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Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Climbs Steadily While EUR/GBP Struggles
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GBP/USD is gaining pace above the 1.2640 resistance. EUR/GBP declined steadily below the 0.8565 and 0.8550 support levels.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

  • The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2700.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2690 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  • EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8565 pivot level.
  • EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8565 pivot level.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained well-bid above the 1.2520 level. The British Pound started a decent increase above the 1.2600 zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2640. The pair even climbed above 1.2700 and traded as high as 1.2726. Recently, there was a minor decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2656 swing low to the 1.2726 high, but the bulls were active above 1.2700.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2725. The next major resistance is near 1.2740.

A close above the 1.2740 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2780. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2850. On the downside, there is a key support forming near a bullish trend line at 1.2690. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2656 swing low to the 1.2726 high.

If there is a downside break below 1.2690, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is at 1.2640. The next key support is seen near 1.2600, below which the pair could test 1.2520. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2500 support.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
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GBP/USD Rate Surges to Two-Month High After Inflation News
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Today, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for the UK were published. According to ForexFactory:

→ Annual CPI: actual = 2.3%; expected = 2.1%; previous = 3.2%.

→ Annual Core CPI: actual = 3.9%; expected = 3.6%; previous = 4.2%.

Thus, it can be asserted that:

→ The current inflation level is at its lowest since 2021.

→ It is close to the target levels of 2%.

However, economists polled by Reuters had expected a sharper drop to 2.1%, based on falling energy prices.

Additionally, inflation in the services sector (a key indicator monitored by the Bank of England due to the dominance of this sector in the UK economy) only slightly decreased to 5.9% from 6%.

As a result, CNBC reports that market participants have reduced the likelihood of the Bank of England easing monetary policy:

→ The probability of a rate cut in June has decreased to 15% compared to 50% before the inflation news was published.

→ The probability of a rate cut in August was estimated at 40% compared to 70% before the publication.

The currency market reacted with a surge in volatility – the GBP/USD rate jumped to a two-month high, reaching the 1.27555 level. However, as the market absorbed the data, the price began to gradually decline.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
After Earnings Report, NVDA Stock Price Exceeds $1,000
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For the first time in history, Nvidia's stock price has reached a four-digit number, and its market capitalisation has surpassed $2.5 trillion, ranking third globally after Microsoft and Apple. This surge is due to a strong earnings report, driven by high demand for AI chips:

→ Earnings per share: actual = $6.12, expected = $5.60;
→ Gross revenue: actual = $26.04 billion, expected = $24.59 billion.

Additionally, Nvidia announced a 10-for-1 stock split to make shares more accessible and attract new investors, which should support NVDA stock in the future.

While yesterday's main trading session closed around $950 per share, the price rose by approximately 6% in after-hours trading. Thus, NVDA's stock price has increased by over 100% since the beginning of the year. Can the rally continue?

On March 28, in the article "Stock Market Analysis: NVDA Losing Leadership?", we:
→ Noted signs of weakness relative to the S&P 500 index;
→ Constructed an ascending blue channel;
→ Suggested a potential pullback to the $800 level.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
EUR/USD Price Forms Bullish Reversal Amid Key News
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Last night, the FOMC meeting minutes were released. According to USNews, there were no major surprises. However, the confirmation of persistent inflation – along with hints that some officials discussed potential future rate hikes – displayed a "hawkish" stance. The dollar index initially rose following the minutes' release but returned to pre-release levels this morning, suggesting the initial reaction might have been incorrect.

Subsequently, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for key European economies was published. According to ForexFactory:
→ Flash Manufacturing PMI (France): actual = 46.7; expected = 45.8; previous = 45.3;
→ Flash Services PMI (France): actual = 49.4; expected = 51.8; previous = 51.3;
→ Flash Manufacturing PMI (Germany): actual = 45.4; expected = 43.4; previous = 42.5;
→ Flash Services PMI (Germany): actual = 53.9; expected = 53.5; previous = 53.2.

Overall, the actual PMI figures, considered a leading indicator of economic health, exceeded expectations and gave the euro a bullish push.

The combined effect of the euro's rise and the dollar's decline since midnight resulted in a four-hour EUR/USD chart candle with a long lower tail (indicated by an arrow), suggesting demand outweighs supply. A subsequent bullish candle could confirm this.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
USD to CAD Analytical Predictions in 2024, 2025 and Beyond
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This comprehensive article delves into the intricacies of the USD to CAD exchange rate, exploring the factors that may influence its trajectory in 2024, 2025, and beyond. From economic outlooks to key market drivers, this article provides valuable insights for traders navigating the complexities of currency trading.

