Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Australian dollar strengthens as Donald Trump suddenly delays tariffs for 90 days

Donald Trump's tariff retort has rocked financial markets again. United States (US) President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on implementing new tariffs for several countries on Wednesday local time.

The delay has caused the USD to weaken again, the AUD/USD pair is seen rising, drawing a bullish candle that is longer than the previous bearish candle. The price formed a high of 0.61758 low of 0.59134, closing at 0.61473.

In Trump's post on Truth Social, he decided to delay the implementation of tariffs in full to more than 75 countries because these countries have contacted US officials to negotiate to find the right solution to the trade problems that he has conveyed in the implementation of the new duties.

Trump also wrote that he would raise tariffs on imported goods from China to 125%, effective immediately. The tariff increase for China was imposed because Beijing was considered to be less respectful of the World Market.

On the other hand, China has again retaliated by raising import tariffs on US goods to 80% from 34%, which will take effect on April 10.

Fed officials noted that uncertainty surrounding trade dynamics and inflation limits their ability to move quickly on interest rates. Barkin of the Richmond Fed and Musalem of the St. Louis Fed emphasized that tariffs complicate the policy landscape and could delay future interest rate adjustments.

According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged has increased by 83.0%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 17.0%, which had previously increased due to Trump's reciprocal policy.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, had fallen to a low of 101.837, which then rose to close at 102.993 in response to the tariff delay. Visually, DXY is still moving below EMA 2,0, reflecting bearish sentiment.

Today, investors will focus on several US economic indicators for CPI and unemployment claims, and RBA Gov Bullock Speaks Due to speak at the Chief Executive Women 40th Anniversary Melbourne Annual Dinner.

AUDUSD D1

On the daily timeframe pair of AUDUSD is now between the middle band and the lower band line. A Bollinger band that is expanding very wide reflects high market volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the middle band line, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways. MA 200 near the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 61, and VB Low shows value 33. Difference 28 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 47 with a descending channel, which means bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows value 44 with ascending channel crossing TSL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 38 starting an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend market.

AUDUSD H4

The AUDUSD pair on the H4 timeframe is above the upper band line. The previously expanding Bollinger bands have contracted and are starting to expand again, indicating rapid market volatility changes.

The MA 50 near the upper band line draws a descending channel, which could be dynamic resistance in the present market. The MA 200 is far above the MA 50, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 64, and the VB Low shows a value of 20. The difference of 44 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 43 with a flat channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 58 with an upward channel crossing the MBL and TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 45 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the downside, indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

USD/CNH volatility increases amid the US-China trade war

The Chinese Yuan currency pair has experienced increased volatility amid the US-China trade war since President Trump implemented a reciprocal tariff policy against all countries considered detrimental to US interests.

Last week, USDCNH experienced increased market volatility, along with President Trump's implementation of the tariff policy. Yuan Chona weakened and reached a high of 7.4288 on April 8. However, the weakening of the Chinese Yuan did not continue and turned stronger against the USD after Trump announced a 90-day delay in the tariff policy following 70 countries requesting tariff negotiations. This policy seems to be decreasing investor confidence and causing the USD to weaken. USDNH has been bearish for three consecutive days. On Friday, the pair formed a high of 7.3354 and a low of 7.2784, closing at 7.2784, trying to cross the middle band line from the upper side.

The dollar index and dollar index futures each fell about 0.7% in Asian trading, continuing the sharp decline overnight. The dollar index also fell below 100 points, approaching the lowest level last seen in April 2022.

Investors appear to be worried about the possibility of a US recession, especially when President Donald Trump raised tariffs on China to 145%, while China imposed tariffs of 125% on Friday, April 1,1, from the previous 84% announced on Wednesday, April 9, on US goods.

The USD was further pressured by weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data for March. The dollar index (DXY) that tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies fell below the 100-day low of 99.014, closing at 99.783 on Friday.

The Fed is likely to show a very cautious stance on Trump's policies, even though analysts expect the Fed to cut interest rates sooner than expected due to the increasing economic pressures from the trade war.

The continued decline in US Treasury prices, amid doubts about the US economy under Trump, also added pressure on the dollar. Yields jumped after a massive sell-off in US Treasuries. The sell-off of US bonds is estimated to have reached US$29 trillion. This massive sell-off has rekindled the Bond Vigilante trend, which reflects a massive sell-off in the bond market due to investor concerns over inconsistent government policies. Their actions have caused yields to rise, which makes government borrowing more expensive. Their actions are a kind of warning from the market.

