Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

USDCAD hovers ahead of BOC interest rates

USDCAD price hovers near 1.38500 resistance ahead of today's BOC interest rate announcement. Yesterday the price drew a small body bearish candlestick with a high of 1.38370 and a low of 1.38129 indicating a low volatility market. The bullish sentiment seems to be fading somewhat ahead of the BOC rate call.

The BOC is predicted to cut interest rates by 50 bp from the previous 4.25% to 3.75%. Looking at Canadian inflation data in 2024 from the declining first and second quarters gives hope that the expected 50 bp rate cut may become actual. CPI inflation in the first quarter showed 2.8 and fell in the second quarter by 2.7. Meanwhile Chain price index for GDP data rose from 3.5 in the first quarter to 3.9 in the second quarter.

On the other hand, the uncertainty of the US election still raises questions about who will be the winner. Although Trump may emerge as the winner, market sentiment is still nervous.

Today investors will focus more on the BOC's monetary and interest rate reports which can have a direct impact if the actual data differs greatly from expectations.

USDCAD D1

USDCAD price on the daily timeframe is now hovering below the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing indicating an uptrend with high market volatility.

The 50 MA below the 200 MA draws a flat channel indicating sideways, while the 200 MA draws a slight upward channel indicating a weak uptrend.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 74 and VB low shows a value of 35. The difference of 39 reflects a high volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 54 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 69 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market in the overbought level zone.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 69 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

USDCAD H4

In the H4 timeframe, the USDCAD price is now moving near the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing reflecting a sideways market with low volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band line draws an upward channel indicating an uptrend market, while MA 200 is far below the lower band drawing an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 72 and VB low shows a value of 47, the difference of 25 reflects the low volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 60 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 54 with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side indicating a market downtrend.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 61 with a downward channel crossing indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

EURGBP rises ahead of PMI data release

Yesterday's EURGBP price rose drawing a long body bullish candlestick and there was a shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a low of 0.83028 and a high of 0.83441 and moved up near the middle band line.

The pair faces challenges due to market rumors that the ECB will cut interest rates again in December. The rumors emerged after Reuters reported on Wednesday that European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers had begun debating whether interest rates would need to fall below neutral levels during the current easing cycle. Currently, the ECB interest rate is 3.40%, which has decreased from the previous 3.65%.

Sterling also faces headwinds following falling consumer and producer inflation rates, along with weak labor market data in the UK, which boosted hopes of the Bank of England cutting interest rates by 25 bp in November. The BoE interest rate is currently still at 5.00%.

Investors today will focus on several important news events from BOE Governor Andrew Bailey's speech which could provide clues to a hawkish or dovish statement. Apart from that, investors will also focus on PMI data from several European countries, the US and the UK.

EURGBP D1

EURGBP price on the daily timeframe is now moving near the middle band line. The price tries to cross the middle band line from the downside. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with slightly deflated band spacing indicating sideways with moderate volatility.

The MA 50 near the upper band line draws a downward channel, while the MA 200 far above the MA 50 draws a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 51 and VB low shows a value of 29. The difference of 22 reflects the low volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 40 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 47 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 43 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

EURGBP H4

EURGBP price in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the upper band line. The Bollinger band line appears to be expanding, indicating increasing market volatility.

The 50 MA below the price draws a downward channel reflecting a market downtrend, while the 200 MA far above the upper band line draws a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 57 and VB low shows a value of 34. The difference of 23 reflects the low volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 45 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 57 with an upward channel crossing the MBL and TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line pointing at the value 47 crosses the MBL from the downside with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

USDJPY declines when DXY falls

Yesterday's upward trend in USDJPY paused and the price drop drew a bearish candlestick with a high of 152,822 and a low of 151,809. Even though it dropped, it still formed a lower high. The decline in USDJPY prices is in line with the decline in the dollar index (DXY ) from 104,455 to 104,012.

Bullish sentiment for the USDJPY pair has started since mid-September 2024 after the price touched a low of 139,572, gradually the price tends to rise with higher highs and lower highs. The rising trend in the Japanese Yen exchange rate has given rise to speculation about the possibility of the central bank carrying out currency intervention. This is implied by comments from Finance Minister Kato who stated, that we are seeing rapid and unilateral movements in the forex market and will monitor it with a strong sense of urgency including keeping an eye on speculative trading.

