Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Japanese Yen Weakens Ahead of BOJ Policy Rate

The volatility of the USDJPY pair is quite high amid geopolitical risk tensions due to the Israel-Iran war, which seems to be an all-out war between the two countries because Iran has rejected the ceasefire.

On Monday, USDJPY drew a bullish candle extending the preceding candle on Friday, crossing the middle band from the lower side. The price formed a high of 144.873, a low of 143.649, and closed at 144.709. Visually, the price is still in the Bollinger band area.

The market does not seem to fully respond to geopolitical risks due to the Israel-Iran wa,r which theoretically supports safe-haven currencies. The market seems to be more focused on the performance of the US dollar ahead of the BOJ interest rate, which will be released today. The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, has recovered slightly. DXY rose to a high of 98.365 from a low of 97.685, closing at 98.135. However, the DXY recovery is still below the EMA 20, which reflects the dominant bearish sentiment.

The BOJ is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.50% as officials have expressed concerns about growth amid global uncertainty over the risk of a trade war stemming from US President Donald Trump's tariff policies.

On the other hand, the Fed is also expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week on Thursday according to Forexfactory. The Fed is also expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% as officials have said they need clarity on the new economic policies announced by President Trump before making any adjustments to monetary policy.

In addition, today the US also released retail sales data by the Census Bureau, which is estimated to see core retail sales rise 0.2% from a previously revised 0.1%, and retail sales month-on-month fall -0.5% from a previously revised 0.1%. More declining US economic indicators could weigh on the US dollar.

Analysts expect the Japanese Yen to remain attractive as a safe-haven, especially if US equities face more geopolitical shocks. Excessive oil price gains could reduce the yen's safe-haven appeal, but a hawkish adjustment in the BoJ's expectations should offset this.

USDJPY D1

The Japanese Yen on the daily timeframe is now between the middle and upper band lines. Here, the Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with a shrinking band spacing reflecting movement in a range with decreasing market volatility.

The MA 50 near the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The MA 200 is slightly above the upper band, drawing a flat channel reflecting a sideways market on a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 57, and the VB Low shows a value of 41; the difference of 16 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 49 with an upward channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish, with a potential uptrend.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 52 with a flat channel wrapping around the MBL, indicating a sideways market where the price is going up and down in a narrow range.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 50 with a slight upward channel, indicating a weak uptrend market.

USDJPY H4

The Japanese Yen on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. Here, the Bollinger band draws a flat channel with a fairly wide band spacing, reflecting a sideways market with fairly high volatility.

The MA 50 is slightly above the middle band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market with potential for an uptrend. The MA 200 above the MA 50 also draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market in a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 65, and the VB Low shows a value of 37. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 51 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 59 with an upward channel crossing the MBL and TSL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 54 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

 

[select]

Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) – 15-Minute Timeframe​

Price at Capture: $3,393.845
Change: +1.900 (+0.06%)

---

Trend Summary​

1. Previous Strong Uptrend:
   • Steady climb from ~$3,320 to ~$3,455 between June 12–13.
   • Accompanied by high volume — bullish momentum confirmed.
2. Recent Reversal:
   • After peaking near $3,455, the price entered a clear downtrend.
   • Lower highs and lower lows developed consistently until June 17.
   • This shift broke the strong bullish structure from earlier.
3. Current Action:
   • Small bounce from recent lows (~$3,370) back toward the $3,394 zone.
   • Structure forming a potential bullish flag or consolidation pattern.
   • If price breaks above ~$3,400 with strong volume, it may signal trend reversal or continuation of recovery.

---

Directional Bias: Cautiously Bullish (Short-Term)​

• Support Zone: $3,370–$3,380
• Resistance Zone: $3,400–$3,410
• Confirmation Needed: A close above $3,410 would strongly favor a bullish continuation.
• Risk Level: Moderate — due to prior downtrend pressure.

 

[radex78]

USD/CHF continues to rise, approaching dynamic resistance 0.82304

USDCHF extends four consecutive days of gains. Yesterday, the Swiss Franc drew a bullish candle with a small shadow on the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.81989 low of 0.81410, and closed at 0.81782.

The Fed announced interest rates yesterday, as expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 4.50%. The FOMC projections showed the Fed expects lower economic growth and higher inflation and unemployment rates in 2025 compared to previous projections. They also raised their long-term interest rate projections.

