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oldtbone

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Asia Roundup:
Aussie eases on downbeat Chinese data, dollar gains as better-than-expected U.S. GDP cements smaller rate cut expectations, Asian shares plunge –
Monday, July 29th, 2019





Market Roundup

U.S.-China trade talks in focus

Oil falls after 'constructive' talks on Iran's nuclear deal

Gold gains as markets eye Fed meeting

Profits earned by China’s industrial firms contracted in June



Economic Data Ahead

(0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy Producer Price Index MoM June

(0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy Producer Price Index YoY June

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Net Lending to individuals MoM June

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Consumer Credit June

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Mortgage Approvals June



Key Events Ahead

No Significant Event Scheduled



FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index rallied as better-than-expected U.S. GDP data last week cemented expectations that the Fed will go for a smaller interest rate cut of 25 basis points, rather than 50 basis points. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.1 percent up at 98.02, having touched a high of 98.09 on Friday, its highest since May 31.

EUR/USD: The euro consolidated within narrow ranges near recent lows, after the European Central Bank signaled last week that it is likely to cut interest rates deeper into negative and adopt more easing measures in September to support the struggling euro zone economy. The European currency traded flat at 1.1127, having touched a low of 1.1101 on Thursday, its lowest since May 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on data out of Euro zone economies, ahead of the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1171 (23.6% retracement of 1.1281 and 1.1101), a break above targets 1.1213 (61.8% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1101 (July 25 Low), a break below could drag it below 1.1070.

USD/JPY: The dollar plunged after rising to an over 3-week peak in the previous session on data that showed U.S. gross domestic product increased at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, above forecast of 1.8 percent, cementing expectations that the Fed will go for a smaller interest rate cut of 25 basis points, rather than 50 basis points. The major was trading 0.05 percent down at 108.57, having hit a high of 108.82 on Friday, its highest since July 10. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. Immediate resistance is located at 108.96 (July 9 High), a break above targets 109.54 (Jan. 29 High). On the downside, support is seen at 108.20 (61.8% retracement of 107.21 and 108.82), a break below could take it lower at 108.01 (50% retracement).

GBP/USD: Sterling slumped, extending losses for the third straight session, after Britain's senior ministers stated the government is working on the assumption that the European Union will not renegotiate its Brexit deal and is ramping up preparations to leave the bloc on October 31 without an agreement. The major traded 0.1 percent down at 1.2365, having hit a low of 1.2361 earlier, it’s lowest since March 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on the development surrounding Brexit, ahead of the U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2412 (23.6% retracement of 1.2578 and 1.2361 ), a break above could take it near 1.2471 (50% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2340 (March 21, 2017, Low), a break below targets 1.2280 (March 1, 2017, Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.2 percent down 89.98 pence, having hit a high of 88.91 on Thursday, it’s highest since June 21.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar tumbled to an over 1-month low after data released on Saturday showed profits earned by China's industrial firms contracted in June after a brief gain the previous month. The Aussie trades down at 0.6907, having hit a low of 0.6902 earlier, it’s lowest since June 20. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic releases. Immediate support is seen at 0.6878 (June 20 Low), a break below targets 0.6831 (June 18 Low). On the upside, resistance is located at 0.6975 (5-DMA), a break above could take it near 0.7047 (July 4 High).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar declined to a near 3-week low, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to cut its rates to 1.25 percent in August, and to 1 percent by February next year. The Kiwi trades 0.05 percent down at 0.6629, having touched a low of 0.6626 earlier, its lowest level July 10. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6664 (23.6% retracement of 0.6790 and 0.6626), a break above could take it near 0.6708 (50% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 0.6602 (July 5 Low), a break below could drag it below 0.6565 (July 10 Low).



Equities Recap

Asian shares declined as investors turned cautious ahead of the U.S. and China trade negotiations in Shanghai this week, their first in-person talks since a G20 truce last month.

MSCI's broadest of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan plunged 0.4 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei declined 0.2 percent to 21,616.80 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.5 percent to 6,825.80 points and South Korea's KOSPI slumped 1.8 percent to 2,030.67 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded 1.4 percent lower at 27,983.76 points. Taiwan shares shed 0.1 percent to 10,885.73 points.

Shanghai Composite Index eased 0.1 percent to 2,941.44 points, while CSI 300 index traded 0.1 percent down at 3,855.84 points.



Commodities Recap

Crude Oil prices declined after Iran described emergency talks on a multi-party nuclear agreement with a group of signatories as constructive, indicating an easing of tensions in the Middle East. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.1 percent lower at $63.23 per barrel by 0456 GMT, having hit a high of $64.64 on Wednesday, its highest since July 17. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.1 percent down at $56.10 a barrel, after rising as high as $57.62 on Wednesday, its highest since the July 17.

Gold prices rose, extending previous session gains ahead of this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, which is expected to lead to a cut in U.S. interest rates. Spot gold was trading 0.1 percent up at $1,420.04 per ounce by 0459 GMT, having touched a low of $1,410.77 on Thursday, its lowest since July 17. U.S. gold futures gained 0.3 percent to $1,423.20 an ounce.









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oldtbone

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Asia Roundup:
Yen gains against dollar as BoJ stands pat, greenback at 2-month peak ahead of Fed policy outcome, Asian shares surge –
Tuesday, July 30th, 2019





Market Roundup

BOJ hints at more easing if inflation sputters

Pound pressured by fresh Brexit fears

Dollar hits 2-month high ahead of Fed policy meeting



Economic Data Ahead

(0300 ET/0700 GMT) Switzerland KOF leading indicator July

(0500 ET/0900 GMT) Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator July

(0800 ET/1200 GMT) German prelim consumer price index July



Key Events Ahead

No Significant Event Scheduled



FX Beat

DXY: The dollar rallied to a 2-month peak, as the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.00 percent – 2.25 percent on Wednesday after recent upbeat U.S. economic data pared expectations for aggressive rate cuts. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.1 percent up at 98.16, having touched a high of 98.21 earlier, its highest since May 30.

EUR/USD: The euro declined, reversing some of its previous session gains, amid growing concern that not all European Central Bank policymakers will agree on the timing of new stimulus. Moreover, uncertainty about a possible Italian snap general election continued to weigh on sentiment. The European currency traded 0.05 percent down at 1.1138, having touched a low of 1.1101 on Thursday, its lowest since May 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on Eurozone economic sentiment indicator and German consumer price index, ahead of the U.S. personal consumption expenditure- price index, consumer confidence and pending home sales. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1171 (23.6% retracement of 1.1281 and 1.1101), a break above targets 1.1213 (61.8% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1101 (July 25 Low), a break below could drag it below 1.1070.

