Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

In the midst of the US election NZDUSD jumped from 0.59662 to 0.60145.

The US election has been taking place since November 5 with a tight competition between Kamala Haris and Donald Trump. The NZDUSD pair drew a bulls candle yesterday with a low of 0.59662 and a high of 0.60145 and closed at 0.60054 below the middle band line.

As is known, NZD is one of the commodity currencies that is influenced by their commodity exports, so the US election is crucial for this currency because the change of president may differ in the economic policies implemented.

New Zealand is China's trading partner, if Trump becomes the winner of the election, it could be less supportive of New Zealand's partnership with China because Trump promised to levy 60% import tariffs on China if he wins, which would increase risks to economic growth.

Meanwhile, analysts estimate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut interest rates again by 50 basis points at its last monetary policy meeting this year on November 27.

New Zealand employment data released today showed the actual data was 4.8% smaller than the expected 5.0%, although it was higher than the previous revision of 4.6%. Less actual data good for currency. Meanwhile, the Change in the number of employed people report shows -0.5% smaller than expected -0.4% from the previous revision of 0.2%. actual data is lower than expected which is less good for the currency.

NZDUSD D1

NZDUSD price on the daily timeframe is now moving below the middle band line. Bollinger bands appear to be narrowing, indicating decreasing volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the upper band line curving to the lower side indicating a downtrend market. The 200 MA above the middle band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 63 and VB Low shows a value of 23. The difference of 40 reflects a high volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 43 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at the value of 41 with the rising channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 34 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

NZDUSD H4

NZDUSD price in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the upper band line. Bollinger band squeeze reflects low volatility waiting for a breakout.

MA 50 below the price near the middle band drawing a descending channel indicates a downtrend with potential reversal. The 200 MA is far above the upper band line drawing a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 58 and VB Low shows a value of 36. The difference of 22 reflects the low volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 48 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 57 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 54 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

GBPUSD plunges as Trump wins the US presidential election.

Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election has had a strong impact on the USD. It was observed that the USD strengthened in all currency pairs after Trump won over Kamala Harris. From the Associated Press, Trump currently gets 72,083,871 votes (51%) and Harris gets 67,274,910 votes (47.6%).

The USD strengthened, including the British Pound Sterling which yesterday plunged from a high of 1.30471, dropping to 1.28333. The price forms a bearish candle with a long body and a shadow at the bottom of the candle. Price falls from above crossing the middle band line and breaking the lower band line.

Trump's promise of an aggressive expansion of US tariffs on all cross-border trade has caused the USD to strengthen against other currencies. Trump has vowed across-the-board tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports coming into the United States and tariffs of 60%-100% on Chinese imports.

Apart from the US election results which are in the spotlight, the Fed and BoE policies which are predicted to cut interest rates are also the focus of the GBPUSD pair.

Today the Bank of England (BoE) will make a decision on interest rates, which are expected to cut by 25 basis points from 5.00% to 4.75%.

GBPUSD D1

GBPUSD price is now at around 1.28737 near the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with narrowed bands indicating sideways with moderate volatility.

The 50 MA near the upper band curves downwards indicating a downtrend, while the 200 MA below the lower band draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 63 and VB Low shows a value of 27. The difference of 35 reflects high volatility in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 45 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 38 with a zigzag channel crossing the TSL indicating trend uncertainty.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 40 with a curved channel to the downside indicating a downtrend market.

GBPUSD H4

GBPUSD price is now moving near the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with rather wide band spacing indicating sideways with moderate volatility.

The 50 MA near the middle band line draws a flat channel indicating sideways, and the 200 MA above the upper band draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market with the potential for a downside decline.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 59 and VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 24 reflects the low volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 47 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 38 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line pointing to the value 42 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper side indicates a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

USDCAD failed to continue its upside rally and fell ahead of the Fed's decision

USDCAD price yesterday drew a bearish candle with a high of 1.39474 and a low of 1.38414 and closed at 1.38621 on the FXOpen platform.

Previously, the USDCAD pair had a strong rally from a low of 1.38131 to a high of 1.39578 due to the influence of Trump's victory in the US elections held on November 5. However, the rally paused and was turned down yesterday.

Ahead of the Fed's interest rate announcement, USDCAD had started to show its decline, and there was no turbulence after the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points at 4.75% as expected from the previous 5.00%.

