Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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EUR / USD
1.09666
USD / JPY
107.152
GBP / USD
1.24005
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0.96550
USD / CAD
1.41921
EUR / JPY
117.510
AUD / USD
0.60653

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KostiaForexMart

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EUR/USD. January 17, 2020 – Euro is down to 1.11

The Euro moved lower to 1.1100 after the release of data on retail sales in the United States and the business activity index from the Philadelphia Fed. The growth of the first indicator remained at the level of 0.3% m/m, and business activity increased from 2.4 to 17.0.

Together with that, the European currency was pressured today by data on inflation in Europe. The growth rate of consumer prices in the Eurozone accelerated to 1.3%, and in all EU countries – to 1,6%.

An important event that can influence the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair next week will be the ECB meeting. If the regulator's rhetoric turns out to be tougher than at the end of last year, the Euro will receive significant support and will be able to return to the 1.1200 area.
 
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EUR/USD. January 20, 2020 – Euro started to decline again

The euro has been declining for the third week in a row. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1080. However, experts believe that soon the European currency will be able to return to the medium-term ascending channel, which started from the beginning of December 2019.

The outflow of capital to the stock market may contribute to the growth of the currency, caused by the decline in tension in trade relations between the US and China after the conclusion of the first phase trade agreement last week.

This week, you should pay attention to the Index of sentiments in the business environment of Germany (01.21). Analysts predict a decline from 10.7 to 4.3 points, which may slightly weaken the euro. On Thursday, the ECB will unveil its decision on the interest rate and hold a press conference with the leadership of the European regulator. On Friday, market attention will be attracted by a series of publications of estimated indicators of business activity both in Germany and in the eurozone as a whole.

Today will be a calm day, as US sites are closed due to the celebration of Martin Luther King National Day.
 

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EUR/USD. January 21, 2020 – Euro strengthens after ZEW data release

The euro started to grow again, breaking the 1.1100 mark. Today, amid a large number of reports about the spread of the new coronavirus in China, all risky assets have come under pressure.

During the day, the euro will continue its moderate strengthening, having received support after the publication of the index of economic expectations from ZEW in Germany in January. The indicator unexpectedly increased significantly – to the level of 26.7 points from 10.7. Analysts had expected the index to rise to only 15.0 points. Fresh data peaked since July 2015.
 

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EUR/USD. January 22, 2020 – Euro below 1.11 under the pressure of several factors

The US dollar started to rise today, receiving support after the American president's statement about the imminent start of negotiations with China on the second stage of the trade deal. In addition, Trump said that the new budget of the country is planning an amendment to reduce taxes on the middle class, which will be able to support the growth of the American economy. As a result, the EUR/USD pair fell to the level of 1.1075.

Yesterday, however, the Euro made attempts to grow after the publication of the ZEW economic expectations index in Germany, which rose to 26.7 – the highest level since 2015. In addition to pressure from the strengthening dollar, the euro also received a portion of the negativity after another statement by D. Trump. The American president said that the United States can immediately impose duties on imports of European cars and restrictive measures on goods from France, if the parties do not reach a trade agreement in the near future.

Thus, today the European currency will be trading below the level of 1.11.
 

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EUR/USD. January 23, 2020 – Euro is trading in the range of 1.1070-1.1100

Sentiments at global sites continue to deteriorate amid further reports of the spread of coronavirus in China. Chinese authorities have already closed the exit from Wuhan, which is the city-epicenter of the disease.

Thus, the euro remains below the level of 1.11. At the same time, the dollar was supported by D. Trump's reports that a plan to lower taxes on the middle-classed Americans will be prepared over the next 90 days.

Today, attention should be paid to the ECB meeting and the press conference of the head of the regulator K. Lagarde. Market participants expect that the rate will be maintained at -0.5%, and Lagarde will present the announcement of a revision of the regulator’s long-term monetary strategy. In anticipation of this event, the EUR/USD pair will trade in the range of 1.1070-1.1100.
 

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USD/CAD. January 24, 2020 – Looney fell after a meeting of the Bank of Canada

Yesterday, the USD/CAD pair managed to grow to the level of 1.3170, but today the Canadian currency is showing some strengthening to 1.3130. The loony weakened after the announcement of the results of the Bank of Canada meeting. The regulator decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, noting that a decrease in the future is possible if the pace of economic recovery continues to slow down.

In addition, the Central Bank lowered its forecast for economic growth in the IV quarter to 0.3% against 1.3%, which was forecasted in October.

Additional pressure on the «Canadian» was provided by data on the consumer price index, according to which inflation in Canada in December remained unchanged at 2.2%. The situation in the oil market also does not give optimism. Oil quotes also continue to decline amid the threat of the spread of coronavirus from China around the world.
 

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EUR/USD. January 27, 2020 – Euro declines to 1.10

The sentiments on global sites remains negative due to the further spread of coronavirus in China. To date, nearly 3,000 cases have been reported in China, and 80 cases have already been fatal. As a result, the pair EUR/USD fell to the level of 1.1015. Pressure on the euro had Friday's data on business PMI in the eurozone. Despite the fact that the indicator turned out to be better than expected (47.8 vs 46.8), it still remains below 50 points, which indicates a further reduction in business activity in the EU manufacturing sector.

This week, attention should be paid to the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on Wednesday (January 29). Analysts predict that the rate will remain unchanged. At the same time, the regulator can indicate its policy on injecting dollar liquidity into the system.

If the Fed expresses its readiness to continue purchasing treasury bills, this could support risky assets and limit negative market sentiment. Today, during the day, the euro will continue to fluctuate near the level of 1.10.
 

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GBP/USD. January 28, 2020 – Sterling drops to 1.30

The pound continues to decline actively, having approached the level of 1.30. This week is very important for the British currency – on Thursday a meeting of the Bank of England will take place, at which the regulator can soften its monetary policy.

In addition, January 31 is the date of Brexit, when the UK will officially cease to be part of the European Union. This event could lead to increased market volatility.

Additional pressure on the sterling is provided by the general strengthening of the US dollar, which has received support, as investors tend to invest in less risky assets amid the spread of concerns about the Chinese coronavirus.
 

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EUR/USD. January 29, 2020 – Euro remains in the area of local lows 1.10

The sentiment in global markets is gradually recovering amid a decrease in investor anxiety about the further spread of the Chinese coronavirus. Experts note that the spread of infection outside of China is extremely slow, which returns the interest to risky assets.

However, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade at the low of November nearby 1.1000. Today we should pay attention to the meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Markets expect Fed to keep rates unchanged at the level of 1,75%. At the same time, the US regulator can confirm its readiness to continue purchasing treasury bills to maintain dollar liquidity in the system. And this can support the entire block of risky assets and put some pressure on the dollar in the evening.
 

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Brent/USD. January 30, 2020

Oil quotes again began to decline, moving in line with all risky assets. The current Brent quote is $57.60 per barrel. The asset again was under pressure of increased concerns about the further spread of coronavirus from China. Information that the current epidemic could cause global damage to the Chinese economy in the I quarter of 2020 also puts pressure on Brent. As a result, concerns about the demand for raw materials dominate the oil market.

Additional pressure on the oil rate was provided by data from the US Department of Energy, refuting preliminary data from the API. The agency reported an increase in crude oil reserves in the country of 3.5 million barrels, while a report from the API reflected a decrease in reserves of more than 4 million barrels. Today, oil will continue to decline under the pressure of a negative external background.
 
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