USD/JPY: The dollar plunged from a 20-day peak, as investors turned cautious ahead of an expected 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, its first time in more than a decade this week amid growing global uncertainties and trade pressures. The Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1 percent and pledged to guide 10-year government bond yields around 0 percent but signalled its readiness to expand stimulus without hesitation if a global slowdown dented the country’s economic recovery. The major was trading 0.2 percent down at 108.62, having hit a high of 108.94 on Monday, its highest since July 10. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. personal consumption expenditure- price index, consumer confidence and pending home sales. Immediate resistance is located at 109.08 (Jan. 8 High), a break above targets 109.54 (Jan. 29 High). On the downside, support is seen at 108.28 (61.8% retracement of 107.21 and 108.94), a break below could take it lower at 108.08 (50% retracement).

GBP/USD: Sterling tumbled to a 28-month low below the 1.2200 handle as investors turned cautious amid growing risk of a no-deal Brexit and the chance that new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will call an early election. The major traded 0.7 percent down at 1.2130, having hit a low of 1.2118 earlier, it’s lowest since March 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on the development surrounding Brexit, ahead of the U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2273 (38.2% retracement of 1.2522 and 1.2118), a break above could take it near 1.2321 (50% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2108 (March 14, 2017, Low), a break below targets 1.2037 (Jan 11, 2017, Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.7 percent down at 91.80 pence, having hit a low of 91.90 earlier, it’s lowest since Sept 2017.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slumped, extending losses for the eighth straight session after U.S. President Donald Trump offered a pessimistic view of reaching a trade deal with China, saying Beijing may not sign one before the November 2020 U.S. presidential election. However, Beijing hopes Washington would stick to its commitment to create positive conditions for the trade talks this week. The Aussie trades 0.05 percent down at 0.6898, having hit a low of 0.6894 earlier, it’s lowest since June 20. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic releases. Immediate support is seen at 0.6878 (June 20 Low), a break below targets 0.6831 (June 18 Low). On the upside, resistance is located at 0.6937 (23.6% retracement of 0.7082 and 0.6894), a break above could take it near 0.6988 (50% retracement).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar consolidated near a 20-day low, as U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators meet in Shanghai this week for their first in-person talks since a G20 truce last month, but expectations are low for a breakthrough. The Kiwi trades 0.05 percent down at 0.6624, having touched a low of 0.6616 on Monday, its lowest level July 10. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6657 (23.6% retracement of 0.6790 and 0.6616), a break above could take it near 0.6703 (50% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 0.6602 (July 5 Low), a break below could drag it below 0.6565 (July



Equities Recap

Asian shares gained, as investors awaited an expected U.S. interest rate cut this week, while the pound plunged to a 28-month low amid heightened concerns about a no-deal Brexit.

MSCI's broadest of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.4 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei rallied 0.4 percent to 21,709.31 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3 percent to 6,845.10 points and South Korea's KOSPI gained 0.5 percent to 2,039.81 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded 0.3 percent higher at 28,186.07 points. Taiwan shares shed 0.5 percent to 10,830.90 points.

Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4 percent to 2,952.19 points, while CSI 300 index traded 0.5 percent up at 3,871.12 points.



Commodities Recap

Crude Oil prices surged, extending overnight gains amid widespread expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade this week. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.3 percent higher at $64.02 per barrel by 0447 GMT, having hit a high of $64.64 last week, its highest since July 17. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.2 percent up at $57.15 a barrel, after rising as high as $57.62 last week, its highest since the July 17.

Gold prices declined as the dollar held firm near multi-month highs, while investors awaited the outcome of a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates. Spot gold was trading 0.1 percent down to $1,425.14 per ounce by 0501 GMT, having touched a low of $1,410.77 on Thursday, its lowest since July 17. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2 percent to $1,422.50 an ounce.









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oldtbone

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Asia Roundup:
Aussie off 6-week low on better-than-expected inflation data, greenback consolidates near 2-month peak as investors await Fed decision, Asian shares at 6-week through –Wednesday, July 31st, 2019





Market Roundup

Gold subdued as investors focus on Fed decision

Oil gains after U.S. stockpile decline

Euro steadies around last week’s 26-month low vs dollar

Yen gains vs dollar after BoJ meeting

Australia dollar snaps losing streak on inflation data



Economic Data Ahead

(0355 ET/0755 GMT) German Unemployment rate s.a July

(0355 ET/0755 GMT) German Unemployment change July

(0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy's prelim consumer price index YoY July

(0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy's prelim consumer price index MoM July

(0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ prelim Gross Domestic Product s.a.. YoY Q2

(0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ prelim Gross Domestic Product s.a.. MoM Q2

(0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ unemployment rate June

(0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ prelim consumer price index YoY July

(0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ prelim consumer price index- Core YoY July



Key Events Ahead

No Significant Event Scheduled



FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index slightly eased after rising to a 2-month peak in the previous session as investors awaited to see whether the Federal Reserve would signal the start of an interest rate-cutting cycle. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.05 percent down at 98.02, having touched a high of 98.21 on Tuesday, its highest since May 30.

EUR/USD: The euro consolidated near a 5-day peak, as investors remained cautious amid expectations that the European Central Bank may turn out to be more aggressive than the Fed in easing monetary policy. The European currency traded 0.05 percent down at 1.1156, having touched a low of 1.1101 on Thursday, its lowest since May 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on Eurozone economic sentiment indicator and German unemployment rate, and Eurozone prelim gross domestic product and unemployment, ahead of the U.S. ADP employment change and Fed interest rate decision. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1171 (23.6% retracement of 1.1281 and 1.1101), a break above targets 1.1213 (61.8% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1101 (July 25 Low), a break below could drag it below 1.1070.

USD/JPY: The dollar plunged, extending previous session losses, as investors are convinced the Federal Reserve will cut the key benchmark rate by 25 basis points to between 2 percent and 2.25 percent later in the day. The major was trading 0.05 percent down at 108.54, having hit a high of 108.94 on Tuesday, its highest since July 10. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. ADP employment change and Fed interest rate decision. Immediate resistance is located at 109.08 (Jan. 8 High), a break above targets 109.54 (Jan. 29 High). On the downside, support is seen at 108.28 (61.8% retracement of 107.21 and 108.94), a break below could take it lower at 108.08 (50% retracement).

