Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

US500 Price Action Near Bollinger Band Edge

The US500, commonly referred to as the S&P 500 Index, is a benchmark stock market index tracking the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Often nicknamed “the market” due to its wide breadth, the US500 is a key indicator for investors globally. Today, all eyes are on the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports. These economic indicators are closely watched for signs of consumer confidence and inflation outlook—two critical components influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions. Stronger-than-expected data could bolster USD strength by reinforcing a hawkish Fed outlook, while weaker sentiment may increase speculation of policy easing, potentially lifting equities. As the S&P 500 approaches key technical levels, today’s UoM data could act as a catalyst for a breakout or a retracement.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The S&P 500 price has been moving in a bullish trend since April 2025, maintaining its long-term uptrend with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The H4 chart shows the price action respecting a rising regression trend channel, with the latest candles forming near the middle of the lower half of this channel. Recently, Bollinger Bands have tightened significantly, indicating a potential volatility expansion. The price has reached a key resistance level around 6100, aligning with the upper Bollinger Band. After testing this resistance twice and failing to break through, the latest candles have turned bearish, suggesting short-term selling pressure. The MACD histogram shows weakening momentum with a potential bearish crossover developing, and volume remains subdued, indicating indecision or lack of conviction among bulls. As the price oscillates between the middle and upper Bollinger Band, the risk of a minor retracement increases unless upcoming fundamental catalysts reignite upward momentum.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

Detailed H4 Chart Analysis for AUDUSD Today

The AUD/USD pair, often referred to as the "Aussie Dollar," is a popular currency pair in the forex market, representing the exchange rate between the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar. It is significantly influenced by economic events and data from both Australia and the United States, with commodity prices, employment figures, and central bank policies playing key roles in its movements. Today, the market is awaiting crucial economic reports. For Australia, the employment data, including changes in employment and the unemployment rate, will be highly anticipated. A positive outcome could signal economic strength, supporting the Aussie Dollar. Conversely, the US will release Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, reflecting foreign demand for US securities. If the TIC data exceeds expectations, it could boost the US Dollar as increased foreign investment in US assets generally leads to higher demand for USD. Additionally, the US Juneteenth holiday could result in low liquidity, which may lead to irregular volatility in the forex market, impacting the AUDUSD pair.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The H4 chart for AUD/USD reveals a price moving within a slight bullish trend, marked by several ups and downs. The price has been fluctuating between the upper and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands, indicating some volatility. Recently, the price has moved from the lower band toward the upper band and is now encountering resistance at the middle band. This middle band is aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the center line of the regression trend, which together act as a strong resistance zone. The last candlestick is red, indicating the AUD USD price could struggle to break through this resistance. Additionally, volume indicators show a decline in momentum, with the previous large red candle followed by a smaller red candle. This suggests that the market may be losing bullish momentum, and the price could face a pullback before any further upward movement. The MACD and histogram also indicate weakening bullish momentum, further supporting the idea that the price may struggle to break through the resistance at the 0.786 Fibonacci level.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

GBPUSD Price Action Reveals Potential Bullish Continuation

The GBPUSD currency pair, often nicknamed "Cable" due to historical submarine cable connections between the UK and the US, remains one of the most actively traded forex pairs globally. Today, the British pound's strength hinges significantly on the speeches of key Bank of England (BOE) policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC members Megan Greene and David Ramsden. Hawkish comments signaling possible tightening or future interest rate increases are likely to bolster GBP strength. Meanwhile, the US dollar will react to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's semiannual monetary policy report and other Fed officials' speeches, where any indication of sustained hawkish policy could strengthen USD and increase volatility in the GBPUSD pair.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From a technical perspective, analyzing the GBPUSD H4 chart reveals important price action patterns. After breaking the 1.34218 support level, the price revisited this level several times, recently piercing it but finding strong support within the highlighted support zone. This suggests the correction phase could be nearing completion, allowing a potential continuation of the upward trend. The RSI divergence indicates weakening bearish momentum, signaling possible bullish reversal, while the Parabolic SAR shows a bullish sentiment emerging. The Stochastic oscillator, currently indicating overbought conditions, suggests cautiousness but does not exclude further upside if momentum sustains. For bullish scenarios, the previous high at 1.35206 serves as an initial price target.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