On the other hand, the BOJ may not raise interest rates after slightly dovish guidance from Governor Kazuo Ueda who stated that when there is great uncertainty, you usually want to proceed cautiously and gradually. The statement implies that BoJ needs more time to gain confidence that inflation can sustainably reach its 2% target.

Meanwhile, the Fed is predicted to continue the path of reducing interest rates at a moderate pace. According to the CME group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 bp cut is up 95.5%, while the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged is only 4.5%.

Today there is no high-impact news related to the USDJPY pair, but Friday's market may experience a little turmoil before market closing.

USDJPY D1

USDJPY price movements in the daily team frame are now moving below the upper band line. Bollinger bands are drawing an ascending channel with the upper band line starting to curve downwards indicating reduced volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band line draws an upward channel, while MA 200 slightly below the price draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 75 and VB low shows a value of 32. The difference of 42 reflects a high volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 54 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 66 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market near the overbought level.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 66 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

USDJPY H4

USDJPY price in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the middle band line which is the center of deviation. Bollinger bands appear to be deflating, indicating a decrease in volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band drawing an ascending channel well above MA 200 indicates an uptrend. The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing a slight upward channel indicating an uptrend.

The VB high TDI indicator shows a value of 82 and VB low shows a value of 47. The difference of 35 reflects the high volatility value in the H4 timeframe

Market Base Line shows a value of 64 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 55 with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line pointing to the value 61 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper side indicates a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

There was a gap in USDJPY at market opening, the Japanese election was the reason

USDJPY price at market opening opened much higher than last week's close with one candlestick jumping with a gap above the previous candlestick. Even the USDJPY gap appears on the daily timeframe.

Last week's closing price was USDJPY at 152.291, while Monday's opening price was at 153.166 on the FXOpen platform. One of the reasons for the weakening of the Japanese Yen against the US Dollar was the Japanese election on October 27 last Sunday. Preliminary results show that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) failed to obtain a majority of votes. If the vote results do not change, this would be the LPD's first defeat in 15 years and a blow for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba who has only been in office for one month.

On the other hand, the data report released Thursday showed a contraction in business activity as gross as manufacturing, and also a decline in the core inflation rate below the BoJ's target of 2% has dampened expectations of further interest rate increases in 2024, also putting pressure on the JPY. Tokyo's headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.8% YoY in October compared with 2.2% in the previous month. Meanwhile, Core CPI, which excludes fresh food prices, grew 1.8% in October, down from 2% in the previous month but slightly above market expectations of 1.7%.

Meanwhile, speculation of less aggressive Fed easing supports USD buyers and pressures JPY. The Fed is expected to lower interest rates at its November meeting. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool today, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25-50 bp is 97.7% and a decrease of 0-25 bp is only 2.3%. This forecast allows the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting.

USDJPY D1

USDJPY price on the daily timeframe is now below the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing indicating bullish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the lower band drawing a flat channel indicating sideways or trend transition. MA 200 is slightly below the price drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 76 and VB low shows a value of 34. The difference of 42 reflects a high volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 55 with a slight upward channel, meaning the weight of bullishness is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 68 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market near the overbought zone level.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 67 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

USDJPY H4

USDJPY in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the upper band line. Clearly a price gap occurs in this timeframe. Bollinger bands drawing a slight upward channel appear to be somewhat deflated indicating a decrease in volatility.

MA 50 below the lower band draws a slight upward channel indicating an uptrend market. The 200 MA is far below the 50 MA drawing a slight upward channel indicating a market uptrend.

The VB high TDI indicator shows a value of 81 and the VB low shows a value of 46. The difference of 35 reflects the value of moderate volatility in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 64 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 64 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 59 with a slight upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

Steady gold prices are still moving within the previous range

Gold prices on Monday drew a small bullish candle after a bearish gap occurred on Monday morning at market opening. The gap is faintly visible on the daily timeframe, but clear on the hourly timeframe. The gap occurs because the open price at $2735 is lower than the closing price of the previous candle at $2746. Gold has now formed a low of $2724 and a high of $2745.