GBP/USD: Sterling steadied, halting a 3-day losing streak ahead of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Northern Ireland visit. On Tuesday, PM Boris promised to lead Britain out of the European Union on October 31 no matter what, as Ireland warned that the EU bloc would not be renegotiating the thrice defeated deal. The major traded 0.1 percent up at 1.2161, having hit a low of 1.2118 on Tuesday, it’s lowest since March 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on the development surrounding Brexit, ahead of the U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2274 (38.2% retracement of 1.2522 and 1.2118), a break above could take it near 1.2322 (50% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2108 (March 14, 2017, Low), a break below targets 1.2037 (Jan 11, 2017, Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.1 percent up at 91.72 pence, having hit a low of 91.90 on Tuesday, it’s lowest since Sept 2017.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rebounded after falling to a 6- week low after domestic data showed consumer prices rose 1.6 percent in the year to June, a fraction above forecasts. Earlier in the day, the major plunged as underlying inflation remained low at 1.5 percent and well short of the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2-3 percent, cementing the case for recent cuts in interest rates. The Aussie trades 0.3 percent up at 0.6893, having hit a low of 0.6862 earlier, it’s lowest since June 19. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic releases. Immediate support is seen at 0.6855 (June 19 Low), a break below targets 0.6831 (June 18 Low). On the upside, resistance is located at 0.6914 (23.6% retracement of 0.7082 and 0.6862), a break above could take it near 0.6972 (50% retracement).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar plunged to a 21-day low, amid reinforced expectations the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would cut rates by a quarter-point to 1.25 percent at its policy meeting on Aug. 7, and likely move again by December. The Kiwi trades 0.2 percent down at 0.6599, having touched a low of 0.6586 earlier, its lowest level July 10. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6636 (23.6% retracement of 0.6790 and 0.6586), a break above could take it near 0.6713 (61.8% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 0.6565 (July 10 Low), a break below could drag it below 0.6513 (July 19 Low).




Equities Recap

Asian shares tumbled to a 6-week trough, weighed down by fresh trade war concerns following threats from President Donald Trump to Beijing.

MSCI's broadest of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slumped 0.4 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei declined 0.9 percent to 21,521.53 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.5 percent to 6,812.60 points and South Korea's KOSPI plunged 0.4 percent to 2,030.67 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded 1.3 percent lower at 27,777.75 points. Taiwan shares shed 0.1 percent to 10,823.81 points.

Shanghai Composite Index eased 0.7 percent to 2,931.55 points, while CSI 300 index traded 0.9 percent down at 3,833.81 points.



Commodities Recap

Crude Oil prices surged for a fourth straight session, boosted by a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories and as investors awaited a widely expected cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.4 percent higher at $65.19 per barrel by 0500 GMT, having hit a high of $65.25 earlier, its highest since July 17. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.2 percent up at $58.43 a barrel, after rising as high as $58.50 earlier, its highest since the July 16.

Gold prices declined as the dollar held firm ahead of the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s meeting later in the day when policymakers are expected to cut interest rates. Spot gold was 0.1 percent down at $1,429.60 per ounce by 0510 GMT, having touched a low of $1,410.77 on Thursday, its lowest since July 17. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1 percent lower to $1,440.50 an ounce.









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oldtbone

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Asia Roundup:
Antipodeans halts 9-day losing streak on upbeat home prices, greenback at 2-year peak as Fed dampens bets on more rate cuts, Asian shares plunge –
Thursday, August 1st, 2019





Market Roundup

Fed signals rate cuts may be limited

Fonterra's June milk output in New Zealand jumps 14%

Australian home prices find a floor in July, outlook improves

Dollar hits two-year high vs euro

Oil drops as Fed dampens bets on more rate cuts

Gold slides to a two-week low as Fed cuts interest rates



Economic Data Ahead

(0315 ET/0715 GMT) Spain Markit manufacturing PMI July

(0330 ET/0730 GMT) Switzerland SVME purchasing managers index July

(0345 ET/0745 GMT) Italy Markit manufacturing PMI July

(0350 ET/0750 GMT) France Markit manufacturing PMI July

(0355 ET/0755 GMT) Germany Markit manufacturing PMI July

(0400 ET/0800 GMT) EZ Markit manufacturing PMI July

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Markit manufacturing PMI July



Key Events Ahead

(0700 ET/1100 GMT) BoE interest rate decision

(0700 ET/1100 GMT) BoE meeting minutes

(0700 ET/1100 GMT) BoE Governor Carney's speech



FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index surged to a 2-year peak after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, but Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the move might not be the start of a lengthy campaign to support the economy against global risks. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.3 percent up at 98.81, having touched a high of 98.93 earlier, its highest since May 15, 2017.

EUR/USD: The euro slumped to a 2-year low as the greenback rallied across the board after U.S. central bank lowered its benchmark overnight lending rate to a target range of 2.00 percent to 2.25 percent but ruled out a lengthy easing cycle. Moreover, data showing Eurozone economic growth halved in the second quarter and inflation slowed sharply in July, reinforced market expectations that the European Central Bank will further ease monetary policy in September. The European currency traded 0.2 percent down at 1.1049, having touched a low of 1.1033 earlier, its lowest since May 16 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on Markit manufacturing PMI's from the Eurozone economies, ahead of the U.S. unemployment benefit claims, construction spending and manufacturing PMI from both Markit and ISM. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1084 (38.2% retracement of 1.1162 and 1.1033), a break above targets 1.1114 (61.8% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.0973 (May 16, 2017, Low), a break below could drag it below 1.0820 (Apr. 24 2017 Low).

USD/JPY: The dollar rallied to a 2-month peak as the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected, to support the economy against risks including trade friction. Investors still see one more rate cut this year, however, Chairman Jerome Powell's comments during the press conference slashed expectations the Fed is prepared to lower rates well into next year. The major was trading 0.4 percent up at 109.18, having hit a high of 109.31 earlier, its highest since May 31. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. unemployment benefit claims, construction spending and manufacturing PMI from both Markit and ISM. Immediate resistance is located at 109.54 (Jan. 29 High), a break above targets 109.92 (May 30 High). On the downside, support is seen at 108.50 (61.8% retracement of 107.21 and 109.31), a break below could take it lower at 108.26 (50% retracement).