Economic growth is projected to be revised lower for 2025. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is projected to increase to 3.0% in 2025. The unemployment rate is projected to increase to 4.4% in 2025. The long-term interest rate (neutral rate) projection has also been adjusted, indicating the potential for future interest rate increases. The Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25-4.50%. Several FOMC members saw the potential for further rate cuts in 2026 and 2027, despite lower economic growth projections and higher inflation.

The FOMC projections suggest that the Fed is being more cautious in its monetary policy, taking into account the potential for an economic slowdown and inflationary pressures. They also highlighted the importance of monitoring the impact of the policies that have been taken.

The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is seen continuing its four-day rally. DXY rose to 99.010 near the 20 EMA from a low of 98.483. However, the doji candle suggests further gains as this pattern indicates an indecisive market.

Switzerland is facing deep-rooted disinflation, as core inflation has hit its lowest level in almost four years, and CPI is now negative on a year-on-year basis. In addition, officials have previously expressed concerns over the persistent strength of the Swiss Franc (CHF). YTD, the CHF is up 11% (vs. USD). They have indicated that they are open to cutting interest rates to zero or even negative territory. Today, investors will be waiting for the Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting, which is expected by Forexfactory to cut the SNB interest rate to 0.0% from 0.25% previously. A dovish rate cut could support a move higher in USD/CHF.

The Israel-Iran War headlines are still a hot topic today. Rising geopolitical risk tensions could boost demand for safe-haven currencies and assets, including USD, CHF, JPY, and precious metals such as gold and silver.

USDCHF D1

The Swiss Franc on the daily timeframe is now near the middle band line. Here Bollinger band draws a slight descending channel with narrowing band spacing, reflecting weak bearish sentiment with low volatility.

MA 50 between the upper and middle bands draws a fading descending channel, indicating weak bearish sentiment. MA 200 is far above the upper band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 5,3 and VB Low shows value 36. The difference of 17 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 44 with a flat channel, meaning bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows value 45 with rising channel crossing TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value 41 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

USDCHF H4

The Swiss Franc on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. Here Bollinger band draws an upward channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 is below the price, drawing a slight downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment with potential reversal. MA 200 is far above the upper band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 62, and VB Low shows a value of 23. The difference of 39 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 43 with a flat channel, meaning bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 61 with an upward channel crossing MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 59 with an upward channel crossing MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

US attacks Iran's nuclear site, Bitcoin plunges to $98k

The global crypto market is under heavy pressure after the United States openly became involved in the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel. On Saturday night (21/6/2025) local time, the US launched an airstrike targeting Iran's main nuclear facility, triggering a wave of panic among digital asset investors. Bitcoin fell for the first time after the US attacked Iran's nuclear site.

US President Donald Trump stated via Truth Social that he confirmed that American fighter jets had attacked three strategic sites belonging to Iran - Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. This attack immediately shook market confidence, especially in the crypto sector which is known to be very sensitive to global uncertainty. Bitcoin - which for the past few weeks has remained above the psychological threshold, finally plunged below 100,000 US dollars, and even touched the level of 98.256 US dollars.

Trump seemed happy with his success, but the parliamentary congress had 2 conflicting opinions. The US will be dragged into an ongoing war even though it is not directly related. will cause a waste of foreign exchange.

Bitcoin's plunge signals investors are avoiding riskier assets as geopolitical uncertainty mounts. A wider escalation could see Bitcoin's value drop even lower.

The war has had a devastating impact on the region. According to Iran's official news agency, Nour News, since the start of the Israeli attack on June 13, at least 430 Iranians have been killed and 3,500 others injured. In retaliation, Iran has launched missiles that have killed 24 civilians in Israel, according to local authorities.

The US's entry into direct confrontation with Iran is even feared to be the beginning of a third world war that the international community does not expect.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that his country would not negotiate with the US as long as the attack continues. "Obviously, I cannot negotiate when our people are being bombarded with US support," Araqchi said in Istanbul while attending a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), as quoted by Fars News. This condition creates high uncertainty in the global market, including crypto assets, which have so far been considered an alternative hedge.