Gold's bullish trend on Monday weakened amid reports of weak Chinese demand. data released by the China Gold Association (CGA) shows a decline in demand from the world's largest consumer of Gold in the first three quarters of 2024, compared with the same period last year. Total consumption was 742 tonnes between January and September, which was 11.18% lower than the same period last year. Gold jewelry consumption in China fell 27.53%, to 400 tonnes when compared with the same period in 2023. Gold used in industrial processes reached 59 tonnes, down 2.78%.

On the other hand, precious metals are still supported by safe-haven flows amidst the Middle East conflict which is still ongoing with uncertainty as to when it will end. After Israel launched a retaliatory attack on Iran, Iran's leaders responded by retaliating against the attack, allowing the conflict to continue.

Furthermore, uncertainty over the outcome of the US Election and expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates in November also support the attractiveness of gold as an asset that does not give yields.

In general, gold is negatively correlated with USD, today investors are focusing on several high-impact news, CB consumer confidence, and JOLTS Job Openings.

XAUUSD D1

The price of gold on the daily timeframe is now moving below the upper band line. Bollinger bands are still drawing a slight upward channel with rather wide band spacing indicating bullish sentiment with moderate volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the lower band drawing an upward channel indicating an uptrend market. The 200 MA is far below the 50 MA drawing an upward channel indicating a market uptrend in the 200-day time period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 76 and VB Low shows a value of 57. The difference of 19 reflects the low volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 67 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 67 in line with the MBL indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line points to the value 69 with a flat channel crossing the MBL and TSI indicating sideways with a potential uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price in the H4 timeframe is now moving between the upper band and middle band line. Bollinger band squeeze indicates price movements tend to be in a narrow range in low market volatility waiting for a breakout.

MA 50 below the middle band line draws an upward channel indicating an uptrend market. The 200 MA is far below the 50 MA, drawing an upward channel indicating a market uptrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 75 and VB low shows a value of 44. The difference of 31 reflects the value of moderate volatility in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 59 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 55 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 54 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

AUUSD extends losses ahead of Australian inflation data

AUDUSD price yesterday drew a bearish candlestick extending the bearish sentiment of the previous day. Price drew a bearish candle with a slight shadow at the bottom of the candle with a low of 0.65445 and a high of 0.65850 closing at 0.65597.

The reason behind the decline in AUDUSD prices is the strengthening of the USD which puts more pressure on risk assets, including the AUD. Apart from that, uncertainty about the effectiveness of China's stimulus continues to contribute to the Australian Dollar.

The RBA interest rate is now at 4.35%, Governor Michele Bullock's dovish statement may leave interest rates unchanged in the near term. Current market sentiment reflects a 50% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the end of the year.

On the other hand, expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut may provide support to the AUDUSD pair.

Today investors will focus on Australian CPI data which may have a short-term influence. CPI in this quarter is expected to fall 0.3% from the previous 1.0%. Meanwhile, year-on-year CPI is expected to fall 2.3% from the previous 2.7%.

AUDUSD D1

AUDUSD price on the daily timeframe is now moving near the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing indicating bearish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 above the middle band line draws a slight descending channel indicating a downtrend. The 200 MA is slightly above the price drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 68 and VB Low shows a value of 28. A difference of 40 reflects a high volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 48 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 29 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market in the oversold level zone.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 33 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

AUDUSD H4

AUDUSD price in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with rather wide band spacing indicating bearish sentiment with moderate volatility.

MA 50 below the upper band draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend. MA 200 above the upper band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 45 and VB low shows a value of 27. The difference of 18 reflects the low volatility value in the H4 timeframe

Market Base Line points to a value of 36 with a slight downward channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 32 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 31 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Silver prices fall when gold rises

In Wednesday's trading, Silver drew a bearish candlestick with a shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a low of 33,404, a high of 34,517, the price closed at 33,749. Wednesday's low was lower than Tuesday's low despite afterward buyer pressure.

On the other hand, the Gold price continued its rise and drew a bullish candlestick with a small body, forming a low of $2770 and a high of $2789. Gold and Silver tend to have a positive correlation, but there seems to be a demand anomaly between the two at the moment, even though in the long term, they still tend to be in the same direction.