The dollar index (DXY) formed a similar pattern, after rising due to Trump's victory yesterday, falling at 104.187 from a high of 105.252, down around 0.75%.

Next, investors will focus on Canadian employment data which will be released today. Employment Change is predicted to fall to 27.9k from the previous 46.7k, while the Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise to 6.6% from the previous 6.5%.

USDCAD D1

USDCAD price on the daily timeframe is now moving near the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw a slight upward channel with deflating bands indicating an uptrend with reduced volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market. MA 200 is close to MA 50 also drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 83 and VB Low shows a value of 40. The difference of 43 reflects a high volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 61 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 55 with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 64 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

USDCAD H4

USDCADH price in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing indicating a flat market with high volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line drawing a flat channel above the price indicates a possible trend shift. The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 63 and VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 27 reflects the value of moderate volatility in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 49 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 40 with a curved descending channel indicating a possible trend shift after crossing the TSL and MBL from the upside.

Trade Signal Line pointing to the value 44 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper side indicates a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Silver prices fell amid the cryptocurrency market Bullrun

Trump's victory in the 2024 US election has had a broad impact on financial markets. Apart from having an impact on strengthening the USD, it is also the reason for the Bullrun in the crypto market. The dollar index (DXY) is now at 104.951, up 0.57%. Meanwhile, in the crypto market, many crypto coins experienced significant prices including Bitcoin in 7 days rising more than 15%, Ethereum 28%, Solana, 26%, Doge 78%, ADA 78%, with almost all crypto coins experiencing price increases.

However, amidst the bull run in the crypto market, the price of Silver actually fell. In Friday's trading, Silver drop formed a bearish candle with a high of 32,059 and a low of 31,184 and closed at 31,295.

Silver and gold are often positively correlated, these two precious metals often move side by side even though there are different movement anomalies. After Trump was confirmed to have won the US election, gold and silver prices fell sharply because Trump's policy of increasing tariffs by 50% for Chinese traders weighed on gold and silver, where China is one of the largest importers of gold and silver globally. However, China is also the second largest silver-producing country after Mexico, in 2022 Mexico produced 5,600 MT and China produced 3,400 MT based on statistics based on the US Geological Survey.

With Trump's promise of an inward economic policy, it could revive the trade war with China, which in fact currently dominates popular international trade with cheaper prices, thereby threatening the domestic economy.

Today on the economic calendar investors may only wait for New Zealand inflation data which is not much related to Silver, while banks in Canada and the US are closed today which could affect market liquidity.

XAGUSD D1

Silver price on the daily timeframe is now moving near the MA 50 above the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing indicating a sideways market with high volatility.

The 50 MA near the price draws a slight upward channel, the MA line sometimes acts as dynamic support and resistance. The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing a slight upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 71 and VB Low shows a value of 44. The difference of 27 reflects the value of Silver volatility in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 58 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish

RSI Price Line pointing value 45 crosses MBL from the upside with a curved descending channel indicating a possible reversal.

The Trade Signal Line points to a value of 47 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

XAGUSD H4

Silver price in the H4 timeframe is now moving below the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing indicating a downtrend with high volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band line drawing a descending channel above MA 200 indicates a downtrend market. Meanwhile, MA 200 with a flat channel indicates a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 48 and VB Low shows a value of 22. The difference of 26 reflects the value of moderate volatility in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 35 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 38 crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line pointing to the value 42 has crossed the MBL from the downside with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices plunge to a low of $2610, the Trump effect weighs on gold

Gold prices on Monday fell sharply extending previous declines. Gold price drew a bearish long-body candle with a high of $2685 a low of $2610 and a close at $2618. Gold price crossed the lower band and MA 50 indicates a sharp decline.

The price of gold experienced a significant decline after Trump won the 2024 US presidential contest. Several reasons caused the price of gold to fall, including the strengthening of the USD, increasing performance on the US stock market, increasing performance of Bitcoin, Donald Trump's claim that he wants to end the Middle East conflict, and the possibility of the Fed holding down interest rates due to high fiscal deficit.

Trump's promise to increase trade tariffs is also predicted to increase the price of goods and inflation which could slow the Fed from lowering interest rates.