USDCNH D1

USDCNH on the daily timeframe moves near the middle band line, which is often a consolidation zone or mean of the Bollinger band deviation. Here, the Bollinger band expands, which is marked by a wide distance between the upper and lower bands, indicating high market volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. MA 200 near the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 65, and VB Low shows a value of 36. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 50 with an upward channel, meaning USDCNH is in the neutral zone.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 50 with a sharp downward channel crossing TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 60 with a downward change, indicating a downtrend market.

USDCNH H4

USDCNH on H4 timeframe is near the lower band line. Bollinger band draws a downward channel with wide band spacing reflecting bearish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 between the middle and lower bands draws an upward channel starting to flat indicating a trend transition. MA 200 near the lower band below the price draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 76, and VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 41 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 56 with a downward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 36 with a downward channel crossing MBL and TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 39 with a downward channel crossing MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold consolidation is not over yet, but positive traction may support it

Yesterday, gold was traded with a small-bodied bullish candle, which was almost the same as the previous bearish candle. Gold consolidated near its all-time high above 3200. XAUUSD formed a high of 3233, a low of 3207, a close of 3228.

Gold selling is still ongoing, but buying is also within normal limits. Investors seem to still be worried about the potential economic impact of the escalating US-China trade war, which in turn supports safe-haven assets such as Gold.

China increased tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in retaliation for Trump's decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to an unprecedented 145%. This keeps Gold prices close to their all-time highs reached on Monday.

Analysts are concerned about the development of the US-China trade war as the US still imports some hard-to-replace materials from China which has weakened US economic confidence and increased fears of a US recession along with bets that the Fed will soon resume its interest rate cut cycle and reduce the interest rate on loans at least three times through 2025. Low interest rates are beneficial for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Global risk sentiment improved after the White House announced on Friday that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be temporarily exempted from reciprocal tariffs. Trump said on Monday he was considering a possible exemption for the automotive industry from the 25% tariffs because companies need more time to switch to parts made in the US.

The temporary exemption has fueled market uncertainty, as Trump also threatened to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical products in the near future.

The performance of the US dollar showed a slight recovery near the low of 99.014 formed on April 11. DXY on April 15 rose to a high of 100.276 low of 99.479 and closed at 100.159. Despite the recovery, the transaction volume has not been able to reverse the situation; DXY is still moving below the EMA 20.

Today, investors will wait for US economic data, retail sales are expected to rise 1.3% from the previous 0.2%. Elsewhere, the BOC will release the overnight rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.75%.

XAUUSD D1

Gold on the daily timeframe is near the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws an upward channel with the space between the upper band and the lower band far apart, indicating high volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 is far below the MA 50 line, drawing an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 78, and VB Low shows a value of 48. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 63 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 68 with a flat channel crossing TSL and MBL from the lower side, indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 60 with a curved channel to the upper side crossing MBL from the upper side, indicating a trend transition for an uptrend market.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band line. Bollinger bands appear to be shrinking with the upper and lower bands approaching each other, indicating decreasing volatility.

The MA 50 is slightly below the lower band, drawing an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment. The MA 200 is slightly below the MA 50 and still drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment in a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 84, and the VB Low shows a value of 40. The difference of 44 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 62 with an upward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 65 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 65 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Oil prices rise in response to US sanctions on Iran

WTI oil prices rose, breaking out of the consolidation zone, extending the previous bullish candle, and successfully breaking through the resistance zone of 61.28. Yesterday, WTI oil prices with the symbol XTIUSD drew a long-bodied bullish candle with few shadows. Oil prices formed a high of 64.17, a low of 61.95, and a closing at 63.65.

Oil prices plunged to a low of 54.72 on April 9 but quickly rebounded to a high of 62.49 on the same day. Fluctuations in oil prices occurred along with Trump's tariff policy, which had an impact on several financial markets. Another reason is a rumour that OPEC+ will increase supply in May.

Recently, oil prices rose due to concerns about a tighter supply chain following new US sanctions on Iran. On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced new sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports, including measures against a "teapot" refinery based in China. The US move is aimed at suppressing Iranian exports amid rising tensions over its nuclear program. According to a statement from the US Treasury Department, the sanctions are intended to prevent Chinese imports of Iranian oil as President Trump ramps up his “maximum pressure” campaign, which aims to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero.

Elsewhere, OPEC said it had received new plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other producers planning additional production cuts to offset previous overproduction.