GBP/USD: Sterling plunged to a 2-1/2 year low, weighed down by broad-based greenback strength and growing speculation Britain will go through with a no-deal Brexit. Investors now await the Bank of England policy meeting later in the day, where it is almost certain that the Monetary Policy Committee will vote 9-0 to keep rates on hold at 0.75 percent. The major traded 0.2 percent down at 1.2132, having hit a low of 1.2100 earlier, it’s lowest since Jan. 17 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on the development surrounding Brexit and BoE policy decision, ahead of the U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2200 (23.2% retracement of 1.2522 and 1.2100), a break above could take it near 1.2263 (38.2% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2082 (Oct. 25, 2016, Low), a break below targets 1.2017 (Jan 17, 2017, Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.1 percent down at 91.10 pence, having hit a low of 91.90 on Tuesday, it’s lowest since Sept 2017.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose, halting a 9-day losing streak after domestic data showed home prices stabilised in July, providing some relief to the Reserve Bank of Australia. Earlier in the day, the major tumbled to a 7-month low amid growing expectations RBA will be forced into cutting official interest rates to a new low of 0.75 per cent by December after the inflation just rose by 0.6 percent in the June quarter. The Aussie trades 0.05 percent up at 0.6847, having hit a low of 0.6828 earlier, it’s lowest since Jan. 3. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic releases. Immediate support is seen at 0.6800, a break below targets 0.6744 (Jan 3 Low). On the upside, resistance is located at 0.6888 (23.6% retracement of 0.7082 and 0.6828), a break above could take it near 0.6955 (50% retracement).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar declined to a fresh 6-week trough, as the greenback rallied on Federal Reserve's policy stance. The major attempted a minor recovery after Dairy group Fonterra said milk production in June rose 13.9 percent year-on-year, as weather conditions improved collection in the current season. The Kiwi trades flat at 0.6555, having touched a low of 0.6534 earlier, its lowest level June 20. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6594 (23.6% retracement of 0.6790 and 0.6534), a break above could take it near 0.6662 (50.0% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 0.6513 (July 19 Low), a break below could drag it below 0.6487 (June 14 Low).



Equities Recap

Asian shares plunged to a 6-week low, while the greenback rallied to 2-year highs as the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed market expectations of a lengthy easing cycle following a 25 basis-point rate cut.

MSCI's broadest of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slumped 0.4 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei rose 0.1 percent to 21,540.99 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.4 percent to 6,788.90 points and South Korea's KOSPI plunged 0.3 percent to 2,018.91 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Sengtraded 0.9 percent lower at 27,536.74 points. Taiwan shares shed 0.9 percent to 10,731.75 points.

Shanghai Composite Index eased 0.7 percent to 2,912.29 points, while CSI 300 index traded 0.7 percent down at 3,808.09 points.



Commodities Recap

Crude Oil prices steadied after declining from a 2-week peak in the previous session after the U.S. Federal Reserve dampened hopes for a string of rate cuts and U.S.-China trade talks ended without progress. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.2 percent higher at $64.35 per barrel by 0441 GMT, having hit a high of $65.41 on Wednesday, its highest since July 16. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.05 percent up at $57.87 a barrel, after rising as high as $58.79 on Wednesday, its highest since the July 16.

Gold prices plunged to a 2-week low after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected but tampered market expectations of a lengthy easing cycle. Spot gold was 0.2 percent down at $1,409.35 per ounce by 0444 GMT, having touched a low of $1,404.16 earlier, its lowest since July 17. U.S. gold futures slipped 1.2 percent to $1,421 an ounce.









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oldtbone

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Asia Roundup:
Aussie strengthens on robust retail sales data, Asian markets drastically down, gold hovers around $1,430 mark –
Friday, August 02, 2019





Market Roundup

Australia June retail sales m/m at 0.4 pct vs 0.1 pct previous release (expected 0.3 pct).

Australia PPI q/q at 0.4 pct vs 0.4 pct previous release.

Japan y/y monetary base at 3.7 pct vs 4.0 pct previous release.

Japanese yen strengthens against U.S. dollar, hits highest level since June 25.

Yen rises after Trump’s announcement regarding additional 10% tariff on $300B worth of Chinese imports, starting from Sept 01.



Economic Data Ahead

(0300 ET/0700 GMT) Spain unemployment change (previous -63.8K, expected -21.4K).

(0330 ET/0730 GMT) Swiss manufacturing PMI (previous 47.7, expected 47.0).

(0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy industrial production (previous 0.9 pct, expected -0.3 pct).

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK construction PMI (previous 43.1, expeccted 46.0).

(0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy retail sales (previous -0.7, expected 0.4).

(0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro PPI (previous -0.1, expected -0.3).

(0500 ET/0900 GMT) Eurozone retail sales (previous 1.3 pct, expected 1.3 pct).

(0730 ET/1130 GMT) India M3 money supply (previous 10.3 pct).



Key Events Ahead

(0830 ET/1230 GMT) US NFP job data (previous 224K, expected 164K).



FX Beat

USD: The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched up 0.1% to 98.218.

EUR/USD: The euro was flat at $1.1074, having eased back from a $1.1026 overnight. It made intraday high at $1.1096 and low at $1.1069 mark. A consistent close below $1.1074 will drag the parity down towards key supports around $1.1026 and $1.0852 levels respectively. Alternatively, reversal from key support will drag the parity higher towards key resistances around $1.1220, $1.1390, $1.1472, $1.1550, $1.1620 and $1.1820 marks respectively.

USD/JPY: The Japanese yen strengthens against U.S. dollar, hits highest level since June 25. It made intraday high at 107.56 and low at 106.85 levels. A sustained close above 107.33 is required to take the parity higher towards key resistances around 108.52, 109.62, 112.60 and 113.98 marks respectively. Alternatively, a daily close below 107.33 will drag the parity down towards key support around 104.20 mark.

GBP/USD: The pound trades almost flat against U.S. dollar and stabilizes above $1.21 mark. Pair made intraday high at $1.2144 and low at $1.2088 mark. A sustained close below $1.2126 requires for dragging the parity down towards key support around $1.2087, $1.1920 and $1.1754 mark respectively. On the other side, key resistances are seen at $1.2383, $1.2576 and $1.2772 levels respectively.

AUD/USD: The Aussie rises against major peers on robust retail sales data.The pair made intraday high at $0.6818 and low at $0.6795 levels. A consistent close below $0.6798 requires for downside rally. On the other side, a sustained close above $0.6852 will take the parity higher towards $0.6977 and $0.7076 levels respectively.

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar falls gradually against U.S. dollar and currently trading around $0.6537 mark. A sustained close above $0.6585 requires for the upside rally. Alternatively, key support was seen at $0.6488 mark.



Equities Recap


Tokyo's Nikkei was trading 2.4 pct lower at 21,024.50 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was trading 2.20 percent lower at 26,959.22 points.



Commodities Recap

Crude Oil prices rebounded on Friday in Asia after plunging more than 7% on Trumps’ overnight tweet for more tariffs on Chinese goods. U.S. WTI crude Futures rose 2% to $55.05 by 12:30 AM ET. International Brent Oil Futures gained 2.5% to $62.02.

