Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

USDJPY Price Action Signals Possible Bearish Continuation

The USD/JPY currency pair, often referred to as the "Ninja," represents the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen, two of the world's most traded currencies. This forex pair is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors, including monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Today, upcoming U.S. economic data, including JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders, will provide key insights into labor market strength and industrial activity, potentially impacting the dollar's direction. Additionally, FOMC members Bostic and Daly’s speeches could offer further clarity on future interest rate decisions, shaping market sentiment. Meanwhile, Japan's Monetary Base and 10-year bond auction may give traders clues about potential shifts in the Bank of Japan's stance, adding to the volatility of the USDJPY price action.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USD/JPY H4 chart, the price remains within a well-defined bearish channel. A recent bullish breakout attempt failed to hold above the channel’s upper boundary, and the USD-JPY’s price has now re-entered the structure, positioning itself in the upper half but still below key resistance levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is struggling against a descending trendline (marked in red), indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is shifting downward, with the signal and MACD lines converging, suggesting an imminent bearish wave. Given these technical indicators, the most probable price action scenario involves continued downward movement, with the lower boundary of the bearish channel serving as the next key target.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Outlook

BTCUSD, commonly known as "Bitcoin-Dollar," is the most widely traded cryptocurrency forex pair, representing Bitcoin against the US Dollar. As a highly volatile asset, BTCUSD is influenced by macroeconomic events, institutional adoption, and Federal Reserve monetary policies. Today’s key economic events include speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials, such as Governor Philip Jefferson, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who may provide insights into future monetary policies. If their remarks are hawkish, indicating tighter monetary policies, it could strengthen the USD and put downward pressure on BTCUSD. Additionally, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Crude Oil Inventories reports may further drive volatility. Given the market's sensitivity to Fed policy signals, traders should monitor these events closely to anticipate BTCUSD price action.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The BTCUSD H4 chart shows the price reacting at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level around $97,008, which aligns with a significant support zone near $98,000. This level has been tested multiple times, and the latest two bearish candles suggest growing selling momentum. If the $98,000 - $97,000 support area fails to hold, BTCUSD could see a deeper decline toward the $95,684 Fibonacci support level. Conversely, if buyers step in, we may see a rebound toward the $99,340 (0.5 Fib) and $101,671 (0.382 Fib) resistance zones. The Parabolic SAR has recently flipped bullish, with the last 10 dots positioned below the price, signaling a potential reversal if support holds. However, the bearish price action and market momentum indicate that a breakdown is possible. Traders should closely watch price action at $98,000 - $97,000 to confirm whether it remains a strong support or breaks, leading to further downside.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

Gold Bullish Trend Holds Above Ichimoku Cloud

Gold (XAU/USD), often referred to as the "yellow metal," is a globally recognized safe-haven asset and a key player in the commodities market. Traders and investors closely monitor gold's price movements, particularly in response to economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and central bank policies. Today, multiple speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, and Christopher Waller, are expected to provide critical insights into future monetary policy. If their tone leans hawkish, reinforcing the strong USD narrative, gold may face downward pressure. Additionally, jobless claims data and labor cost reports will influence market sentiment; stronger-than-expected employment and wage growth could heighten Fed rate hike expectations, limiting gold's upside. Conversely, weaker labor data or dovish Fed commentary may support gold prices, as investors seek safer assets amid economic uncertainty.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Gold has recently reached a new all-time high (ATH) but is now experiencing a minor retracement, forming two consecutive bearish candles on the H4 chart while still trading above the Ichimoku green cloud—indicating an ongoing bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 68.88, approaching overbought territory, suggesting that gold may be temporarily overextended before continuing its rally. Price action suggests that the 2,827 - 2,803 support zone will be crucial; if gold price holds above this range, bulls may regain control, leading to another push higher. However, a break below the Ichimoku cloud could indicate a deeper correction, with potential downside risk before a trend continuation. Traders should watch price action behavior around key support and resistance zones, along with USD-driven fundamentals, for the next major move.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