On the oil demand side, crude oil prices are supported by optimism amid US-China trade negotiations. China has shown a willingness to engage in talks, provided several key conditions are met. Oil prices have risen more than 2% this week, positioning themselves for the first weekly gain this month.

However, despite the support from the oil price increase, analysts are still skeptical about further gains as OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA), Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan have all lowered their oil demand forecasts due to trade tensions caused by the trade war. Elsewhere, the WTO has also lowered its global trade forecast from previously projecting a 3.0% expansion to a 0.2% decline this year.

XTIUSD D1

WTI oil price on the daily timeframe is slightly below the middle band line. Bollinger band draws a descending channel with wide upper and lower band spacing reflecting bearish sentiment with high market volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the middle band line, drawing a descending channel indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 is above MA 50 but below the upper band, drawing a descending channel indicating bearish sentiment on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 58, and VB Low shows a value of 25. The difference of 33 reflects the volatility value on a daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 41 with a flat channel, meaning bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 44 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 39 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

XTIUSD H4

WTI oil price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger band line appears to expand as seen from the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, reflecting increasing market volatility.

MA 50 between the middle and lower bands draws a curved channel to the upper side, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 is slightly above the upper band line, drawing a downward channel indicating bearish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 63, and VB Low shows a value of 41. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 52 with an upward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 68 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 62 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

Market sluggish due to bank holiday, EUR/USD slightly up in weekend trading

The weakening dollar index (DXY) impacts the EURUSD currency pair following the rising channel. In Friday's trading session, EURUSD drew a bullish candle with a body almost the same as the previous bearish candle. The price formed a high of 1.13978, a low of 1.13573, and a closing of 1.13929.

The EURUSD price movement on Friday tended to be flat, which was seen on the hourly timeframe from the emergence of the Bollinger band squeeze, which reflected very low market volatility. Many European and Australian banks were closed to commemorate Good Friday, which has significantly reduced forex trading volume and caused the market to be sluggish. Today, many banks are mostly closed to commemorate Easter Day, which is predicted to have an impact on the sluggish currency market.

Although there was no high-impact news release today, investors' focus is still more on the United States' (US) controversial trade policies. Although the dollar index (DXY), which is used as a benchmark for the USD against six major currencies, has weakened significantly, the Trump administration seems to be moving forward with imposing tariffs on Chinese ships docked in US ports, further escalating the China-US trade war. The two largest economies could cause a global economic downturn.

Trump’s massive tariffs on many countries, including Europe, could change the international trade landscape in the long term. As stated by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who asserted that the traditional idea of a united West is a thing of the past. She indicated that the European Union (EU) no longer sees the United States (US) as its most important trading partner, following the massive tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

Ursula’s comments came after the Trump administration imposed a massive 20% tariff on all EU goods and a 25% tariff on all car imports in an attempt to eliminate what Washington sees as a large trade deficit. The EU responded by introducing a series of retaliatory tariffs of 25% on US imports. Trump then announced a 90-day pause on most global tariffs last week.

The impact of Trump’s tariffs has been that more countries are trying to approach the EU as their trading partners. Ursula said that trade with the US is only 13%, and 87% of world trade is done with other countries.

Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron urged European companies to halt new investments in the US, asking, “What message are we sending by investing billions of dollars… while they keep hitting us?”

Meanwhile, the US also appears to be experiencing political turmoil, with Trump even threatening to dismiss Powell over his dissenting views on tariffs and interest rate policy. While market participants did not react much to this statement, recently, White House Senior Advisor Kevin Hassett confirmed that “Trump is studying whether firing Powell from the Fed is an option.”

The dollar index (DXY) is currently trading at a low of 99.229, although still within its previous low range but is well below its 20 EMA, indicating strong bearish sentiment, with the DXY likely to fall further if it breaks the low of 99.104.

EURUSD D1

The EURUSD price on the daily timeframe is now below the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws an upward channel with wide upper and lower band spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment with high market volatility.

MA 50 above the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 near the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. There is a golden cross signal on the daily timeframe.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 78, and VB Low shows a value of 54. The difference of 24 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 66 with an upward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 72 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market in the overbought zone.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 73 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

EURUSD H4

The EURUSD price on the H4 timeframe is now between the upper and middle band lines. The Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing reflecting the Bollinger band squeeze signal, which means the market is flat.