Gold falls on Friday and currently hovers around $1,430 mark. It touched $1,449 mark in early Asian hours and made low of $1,430 mark.









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Asia Roundup:
Antipodeans plunge on U.S.-China trade tensions, greenback eases as downbeat U.S. non-farm payrolls indicate another Fed rate cut, Asian shares at 6-1/2 month trough –Monday, August 5th, 2019





Market Roundup

Yuan sinks past 7/dollar to over decade low

Oil prices ease as U.S.-China trade war fuels growth concerns

Gold gains on weaker dollar



Economic Data Ahead

(0315 ET/0715 GMT) Spain Markit service PMI July

(0345 ET/0745 GMT) Italy Markit service PMI July

(0350 ET/0750 GMT) France Markit service PMI July

(0350 ET/0750 GMT) France Markit composite PMI July

(0355 ET/0755 GMT) Germany Markit service PMI July

(0350 ET/0755 GMT) Germany Markit composite PMI July

(0400 ET/0800 GMT) EZ Markit service PMI July

(0400 ET/0800 GMT) EZ Markit composite PMI July

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Markit service PMI July

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Markit composite PMI July

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) EZ Sentix investor confidence August



Key Events Ahead

No significant events scheduled



FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index slumped after data released on Friday showed U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 164,000 jobs in July, fewer than the prior month, and wages increased modestly, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in September after it delivered its first rate reduction in more than a decade last month. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.2 percent down at 98.87, having touched a high of 98.93 on Thursday, its highest since May 15, 2017.

EUR/USD: The euro rose, extending gains for the third straight session, as the greenback plunged on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in September. The European currency traded 0.2 percent up at 1.1125, having touched a low of 1.1026 on Thursday, its lowest since May 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on Markit service PMI's from the Eurozone economies and EZ sentix investor confidence, ahead of the U.S. service PMI from both Markit and ISM. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1162 (31 July High), a break above targets 1.1225 (July 22 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1060 (July 31 Low), a break below could drag it below 1.026 (August 1 Low).

USD/JPY: The dollar plunged to a 7-month low against the Japanese yen amid mounting fears over a sharp escalation in the U.S.-China trade war. On Friday, Beijing vowed to retaliate against U.S. President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to impose 10 percent tariffs on the remaining $300 billion in Chinese imports, a move that ended a month-long trade truce. The major was trading 0.6 percent down at 105.97, having hit a low of 105.78 earlier, its lowest since Jan 3. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. service PMI from both Markit and ISM. Immediate resistance is located at 107.13 (38.2% retracement of 109.31 and 105.78), a break above targets 107.55 (50% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 105.45, a break below could take it lower at 104.65.

GBP/USD: Sterling eased after rising to a 5-day peak earlier in the session after Prime Minister Boris Johnson declared that the UK would leave the European Union on October 31, with or without a transitional trade agreement. The major traded 0.2 percent down at 1.2135, having hit a low of 1.2079 on Thursday, it’s lowest since Jan. 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on the development surrounding Brexit and BoE policy decision, ahead of the U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2253 (38.2% retracement of 1.2522 and 1.2079), a break above could take it near 1.2305 (61.8% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2079 (Aug. 1 Low), a break below targets 1.2017 (Jan 17, 2017, Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.5 percent down at 91.69 pence, having hit a low of 91.90 on Tuesday, it’s lowest since Sept 2017.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar tumbled, extending losses for the twelfth straight session, as broadening fallout of the U.S.-China trade dispute saw investors rushing into perceived safe-haven assets. The Aussie trades 0.5 percent down at 0.6767, having hit a low of 0.6748 earlier, it’s lowest since Jan. 3. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic releases. Immediate support is seen at 0.6744 (Jan 3 Low), a break below targets 0.6700. On the upside, resistance is located at 0.6827 (23.6% retracement of 0.7082 and 0.6748), a break above could take it near 0.6876 (38.2% retracement).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar slumped to a near 2-month low, after China vowed to fight back against Trump’s decision, a move that ended a month-long trade truce. The Kiwi trades 0.3 percent down at 0.6515, having touched a low of 0.6488 earlier, its lowest level June 14. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6559 (23.6% retracement of 0.6790 and 0.6488), a break above could take it near 0.6603 (38.2% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 0.6474 (Oct. 4 Low), a break below could drag it below 0.6442 (Oct. 10 Low).



Equities Recap

Asian shares tumbled to 6-1/2-month lows as a rapid escalation in the U.S.-China trade war sent investors stampeding into safe-haven assets

MSCI's broadest of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan declined 2.1 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei plunged 1.9 percent to 20,670.07 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.9 percent to 6,640.30 points and South Korea's KOSPI slumped 2.5 percent to 1,948.44 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded 2.8 percent lower at 26,150.72 points. Taiwan shares shed 1.2 percent to 10,423.41 points.

Shanghai Composite Index eased 1.2 percent to 2,834.07 points, while CSI 300 index traded 1.5 percent down at 3,691.64 points.



Commodities Recap

Crude Oil prices declined amid concerns about weaker crude demand after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would impose tariffs on more Chinese imports, potentially ramping up a trade war between both the economies. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.2 percent higher at $61.12 per barrel by 0427 GMT, having hit a low of $60.00 on Thursday, its lowest since June 13. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.4 percent down at $54.97 a barrel, after falling as low as $53.58 on Thursday, its lowest since the June 19.

Gold prices surged to an over 6-week peak, boosted by a weaker greenback and escalating trade tension between the United States and China. Spot gold rose 0.9 percent to $1,452.65 per ounce by 0433 GMT, having touched a high of $1,455.98 earlier, its highest since May 2013. U.S. gold futures inched down 0.1 percent to $1,455.40 an ounce.









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Asia Roundup:
Aussie rebounds as RBA leaves interest rates unchanged, greenback rallies on U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's comments, Asian shares tumble –
Tuesday, August 6th, 2019





Market Roundup

Australia's central bank holds rates, sees low for longer

U.S. services sector slows; orders hit three-year low

Oil prices rise amid escalating U.S.-China trade war



Economic Data Ahead

(0200 ET/0600 GMT) Germany Factory Orders s.a. MoM June

(0200 ET/0600 GMT) Germany Factory Orders n,s.a. MoM June



Key Events Ahead

No significant events scheduled



FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index rebounded from a 2-week low hit earlier in the day after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that the government had determined that China is manipulating its currency and that Washington would engage the International Monetary Fund to eliminate unfair competition from Beijing. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.2 percent up at 97.60, having touched a low of 97.21 earlier, its lowest since July 22.

