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KostiaForexMart

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 1, 2019

Volatility is present early this week following the previous range-bound trading of the various instruments in the market in the background of ongoing US-Sino trade talks. News on tariff and restriction to Huawei telecom company pushed the equity markets higher and pressured the dollar. Although, this may not last long.

Moreover, pessimistic forecasts of several fundamental data such as the Manufacturing PMI from European countries will further weigh on the common currency. This is in line with the global economic situation in China and Japan, as well as other Asian countries.

The euro major pair has made a significant breakdown today. Other major pairs also experienced such event as seems like a reversal in short-term. However, we should take note of the 200-MA, which is being tested by the US dollar index that could trigger the pair to decline.

Previously, the center of interest was on the fall of the pair at the level of 1.1347. Aside from it being the resistance level, it had a confluence on the 200-MA on the daily and weekly chart.

As for the support, there were several attempts until it broke down earlier this day, which can become the resistance level. Staying on the levels below could induce a correction to the pair and likely to rise higher than 1.1385, which will be favorable for the EUR/USD bulls.

For now, we can expect strong support at 1.1305 with confluence to the 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. Overall, the short-term gives a bearish tone and a breakout to 1.1385 would confirm the continuation of the previously bullish sentiment in the markets.
 
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 2, 2019

The euro major pair has been the top currency pair for the week so far. Also, the dollar is above the Swiss franc than other major currency pairs while it is not doing well for the Canadian dollar.

The EUR/USD decline for this week is mainly due to a stronger dollar, following the trade news between China and the US. Also, it seems that the Fed speeches have also limited the earlier rally of the pair in the second half of June.

Earlier this week, the pair is gaining a downward momentum and dropped below the significant confluence close to support of 1.1350, marking the 200-MA. At the same time, the US dollar index was found to have reached the 200-MA. This opens the opportunity to short the dollar but this is still not yet confirmed.

The next support level will probably at 1.1365 and gave a significant amount of resistance in the past. Over this area, there is a chance for testing the support level of 1.1237, where there is a lot of confluence and also likely to hold buyers. Nonetheless, the pair is far from plunging lower but we can rely on selling in times of rallies for short-term. The trend will likely go up and the present decline may offer an opportunity for a long trade.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 3, 2019

This week began with a decline and the momentum of the EUR/USD pair may have lost. The pair closed on a flat after a failed rally higher than the level of 1.1300. The most recent news on the trade truce between the US and China is the root of strength for the dollar but this may not move steadily.

Another important factor is the gold prices as it moves relative to the economic developments in the US. The yellow metal almost broke down to fresh six year-high that could mean that the increase of the dollar may be almost over.

Today, data from ADP on employment is expected which will give a hint on the US labor market. Thursday is a holiday and this can bring volatility after the closing of the European session.

The indicator was seen at the level of 1.1260 and close to the 100-MA. A strong confluence is possible around 1.1265, which can become resistance and was the peak in the month of May. This kept the pair lower after a few tries and was successfully broken at the beginning of June.

Reaching the level upward to 1.1300 can become difficult. A horizontal level can be at 1.1305 on the daily chart. However, looking at it, a steady move to 1.1300 is needed by bulls.

On the other end, a breakdown lower than the support confluence with the next target at the horizontal level of 1.1237, which is also where the rising channel moves downward since the low level in May.

Nonetheless, the US jobs data to be released today and on Friday may cause a bullish reversal. At the same time, trading may be thin given that tomorrow is a holiday.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 4, 2019

The EUR/USD pair may move close to the bottom and the present bounce off is due to the trade talks between China and the US on the weekend. In turn, this resulted in a correlation across the financial markets.

The 10-year Treasury yields rallied from 2% while gold prices dropped lower than $1400 following a breakout in the previous week. The equity market is under pressure given that the S&P 500 drops from the resistance on the longer timeframe. It is not surprising that the dollar index bounced off more than the 200-DMA.

A divergence between the dollar and other trading instruments has important in considering the trading since the dollar has not undergone a reversal like other assets. Yet, it is also not that logical to expect the euro major pair will further go down present the given fundamental event even looking at how aggressive the market sets in easing in July. Nonetheless, the pair seems to have been trading for just about 1.5% from the multi-year lows.

There is significant confluence in the support close to the trading area which is at the 100-MA and the lower bound channel at 1.1264.

Bull traders will meet an obstruction at 1.1305, which pushed the pair lower yesterday.

The data of NFP on Friday will bring in some volatility to the pair. For now, the pair will likely to continue in consolidating within the range. Support is expected to be close to 1.1264 and the markets are probably not assured with the short-term trade war truce.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 5, 2019

Analysts are looking hoping for growth in the labor market after it failed to meet expectations of previous month’s reading. The job report for today will determine the course of the Fed in July since the strength of labor will have a significant role in the action of Fed. Hence, an exceeding report can result for an easing or the other way around.

The Euro major pair is in the important situation prior to the release of the jobs report given that there is downward confluence on the support. For the past couple of days, the pair was seen consolidating above.

In particular, there is a horizontal level at 1.1264, which held the pair twice below in May. The 100-MA was close around this area enough for a confluence.

Furthermore, there is a support as it bounces below in the rising channel from previous lows in late May. Moreover, there is a 61.8% retracement found from middle of June lows, as well in the 50% retracement from May lows close to the level of 1.1264.


