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KostiaForexMart

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 7, 2019

The euro major pair move forward on Thursday amid the slight dovish less the expectation ECB meeting. It was seen to be trading in a tight range before tha Non-farm payroll data to be released later this day.

The ECB data mentioned easing during yesterday’s meeting but not sufficient for the market, which resulted in a rally in the euro major pair.

To be more precise, Draghi adjusted lower the expected rate increase and mentioned TLTRO III.

Fed chair Powell mentioned the tendency for a subdued inflation in the early days of the week. A few drops in inflation would have an impact on the monetary policy if this happens in a more steady pace.

The ECB meeting shook the market expectations on central bank. For now, inflation in the euro is expected or at least until the next meeting.

The EUR/USD pair encounters some strong resistance as it directs its attention to the level of 1.1260. Also, the 100-MA should be given attention as their is confluence with the decline of the Fibonacci just above it.

The euro major pair was sustained higher at the horizontal level of 1.1260 in the early European trading hours. Moreover, the NFP did not show a lot volatility recently. I anticipate for the pair to try and defend the level of 1.1294. A support level to 1.1213 is open on a drop.

The ECB meetings stands to keep the euro firm in the short-term. Hence, it also open opportunities in cross currency pairs. A break higher than 1.1318 would confirm the upward movement.
 
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 11, 2019

Last week, the Fed monetary policy is anticipated to have a dovish sentiment while the ECB has a strong stance about the economic outlook on the common currency.

The main concern of the Fed is inflation as the decline in inflation will likely have a negative impact, which will then prompt the Fed to loosen their policies.

Weak inflation would work well with the purpose and push the strengthening of the euro. The market already anticipates and prepares for the probable Fed easing. Nonetheless, there is a risk accompanied by inflation, which is why we can expect the euro major pair to have a hard time maintaining upward momentum before the release of economic data.

On the technical outlook, the pair looks like having a hard time in the horizontal resistance around 1.1318, which has been significant resistance in April and was a support for some time.

Initially, the pair testing the opening of the North American session. Thus, the traders during the early European session tried to raise the price higher, however, it was a failed attempt.

Therefore, we can consider the level of 1.1318 as psychological level in the short-term. There is a chance for an increase in a condition that the pair closes above the said level on the 4-hour chart. Otherwise, it will maintain its range-bound trading.

Meanwhile, the pair has been moving higher during the opening on the hourly chart of the Monday North American session. There is not much momentum to raise higher and a flag pattern is not confirmed.

On the other hand, the level of 1.1294 can become resistance and support. This just shows the 38.2 Fibonacci compared to the year’s high to low. Thus, there is a chance for the pair to drop lower than the level but there is a probability for the pair to reach around 1.1280. There is not much volatility expected prior to the publication of US inflation.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 13, 2019

The result of CPI data yesterday did not push the EUR/USD to move higher than the 200-MA (weekly) as it was seen below prior to the release. Hence, the traders are likely to focus on the US retail report scheduled on Friday.

The final CPI data was shown to have increased by 0.2%, meeting the expectations. The unemployment data from Italy also resulted as anticipated in the first quarter of the year. Yet, these data did not have a big impact on the exchange rates.

For this week, the 200-MA (weekly) presents to be a difficulty. Moreover, the pair is trading importantly around the indicator for a year.

The pair has tested the August level last year, which was seen to move above it for a few months until it broke down in March. As of recently, the sellers were successful in the rally, which can make trading quite difficult.

The pattern gives a bearish sentiment on the hourly chart. Soon after the inflation data yesterday, the euro major pair broke lower and the pair reached 1.1260. The support level of 1.1280 also gives psychological significance. The 100-MA is also shown to be converging to the horizontal level.

On the 4-hour chart, the price level of 1.1280 reflects significance given the ascending channel from the May low at the same area.

Given the decline, the downturn of the price is expected to move momentarily with the psychological levels at 1.1280 and 1.1260. Given the confluence in the support region, there is a possibility not to reach the next target despite the presence of a flag pattern. Traders may have difficulty in breaking the resistance from the 200-MA.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 14, 2019

The euro major pair dropped to a range lower than 1.1280 prior to the release of the US retail sales data. It is likely that markets will focus on the Fed more than the retail sales. There is an important shit in expectations after the analysts noted three rate cuts for the year.

