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Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

GBP/USD Analysis: Pound Recovers After the Bank of England Decision
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Yesterday, the Bank of England published its interest rate decision. According to ForexFactory, the votes were distributed as follows:

→ rate hike - 0 votes, cut - 2 votes, unchanged - 7 (0 - 2 - 7);

→ forecast: 0 - 0 - 9;

→ previous values: 0 - 1 - 8.

For the first time in the current cycle of interest rate hikes aimed at inflation lowering, two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favour of the rate cut. The dovish tone was echoed by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey: “It is likely that we will need to cut the bank rate over coming quarters, possibly more so than is currently priced into markets.”

The market's first reaction to the clear signals of the imminent easing monetary policy was the weakening of the pound, including against the US dollar. Thus, yesterday, the GBP/USD rate dropped below the low of April 26 at around 1.245.

However:

→ the US dollar is also affected by the prospect of the Fed's easing monetary policy because the current tight policy puts pressure on the labour market - according to data from May 9, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US was the highest since November 2023;

→ Today's UK GDP data (which turned out to be better than expected) supported the pound.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
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WTI Oil Price Recovers Quickly From March Lows
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On May 8, the price of WTI crude oil fell below $77 per barrel for the first time since March 11. But on the morning of May 10, it was above $79 – an increase of almost 3% in less than two days.

Several factors contributed to the significant rise in the price of WTI crude oil. According to Reuters, among them:

→ Increased oil demand from the United States. Data released on Wednesday showed a drop in US crude oil inventories, driven by increased refinery utilisation.

→ Growing demand from China. Data published on Thursday showed an increase in oil imports.

→ Ongoing concerns about possible supply disruptions due to escalating conflict in the Middle East. Negotiations to end hostilities between Israel and Hamas failed, and Israel attacked the Palestinian city of Rafah.

On April 19, we wrote about the possibility of a bearish breakdown of the ascending channel line, which would be welcomed by the US administration, where the presidential elections are getting closer and closer.

Since then, the price of oil has broken down the median line and the support line at $80.70, which may act as resistance in the future.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Market Analysis: Gold Price Regains Strength While Crude Oil Price Recovers
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The gold price started a fresh increase above $2,320. Crude oil is recovering and might rise toward the $81.20 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Price Analysis Today

  • The gold price started a decent increase from the $2,300 zone against the US Dollar.
  • It broke a key descending channel with resistance at $2,315 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  • Crude oil is recovering losses and trading above the $78.55 support.
  • There was a break above a connecting bearish trendline with resistance near $78.40 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of XAU/USD at FXOpen, the price formed support near the $2,275 zone, remained in a bullish zone, and started a strong increase above $2,300.

It broke a key descending channel with resistance at $2,315. The bulls even pushed the price above the $2,345 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it traded as high as $2,358. XAU/USD is now consolidating gains near the $2,355 zone, and the RSI is above 70.

Initial support on the downside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,307 swing low to the $2,358 high at $2,345.

The first major support is near the $2,335 zone. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,307 swing low to the $2,358 high. If there is a downside break below the $2,335 support, the price might decline further.

In the stated case, the price might drop toward $2,320 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

Immediate resistance is near the $2,360 level. The next major resistance is near the $2,372 level. An upside break above the $2,372 resistance could send the gold price toward $2,385. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,400 level.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Analytical Euro to Dollar Predictions for 2024-2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair stands as a critical barometer of economic interactions and the relative strength between the Eurozone and the United States. This article delves into the recent history, economic outlooks, and analytical euro-to-dollar forecasts for this major currency pair in 2024 and 2025.

Recent EUR/USD History

From 2019 to the present, the EUR/USD currency pair has navigated through turbulent economic waters, influenced by a series of global events and differing monetary policies between Europe and the United States.

Initially, the euro experienced a gradual depreciation against the dollar, moving from around 1.14 at 2019’s open to close the year at 1.12. This was largely due to the European Central Bank's (ECB) continuation of its quantitative easing program, coupled with its persistently low interest rate of 0%.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 sent the euro tumbling further to a low of approximately 1.06 as panic gripped global markets. However, recovery was swift, and by September 2020, the euro had climbed to a high of about 1.20, bolstered by the US dollar's comparative weakness.

The euro fluctuated between 1.23 and 1.17 in the first half of 2021. However, inflation began to rise in both the Eurozone and US economy, but more so in the US. The anticipation of steep hikes by the Federal Reserve caused it to close near 1.13 by year's end.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Gold Price (XAU/USD) Is Testing an Important Resistance Zone
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On April 16, we wrote why the $2,380 zone is an important resistance area.

The XAU/USD chart shows that:

1) After fading fluctuations (they formed a narrowing consolidation triangle - shown in green), the price of gold dropped sharply (shown by a black arrow) on April 22-23.

2) Then, the price found support in the form of the lower border of the ascending channel (shown in blue), which has been in effect since the beginning of March. This led to the formation of another consolidation pattern between the blue lines.