Given the confluence below on the support level, the results for NFP data has to come out with positive results in order for the EUR/USD pair to close below. The data will have a major impact on short-term trend. Yet, the resistance above keeps the pair lower at the beginning of the week. A bullish breakout will confirm the beginning of trend reversal.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 9, 2019

The US dollar’s performance surpassed expectations at the beginning of the week as it pushes the price to lows not since the middle of June. When the rate cut is revised, this may being a surge in the pair.

Yesterday, the psychological level is at 1.1888, which was both a support and resistance in the past. Recently, the level was kept higher in the month of June. The pair tried to approach the level early this morning and even look for a breakout below for a short while. It could prompt stops below the mid-level low in June.

If the breakout holds, the next target for support will likely be around 1.1135. The major support is centered at 1.1188. However, this have minimal chances before the Fed rhetoric, which is anticipated to influence the movement of the pair in the next few days. At the same time, this will confirm the positioning of the central bank. Overall, it is important to be heedful in trading given this background.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 12, 2019

Forecast for consumer prices shows a higher increase in June. The most recent report showed a growth of 0.1 for the month CPI and 0.3% for the Core CPI. Overall, the figures have exceeded expectations.

Rising inflation may affect the rally of the euro major pair given that the weaker dollar was driven this week by expectations on monetary policy easing.

The dollar index (DXY) dropped more than half of the percent from the most recent high amid the rhetorics of Powell. On yesterday’s CPI data, the index rose and was able to close unchanged.

A Doji pattern was also seen on the euro major pair, which shows some exhaustion. This follows the possibility that the CPI data may hinder the upward movement of the pair, at least for short-term. Along with the Doji pattern, the pair closed below the 100-MA and was unsuccessful to break higher than the indicator, which will not be favorable for the bulls. As of the moment, the price is trading beyond it. The upward movement seems to be limited by the resistance of 1.1265 so far.

The pair has to maintain a breakthrough above 1.1280 in order to confirm the ascending movement here. This will negatively affect yesterday’s exhaustion candle. On the other end, if the pair closes once again below the 100-MA, traders can expect for the weakened state at the beginning of next week.

It may not be easy to continue the recovery of the pair but as stated, there is some strong resistance at 1.1305on the 4-hour chart and be limited around 1.1265. There is also a chance for the pair to retreat to the horizontal level of 1.1237 below.

There is a minimal chance for the euro major pair to recover in the background of a few fundamental news and technical limitations to limit the pair's move to go higher. The pair is also likely to close in relation to the 100-MA, which would have a big impact on next week’s trading.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 16, 2019

Looking back at what happened last week, the dollar had gone weaker after Fed chair became more dovish than anticipated. However, with the presence of resistance on the upside and range support, the EUR/USD pair could stay range-bound.

Nonetheless, the market will monitor the upcoming data to assess the probability of Fed easing at the end of the month. The highest impact will probably be the initial release of the second quarter of GDP. Hence, the momentum in the euro and other currency pairs paired with greenback will probably slow down.

As we can see, the impact of Powell rhetorics will probably lessen this week, considering that the future markets will prepare to set the price after aggressive easing at the end of the month. Meanwhile, the likelihood of rate cut by 50 basis points grew to 3 from 1.

The euro major pair was previously seen testing the confluence of support at 1.1237 and the 50-MA.

It seems that there is a lot of trading at the start of this week. However, it less likely to break lower and at the same time, thinking that the top resistance is opposing the dollar index.

Overall, volatility may be a bit slow prior to the release of data, which will have a say to the chances of a rate cut. In the short-term, a rally is probable at 1.1265 with the presence of sellers.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 17, 2019

Markets are still not sure on how the Fed will be on the next meeting scheduled at the end of the month. Rhetorics from Fed member, Evans has triggered a deep decline last week by half a percent at the end of the year. Investors are following the data releases closely, concerned by the possibility of the ECB to follow the Fed in monetary easing.

Yesterday, the euro major pair dropped below the support of 1.1237. Consequently, the pair broke to the range which was sustained for almost a week. The fall of the trend opened the path to the psychological handle of 1.1200 and further below seems attractive.

The support of 1.1188 remained higher in the middle of June, which then resulted to a rally above 1.1400. In turn, this will be the border limit for the EUR/USD bulls.

In the short-term, traders will likely to meet resistance to the level of 1.1237, which was the lower border in the previous range. It may push the pair above 1.1265 to make it attractive for bulls. After a break in the range, bears have taken over for short-period of time.

After the inflation headline, the euro major pair rose slightly from support with an upward resistance met at 1.1237 as mentioned earlier. The next downward level will probably 1.1188 to be significant.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 18, 2019

A weakened dollar influenced a recovery rally from the euro major pair. With the market expected to have an aggressive easing, it seems that the push is not likely to reach a higher break.

Moreover, we have to keep in mind the bullish engulfing candle in DXY following optimistic retail sales on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the US dollar index declines for the second successive trading hours after the sharp increase of retail sales.

The EUR/USD pair tests the horizontal level of 1.1237. So far, the trend moves with an upward direction for the week so far. An important confluence on the resistance should also be noted.

At the same time, a confluence to 1.1245 with the 50- and 100-MA, which was the peak for the day so far. Below, the 1.1200 handle keeps the pair higher and remains major support in the short-term.

For the week, there is no market data anticipated for the week, unless a headline comes out to influence the market. Hence, a drop in volatility is likely.

Overall, even if the greenback weakens today, the euro major pair may have less trading. At the beginning of the day, the common currency is in a flat state. Meanwhile, the Sterling pound has been the strongest contender as the UK sales on retail push the pair higher.
 
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