In the crypto market, the performance of Bitcoin and its friends also weighed on gold. Bitcoin just hit a new record high of $82k, due to expectations that Trump will loosen crypto regulations. Gold experienced a decline because perhaps portfolio managers switched to riskier assets.

XAUDUSD D1

Gold prices on the daily timeframe are now moving below the lower band line. Gold price breaks the lower band indicating sharp decline. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with narrowing band spaces indicating lower market volatility.

The 50 MA is drawing a slight rising channel indicating an uptrend, but the price reaction crossing the MA line from the upside signals a downtrend. MA 200 is far below the MA 50 line drawing a rising channel, MA sometimes acts as dynamic support and resistance.

The VB High TDI indicator points to a value of 78 and the VB Low points to a value of 48. The difference of 30 reflects high volatility values on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 63 with a downward channel, meaning a greater bullish weight than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 42 with a descending channel crossing the MBL and TSL and even the VB Low lines indicate a downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 51 with a falling channel crossing the MBL from the upside indicating a downtrend market.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price on the H4 timeframe is now moving near the lower band line. Bollinger bands are drawing a downward channel with expanding bands indicating downtrend with high volatility market.

The 50 MA near the upper band draws a downward channel indicating downtrend market. MA 200 above the price near the middle band line draws a flat channel indicating trend transition.

VB High TDI indicator points to a value of 51 and VB Low points to a value of 24. The difference of 27 reflects moderate volatility values on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 37 with a falling channel, meaning bearish weight is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 23 with a falling channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side indicating the downtrend is in the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 31 with a falling channel crossing the MBL from the upside indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

The British pound weakened against the USD after weak UK employment data

GBPUSD yesterday drew a bearish candle with a long body with a slight shadow at the bottom of the candle. Price formed a high of 1.28726, dropped to a low of 1.27185, and closed at 1.27500. The price drops across the lower band and MA 200 from the upside.

The employment data report released yesterday showed weak data. The unemployment rate rose 4.3% while average income grew faster than expected in the last three months. The Office for National Statistics reported that the ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3% from 4.0% in the three months ended August, higher than estimates of 4.1%. In the same period, UK employers added 219k new workers, less than the previously revised 373k.

Slowing UK labor demand seems to be weighing on the Pound Sterling despite other positive data. Annual growth in average employee regular earnings excluding bonuses in the UK was 4.8% in July to September 2024, and annual growth in total earnings including bonuses was 4.3%. This total annual growth is influenced by one-time payments to civil servants made in July and August 2023.

Meanwhile, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates at its December meeting. Investors expected a 25 basis point cut. However, according to BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill, salary growth is still quite stiff at a high level making it difficult to align with the bank's inflation target of 2%, it seems possible they will hold interest rates longer.

On the other hand, Trump's protectionist policies are predicted to increase inflationary pressures so that the Fed may take a gradual policy easing approach. In December, it is predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. According to the FedWatch tool, the possibility of a 25 basis point cut is 58.7%, and the possibility of interest rates remaining unchanged is 41.3%.

Next, investors today will focus on US CPI data. The core CPI is predicted to be 0.3%, the same as the previous revision, the CPI m/m is also predicted to be the same as the previous 0.2%, while the CPI y/y is forecast to rise 2.6% from the previous 2.4%.

GBPUSD D1

GBPUSD price is now moving below the lower band line outside the line, the pair dropped sharply crossing the lower band and MA 200 from the upper side. Bollinger bands expand following market changes, indicating higher market volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band line draws a flat channel indicating an up-to-down trend transition. The 200 MA draws a flat channel near the lower band indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 54 and VB Low shows a value of 29. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 42 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 34 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 41 with a downward channel below the MBL line indicating a downtrend market.

GBPUSD H4

GBPUSD price in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the lower band line. Bollinger bands expand indicating high market volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line drawing a descending channel indicates a market downtrend. The 200 MA near the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 60 and VB Low shows a value of 26. The difference of 34 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 43 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 25 curving upwards, indicating that the downtrend market is in the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line points to the value 28 with the descending channel having crossed the MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

AUDUSD extends decline after US CPI data release

Yesterday the AUDUSD pair continued its decline and drew a bearish candlestick with a long body across the lower band line. Price formed a low of 0.64799, a drop from a high of 0.65455, and the candle closed at 0.64839 on FXOpen. AUDUSD has experienced four consecutive days of decline, indicating that USD strength is more dominant.