The meeting scheduled next week will determine the policymakers course of action. Meanwhile, the markets are hoping for a signal on their next move, even earlier than the July meeting. Thus, the rally of the EUR/USD was due to the shift. If this is confirmed, then there is a chance for an upward movement.

There is a high probability that the markets will look for a chance to cell the dollar after the initial reaction in the results of the retail sales prior to the Fed meeting.

The previous bear flag pattern in yesterday’s report is still significant with the lower target at 1.1260 as the euro major pair heads below with low momentum. Nonetheless, it is still not too far from the target.

Yet, traders should monitor the level of 1.1280 in the US trading hours. The market tries to push it higher during the early European session but the rally was not sufficient to be sustained.

The pair stays range-bound on the 4-hour chart. Traders should also get ready to have some volatility in the US session, although it will not be much given that its Friday.

It is also important to note that a made a breakthrough to the target level of 1.1260 moves to a bearish confluence with a resistance level that is important last week. Hence, there is a possibility to have a retest to defend this area. A break higher than 1.1280 can open chances for an uptrend while the upcoming Fed meeting next week keep the bids for the pair at bay.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 17, 2019

The euro major pair is consolidating close to the 200-MA on the 4-hour chart after its recent drop on Friday. Nonetheless, the pair has a possibility to bounce upward.

There was a boost for the pair to move lower due to the US retail sales data which strengthened the dollar. It was not able to hold the level as high as 1.1343 at the beginning of the week even to 1.1200 after the release.

The Fed meeting is anticipated to be dovish that makes the market uncertain if the rate cut will push through, although there is a chance for the price to be reduced by as much as 20% at the beginning of the European session.

On the one hand, the futures market did not turn hawkish after the retail sales, as it simply means an extended rate cut took place earlier than anticipated. The possibility of another two rate cuts in the past meeting is still on the plate.

There is not much expected in the economic calendar except for the speech of Draghi today and tomorrow. Even so, the previous one did not really have an impact on the market. Thus, there might also be no reaction this week.

Although, a short surge in volatility could take place due to the expected inflation data from the euro.

There is a horizontal support level at 1.1204 on the 4-hour chart. This level plays an important role, considering the 1.12 level and the 200-MA close to it. A bounce off may take place when the decline fades this week. There was an important rally in late May that supports the decline in the early June.

There is a strong downward impetus on the hourly chart, considering that there was a bear pattern last week while aiming for 1.1260. When the pair reaches this figure, there is support found below on the descending channel.

Moreover, since the pair strengthened after the release of the retail sales, it implies the strong presence of sellers and they are determined to take the lead. Hence, recovery is not far from happening at the moment.

We can expect resistance at 1.1237 in the next trading session and a confluence with 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. If this succeeds, it opens the possibility of the pair to reach the resistance of 1.1260. Any significant changes may occur after the Fed meeting and for now, trading promotes a range-bound movement.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 18, 2019

After Draghi’s speech, the euro major pair lost 50 pips immediately after an hour, which shows the markets reacted strongly to it.

The euro major pair dropped to some significant levels. Initially, it dropped below the 100- and 200-MA on the 4-hour chart. But then, it didn’t succeed to hold above an important horizontal level of 1.1204, which confluence with the 61.8% from the June low. Moreover, the 200-MA declines close on the 4-hour chart.

A breakout in the important levels would mean the sellers are dominating the trend. The next support level will likely drop to 1.1176, which was previously the support and the March low.

A breakdown towards the psychological level of 1.1200 is important and opens the possibility to reach as low as 1.1176. On the other end, the resistance level will likely be at 1.1204. Fundamentally, the Fed meeting will play a major role tomorrow and could restrict the downward movement of the pair today.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 20, 2019

The EUR/USD trend will be relative to trader’s sentiment to the level of 1.1307 with an upward momentum. If the price stayed over the level of 1.1318, this would confirm the upward trend. However, there is a chance for the pair to shift downward if they did not succeed to reach the support 50% at 1.1270.

The common currency is trading above the US dollar and adjust with the chances of a rate cut in July, influenced by a dovish monetary policy of Fed and rhetorics by Fed chair, Jerome Powell. The Fed fund futures also shows that traders places their bets on rate cuts for the months of July, September and December.