BTCUSD D1

Bitcoin price on the daily timeframe is now near the lower band. Price had broken outside the line and drew a long bearish candle with little shadow at the bottom candle. BTCUSD price formed high of 103366 low of 98256 close of 99543. Bollinger band is expanding where the upper and lower bands are moving away from each other, indicating increasing market volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band draws a curved rising channel, indicating fading bullish sentiment. MA 200 below the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating fading bullish sentiment to sideways.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 72, and VB low shows value 37. Difference 35 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 55 with a descending channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish, with potential movement to the downside.

RSI Price Line shows value 36 with descending channel crossing TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 43 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

BTCUSD H4

Bitcoin price on H4 timeframe is outside the lower band, indicating a strong breakout. Bollinger band draws a descending channel with expanding band space reflecting bearish sentiment with increasing volatility.

MA 50 between the middle and upper bands draws a descending channel, indicating strong bearish sentiment. MA 200 near the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 52, and VB Low shows value 29. Difference 23 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 41 with a descending channel, meaning bearish weight is greater than bullish, with stronger downside potential.

RSI Price Line shows value 22 with descending channel crossing TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 31 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold price falls as geopolitical risks ease

Gold price on Tuesday trading fell, drawing a long bearish candle body and shadow at the bottom of the candle. Gold price formed a high of 3369, a low of 3295, and closed at 3322. Gold price crossed the middle band and MA 50 from the upper side.

The decline in gold price may be influenced by two main factors. Powell's comments confirmed that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. High interest rates make non-yielding assets such as gold less attractive to investors.

Although the market is pricing in two rate cuts this year, analysts expect the Fed to start easing in September. Any change in this narrative and these expectations could contribute to Gold's next move. Powell stated before Congress that the Fed should prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming a sustained inflation problem by keeping inflation expectations in check.

According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting rates at its July 30 meeting is estimated at 18.6%, and the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged is 81.4%.

From the geopolitical risk factor. Trump's statement via social media confirmed the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, posting on Truth Social: "CEASE FIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!" This statement seems to have a market response that signals an easing of tensions between the Iran vs Israel war, which in turn lowered gold prices. Elsewhere in China, the Chinese central bank eased monetary policy and injected liquidity into the market.

The ceasefire has pressured Gold and Crude Oil prices as traders unload risk hedges related to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for about 20% of global Oil supplies.

Today, investors will also focus on Powell's testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is now between the middle and lower bands. Here Bollinger band draws a flat channel with narrow band spacing, reflecting sideways market with weakening volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band draws a rising channel, indicating bullish sentiment, but the gold price successfully crosses the MA line from above, indicating a trend reversal signal. MA 200 far below the lower band draws a rising channel, indicating bullish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 59 and VB Low shows value 46. Difference 13 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 53 with a flat channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows value 50 with downward channel crossing MBL and TSL from above, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 53 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the MA 200. Here Bollinger band draws a descending channel with upper and lower bands moving away from each other, indicating bearish sentiment with increasing volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band draws an upward channel that curves to the lower side, indicating a change in market trend. MA 200 near the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market for a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 54, and VB Low shows a value of 33. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 44 with a descending channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 36 with a curved channel to the upper side, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 36 with a descending channel crossing MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil correction after two-day sharp decline

Yesterday's oil price drew a small bearish candle with a shadow on the top of the candle. Oil price formed a high of 65.52, a low of 64.10, and a close of 64.48. The correction in oil prices briefly halted a two-day-long decline after the Middle East ceasefire.

The ceasefire in the Middle East has eased concerns about oil supply disruptions, keeping the price of a barrel for the US benchmark WTI below $65.00. Although the ceasefire may be fragile because Iran continues its peaceful nuclear program, while Israel accuses it of developing nuclear weapons.

Iran's oil supply capacity seems unaffected by the Israeli bombing, and the threat of a blockade on the key Strait of Hormuz has been averted for now. All these circumstances have contributed to bringing prices back to pre-war levels.

Meanwhile, investor concerns about demand remain as the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing. Consumer confidence deteriorated in June, confirming the gloomy picture. Meanwhile, Powell’s hawkish stance in his congressional testimony on Tuesday added to the downside pressure on prices.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has not signaled any imminent rate cuts as he said the risk of higher inflation stemming from Trump’s tariffs remains high. The Fed’s tighter policy is weighing on economic activity and oil demand, adding to the downside pressure on prices.