Prior to the release of the US CPI data, the market moved weakly, but shortly after the release of the CPI data, prices then fluctuated, rising sharply in less than five minutes to 0.65455 but paused and finally declined gradually. Yesterday's US CPI data was in line with expectations, the core CPI was 0.3%, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was 0.2%, while the all-item index was 2.6% from the previous revision of 2.4%.

Even though it temporarily caused AUDUSD to rise, the price then fell, prolonging the strengthening of the USD which also occurred in other currency pairs against the USD.

Today investors will focus on Australian employment data, Employment Change is predicted to fall by 25.2k from the previous 64/1k, and the Unemployment Rate is predicted to be the same as previously at 4.1%. Investors will also pay attention to RBA Gov Bullock Speaks which may provide hawkish or dovish hints.

Apart from Australian employment data, today there is also the release of US economic data, PPI, where the core PPI is predicted to be 0.3% from the previous 0.2%. Unemployment Claims are estimated to be 224k from the previous 221k.

AUDUSD D1

The price of the AUDUSD currency pair is now moving across the lower band indicating a strong decline. Bollinger bands are expanding, indicating high market volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band line draws a downward curved channel indicating a market downtrend. The 200 MA near the middle band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market with a downward movement tendency.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 58 and VB Low shows a value of 27. The difference of 31 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 41 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 35 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 40 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

AUDUSD H4

The price of the AUDUSD pair in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw downward curves with wide band spacing indicating a downtrend with high volatility.

MA 50 above the middle band line draws a downward curved line indicating a downtrend market. The 200 MA near the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 61 and VB Low shows a value of 26. The difference of 35 reflects the volatility value of the AUDUSD pair in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 44 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 27 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating the downtrend market is in the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 33 with a downward channel, indicating a market downtrend.

 

[radex78]

The GBPUSD pair extended its decline following the release of PPI data

The GBPUSD pair yesterday drew a bearish candle extending its consecutive downtrend for five days in a row. Price formed a high of 1.27193 and a low of 1.26289 and closed at 1.26644. Price has crossed the lower band line and is outside the line.

The United States Producer Price Index (PPI) yesterday showed an actual value of 0.2% higher than the previous data revision of 0.1%, but the value was the same as predicted. In theory, data that is higher than expectations is optimistic for the currency, whereas data that is lower is pessimistic for the currency. Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims data showed 217k from the expected 224k and the previous revision of 221k. This data adds to the optimistic attitude towards the USD.

Even though there was no high volatility in the market after the data release, the strengthening of the USD seems to be continuing, this can be seen from the USD currency which strengthened against other major currencies including JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, Euro. The euphoria of Trump trades still seems to be driving the strengthening of the USD even though several technical analyzes show oversold levels, but this does not prevent a bear market.

Today investors will wait for the release of UK GDP which is expected to be the same as the previous revision of 0.2%. If the actual value is higher than expected it may encourage GBP to strengthen, whereas if it is lower it is a pessimistic attitude for GBP.

Furthermore, investors are also waiting for the release of US Core Retail Sales data which is expected to fall 0.3% from the previous 0.5%, U.S. retail and food services sales are expected to be 0.3% from the previous 0.4%.

GBPUSD D1

GBPUSD on the daily timeframe is moving outside the Bollinger band below the lower band. Expanding Bollinger bands indicate high market volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band line bends to the downside indicating a downtrend market. The 200 MA below the middle band draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market, while the price has crossed the 200 MA line from the upside.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 49 and VB Low shows a value of 30. The difference of 19 reflects the low volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 40 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 30 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend has entered the oversold level.

Trade Signal Line points to the value 37 drawing a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

GBPUSD H4

The GBPUSD pair in the H4 timeframe is now moving between the middle band line and the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing indicating a downtrend with high volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend. The 200 MA above the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator points to a value of 55 and VB Low points to a value of 16. The difference of 39 reflects the high volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 35 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 29 with a curved channel to the downside indicating the downtrend is in the oversold level.

Trade Signal Line pointing to the value 24 draws a curved channel to the upside indicating a possible trend transition.

 

[radex78]

USDJPY fails to extend gains as USD weakens

Last week USDJPY price drew a bearish candle with a long body as it paused its previous rally. The price formed a high of 156.091 and a low of 153.854 closing at 154.253.