3) An upward breakdown of the red lines on May 9 could be interpreted as an attempt by the bulls to resume the upward trend within the blue channel, but we could expect that the green triangle with its axis around 2380 would provide resistance.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Sees Green as USD/JPY Gains Bullish Traction
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EUR/USD is slowly gaining traction above the 1.0800 level. USD/JPY trimmed almost all losses and showing positive signs above 156.20.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

  • The Euro started a decent increase above the 1.0750 pivot level.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/JPY climbed higher above the 155.95 and 156.50 levels.
  • There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 156.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.0725 zone. The Euro cleared a few key hurdles near 1.0750 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

The pair settled above the 1.0800 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.0830 and the pair is now consolidating gains. Immediate support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0775 swing low to the 1.0827 high at 1.0815.

The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0800. There is also key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0800 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0775 swing low to the 1.0827 high.

The next key support is at 1.0790. If there is a downside break below 1.0790, the pair could drop toward 1.0750. The next support is near 1.0725, below which the pair could start a major decline.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 1.0830 zone. The next major resistance is near 1.0850. An upside break above 1.0850 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0920.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
The S&P 500 Index Has Reached a Significant Resistance Level
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Analyzing the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) on April 26, we wrote about how the April decline could be a correction to the lower boundary of the channel within the 2024 rally. Following this, a logical development would be for the bulls to attempt to resume the upward trend and make another attempt to breach the 5250 level.

Today, May 15, the price of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is at the 5250 level after a bullish breakout of the trendline (shown in red) that delineated the correction.

The price has risen by approximately 4.5% since the beginning of May as earnings season has not been disappointing, and traders anticipate the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy.

Is further index growth possible?

Ben Snyder, Senior US Equity Market Strategist at Goldman Sachs, is positive in the long term but notes that:
→ the S&P 500 index has already surpassed the 5200 target level indicated by the bank's analysts;
→ an obvious risk of growth lies in the fact that companies may need to significantly raise profit forecasts.

Fundamental background has a significant influence on the dynamics of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). For example, yesterday Producer Price Index (PPI) data was released. According to ForexFactory: PPI m/m actual = 0.5%, expected = 0.3%, a month ago = -0.1%.

The initial market reaction was a decline in the price of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) – perhaps market participants were spooked by rising producer prices and the prospect of higher Fed rates. However, this was followed by a statement from Fed Chair Powell, who reassured the markets. According to him:
→ the next Fed move is unlikely to be a rate hike;
→ the PPI data is more "mixed than hot", considering that the previous period's data was revised downwards.
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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
The Stock Price of PepsiСo (PEP) Is Retracting from Its Yearly High
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On April 23, the quarterly report of PepsiCo's performance for the first quarter was published, which was awaited anxiously.

The issue stemmed from the fact that in December 2023, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced the recall of over 40 Quaker Oats products – a company owned by PepsiCo – due to potential salmonella contamination. This led to a 22% decline in sales volume of Quaker Food products in the first quarter.

However, the report exceeded expectations:
→ Earnings per share: Actual = $1.16, Expected = $1.518;
→ Gross revenue: Actual = $18.25 billion, Expected = $18.08 billion.

By April 25, the stock price of PepsiCo (PEP) reached its yearly high, surpassing the $180 mark.

Then, this week, specifically May 13, the stock price of PepsiCo (PEP) hit a new yearly high, exceeding $181.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
The US Dollar Is Weakening Following Inflation Data
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Yesterday saw the release of key economic indicators for the US. According to ForexFactory:

→ Core Price Index (CPI) monthly: actual = 0.3%, expected = 0.4%, previous = 0.4%;

→ Core Price Index (CPI) annual: actual = 3.4%, expected = 3.4%, previous = 3.5%;

→ Retail Sales monthly: actual = 0.0%, expected = 0.4%, previous = 0.6%.

Concerns about rising inflation did not materialise. Reuters reports that unchanged retail sales suggest conditions are forming for interest rate cuts.

Financial markets reacted significantly, with the US dollar weakening:

→ As we reported yesterday, signs of slowing inflation increased market participants' belief in imminent rate cuts, leading to the S&P 500 stock index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) reaching an all-time high;

→ Gold prices reached a high not seen since April 21;

→ Other currencies strengthened against the US dollar.

An interesting situation is developing on the USD/JPY chart. Applying Fibonacci ratios, we note three instances where price recovery halted around the 0.382 level:

→ Recovery from B to C following the impulsive decline from A to B;

→ Recovery from D to E after the impulsive decline from C to D;

→ Recovery from F to G after the 3-wave decline from A to F.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
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Currency
Rates
EUR / USD
1.08781
USD / JPY
156.799
GBP / USD
1.29172
USD / CHF
0.88891
USD / CAD
1.37514
EUR / JPY
170.568
AUD / USD
0.66470

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