The latest data from the EIA showed a drawdown of 5.836 million barrels for the week ended June 20, far exceeding expectations for a modest 0.6 million barrel decline. The supply drawdown signals a tightening of supply conditions amid steady summer demand.

The Eurozone economy is stagnant, while China's recovery has not yet been achieved, the plan of OPEC+ countries to continue to increase supply may cause an oversupply of Oil.

Investors today will focus on the final US GDP data, which is estimated to have contracted -0.2% the same as the previous quarter. US Unemployment Claims are estimated to slightly decrease by 244k from the previous revision of 245k.

XTIUSD D1

WTI oil prices on the daily timeframe are below the middle band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws a flat upward channel with a wide band spacing reflecting high market volatility.

MA 50 is slightly below the current price, drawing a curved downward channel to the upper side, indicating a trend transition. MA 200 between the middle bands draws a flat downward channel, indicating fading bearish sentiment in the long term.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 72, and VB Low shows a value of 40. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 56 with an upward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 45 with a descending channel crossing TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 62 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

XTIUSD H4

WTI oil price on the H4 timeframe is near the MA 50 between the middle and lower band lines. Here Bollinger band draws a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment with high market volatility.

MA 50 draws a descending channel above the middle band line, indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 between the middle and lower bands draws a flat ascending channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment ina longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 74, and VB Low shows value 19. The difference of 65 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

RSI Price Line shows value 29 with a flat channel, indicating the sideways market is in the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line shows value 28, drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

USD/CNH steady in the range of 7.1678 amid Yuan campaign

On Friday, the offshore Yuan pair USDCNH drew a bullish candle with a slight shadow on the top candle. The price formed a high of 7.1748, a low of 7.1598, and a close of 7.1707. It is steady between the middle and lower bands of the contracting Bollinger bands.

Amid the USD challenges, China is trying to seize the moment to globalize the Yuan as doubts grow about the USD. According to Bloomberg, Chinese policymakers see erratic US decision-making and geopolitical tensions as the most favorable backdrop in recent years to promote the yuan. The move is aimed at facilitating trade and opening up China's financial markets and embedding the yuan deeper in investment flows.

China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng envisioned a new global currency order in which the US dollar plays a smaller role and the Yuan plays a major role in global capital flows. He plans to set up an international operations center for the digital yuan in Shanghai.

In 2025, the Chinese government is targeting 5% growth, and in the first quarter recorded a 5.4% year-on-year expansion, higher than the 5.1% expectation. However, official annual growth is estimated at 4.5% to 5% by institutions such as the OECD (4.7%), Goldman (4.0%), and Moody's (3.8%), which projected a slightly lower figure.

In the economic sector, industrial and export performance declined in May due to weak demand and tariff pressures. The property sector is also still weak; the Evergrande & Country Garden crisis was exacerbated by liquidation to large-scale restructuring, and this sector is a major drag on growth. Household consumption is -39% of GDP, but stimulus and trade-in have boosted consumer spending. PPI is negative, and consumer inflation remains low; there is a risk of deflation due to weak domestic demand.

Trade tensions with the US continue to be an external and geopolitical challenge. However, on the other hand, energy diversification has helped reduce vulnerability to global supply disruptions.

China's long-term challenges include an aging population, a drastically declining ratio of workers to retirees, and hampered productivity. Suboptimal services in the transformation of the economy from industrial exports to consumption and dependence on foreign technology, especially semiconductors, continue even though the Made in China 2025 program has shown success in high technology such as EV, AI, solar, etc.

Today, CFLP (China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing) will release Manufacturing PMI data with expectations of 49.6 from the previous revision of 49.5.

USDCNH D1

The offshore currency Yuan of China in the daily timeframe is between the middle and lower band lines. Here, the Bollinger band draws a flat channel with a narrow band spacing, indicating a sideways market with low volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the upper band, drawing a downward channel indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 above the upper band draws a slightly upward channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment in the longer period. There is a death cross signal in this timeframe.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 47, and VB Low shows a value of 36. The difference of 11 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 42 with a flat channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 43 with an upward channel crossing TSL and MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 42 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

USDCNH H4

The offshore currency of the Chinese Yuan on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band line. There appears to be a gap down on this timeframe, with a fairly wide gap. Here, the Bollinger band draws a declining channel that is starting to flatten, indicating that bearish sentiment is fading in the sideways trend transition with moderate market volatility.