EUR/USD: The euro declined, retreating from an over 2-week peak as the greenback rebounded from recent lows. The European currency traded 0.05 percent down at 1.1145, having touched a low of 1.1026 on Thursday, its lowest since May 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on German factory orders, ahead of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings data and Fed Bullard's speech. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1282 (July 19 High), a break above targets 1.1322 (July 2 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1164 (38.2% retracement of 1.1026 and 1.1249), a break below could drag it below 1.1133 (10-DMA).

USD/JPY: The dollar rebounded from a 7-month low on the back of some aggressive short-covering move amid fading safe-haven demand. Investor risk sentiment improved following a modest rebound in the U.S. Treasury bond yields, however, the recovery appears fragile amid renewed U.S.-China trade war fears. The major was trading 0.7 percent up at 106.66, having hit a low of 105.52 earlier, its lowest since Jan 3. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings data and Fed Bullard's speech. Immediate resistance is located at 107.41 (50.0% retracement of 109.31 and 105.52), a break above targets 107.86 (61.8% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 104.65 (Jan. 3 Low), a break below could take it lower at 104.00.

GBP/USD: Sterling consolidated within narrow ranges near 31-month low as investors remained on the sidelines due to the summer recess in the British Parliament. The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s no-deal Brexit preparations have triggered an ire from the opposition as the Labour party leader vows to call a no-confidence motion once the Parliament reconvenes at September-start. The major traded 0.2 percent up at 1.2165, having hit a low of 1.2079 on Thursday, it’s lowest since Jan. 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on the development surrounding Brexit, ahead of the U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2253 (38.2% retracement of 1.2522 and 1.2079), a break above could take it near 1.2305 (61.8% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2079 (Aug. 1 Low), a break below targets 1.2017 (Jan 17, 2017, Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.2 percent up at 92.10 pence, having hit a low of 92.49 earlier, it’s lowest since Sept 2017.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose, halting a 12-day losing streak, after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.00 percent at its meeting today. On Monday, the major slumped to a 7-month low after Beijing vowed to retaliate against U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 10 percent tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese imports. The Aussie trades 0.4 percent up at 0.6779, having hit a low of 0.6748 the day before, it’s lowest since Jan. 3. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic releases. Immediate support is seen at 0.6744 (Jan 3 Low), a break below targets 0.6700. On the upside, resistance is located at 0.6827 (23.6% retracement of 0.7082 and 0.6748), a break above could take it near 0.6876 (38.2% retracement).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar trimmed gains after rising to a 6-day peak earlier in the session as the greenback rebounded from recent lows. The Kiwi trades 0.05 percent up at 0.6515, having touched a low of 0.6488 on Monday, its lowest level June 14. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6559 (23.6% retracement of 0.6790 and 0.6488), a break above could take it near 0.6603 (38.2% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 0.6474 (Oct. 4 Low), a break below could drag it below 0.6442 (Oct. 10 Low).



Equities Recap

Asian shares plunged after Washington designated Beijing a currency manipulator, further escalating the U.S.-China trade war.

MSCI's broadest of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan declined 0.9 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei plunged 0.7 percent to 20,579.16 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 2.5 percent to 6,478.90 points and South Korea's KOSPI slumped 0.7 percent to 1,934.07 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded 0.9 percent lower at 25,896.24 points. Taiwan shares shed 0.3 percent to 10,394.75 points.

Shanghai Composite Index eased 1.4 percent to 2,781.11 points, while CSI 300 index traded 0.9 percent down at 3,641.94 points.



Commodities Recap

Crude Oil prices rose after falling to its lowest since January earlier in the session, as traders betting on declining prices bought back contracts to lock in profits from recent declines caused by the escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and China. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.7 percent higher at $60.44 per barrel by 0428 GMT, having hit a low of $59.08 earlier, its lowest since January. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.6 percent up at $55.32 a barrel, after falling as low as $53.58 on Thursday, its lowest since the June 19.

Gold surged to its highest level in more than six 6-years as a worsening U.S.-China trade conflict prompted investors to dump riskier assets for safe havens. Spot gold rose 0.1 percent to $1,468.50 per ounce by 0436 GMT, having touched a high of $1,474.80 earlier, its highest since April 2013.









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Asia Roundup:
Kiwi plunges to 3-1/2 year low on RBNZ rate cut surprise, dollar eases against yen amid U.S.-China trade tensions, gold at 6-year peak –
Wednesday, August 7th, 2019





Market Roundup

Dollar falls versus yen, offshore yuan slips

Gold hits fresh multi-year high

Trade war between U.S. and China show no signs of abating



Economic Data Ahead

(0330 ET/0730 GMT) UK Halifax House Prices MoM July

(0330 ET/0730 GMT) UK Halifax House Prices 3M/YoY July



Key Events Ahead

(0330 ET/0730 GMT) ECB Coeure's speech



FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index rose, extending previous session gains, as the trade war between China and the United States showed no signs of abating. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.05 percent up at 97.85, having touched a low of 97.21 the day before, its lowest since July 22.

EUR/USD: The euro gained, hovering towards a 2-1/2 week peak hit in the previous session as risk sentiment improved after the Italian government won a confidence vote in the Senate on Monday, prolonging its tenure. Moreover, the major found support after data released yesterday showed June German industrial orders rebounded, indicating the downward trend for the industry had slowed in the second quarter. The European currency traded 0.1 percent up at 1.1219, having touched a high of 1.1249 earlier, its highest since July 19. Investors’ attention will remain on ECB Coeure's speech, ahead of the U.S. consumer credit speech. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1263 (July 16 High), a break above targets 1.1322 (July 2 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1164 (38.2% retracement of 1.1026 and 1.1249), a break below could drag it below 1.1133 (5-DMA).

USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen as market sentiment deteriorated after Beijing sent strong warnings that labelling it a currency manipulator would have severe consequences for the global financial order. The major was trading 0.2 percent down at 106.25, having hit a low of 105.52 on Tuesday, its lowest since Jan 3. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. consumer credit speech. Immediate resistance is located at 106.96 (38.2% retracement of 109.31 and 105.52), a break above targets 107.41 (50% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 105.52 (Aug. 6 Low), a break below could take it lower at 104.65 (Jan. 3 Low

GBP/USD: Sterling held above 31-month lows, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is likely to witness no-confidence motion and/or forced to resign. The major traded flat at 1.2151, having hit a low of 1.2079 on Thursday, it’s lowest since Jan. 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on the development surrounding Brexit, ahead of the U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2253 (38.2% retracement of 1.2522 and 1.2079), a break above could take it near 1.2305 (61.8% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2079 (Aug. 1 Low), a break below targets 1.2017 (Jan 17, 2017, Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.2 percent down at 92.19 pence, having hit a low of 92.49 on Tuesday, it’s lowest since Sept 2017.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar declined to the lowest level since March 2009 as the aggressive easing by the RBNZ will likely put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to ease further. The RBA delivered 25 basis point rate cuts in June and July and is expected to cut rates to 0.75 percent before the year-end. The Aussie trades 0.7 percent down at 0.6712, having hit a low of 0.6677 earlier, it’s lowest since March 2009. Immediate support is seen at 0.6650, a break below targets 0.6600. On the upside, resistance is located at 0.6800 (August 6 High), a break above could take it near 0.6831 (23.6% retracement of 0.7082 and 0.6677).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar plunged below the 0.6400 handle to hit a 3-1/2 year low after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 50 basis points to a record low of 1.00 percent, confounding expectations for a smaller 25 basis point and kept the doors open for further easing in the near future. The Kiwi trades 2.0 percent down at 0.6397, having touched a low of 0.6376 earlier, its lowest level Jan 2016. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6474 (23.6% retracement of 0.6790 and 0.6376), a break above could take it near 0.6534 (38.2% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 0.6350, a break below could drag it below 0.6300.



Equities Recap

Asian shares declined as market sentiment remained fragile, with no clear end in the U.S.-China trade standoff insight.

MSCI's broadest of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan declined 0.05 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei plunged 0.3 percent to 20,516.56 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6 percent to 6,519.50 points and South Korea's KOSPI slumped 0.3 percent to 1,910.98 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded 0.1 percent lower at 25,947.33 points. Taiwan shares shed 0.1 percent to 10,386.18 points.

Shanghai Composite Index eased 0.1 percent to 2,774.58 points, while CSI 300 index traded 0.1 percent down at 3,631.29 points.


Commodities Recap

Crude Oil prices steadied after falling to its lowest level since January, as the intensifying U.S.-China trade dispute continued to cast a shadow over the market. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.3 percent higher at $58.83 per barrel by 0457 GMT, having hit a low of $58.55 earlier, its lowest since January. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.2 percent up at $53.54 a barrel, after falling as low as $53.14, its lowest since the June 18.

Gold prices rallied to a more than 6-year high as the trade war between China and the United States showed no signs of abating, boosting the appeal of safe-haven assets. Spot gold surged 0.8 percent to $1,484.74 per ounce by 0502 GMT, having touched a high of $1,490.02 earlier, its highest since April 2013. U.S. gold futures were up 0.9 percent at $1,497.90 an ounce.









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Asia Roundup:
Antipodeans off lows on China's better-than-expected trade surplus, yen gains on global growth concerns, oil at 7-month lows –
Thursday, August 8th, 2019





Market Roundup

Yen rallies on global growth fears

Oil eases nearly 5% to seven-month low on surprise U.S. stock build

Gold rises on darkening economic outlook

China's exports rose 3.3% in July from a year earlier

China's imports decline by less than expected



Economic Data Ahead

(0300 ET/0700 GMT) Spain industrial output Cal adjusted YoY (June)



Key Events Ahead

(0400 ET/0800 GMT) EZ Economic Bulletin



FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index eased as investors have increasingly come to fear the trade war will prove protracted enough to drag the world into recession. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.1 percent down at 97.52, having touched a low of 97.21 on Tuesday, its lowest since July 22.

EUR/USD: The euro edged up as the greenback eased on rising expectations of aggressive easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve by the year-end. The European currency traded 0.1 percent up at 1.1209, having touched a high of 1.1249 on Tuesday, its highest since July 19. Investors’ attention will remain on EZ Economic Bulletin, ahead of the U.S. unemployment benefit claims and wholesale inventories. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1263 (July 16 High), a break above targets 1.1322 (July 2 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1164 (38.2% retracement of 1.1026 and 1.1249), a break below could drag it below 1.1133 (5-DMA).

USD/JPY: The dollar declined, extending previous session losses, after global central banks slashed rate cuts and indicated more to come as world economic risks grew, boosting the appeal of the safe-haven Japanese yen. The major was trading 0.1 percent down at 106.16, having hit a low of 105.49 on Wednesday, its lowest since Jan 3. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. consumer credit speech. Immediate resistance is located at 106.95 (38.2% retracement of 109.31 and 105.49), a break above targets 107.40 (50% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 105.52 (Aug. 6 Low), a break below could take it lower at 104.65 (Jan. 3 Low).

GBP/USD: Sterling consolidated above 31-month lows, as investors further priced in the probability of Britain leaving the European Union without a deal in place. The major traded 0.2 percent up at 1.2160, having hit a low of 1.2079 last week, it’s lowest since Jan. 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on the development surrounding Brexit, ahead of the U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2253 (38.2% retracement of 1.2522 and 1.2079), a break above could take it near 1.2305 (61.8% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2079 (Aug. 1 Low), a break below targets 1.2017 (Jan 17, 2017, Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading flat at 92.18 pence, having hit a low of 92.49 on Tuesday, it’s lowest since Sept 2017.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rebounded from multi-year lows after China reported a bigger-than-expected increase in the trade surplus for July, as exports jumped unexpectedly while imports fell less-than-expected. Chinese exports rose 3.3 percent in July from a year earlier, while imports declined by less than expected, suggesting some resilience to the drawn-out U.S.-China tariff war. The Aussie trades 0.2 percent up at 0.6773, having hit a low of 0.6677 on Wednesday, it’s lowest since March 2009. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic releases. Immediate support is seen at 0.6700, a break below targets 0.6650. On the upside, resistance is located at 0.6800 (August 6 High), a break above could take it near 0.6831 (23.6% retracement of 0.7082 and 0.6677).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar retreated from recent lows as the greenback eased across the board. On Wednesday, the major tumbled to a 3-1/2 year low after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets with a bigger than expected interest rate cut and flagged the possibility of negative rates. The Kiwi trades 0.2 percent up at 0.6433, having touched a low of 0.6376 the day before, its lowest level Jan 2016. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6474 (23.6% retracement of 0.6790 and 0.6376), a break above could take it near 0.6534 (38.2% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 0.6350, a break below could drag it below 0.6300.



Equities Recap

Asian shares surged after China reported better trade numbers, offering temporary relief from worries of a global currency war.

MSCI's broadest of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.6 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei rallied 0.5 percent to 20,611.88 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6 percent to 6,560.10 points and South Korea's KOSPI surged 1.3 percent to 1,933.99 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded 0.6 percent higher at 26,153.03 points. Taiwan shares added 1.05 percent to 10,494.19 points.

Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9 percent to 2,792.15 points, while CSI 300 index traded 0.1 percent up at 3,664.55 points.



Commodities Recap

Crude Oil prices steadied after falling to multi-month lows in the previous session amid concerns that a global economic slowdown would hurt crude demand. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.8 percent higher at $57.78 per barrel by 0427 GMT, having hit a low of $55.86 the day before, its lowest since January. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.6 percent up at $52.62 a barrel, after falling as low as $50.51 on Wednesday, its lowest since the January.

Gold prices held firm after surpassing the $1,500 mark in the previous session, as central banks around the world slashed interest rates amidst fears of a global recession. Spot gold was trading flat at $1,500.87 per ounce by 0430 GMT, having touched a high of $1,510.29 on Wednesday, its highest since April 2013. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3 percent at $1,515.30 an ounce.









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Asia Roundup:
Aussie gains on RBA Governor Lowe's comments, yen extends rally on U.S.-China trade dispute, investors eye UK GDP report –
Friday, August 9th, 2019





Market Roundup

U.S.-China trade row supports safe-havens

Gold eyes best week in over three years

Oil dips amid trade worries

RBA: Australia economy seen turning up

RBA: Zero rates, QE unlikely but possible



Economic Data Ahead

(0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy Global trade balance June

(0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy trade balance EU June

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK prelim gross domestic product YoY Q2

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK prelim gross domestic product MoM Q2

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK manufacturing production MM June

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK manufacturing production YY June

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK industrial production MM June

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK industrial production YY June

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Trade Balance June

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Trade Balance non-EU June

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Goods Trade Balance June

(0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK gross domestic product MoM June

(0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy Consumer price index EU MoM June

(0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy Consumer price index MoM June

(0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy Consumer price index EU YoY June

(0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy Consumer price index YoY June



Key Events Ahead

No Significant Event Scheduled



FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index steadied as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed 2.4 basis points higher at 1.715 percent after hitting 1.595 percent on Wednesday, its lowest level since October 2016. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded flat at 97.59, having touched a low of 97.21 on Tuesday, its lowest since July 22.

EUR/USD: The euro rose, reversing previous session losses after Reuters reported that Germany is considering ending its long-cherished balanced budget goal by issuing new debt to finance a costly climate protection package. The European currency traded 0.2 percent up at 1.1197, having touched a high of 1.1249 on Tuesday, its highest since July 19. Investors’ attention will remain on a series of data from the Eurozone economies, ahead of the U.S. producer price index data. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1233 (July 17 High), a break above targets 1.1282 (July 19 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1164 (38.2% retracement of 1.1026 and 1.1249), a break below could drag it below 1.1138 (50% retracement).

USD/JPY: The dollar declined, extending losses for the third straight session, as U.S. President Donald Trump again expressed dissatisfaction with the strength of the greenback, saying the Federal Reserve’s interest rates were harming American manufacturers. The major was trading 0.2 percent down at 105.91, having hit a low of 105.49 on Wednesday, its lowest since Jan 3. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. producer price index data. Immediate resistance is located at 106.39 (23.6% retracement of 109.31 and 105.49), a break above targets 106.95 (38.2% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 105.52 (Aug. 6 Low), a break below could take it lower at 104.65 (Jan. 3 Low).

GBP/USD: Sterling continued to trade within narrow ranges above the 1.2100 handle, as investors remained on the sidelines amid prospect of a no-deal Brexit and news that Prime Minister Boris Johnson would hold an election in the days following Brexit if lawmakers sunk his government with a vote of no-confidence. The major traded 0.1 percent up at 1.2147, having hit a low of 1.2079 last week, it’s lowest since Jan. 2017. Investors’ attention will remain on the development surrounding Brexit, ahead of the U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2188 (23.6% retracement of 1.2522 and 1.2079), a break above could take it near 1.2253 (38.2% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2079 (Aug. 1 Low), a break below targets 1.2017 (Jan 17, 2017, Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading flat at 92.16 pence, having hit a low of 92.65 on Thursday, it’s lowest since August 2017.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose, extending previous session gains after the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that zero interest rates and quantitative easing are unlikely to be needed. RBA Governor Philip Lowe emphasized the central bank’s base case was for the economy to improve and that it may now be at a turning point with growth expected to pick up next year. The Aussie trades 0.2 percent up at 0.6812, having hit a low of 0.6677 on Wednesday, it’s lowest since March 2009. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic releases. Immediate support is seen at 0.6774 (5-DMA), a break below targets 0.6700. On the upside, resistance is located at 6831 (38.2% retracement of 0.7082 and 0.6677), a break above could take it near 0.6879 (50% retracement).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar gained but on course for its third weekly decline. The major slumped to its lowest in more than three years earlier in the week after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stunned markets by cutting interest rates more than expected and hinting at taking rates into negative territory. The Kiwi trades 0.2 percent up at 0.6493, having touched a low of 0.6376 on Wednesday, its lowest level Jan 2016. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6534 (38.2% retracement of 0.6790 and 0.6376), a break above could take it near 0.6583 (50% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 0.6400, a break below could drag it below 0.6365.



Equities Recap

Asian shares steadied as China’s solid export figures and a stabilization in the yuan boosted investor risk appetite, although concerns about U.S.-China trade ties limited gains.

MSCI's broadest of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.2 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei rallied 0.5 percent to 20,684.82 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3 percent to 6,584.40 points and South Korea's KOSPI surged 1.1 percent to 1,942.02 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded 0.3 percent lower at 26,039.66 points.

Shanghai Composite Index Shanghai composite index eased 0.8 percent to 2,771.94 points, while CSI 300 index traded 1.1 percent down at 3,630.25 points.



Commodities Recap

Crude Oil prices declined amid fears over demand as the U.S-China trade dispute casts its shadow over markets, although expectations of more OPEC production cuts limited downside. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.8 percent lower at $57.78 per barrel by 0531 GMT, having hit a low of $55.86 on Wednesday, its lowest since January. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.7 percent down at $52.53 a barrel, after falling as low as $50.51 on Wednesday, its lowest since the January.

Gold prices steadied above the $1,500 mark as an escalation in the U.S.-China trade dispute and fears of a global economic slowdown triggered fresh interest for safe-haven assets. Spot gold was trading 0.3 percent up at $1,505.04 per ounce by 0535 GMT, having touched a high of $1,510.29 on Wednesday, its highest since April 2013. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.7 percent at $1,509.50 per ounce.









DAPATKAN INFO TERKINI DAILY MARKET NEWS SETIAP HARI DI FIREWOODFX

http://www.firewoodfx.com/category/forex-market-news/
 
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