EURUSD Daily Chart Technical Forecast and Trading Strategy

The EUR/USD, commonly known as the "Fiber," is the most traded currency pair in the forex market, representing the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar. Due to its high liquidity and volatility, it attracts traders globally, reacting sharply to economic indicators from both the Eurozone and the United States. As investors assess macroeconomic conditions, monetary policies from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) play a crucial role in the pair's price action. Today's upcoming economic news for EUR/USD will be a major driver of volatility. Key reports such as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Initial Jobless Claims, and Eurozone Retail Sales will dictate the pair's direction. A stronger-than-expected NFP report could boost the USD, pushing EURUSD lower, while weaker data might fuel a bullish reaction in favor of the Euro. Additionally, the ECB’s stance on monetary tightening, combined with the Federal Reserve’s signals on rate hikes or potential cuts, will influence sentiment. If inflation concerns persist in the Eurozone, the ECB might adopt a hawkish stance, supporting the Euro, whereas dovish comments from Fed officials could weaken the Dollar, driving EUR-USD higher.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The EUR/USD H4 chart presents a mixed technical outlook with key indicators providing crucial signals. The Ichimoku Cloud suggests a resistance zone, as the Leading Span B line is moving horizontally, indicating uncertainty. Despite the fact that the price remains below the cloud, the last three candles have been bullish, suggesting a potential upward push toward the cloud. The 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level is acting as a support after the price successfully breached it, indicating a solid base for further gains. However, EUR USD is currently facing resistance at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which could be a crucial test for bullish momentum. If buyers manage to break above this level, the price could extend its gains toward the 0.236 Fibonacci level, around 1.0458. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 53-54, signaling moderate bullish momentum but not yet in overbought territory. If RSI continues to rise above 60, it could confirm further bullish momentum, increasing the chances of a breakout above the current resistance levels.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

USDJPY Bearish Trend and Possible Price Correction

The USD/JPY, often referred to as the "Ninja," is one of the most actively traded forex pairs, representing the strength of the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. This pair is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors, central bank policies, and risk sentiment in global markets.
From a fundamental perspective, the USD JPY is currently driven by upcoming economic news from both the US and Japan. The latest release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland on inflation expectations will provide insights into how business managers forecast future price changes. A higher-than-expected outcome may strengthen the USD, as rising inflation expectations could push the Federal Reserve toward maintaining a hawkish stance. On the JPY side, the Bank of Japan’s bank loan data and the Adjusted Current Account from the Ministry of Finance will impact the yen. Stronger loan growth signals economic confidence, while a rising current account surplus would indicate stronger demand for JPY. If Japan’s trade and consumer sentiment data improve, it may provide support to the JPY, reinforcing its strength against the USD.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USDJPY H4 chart, the Ichimoku Cloud and RSI indicators suggest a continuation of the bearish trend that has been in play since January 10th, 2025. The price has declined steadily from the 0 Fibonacci level down to the 0.786 Fib retracement, which is currently acting as a key support level. Notably, the latest H4 candle is green and positive, indicating that the price may be attempting a short-term correction after touching this key support zone. Additionally, the RSI-based Moving Average (MA) has crossed above the RSI blue line, signaling a potential reversal or consolidation. The RSI value remains in the lower range, hinting at oversold conditions, which could lead to a temporary retracement. However, the price is still trading below the Ichimoku cloud, confirming that the overall trend remains bearish unless a breakout above the cloud occurs.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

USD/CAD H4 Technical and fundamental Outlook

The USD/CAD currency pair, commonly known as the "Loonie" due to the loon bird depicted on the Canadian one-dollar coin, represents the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar. As of today, key economic events are poised to influence this pair. At 3:30 PM, Canada's Building Permits data is scheduled for release, with a forecasted increase of 1.6% compared to the previous month's decline of 5.9%. A positive deviation could bolster the Canadian dollar, potentially leading to a decrease in the USD CAD rate. Later, at 5:00 PM, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's testimony is anticipated. Hawkish remarks may strengthen the U.S. dollar, while dovish comments could exert downward pressure. Traders should monitor these events closely, as they are likely to induce volatility in the USDCAD forex market.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USD/CAD H4 chart reveals that the price is currently situated between a significant support zone (highlighted in green) and a strong resistance area. The 100-period Moving Average (MA) is positioned above the current price, indicating a prevailing bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is attempting to break above the 50 level, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. If the price fails to hold above the established support zone, a substantial bearish wave could ensue. Conversely, a successful breach of the resistance zone and the 100-period MA, accompanied by an RSI move above 50, may signal a bullish reversal. Traders should exercise caution and await confirmation before making trading decisions, as the USD-CAD price action remains at a critical juncture.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

EUR/GBP Overview and Fundamental Analysis

The EUR-GBP forex pair, often referred to as the "Eurosterling," represents the exchange rate between the Euro and the British Pound. This currency pair is commonly traded in the global forex market, with fluctuations often driven by the economic conditions of the Eurozone and the UK. Today, the focus is on the economic releases, such as Germany's Bund Auction results, the speech by Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, and the Industrial Output data from the Eurozone. Traders will closely monitor Nagel's speech, as it could hint at future monetary policy decisions from the ECB, particularly given the recent emphasis on inflation and interest rate trajectories. Additionally, industrial production figures out of the Eurozone could provide insights into the region's economic growth, potentially impacting the direction of EUR GBP. A stronger-than-expected economic outlook for the Eurozone could support the Euro, while dovish rhetoric from the ECB or weaker economic data could weigh on EURGBP.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Looking at the EUR/GBP H4 chart, the price action reveals that after breaking the previous downtrend line and pulling back to it, the price failed to break the next resistance trend line on its first attempt. Currently, the price sits at a longer-term support zone, supported by both the support trend line and the EMA 22, suggesting that a classic triangle pattern may be forming. The potential for a breakout from this triangle to the upside is increased by the two doji candles that appeared, signaling indecision in the market and a possible change in trend. The EMA 22 is neutral, indicating that no strong directional momentum is present at the moment. The MACD, however, appears to be showing a slight bullish crossover, which supports the idea that the price may soon experience an upward breakout if the resistance trend line is breached.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.