MA 50 is near the upper band, drawing a declining channel indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 is slightly above the upper band, drawing a declining channel, indicating bearish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 53, and VB Low shows a value of 31. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 42 with a flat channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 48 with a curved channel to the lower side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 48 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

EUR/USD is moving in an upward channel along the upper band line

Yesterday, the EURUSD pair drew a bullish medium-bodied candle extending the previous increase. The price formed a high of 1.17880 low of 1.17078 close of 1.17867 on FXOpen's platform. The euro is likely to remain in an upward channel throughout 2025, as of the time of writing.

The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar was triggered by several factors, including the weakening of the US dollar, which fell by around 10% in the first half of 2025, which was the largest decline since the 1970s. This was triggered by investors losing confidence in US economic policy, including uncertainty regarding tariffs and political pressure on the independence of the Fed.

The second factor is the expectation that the Fed is more dovish than the more hawkish ECB. The Fed is likely to stop raising interest rates and even lower them this year, while the ECB is holding off on cutting. This divergence could cause capital flows to Europe and strengthen the euro.

Capital flows and investments in European assets are also increasing. Global investors have begun to invest in European stock markets with equity inflows of around US$100 billion exceeding outflows from the US throughout 2025. Fiscal stimulus from Germany of around Euro500 billion has also boosted the Euro.

Geopolitical risk is also another reason for the strengthening of the Euro against the US dollar. US intervention in the Middle East has reduced demand for USD so that investors generally seek a transition in the European region at a time of global uncertainty.

Eurozone economic data is also relatively strong, business activity and manufacturing indicators in Germany and the Euro area were positive in June. Inflation is also stable, giving the ECB room to maintain policy, while the strengthening of the Euro is still tolerated.

Today, several high-impact news are the focus of traders. ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell speak in a panel discussion entitled "Policy Panel" at the ECB Forum in Sintra, where there are expected questions from the audience. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI will also be released, expected to increase slightly to 48.8 from the previous revision of 48.5. Meanwhile, JOLTS Job Openings are expected to fall to 7.32M from the previous 7.38M.

EURUSD D1

The Euro currency pair on the daily timeframe is now in the upper band. Here, the Bollinger band draws an upward channel with a wide band spacing reflecting bullish sentiment with high market volatility.

The MA 50 between the middle and lower bands draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The MA 200 below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment in a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 71, and the VB Low shows a value of 48. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 59 with an upward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 75 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the bottom indicating the uptrend market is in the overbought level.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 70 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

EURUSD H4

The euro on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. Here Bollinger band draws an upward channel with medium band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with fairly high volatility.

MA 50 below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. MA 200 below MA 50 draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 74, and VB Low shows a value of 55. The difference of 19 reflects the volatility value on H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 64 with an upward channel, meaning bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 70 with an upward channel crossing MBL and TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 65 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

USD/CHF decline eases ahead of Swiss CPI

The USDCHF pair on Wednesday's market session formed a bullish small-bodied candle, easing the decline of the previous days. The price formed a high of 0.79411 low of 0.79031, and closed at 0.79154. The price has entered the oversold zone according to the RSI indicator, which points to level 27.

US data released on Wednesday, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, with negative nuances much lower than expected, is technically less supportive of the US dollar. However, DXY recovered slightly after dropping to a low of 96.377, rising to a high of 97.152, and closing at 96.810. The ADP National Employment Report showed that private employers lost 33,000 jobs in June. Job losses in the professional and business services sector, as well as education and health services, were the main causes of the decline. The leisure and hospitality sector, as well as manufacturing, showed an increase.

In addition, concerns about the health of the US fiscal and uncertainty about tariffs remain a significant burden on the recovery of the USD. The US dollar is still facing market concerns about the impact of Trump's tax law on US government debt and the lack of progress on trade deals. Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts due to the possibility of increased inflation stemming from Trump's tariffs.