The euro major pair is trading slightly above the level when the ECB President Draghi expressed his dovish sentiments on Tuesday. Hence, it means that markets will either square (close their existing positions) or cover for the rally. However, if the buyers are successful in the level above 1.1348, this can shift the trend.

Overall, the trend is downward looking at the daily chart. The trend shifted downward when the sellers try to take the bottom level of 1.1204. A breakthrough to 1.1181 would mean a continuation of the descending trend. The major retracement area is around 1.1270 to 1.1318, which can act as resistance.

A prolonged move above 1.1307 signifies the presence of buyers, which could lead to a short-rally at 1.1318. However, if the market fails to break the level of 1.11307 and consolidate at this level would indicate the presence of sellers.

The upward momentum can be confirmed of the price movement towards 1.1318 is sustained but could turn downward when the support level fails at 1.1270 (50%).
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 24, 2019

The Fed hinted for a decline by 30 bp as the Fed made known their decision to go for a rate cut instead of an increase, which can have a big impact on the markets. Moreover, the bank raised their rates in the previous years without hinting of monetary easing. Yet, the market expects that this can come sooner than expected, which is also reflected in the movement of the dollar.

Hence, the euro major pair can be in a fragile position where it can move easily with the pending incoming data and any signs of a decline would open sales for the bears. In this view, this can cause a big shift in movement for the currency pair.

There is light trading for today given the minimal fundamental event, which may last throughout the day. The next important psychological level will probably be around the resistance of 1.1457. Meanwhile, the 1.1347 seems to be an attractive support level, which was the previous high at the beginning of the month. At the same time, a few confluences were seen in the ascending channel.

The level if 1.1305 is also a probable support level but there is less chance for this. However, short-term dips are needed to sustain the upward momentum. For now, there is no reason for the pair to pull back that low.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 25, 2019

The euro major pair was seen trading a bit lower prior to the opening of the US session. It was able to exceed the peak for five consecutive sessions before its decline. Hence, there is a chance for the common currency to close with the bearish tone with top price reversal. If this happens, the trend could result in a break for two to three days.

However, a price reversal would not necessarily change the trend downward. On the other hand, it shows that the sales are more ideal compared to buying at the current rate, which in most cases would mean that there is excessive impetus directed upward.

The main trend shows an upward direction based on the daily chart, which was confirmed by a successful breakout of buyers. Meanwhile, the trend is moving downhill when considering intraday trading when the market has a downward sentiment.

In case that the price moves to 1.1413, this would mean the dominance of buyers as they try to sustain below 1.1398 in order to have a top price reversal.

The support levels around retracement area of 1.1318 to 1.1278 should be given importance, which will also affect the short-term direction of the euro major pair.

Overall, the movement of the pair will depend on the trader’s reaction to yesterday's closing level of 1.1398. If the price stays around 1.1398 will signify the presence of buyers while a decline from the said level would signal the dominance of sellers. A breakthrough 1.1413 would emphasize the strengthening of buyers and if there is enough momentum, the price will likely look for a momentum to reach 1.1413. Furthermore, reaching the price level of 1.1448 will shift the trend upward. A price movement sustained below 1.1398 would indicate the presence of sellers with the initial target of 1.1381.
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 27, 2019

There was less volatility for the euro major pair in the past trading sessions. A significant fundamental report from the US may have an impact on the pair but the focus will be on the expected G20 summit.

Markets are hopeful that the China-US trade war will be subdued by the summit. The future movement of the dollar is important as the markets focus on the US monetary easing amid the sluggish economy and the existence of trade war.

The US data will not exactly move the trading pair but experts anticipate the GDP numbers to progress its annualized percent by 3.1%.

Other reports will probably not influence the movement of the pair such as the weekly unemployment claims report. To be safe, it is suggested to follow the trend. The initial two readings may be against the forecast and at the same time, there were higher revisions last week. Previously, the reading came out earlier than expected.

At the moment, I would look around the level of 1.1347, which shows a peak in early June and close to the 200-MA on both the daily and weekly charts. For the record, the pair has had three drops at this area.

The pair has to move above the level of 1.1400 in order to confirm the uptrend, although this has not happened so far as investors wait for the results of the G20 meeting. Moreover, the speeches of Fed members restrained the continuation of a decline. Hence, a driver is needed for a breakout around the range of 1.1385 and 1.1400, whilst the level of 1.1347 remains to be a psychologically important figure.
 
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