The anomaly in Gold and Silver prices may be due to consolidation in China's solar industry and slower growth, which will hamper Silver in the short term.

Meanwhile, investors will wait for the Fed's policy which is predicted to cut interest rates in November. According to the Fedwatch tool, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25-50 bp is 95.6%, and the forecast for unchanged interest rates is only 4.4%.

Today investors are also waiting for China's economic data, Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 49.8, the same as the previous revision. And US economic data, the Employment Cost Index, is predicted at 0.9%, the same as the previous revision.

XAGUSD D1

Silver price on the daily timeframe is now at 33,824 at the time of writing in the previous support range. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing indicating bullish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 above the lower band draws an upward channel indicating an uptrend market. MA 200 below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 70 and VB Low shows a value of 51. The difference of 21 reflects the low volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 61 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 60 crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 62 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

XAGUSD H4

Silver price in the H4 timeframe is now moving below the middle band line. Bollinger bands are drawing a slight upward channel with narrower band spacing indicating bullish sentiment with fading volatility.

MA 50 above the price draws an upward channel, indicating an upward trend. The price is trying to cross the line from the upside, changing the direction of the trend. The 200 MA is far below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator points to 61 and the VB Low points to 42. The difference of 19 reflects the low volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows the value 51 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line is pointing at a value of 48 with a flat channel having crossed TSL and MBL from the upside indicating a fading downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line points to a value of 51 parallel to the MBL drawing a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

 

[radex78]

CHF strengthened when USD depreciated ahead of NFP data

USDCHF drew a bearish candle on Thursday with a low of 0.86323 dropping from a high of 0.86659. Even though USDCHF fell, overall it was still within the price range of the previous week. The CHF currency is considered a safe-haven currency because of Switzerland's status as a country with a strong and stable economy and also its neutral political stance in global conflicts so investors tend to buy the CHF currency to hedge.

Yesterday's US PCE data showed a value of 0.3%, the same as expected, 0.3% higher than the previous revision of 0.2%. Meanwhile, the US Employment Cost Index data was 0.8% lower than expected, 0.9% from the previous revision of also 0.9%. Unemployment Claims data showed 216k smaller than the expected 229k from the previous revision of 228k.

According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed's target rate possibilities at the next November 7 meeting, the Fed a cut of 25-50 bp is 94.2%, while the possibility of interest rates remaining unchanged is only 5.8%.

Today investors will focus on NFP data which is expected to fall by 106k from the previous data revision of 254k. Large differences in actual data and forecasts may cause volatility in the short term.

USDCHF D1

USDCHF price on the daily timeframe is now moving near the middle band line. Bollinger bands appear to be deflating, indicating reduced volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market, MA 200 some distance above the upper band draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 66 and VB Low shows a value of 41. The difference of 25 reflects the value of moderate volatility in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 54 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 54 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 59 with a slight downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

USDCHF H4

USDCHF price on the H4 team frame is now moving at the lower band line. Bollinger bands appear to be expanding, indicating volatility may increase.

The MA 50 above the price near the middle band, drawing a flat channel, indicates a sideways market. The 200 MA is far below the price, drawing an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value 62, and VB Low shows a 39. The difference of 23 reflects the low volatility value in the H4 timeframe

The Market Base Line points to a value of 50 with a descending channel, meaning the bullish and bearish weights are in the neutral position.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 27 with a descending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from the upper side indicating the downtrend is in the oversold zone level.

Trade Signal Line pointing to the value 43 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper side indicates a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Bullish gap EURUSD price back near the previous high

In trading earlier this week, the EURUSD price opened at 1.08739, much higher than last Friday's closing price at 1.08309. The bullish gap is also clearly visible on the H4 timeframe.

It seems that the time approach of the US elections which will be held on November 5 provides support for the strengthening of the USD. The US dollar index (DXY) is now at 104.317 up from 103.679. It is not yet known who will be the winner of the US election, the ABC News poll results also show a tight competition between Trump and Harris with Harris' poll results being slightly superior to Harris's with 47.9% for Harris and 46.9% for Trump.