The Japanese yen previously weakened against the USD for four consecutive days due to the protectionist Trump administration, but in weekend trading USDJPY declined due to US core retail sales data 0.1% lower than expected 0.3%. In addition, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato's statement that he would take appropriate action against excessive currency movements was another reason for JPY strengthening at the end of last week.

Data taken from the US Cencus showed that the preliminary estimate of US retail and food services sales for October 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and differences in holidays and trading days, but not for price changes, was $718.9 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2023. Total sales for the August 2024 to October 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) compared to the same period last year. The August 2024 to September 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales rose 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from September 2024, and were up 2.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from a year ago. Non-store retailers rose 7.0 percent (±1.4 percent) from a year ago, while food services and drinking places rose 4.3 percent (±2.1 percent) from October 2023.

Investors' focus today is on BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks which might give fresh hints of hawkish or dovish statements as the future direction of interest rate policy.

USDJPY D1

USDJPY price on the daily timeframe is now moving between the middle and upper band lines. Bollinger bands are drawing an upward channel with slightly wide band spacing indicating a market uptrend with moderate volatility.

The 50 MA below the lower band draws a rising channel indicating an uptrend market. The 200 MA below the middle band draws a slight upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 71 and VB Low shows a value of 57. The difference of 14 reflects the low volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 64 with a rising channel, meaning bullish weight is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 58 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 61 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

USDJPY H4

USDJPY price on the H4 timeframe is now moving near the lower band line. Bollinger bands are drawing an upward channel that is starting to curve on the downside with wide band spacing indicating a potential uptrend reversal.

The 50 MA near the price is drawing a rising channel, indicating an uptrend market. The 200 MA far below the lower band draws a rising channel indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 75 and the VB Low shows a value of 44. The difference of 31 reflects the high volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 59 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bulls is greater than bears.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 43 with a falling channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 53 with a falling channel crossing the MBL from the upside indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold got positive traction on Monday halting the previous week's decline.

Gold prices rose yesterday by drawing a long body bulls candle. The price formed a low of $2563, a high of $2614 and closed at $2611. Monday's rise in gold prices halted the previous week's consecutive declines after last drawing an indecision Doji candle.

Weakening USD seems to have an impact on gold prices. The US dollar weakened after US retail sales core data showed lower than expected numbers. On the other hand, investors still expect Trump's policies in his administration to increase inflation and slowdown the Fed from easing interest rate cuts more slowly. This in turn could increase USD demand and raise government bond yields which could hold back bullish expectations on gold. Traders may still be skeptical that Monday's rise in gold is just a pullback or reversal and may wait for further market changes.

On the other hand, gold's support for geopolitical risks still has potential as a safe-haven asset even though other factors are also a factor such as the Chinese economy and Trump's policy developments.

In the latest development over the weekend, US President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use the American Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to attack Russia. The decision to allow the use of US long-range weapons inside Russian territory comes after Moscow deployed North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces. A prolonged war increases further geopolitical risks that could possibly trigger a third world war.

Meanwhile in the Middle East, the latest news has dragged in a new country fighting against Israel, Iraq. According to CNBC, the Iraqi Islamic Resistance Movement claimed to have fired a drone that successfully hit a vital target in Eliat, an Israeli-occupied territory.

XAUUSD D1

Gold price is now moving below the middle band line and 50 MA. Bollinger bands are drawing a falling channel with wide band spacing indicating high market volatility.

The 50 MA above the price is drawing a flat channel indicating sideways with more downtrend potential than bullish. The 200 MA is well below the price drawing a rising channel, indicating an uptrend market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 78 and VB Low shows a value of 36. The difference of 42 reflects high volatility values on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 57 with a downward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 42 with a rising channel crossing the TSL from the downside indicating an uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 36 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price on the H4 timeframe is moving near the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with medium band spacing indicating sideways market with medium volatility.

The 50 MA is slightly above the upper band line drawing a descending channel indicating downtrend market. MA 200 slightly above MA 50 line draws a flat channel indicating sideways market with bearish potential.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 53 and VB Low shows a value of 15. The difference of 38 reflects the high volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 34 with a flat channel, meaning bearish weight is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 58 with a rising channel indicating the market uptrend is approaching the overbought level.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 53 with a rising channel indicating an uptrend market.