Daily technical analysis of USD/CAD By INSTAFOREX

Live Forex Chart

Currency
Rates
EUR / USD
1.10103
USD / JPY
107.712
GBP / USD
1.24363
USD / CHF
0.96421
USD / CAD
1.41002
EUR / JPY
118.594
AUD / USD
0.61327

CG Sponsors




painofhell

Active+ Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,851
Reaction score
51
Points
30
General overview
The impulsive wave progression to the upside had been completed according to the main count, and it looks like the market is in corrective cycle currently. The last move higher was in a clear three waves. So, the correction might be more complex and time-consuming. Any breakout below the weekly pivot support at the level of 1.2947 will confirm this view and alternative count will be in play.

Trading recommendations:
All TP targets for buy orders from last week has been hit. Currently the market is consolidating the gains and daytraders should wait for more clear pattern to appear.
 
Sponsored Post

painofhell

Active+ Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,851
Reaction score
51
Points
30
General overview
The corrective cycle is still developing as the b green and c green waves are needed to complete the correction. The market is very range-bounded, but is trading above the weekly pivot and inside the bullish zone. Nevertheless, the downside breakout is expected in order to complete the c green wave. The first support comes at the level of 1.2947, but it might get easy violated.

Trading recommendations:
Currently, the market is consolidating the gains inside the bullish zone and daytraders should wait for a clearer pattern to appear or for the corrective cycle to get complete.
 

painofhell

Active+ Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,851
Reaction score
51
Points
30
General overview
Because the alternative count on the hourly chart looks more convenient now, let's take a look at this count on the H4 chart. A 6-year high at the level of 1.3055 had been violated and the market reached a new high. Nevertheless, with this Elliott wave labeling we can clearly see that there is one more wave up missed - wave 5 black of wave 5 green. The dynamic regression channel confirms this view as it is still pointing upwards. Please remember that the count on the hourly chart (main count) is even more bullish than this one, so we can not rule out more appreciations of US dollar.

Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should consider opening buy orders only if the level of 1.2978 is violated with SL below the level of 1.2910 and TP at the level of 1.3026 with a possible upside extension.
 

painofhell

Active+ Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,851
Reaction score
51
Points
30
General overview
The upward wave progression did not hit the projected target level yet, but the move is still possible. The intraday support at the level of 1.3110 is the key level to the upside, because any breakout lower would expose the weekly pivot at the level of 1.3031 to test.

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should consider closing all mid-term and long-term buy orders as the upward cycle might be topping soon. Please wait for another buy opportunity to come when the downward corrective cycle is completed.
 

painofhell

Active+ Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,851
Reaction score
51
Points
30
General overview
As anticipated yesterday, the level of 1.3204 was hit and the whole impulsive structure looks completed. There is, however, a possibility of minor internal progression to the upside to complete the sub-wave v blue, but both counts are pointing out that the mid-term top might be in place. To confirm this scenario, the market need to breakout below the intraday support at the level of 1.3110 in impulsive way and head towards the weekly pivot point at 1.3031.

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should consider closing all mid-term and long-term buy orders as the upward cycle might be topping soon. Please wait for another buy opportunity to come when the downward corrective cycle is completed.
 

painofhell

Active+ Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,851
Reaction score
51
Points
30
General overview
An alternative count is currently seen. The market does not want to breakout higher above the level of 1.3213. This would mean the top for the wave B blue might be in place if the invalidation line at the level of 1.3095 is violated before any new high is reached. As the result, the alternative labeling will become the main count of ABC blue irregular flat correction with wave C blue to the downside, which is yet to be developed.

Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should consider that the level of 1.3095 can be violated with tight SL (15-20 pips) and TP at the level of 1.3031.
Swingtraders should consider closing all mid-term and long-term buy orders as the upward cycle might be concluded soon. Please wait for another buy opportunity to come when the downward corrective cycle is completed.
 

painofhell

Active+ Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,851
Reaction score
51
Points
30
General overview
The impulsive blue count looks invalidated due to wave i blue and wave iv blue overlaps. This would mean an alternative count is in play now. The first confirmation that the wave B blue top is at the level of 1.3213 comes with a breakout of the intraday support at the level of 1.3097. Any new high above the level of 1.3213 invalidates this view.

Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should consider that the level of 1.3097 can be violated with tight SL (15-20 pips) and TP at the level of 1.3031. Swingtraders should consider closing all mid-term and long-term buy orders as the upward cycle might be concluded soon. Please wait for another buy opportunity to come when the downward corrective cycle is completed.
 

painofhell

Active+ Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,851
Reaction score
51
Points
30
General overview
The ending diagonal wave (v) green expected since yesterday is still possible to occur, however the market starts to indicate more clearly a possible near - term top. Regardless of the wave 1 blue top placement (that has not been fully confirmed yet), the market is trading below the weekly pivot at the level of 1.3130. Any further deterioration towards the level of 1.2858 would mean the wave development favors wave C blue to the downside to be made as a final corrective wave.

Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should refrain from trading until a clear pattern appears or the corrective cycle is completed. A possible top is in place.
 

painofhell

Active+ Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,851
Reaction score
51
Points
30
General overview
The current price action inside the neutral zone looks like a typical market behavior during the topping process. This scenario is currently being supported by the Elliott wave count that indicates a possible top for the wave 1 blue. Nevertheless, the further clues will come only if the market breakout below the intraday support at the level of 1.2991 takes place. The golden trendline is currently the key dynamic resistance and only a breakout higher would invalidate the topping scenario.

Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should refrain from trading until a clear pattern appears or the corrective cycle is completed. A possible top is in place
 

painofhell

Active+ Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,851
Reaction score
51
Points
30
General overview for
The corrective cycle continues in this pair after the top of the wave 1 blue at the level of 1.3211. This corrective structure might evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern and the current abc green cycle to the downside might be just a part of some higher-degree corrective cycle.

Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from the level of 1.3092 with tight SL (10-20 pips) and TP at the level of 1.3000
 
Sponsored Post
Top
Log in Register