The Canadian Dollar's Recent Performance

Over the past several years, the USD/CAD exchange rate has experienced a variety of shifts, reflecting broader economic trends and specific events in both the United States and Canada. To see how the pair’s movements have unfolded over the years, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to interact with live USD/CAD charts.

Throughout 2019, the USD/CAD exchange rate remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 1.35 and 1.30. This period was marked by heightened trade tensions between the US and its key trading partners, primarily China, which had a ripple effect on the pair due to both the US and Canada's significant trade relationships.

TO VIEW THE FULL ARTICLE, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
European Currencies Testing Key Levels: Contributing Factors
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In recent trading sessions, a significant amount of crucial macroeconomic data has been released from the US, Europe, and the UK:

  • Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the UK (the figure came in higher than experts' forecast at 2.3% versus 2.1%)
  • Wednesday: Publication of the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting
  • Thursday: US Manufacturing PMI (the figure exceeded experts' forecast at 50.9 versus 50.0)

This rich mix of data contributed to the USD/JPY pair testing 157.00, EUR/USD sellers attempting to break key support at 1.0800, and the GBP/USD pair halting its recent strengthening and returning to 1.2700.

EUR/USD

Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair indicates the development of a bearish “dark cloud cover” pattern on the daily timeframe, formed on May 16. If the pair's sellers manage to break the support at 1.0800, the downward movement of the pair could extend towards 1.0730-1.0710. A resumption of the upward movement can be expected once the price moves above 1.0900. Today, several macroeconomic indicators are due for release, which could either reinforce the current trend or lead to the formation of reversal patterns:

  • Today at 09:00 (GMT+3:00) Germany's Q1 GDP
  • Today at 13:00 (GMT+3:00) Eurogroup Meeting

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Market Analysis: Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Signal Bearish Acceleration
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Gold price started a sharp decline from $2,450. Crude oil prices declined steadily below the $80.00 support and moved into a bearish zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

  • Gold price climbed higher toward the $2,450 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
  • A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $2,375 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  • Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $78.00 support zone.
  • A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $78.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price rallied heavily above the $2,350 resistance. The price even spiked above $2,425 before the bears appeared.

A high was formed near $2,450 before there was a major decline. There was a move below the $2,400 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $2,355 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.

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VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
S&P-500 Analysis: Good News is Bad News
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Yesterday, S&P Global reported its Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) values for the US, which exceeded expectations. According to ForexFactory:

→ Manufacturing PMI: actual = 50.9; expected = 50.0; previous = 50.0.

→ Services PMI: actual = 54.8 (the highest value since May 2023); expected = 51.2; previous = 51.3.

However, the high PMI values, indicating a healthy economy, led to a drop in the stock index. The S&P-500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) fell by more than 1.5% following the publication.

What explains this case of "good news is bad news"?

The point is, amid high business activity, manufacturers reported rising prices for a range of resources, suggesting that goods inflation might strengthen in the coming months. Stock market participants might have interpreted this as a reason for the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates for a longer period – hence the sharp decline in the index.

"Companies remain cautious with respect to the economic outlook amid uncertainty over the future path of inflation and interest rates, and continue to cite worries over geopolitical instabilities and the presidential election," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, in an interview with Reuters.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Gold Price Drops Over 3.6% in 2 Days
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The price of gold has fallen by more than 3.6% over 2 days, as indicated by today's XAU/USD chart. The day before yesterday, at the opening of the daily candle, the price of gold was $2421 per ounce, and yesterday at the close it was $2331.

This can be explained by market participants expecting higher Federal Reserve interest rates for a longer period. However, although gold is a hedge against inflation, it has two drawbacks:
→ It does not inherently generate income;
→ The gold market may be overvalued – after all, a historical peak was reached on May 20th.

Therefore, investors are increasingly paying attention to bonds – they also allow hedging against inflation, while their yields are rising.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Watch FXOpen's 20 - 24 May Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: Nasdaq 100, NVIDIA, EUR/USD, Gold price


Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • Tech Stocks Back in Vogue as Nasdaq 100 Rallies to Record High
  • After Earnings Report, NVDA Stock Price Exceeds $1,000
  • EUR/USD Price Forms Bullish Reversal Amid Key News
  • Gold Price Reaches Historic High

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.


Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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