EURUSD Price Action Reversal Signals and Indicators

The EUR-USD, widely known in forex markets as "Fiber," represents the value of the Euro against the US Dollar and is one of the most liquid and traded currency pairs globally. Today's fundamental analysis for EURUSD is driven by significant economic data releases from both Europe and the US. On the Euro side, traders will closely monitor consumer expenditure data and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports from INSEE and the National Statistics Institute, crucial for assessing inflationary pressures and economic activity, thus influencing ECB's monetary policy stance. Meanwhile, the US Dollar could see movement influenced by personal consumption expenditure data, consumer sentiment reports from the University of Michigan, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials on labor market conditions and inflation expectations. These releases are vital as they shape market expectations regarding interest rates and monetary policy, significantly impacting the EUR-USD pair.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the uploaded EUR USD H4 chart reveals that the price action is confined within an ascending channel, recently hitting the upper boundary, suggesting a potential reversal and correction to the downside. The momentum, indicated by Bollinger Bands, reinforces this outlook, as price retracement towards the moving average of the Bollinger Band and subsequently its lower boundary is anticipated. The Stochastic oscillator indicates an overbought condition, signaling weakening upward momentum, while the %R indicator similarly suggests a likely downward correction from current levels, confirming the short-term bearish price action.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

AUDUSD 4H Chart Signals Reversal Potential

The AUD/USD forex pair, commonly known as the "Aussie," is one of the most actively traded pairs in the market, influenced heavily by commodity prices, interest rate expectations, and macroeconomic data from both Australia and the U.S. Today’s focus is on the Melbourne Institute CPI and Private Sector Credit releases, which could boost the Australian Dollar if inflation and credit data surprise to the upside. Meanwhile, the U.S. Chicago PMI and speeches from Fed officials Bostic and Goolsbee may strengthen the USD if they adopt a hawkish stance, making today crucial for short-term AUD-USD direction based on these key economic drivers.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
As observed in the AUD/USD 4-hour chart, the pair has been experiencing a broader bullish trend over the long term, albeit with intermittent corrections. Recently, price action surged strongly from the 0.63755 support zone, aligning with a significant volume increase, and is now retracing slightly after touching the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands. The latest candle is green and has rebounded from the middle Bollinger Band and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near 0.6511—indicating renewed bullish momentum that could drive the AUD USD price toward the upper Bollinger Band and the key psychological resistance at the 1.000 Fibonacci level (~0.6580). However, the recent red volume bars suggest selling pressure, which warrants caution. The MACD line is slightly above the signal line but flattening, while the histogram shows weakening bullish momentum—traders should watch for confirmation before further upside continuation.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

US500 price action analysis post NFP release

The US500, also commonly referred to as the S&P 500 or SPX, is a benchmark index tracking the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. Known as the “broad market index,” it serves as a barometer for U.S. equity markets and the health of the broader economy. In forex and index trading, it plays a key role in global risk sentiment and is closely watched by traders, especially during periods of economic announcements and central bank policy updates. Fundamentally, today's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and related labor market data will heavily influence the US500 price action. Strong NFP numbers and rising wages would reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, potentially boosting the U.S. dollar while pressuring equities due to future rate hike fears. Conversely, softer labor data might give equities a bullish push as traders bet on rate cuts or a more dovish Fed stance. Additionally, ISM and PMI services data, along with Raphael Bostic’s speech on monetary policy, are likely to inject further volatility. As inflation and employment remain at the center of Fed policy, today's data holds the potential to reshape market sentiment on the S&P500 daily chart technical and fundamental outlook.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, the US500 H4 chart shows the index in a strong bullish uptrend, having reached a new all-time high at approximately 6276.43, with price action riding a steep ascending trendline. The Ichimoku Cloud confirms bullish momentum: the cloud (Kumo) is green and expanding, indicating strength and support below. The price is trading well above the cloud and above the base line, and closely hugging the conversion line, a sign of sustained upward momentum. The lagging span is slightly above price, signaling continued bullish confirmation. Volume shows increasing participation, while the MACD histogram and MACD lines remain in positive territory, showing continued bullish momentum but also suggesting potential overextension as momentum starts to slow. This setup calls for cautious optimism: while the trend remains bullish, upcoming economic data could trigger a short-term correction or consolidation near the highs on the US500 H4 chart technical analysis.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

EURUSD analysis with key support and resistance

The EUR/USD, also known as the "Euro-Dollar" and "Fiber," is one of the most actively traded forex pairs, reflecting the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar. Its movement is heavily influenced by economic data and monetary policies from both the Eurozone and the United States. Today’s market activity is expected to be subdued due to the US holiday, Independence Day, which may result in low liquidity and erratic volatility. Key Eurozone data, including industrial orders, output, and retail sales, will provide insights into economic strength, potentially supporting the Euro if results exceed expectations. However, with reduced market activity in the US, significant movement may be limited unless unexpected data causes a surprise shift in sentiment.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The EUR/USD price has been moving in an upward bullish trend, but after the significant bearish candle observed yesterday, the price has corrected partially. As seen in the Bollinger Bands, the price has dropped from the middle band to the lower band in a single candle, indicating short-term volatility. Following this drop, three green candles have emerged, with the most recent one trying to recover and reach the middle band once again. The chart highlights important support and resistance levels that have previously influenced price reactions. The MACD and histogram indicators show some bullish momentum, but caution is advised given the market's current state of lower liquidity due to the US holiday.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

