Ekonomi China akan menjadi tumpuan utama suku tahun ini

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Ms Senorita

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1. Tumpuan di China : Musim perolehan suku awal tahun ini, akan menyentuh banyak perihal mengenai ekonomi China.

Berikutan amaran terhadap Apple (AAPL) kepada pelabur minggu lepas, ketika CEO Tim Cook berkata syarikat itu akan kehilangan sasarannya baru-baru ini disebabkan oleh penjualan yang lembap dan kegawatan ekonomi di China.

Terdapat beberapa perdebatan mengenai sama ada masalah Apple di negara ini merupakan yang utama pada syarikat, atau jika mereka beri perhatian untuk memperbesarkan isu. Namun, kebimbangan mengenai China melangkaui Cupertino, dan mungkin akan menjadi topik hangat semasa pendapatan korporat pada musim sejuk ini.

Selepas beberapa dekad berkembang, enjin ekonomi China kehilangan momentum. Pertumbuhan pada 2018 dijangka menjadi yang paling lemah sejak tahun 1990. Dan prospek bagi ekonomi kedua terbesar dunia pada tahun yang akan datang adalah lebih buruk, kerana perang perdagangan dengan Amerika Syarikat dan kerajaan mula mengambil jalan pintas hutang memberi kesan buruk.

Senarai panjang jenama global selama ini bergantung kepada pasaran besar China untuk pertumbuhan - dari General Motors (GM) ke Volkswagen hingga ke Starbucks (SBUX) mengundang petanda masalah.

Pembuat kereta sudah mengetahui tanda-tanda bahaya. GM, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover dan Ford (F) melaporkan lewat tahun lalu bahawa penjualan di negara itu sedang menurun ketika pertumbuhan ekonomi China mengalami kejatuhan dan permintaan barangan besar seperti kereta mula berkurangan.

Ia merupakan berita buruk bagi GM dan Volkswagen, yang kini membawa lebih banyak pendapatan dari China daripada dari Amerika Syarikat atau Eropah.

Pendedahan di China juga turut seperti Tesla (TSLA), yang telah menurunkan harga di negara ini kerana ia mula membina sebuah kilang di Shanghai.

Kemudian Starbucks pula, yang mempunyai cita-cita rancangan untuk berkembang di China, pasaran kedua terbesar syarikat itu selepas Amerika Syarikat. Ekonomi yang lembap menjejaskan rangkaian kedai kopi seperti yang memerlukan ‘oomph’ itu bagi menghadapi orang penting tempatan, dan Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif Kevin Johnson pasti akan diminta menjelaskan strategi syarikat itu.

Syarikat-syarikat yang menghasilkan barang-barang mewah, perbezaan di China ialah termasuk Starbucks, dijangka melihat impak terbesar. Syarikat seperti Yum! Jenama (YUM), yang memiliki KFC dan Pizza Hut, mungkin boleh ditangani dengan lebih baik, menurut penganalisis. Tetapi masih menghadapi tanda tanya mengenai keuntungan perolehannya.

Tetapi dalam beberapa kes, permintaan rendah yang melanda di China mungkin ‘kambing hitam’ yang mudah bagi syarikat yang sedang gigih berusaha, menurut Ed Yardeni, presiden firma penasihat pelaburan Yardeni Research. Sebagai contoh, sesetengah penganalisis percaya Apple menganggap terlalu banyak pengguna China yang masih ingin membeli iPhone jika alternatif yang lebih murah menguasai pasaran.

"Apple seolah-olah cuba menyalahkan keputusan yang mengecewakan mereka disebabkan kelembapan di China dan [Presiden Donald] Trump memulakan perang perdagangan," kata Yardeni. "Tetapi ia mungkin ada kaitan dengan telefon pintar yang melambak dipasaran."

2. Petunjuk Ekonomi : Seiring dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika Syarikat sejak dekad yang lalu, pelabur tidak memberikan perhatian yang serius kepada laporan tentang perumahan, perniagaan kecil, inflasi dan industri perkhidmatan. Tetapi ekonomi dijangka perlahan pada tahun 2019, dan pelabur yang kebimbangan akan melihat dengan lebih dekat kepada petunjuk-petunjuk ekonomi yang tidak diingini sebelumnya.

Pada Isnin, Institut Pengurusan Bekalan akan melaporkan pertumbuhan industri perkhidmatan bulan lepas. Minggu lalu, ISM melaporkan bahawa industri perkilangan menyusut dengan jumlah terbesar dalam tempoh 10 tahun.


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China will be the theme of this quarter's earnings season


1. Eyes on China : This earnings season, prepare for a lot of talk about the Chinese economy.

That's largely because of Apple's (AAPL) bombshell warning to investors last week, when CEO Tim Cook said the company would miss its most recent target largely because of poor sales and a slowing economy in China.

There's some debate about whether Apple's problems in the country are company-specific, or if they point to broader issues. Still, concerns about China extend beyond Cupertino, and will probably be a hot topic during corporate earnings this winter.

After decades of expansion, China's economic engine is losing momentum. Growth in 2018 is expected to be the weakest since 1990. And the outlook for the world's second largest economy in the coming year is even worse, as the trade war with the United States and government attempts to curb runaway debt take a toll.

For the long list of global brands that have come to rely on China's massive market for growth — from General Motors (GM) to Volkswagen to Starbucks (SBUX) — that spells trouble.

Automakers are already seeing signs of danger. GM, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover and Ford (F) reported late last year that sales in the country were sliding as the Chinese economy slowed and demand for big-ticket items like cars began to wane.

That's bad news for GM and Volkswagen, which now bring in more revenue from China than from the United States or Europe.

Exposure to China could also dog Tesla (TSLA), which has been cutting prices in the country just as it begins to build a factory in Shanghai.

Then there's Starbucks, which has ambitious plans to expand in China, the company's second-biggest market after the United States. The sluggish economy could hurt the coffee chain just as it needs the oomph to face down local players, and CEO Kevin Johnson will almost certainly be asked to explain the company's strategy.

Companies that produce luxury items, a distinction that in China can include Starbucks, are expected to see the biggest impact. A company such as Yum! Brands (YUM), which owns KFC and Pizza Hut, may be dealt a softer blow, according to analysts. But it could still face questions on its earnings call.

But in some cases, flagging demand in China may be a convenient scapegoat for struggling companies, according to Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory firm Yardeni Research. For example, some analysts believe Apple overestimated how many Chinese consumers would want to pay for iPhones when less expensive alternatives dominate the market.

"Apple seemed to try to blame their disappointing results on weakness in China and [President Donald] Trump starting a trade war," Yardeni said. "But it might have something to do with the smartphone market being saturated."


2. Economic indicators : As the US economy grew steadily over the past decade, investors didn't pay acute attention to reports on housing, small businesses, inflation and the services industries. But the economy is expected to slow in 2019, and nervous investors are taking a closer look at previously overlooked economic indicators.

On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management will report on the service industry's growth last month. Last week, ISM reported that the manufacturing industry shrank by the largest amount in 10 years.


Sumber : CNN-Business.
 

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wantrader82

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up2...boleh dapat deviden unit trust besaq skit...insyaAllah...
 

momoque

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Dgr kabo depa nk buat silk road rentas smpai europe..

Kongker dunia melalui investment

Byk negara africa dh terjerat
 

fms

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ekonomi ade putaran dia sendiri..biasa laa tu klu jatuh..
 
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