Apart from the US election, another factor driving the USD is the US employment report data. The NFP report indicated that estimated employment payrolls for several industries were affected by the hurricane, which was identified on the Florida Gulf Coast on September 26, 2024. NFP data was 12k smaller than the expected 106k, while the Unemployment Rate was 4.1% the same as the previous period's revision. Meanwhile, ISM Manufacturing PMI 46.5 was smaller than expected 47.6 smaller than the previous revision 47.2.

In the future, investors will also pay attention to the Fed's interest rates, which are predicted to cut interest rates by 25 bp from the previous 5.00% to 4.75%. According to the FedWatch tool, the possibility of the FED cutting interest rates by 25-50 bp is 95.4% and the possibility of interest rates remaining unchanged is only 4.6%.

Today there doesn't seem to be any high-impact news on the economic calendar, in Japan the bank holiday commemorates Culture Day which allows the Tokyo session to be affected by this bank holiday.

EURUSD D1

EURUSD price on the daily timeframe is now moving slightly above the middle band line. Bollinger bands drawing narrower bands indicate reduced volatility. It appears that the gap has crossed the middle band line which is the center of deviation from the Bollinger band indicator.

MA 50 is slightly above the upper band drawing a descending channel indicating a market downtrend. MA 200 draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 60 and VB Low shows a value of 22. The difference of 38 reflects a high volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 41 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 44 with an upward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 40 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

EURUSD H4

EURUSD price in the H4 timeframe moves between the upper and middle bands, a jumping candle appears with a wide gap in this timeframe. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with narrowing bands indicating reduced volatility.

MA 50 below the price draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market with a tendency to rise. The 200 MA is far above the upper band drawing a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 65 and VB Low shows a value of 41. The difference of 24 reflects the low volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows the value 53 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 51 across the TSL and MBL drawing a slight upward channel indicating there is market uptrend pressure.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices remain steady above $2728 ahead of the US election

The price of gold on Monday formed a small candle like a Doji which indicates an indecision market. Even though it tends to fall, the decline is still stuck above the price level of $2728. The price formed a high of $2747 and a low of $2729 to close at $2735. Investors are still waiting for the US elections to be held today.

Gold got a slight boost from a weaker USD as bets on a Trump win were reduced. Analysts estimate that Trump's victory could have an impact on gold because Trump's policies might maintain high interest rates thereby increasing foreign capital inflows.

However, ahead of this election, the USD weakened, ABC News poll results showed Harris leading 48.0% while Trump polled 46.8%. Although it is not certain that the poll results are correct, this has caused bets on Trump to decrease.

On the other hand, the Fed might cut interest rates by up to 50 bp, which could trigger demand for gold because it is considered a safe-haven asset that does not provide returns. According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 bp is 98.0% and the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged is only 2.0%.

Geopolitical risks are currently still a topic of discussion that can encourage gold as a safe-haven option amidst global uncertainty. After Israel attacked Iran, it seemed that tensions were continuing, Iran's leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that anything that disturbed Iran's security would get a devastating response, and maybe they would even change their nuclear policy if Israel and the US as their main allies attacked Iran.

Today's important economic data may be of concern to the market, ISM services, Presidential elections, and Congressional Elections.

XAUUSD D1

The price of gold on the daily timeframe is now at around $2735 moving above the middle band line. Bollinger bands are still drawing an ascending channel with wide band spacing indicating bullish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 above the lower band draws an upward channel indicating an uptrend. The 200 MA is far below the 40 MA, drawing an upward channel indicating a market uptrend.

The VB High TDI Indicator points to a value of 77 and VB Low points to a value of 56. The difference of 21 reflects the low volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 66 with a slight downward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 39 across the TSL and MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line pointing at the value 65 trying to cross the MBL from the upside indicates a weak downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price in the H4 timeframe is now moving below the middle band line and MA 50. Bollinger bands draw a downward channel with wide band spacing indicating high market volatility.

The 50 MA above the price draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market. The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

VB High TDI Indicator points to a value of 74 and VB Low points to a value of 34. The difference of 40 reflects the high volatility value in the H4 timeframe

The Market Base Line points to a value of 54 with a downward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish with the potential for a downward direction.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 40 with a flat channel crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line points to the value 41 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.