UK100 Forex Trading Insights with Bollinger Bands

The UK100, commonly known as the FTSE 100 or 'Footsie', represents the 100 largest companies by market capitalization listed on the London Stock Exchange, making it a crucial indicator of the UK's economic health. Traders closely watch this index for forex trading signals and currency strength analysis. Fundamentally, today's key event is the release of the Halifax Bank of Scotland House Price Index (HBOS HPI), a significant indicator of the housing market's health. A higher-than-forecast reading will likely boost investor sentiment and support GBP currency pairs, positively influencing the UK100 due to increased investor confidence and economic optimism. Additionally, traders should pay attention to developments from the annual BRICS summit, as geopolitical events can affect investor risk appetite and consequently impact the UK100 price movements.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically analyzing the UK100 H4 chart, after breaking the significant support at 8738.78 and retesting it multiple times, the index has initiated an ascending channel signaling a bullish trend. The price currently rests at the channel's lower boundary, coinciding with the middle Bollinger Band, providing robust support as evidenced by the latest green candle. Bollinger Bands indicate volatility contracting, suggesting a potential imminent expansion and continuation upward within the channel. The Parabolic SAR indicator currently aligns below price action, confirming bullish momentum. The RSI is moderately positioned around the neutral 50 level, signaling room for potential upward momentum. Additionally, the MACD histogram is diminishing in negative territory, suggesting weakening bearish momentum and a potential bullish crossover, strengthening the outlook for bullish price action.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

USDJPY Forex Pair Resistance Levels and Correction Forecast

The USD-JPY forex pair, also known as the "Gopher," represents the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. This pair is a widely traded currency pair reflecting economic relationships and market sentiment between the US and Japan. Today's upcoming news includes important releases from the US NFIB Small Business Index and consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve, indicating economic health and consumer confidence. A positive reading in these indicators typically strengthens the USD. Meanwhile, from Japan, key data include bank lending figures, the adjusted current account, and the Eco Watchers Current Index from the Ministry of Finance and Cabinet Office, respectively, which indicate consumer and business confidence. Positive results can strengthen the Yen, creating potential volatility and trading opportunities in USD/JPY.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USD-JPY H4 chart, after testing the upper resistance line of the ascending channel, the price appears poised for a correction before potentially retesting resistance levels. Bollinger Bands have widened, signaling increased volatility and supporting the likelihood of a price correction. If a correction occurs, the middle line of the channel could serve as support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, suggesting potential bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram bars are diminishing, hinting at decreasing bullish strength, which further confirms the likelihood of a short-term correction.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

ND100 H4 chart signals new breakout level

The Nasdaq 100, also known as ND100 or the US Tech Index, represents the top 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, making it a popular instrument in Forex and CFD trading. Renowned for its volatility and tech-driven composition, it often reacts strongly to U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve announcements. Today, traders are closely watching the Nasdaq 100 as several impactful U.S. fundamentals are due for release. The spotlight is on Initial Jobless Claims, where a lower-than-expected figure would support the USD and possibly pressure ND100. Additionally, three FOMC speakers—Musalem, Waller, and Daly—are scheduled to discuss the economic outlook, and any hawkish tone could hint at tighter monetary policy, reinforcing the dollar and possibly leading to a short-term dip in equities. Secondary data, including Natural Gas Storage and the 30-Year Bond Auction, may influence risk sentiment, but labor data and Fed commentary are expected to drive the main price action in ND100 trading today.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, the ND100 is maintaining a strong bullish trend on both short- and long-term timeframes, currently hovering near its all-time high (ATH). As shown on the H4 chart, price action is steadily climbing along the ascending trendline, with candles moving in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, frequently touching the upper band, indicating sustained buying pressure. Immediate support lies around 23,000 and 22,800, with 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (22,344). The Williams %R indicator is at -17.01, entering overbought territory, which may signal a potential short-term consolidation or pullback, especially if today's fundamentals trigger a shift in sentiment. However, overall market structure remains bullish, and if the price breaks above the current resistance zone, it could pave the way for a new all-time high, reinforcing the Nasdaq 100 ND100 bullish trend.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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