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[Capitalcore]

Gold Price Analysis Bulls Push XAUUSD Near ATH

Gold (XAU/USD), often referred to as the "safe-haven asset" or "yellow metal," remains a key instrument in forex trading, closely monitored by investors for its reaction to economic data, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties. With its inverse correlation to the US dollar and bond yields, gold often serves as a hedge against inflation and market volatility. Today, gold traders are closely watching key economic events that could drive price action. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI reports will indicate inflationary trends, directly influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations. Additionally, a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on stablecoins could hint at monetary policy sentiment, affecting USD strength. President Donald Trump’s press conference might introduce economic policy shifts, further impacting market risk sentiment. If PPI data exceeds forecasts, it may strengthen the USD, applying downward pressure on gold. Conversely, weaker-than-expected inflation figures may support further gold gains. Moreover, jobless claims data and the 30-year Treasury auction could impact market liquidity and investor risk appetite, reinforcing XAU/USD volatility.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The price of gold (XAU/USD) remains in a strong bullish trend, hovering near its recent all-time high (ATH). After experiencing a slight retracement, indicated by a series of red candles, the latest three candles have turned positive, reflecting renewed buying momentum. The Ichimoku Cloud remains green, and price action is well above the cloud, mirroring last month's bullish trend and reinforcing the ongoing upward trajectory.
Additionally, the RSI indicator is trending higher, with the RSI line approaching the RSI moving average (MA) line, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. If the RSI breaks above the MA line, it could confirm further upside movement. Fibonacci retracement levels highlight key resistance near $2,941, while support is identified around $2,747 (0.5 level). If gold maintains its bullish momentum above these critical levels, a continuation towards new highs remains likely. However, any stronger-than-expected USD-related economic data could cause temporary pullbacks before another potential bullish move.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

NZDUSD Price Action and Fibonacci Levels

The NZDUSD, commonly known as the "Kiwi", is a major forex pair influenced by economic policies, commodity prices, and risk sentiment. It often reflects global trade dynamics, given New Zealand’s strong ties to commodity exports and the USD’s role as the world's reserve currency. Today, the NZDUSD pair faces key fundamental drivers as the U.S. Retail Sales Ex Autos, Advance Retail Sales, Import Price Index, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Industrial Production reports are set to be released. A higher-than-expected retail sales figure would indicate strong consumer spending, boosting the USD and adding downside pressure on NZD/USD. Conversely, New Zealand’s Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and Food Price Index (FPI) could provide some relief if they signal economic resilience. However, with recent USD strength supported by economic stability and inflation concerns, the Kiwi remains vulnerable to further declines unless U.S. data disappoints or the Fed signals a dovish shift.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
NZDUSD is currently at its lowest price since October 2022, undergoing a correction phase with bullish candles pushing above the Ichimoku cloud. The 0.236 Fibonacci level is the first key resistance zone, and a breakout could open the path toward the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. However, the Ichimoku cloud has thinned, indicating potential weakness in the bullish move. Williams %R is near oversold conditions, suggesting a possible rebound, but confirmation is needed. If the NZD USD price fails to sustain above the cloud, a breakdown below 0.5615 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) could lead to further downside pressure, reinforcing the bearish trend.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

Nikkei Fundamental and Price Action Analysis

JAP_MAR25, commonly referred to as the Nikkei 225 Futures (March 2025 Contract) serves as a critical barometer for Japan’s stock market, reflecting economic sentiment and global risk appetite. Today's economic releases, including Japan's GDP Deflator, Real GDP, Industrial Production, and Tertiary Industry Activity Index, will significantly impact market direction. A higher-than-forecast GDP deflator and real GDP would strengthen the yen and support equity markets, while weak production and service sector data could hint at economic sluggishness, possibly leading to increased market volatility. With the next GDP and production data releases scheduled in mid-March and May, today's figures will set the tone for near-term sentiment, influencing investor confidence in Japanese equities.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
After breaking the downtrend resistance line, JAP_MAR25 has established an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. Currently, the price is sitting on the support line, where a bullish engulfing candle and an inside bar (pin bar) pattern suggest a potential continuation of the uptrend. Should the support hold, the price may attempt another breakout towards the resistance zone ahead, which has previously acted as a supply area. However, if the trendline support fails, the first downside target could be the stronger, long-term support zone below, providing a key decision point for price action traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 52, indicating a neutral stance but with potential upside momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram shows weakening bullish momentum, and a bearish crossover may emerge if selling pressure increases. This technical setup suggests that while the uptrend is still intact, traders should closely monitor price action at the support level before committing to new positions.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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