The SNB currently maintains low interest rates, but further appreciation of the CHF could slow the economy. SNB board member Attilio Zanetti suggested that negative interest rates remain an option if needed to maintain price stability, adding that the central bank still has “ample instruments” even though the policy rate is near zero. While such steps are not imminent, the statement emphasized the SNB’s flexible stance and its openness to act if economic conditions worsen.

The IMF cut Switzerland’s 2025 GDP projection to 1.3% from 1.7% previously due to risks from geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, and the Swiss franc remaining strong. Growth is expected to slow further to 1.2% in 2026.

Today, investors will focus on Swiss CPI due out by the Federal Statistical Office, which is expected to be steady at 0.1%, unchanged from the previous revision. The US will also release some economic data today. Average Hourly Earnings m/m are forecast to fall to 0.3% from 0.4%. Non-Farm Employment Change is forecast to fall 111k from a previously revised 139k. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. Unemployment Claims are forecast to rise 240k from 236k.

The Swiss Franc is strengthening its position as a safe-haven currency due to the stable Swiss economy, growing +0.7% in the first quarter. The strengthening of the Swiss Franc amidst declining investor confidence in the USD as a safe-haven amid President Trump's tariff policies, which are expected to increase inflation.

USDCHF D1

The Swiss Franc on the daily timeframe is near the lower band. Here Bollinger band draws a descending channel with wide band spacing reflecting bearish sentiment with high market volatility, with widening deviation.

MA 50 between the upper and middle bands draws a descending channel, indicating strong bearish sentiment. MA 200 is far above the upper band, draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 50, and VB Low shows value 28. Difference 22 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 39 with a descending channel, which means bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows value 26 with descending channel starting to flatten, indicating a sideways market is at an oversold level.

Trade Signal Line shows value 28 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

USDCHF H4

Swiss Franc on H4 timeframe is near the middle band line. Here Bollinger band draws a descending channel with medium band spacing, reflecting bearish sentiment with fairly high market volatility.

MA 50 slightly above the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 far above the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 40, and VB Low shows a value of 23. The difference of 17 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 32 with a flat channel, meaning bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 38 with a flat rising channel, indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 37 with a flat rising channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Silver price rises reflecting increasing demand

The price of the XAGUSD pair representing Silver drew a bullish candle near the upper band line with a small body. The price formed a high of 37,215, a low of 36,913, a close of 37,148. The price movement above the MA 50 and MA 200 reflects bullish sentiment.

Referring to the fundamental analysis of Silver, the price increase was triggered by increasing demand and a supply deficit where global demand exceeded supply for the fifth consecutive year. Demand comes from industrial sectors such as EV, AI, electronics, and solar power.

On the other hand, geopolitical risk is the reason investors are looking for safe-haven assets, including Silver. Geopolitical tensions have driven large fund flows into Silver ETFs, reaching an inflow of US $ 1.6 billion in June.

Raising Silver prices are also driven by a weakening USD and dovish Fed expectations. Weak US employment data in June increased the chances of a US interest rate cut which could lower yields and support precious metals such as gold and silver which do not provide yields.

Some analysts are targeting medium to long-term bulls anticipating silver prices to reach $38-$40 by the end of 2025 and even up to $50 in 2026-2027, depending on the supply deficit trend.

From the fundamental summary, silver prices are expected to remain in an upward trend. However, the current Silver price is at the historical resistance level of the previous price in mid-June. If gold manages to break out, it is expected to rise higher.

Today in the economic calendar, there are no high-impact news releases. Some news of concern is the BRICS Summit involving BRICS members such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and other members.

XAGUSD D1

Silver prices on the daily timeframe are on the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws a narrow flat channel, indicating a sideways market with low volatility.

MA 50 is below the lower band drawing an upward channel reflecting bullish sentiment. MA 100 below MA 50 draws an upward channel reflecting bullish sentiment in the longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 73 and VB Low shows a value of 51. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 62 with an upward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 64 with an upward channel crossing TSL and MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 60 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

XAGUSD H4

Silver price in the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. Here Bollinger band draws an upward channel with upper and lower bands moving away from each other reflecting bullish sentiment with increasing deviation.

MA 50 below the middle band draws an upward channel reflecting bullish sentiment. MA 100 near MA 50 draws a flat channel reflecting a sideways market on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 67, and VB Low shows a value of 40. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 53 with a flat channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 66 with upward channel crossing TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 63 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.