunity.

 

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5 important events this week will bring us!

More at: http://bit.ly/2ntQuuT

01.10.2019


Canadian GDP (Tue, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – According to analysts, the indicator will advance by 0.1%. If the actual level is higher than the forecasts, the CAD will go up.

US ISM manufacturing PMI (Tue, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT)) – Analysts expect the level of PMI to reach 50.4 points. Higher figures will push the USD up.

Australian retail sales (Fri, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT)) – Analysts anticipate the level of retail sales to advance by 0.5%. Higher-than-expected figures will boost the US dollar.

Canadian trade balance (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – The difference in value between imported and exported goods are expected to remain at the same level of -1.1 billion dollars. If the actual level is higher, the CAD will be supported.

US jobs data (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – NFP is forecast to increase by 140 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate will likely remain at the same level and the level of average hourly earnings is forecast to decline by 0.3%. If NFP and average hourly earnings are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, it will make the USD rise.

 

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Market updates on October 2

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2oyNKwf

02.10.2019

Key events ahead:

Brexit press conference by British PM Johnson – 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT) time

US ADP non-farm employment change – 17:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time

Speech by the FOMC member Williams – 17:50 MT (13:50 GMT) time

EUR/USD has touched the resistance at 1.0940 and started to fall down on the risk-off sentiment. Bears have been targeting the support at 1.0908. If this level is broken, the next key level will lie at 1.0884. Bulls will be awaiting the release of ADP non-farm employment change at 17:30 MT time. According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 140 thousand jobs. If the actual level is lower than the forecasts, the USD will weaken. As a result, the pair will rise to the resistance at 1.0940. Next resistance levels will lie at 1.0958-1.0964 (close to the 50-period SMA).

GBP/USD is awaiting the press conference by the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on a new Brexit plan at 14:00 MT time. If it disappoints the market, the cable will slide towards the trend line of September 3. The 1.2210 level will be important for sellers. In case of a breakout, the support level at 1.2193 will be important. Strong bearish pressure may pull the pair even lower to the 1.2170 level. On the other hand, if the market likes the new plan by Mr. Johnson, the pair will stick above the 1.2233 level. The next key levels lie at 1.2252 and 1.2272.

USD/JPY bounced from the 100-period SMA and moved down towards the 107.62 level. The next support lies at 107.51. From the upside, the resistance levels lie at 107.79 and 107.89 levels.

 

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Market updates on October 3

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2LRM8Hh

03.10.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the British PM Boris Johnson – 13:30 MT (10:30 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Quarles – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

US ISM non-manufacturing PMI – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT)

EUR/USD stuck above the 50-period SMA on H4 yesterday and moved up towards the resistance level at 1.0974. If the US dollar continues to weaken, buyers of the euro will break this level and push the pair towards the next resistance at 1.0994 (100-period SMA). On the other hand, if the USD is supported by the release of non-manufacturing PMI, the pair will slide below the 1.0954 level. After that, bears of EUR/USD will be waiting for a retest of the 1.0928-1.0936 levels. Reaching the 1.0928 level will increase the chance of a test of the ascending channel's lower border. The breakout of that border will make the pair vulnerable to the fall towards 1.0908.

GBP/USD has been consolidating above the 200-period SMA on the mixed news about the new plan by the British PM Boris Johnson. Bulls are looking for a breakout of the 1.2317-1.23330 levels. Such a move will increase the possibility of reaching the resistance level at 1.2353. Downside movement will be limited by the 1.2272-1.2284 levels. Further support lies in the 1.2224-1.2234 area. The cable may get volatile on the speech by the British PM Boris Johnson at 13:30 MT.

Weak USD is positive for gold bulls. The price for the yellow metal has been testing the 1,504.8 resistance level. The next resistance will lie at $1,507.6. If this level is broken, bulls may push the higher to the $1,510.7 level. On the other hand, the breakout of the $1,497.4 level will make gold vulnerable to the fall towards the $1,493.6 level. The next support will lie at $1,489. Pay attention to RSI, as it is moving close to the overbought zone.

 
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