The MA 50 is slightly below the lower band, drawing an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment. The MA 200 is slightly below the MA 50, drawing an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment. There is a golden cross signal on the H4 timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 68, and the VB Low shows a value of 53. The difference of 15 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 61 with a downward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish, and there is a potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 61 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 59 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD is slightly down amid talk of Trump firing Powell

Yesterday, the GBPUSD price drew a bearish candle with a shadow on the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.34236, a low of 1.33269, and a close of 1.33285. GBPUSD had previously had more consecutive increases by drawing bullish candles since April 8. However, Trump's talk of trying to fire Powell, which would interfere with the Fed's independence, ended the long GBPUSD rally.

Trump has criticized the Fed leader, calling him a "big loser" and "Mr. Late" and arguing that he has not lowered interest rates quickly enough to support the broader economy. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump may be preparing the ground to blame Powell for the economic weakness caused by the president's tariff policies.

Concerns have been growing that if Trump fires Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, jitters in financial markets - already shaken by Trump's tariffs - will intensify.

According to Capital Economics analyst Paul Ashworth, if Trump is determined to cut rates, he would also have to fire the other six Fed members, which would trigger a more severe market reaction, with the dollar falling and rates at the long end of the yield curve rising. Meanwhile, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., warned that U.S. markets would “fall apart” if President Donald Trump were to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, saying the central bank’s decisions should remain independent of politics.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose from a low of 98.013 to a high of 98.995 as the greenback attempted to recover from the previous session’s losing streak. However, the dollar’s strength has not shown any strong signs of a reversal, with prices still far below the 20-day moving average (EMA).

Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected UK inflation data and a weak labor market have raised the possibility that the Bank of England could cut interest rates at its upcoming May meeting.

Today, the UK and US will release economic data, a Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which measures the level of diffusion index based on purchasing managers surveyed in the manufacturing industry. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell slightly to 4,370 from a high of 4,439 according to Investing.com.

GBPUSD D1

The GBPUSD pair on the daily timeframe is slightly below the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger bands draw an upward channel with the upper and lower bands spaced apart, reflecting bullish sentiment with high volatility.

The MA 50 between the middle and lower bands draws an upward change, indicating bullish sentiment. The MA 200 is slightly below the MA 50, drawing a flat channel, indicating a flat market in a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 77, and the VB Low shows a value of 49. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 63 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 68 with a curved channel to the lower side, indicating a downtrend signal.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 68, drawing an upward channel that is fading, indicating a weakening market uptrend.

GBPUSD H4

GBPUSD on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band line, which is the mean zone of price deviations where consolidation is often observed. Bollinger bands draw an upward channel with upper and lower band spacing that are starting to approach each other, indicating bullish sentiment with decreasing volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band line draws an upward channel reflecting bullish sentiment. MA 200 is far below MA 50, drawing an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 78, and VB Low shows a value of 56. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 67 with a downward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish and the potential for a reversal.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 52 with a downward channel crossing the MBL and TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 61 with a downward channel crossing the MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Silver Price Rises Despite Gold Price Drop

Yesterday, we witnessed something different between gold and silver. These two precious metals usually have a positive correlation, meaning if the gold price rises, then the silver price rises, and vice versa. If gold falls, then silver falls. However, a different condition occurred on April 4, Wednesday, the silver price soared, on the other hand, the gold price fell, which means there is a negative correlation between the two precious metals. Yesterday, silver drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 33,668 low of 32,091, and closed at 33,562. Elsewhere, the gold price plunged to a low of 3260 in a two-day decline in a row.

Why did this happen? If we look at the history of price changes, when the gold price rose gradually in succession from April 9 and reached a new all-time high of 3500, on the other hand, the Silver price moved more in the range of support 32.00 and resistance 33.00. As many analysts predict the price of gold can reach 3500 soon, this value is the target value of many large investors, and when the price of gold is considered overvalued, some traders take profit taking action and diversify by adding portfolios to other assets such as Silver, Bitcoin which are experiencing a price spike.

Analysts estimate that the increase in Silver prices and the fall in Gold were triggered by the easing of the US-China trade war, from the statement of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that there would be a decrease in tensions in the trade war with China. In a meeting with investors held by JPMorgan Chase. In the meeting, Bessent said, no one thought that the current status quo could be maintained. He further added that if negotiations resulted in an agreement in the next two to three years, it would be a big win.

The response in the US market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1,016.57 points (2.66%) and closed at 39,186.98 points. The S&P 500 recorded an increase of 2.51% and closed at 5,287.76 points. While the Nasdaq Composite soared 2.71% and ended at 16,300.42 points. In contrast to gold, which received negative support from the increase in the Wall Street index, silver surprisingly jumped after breaking through the resistance level of 33.00. In addition to the reason for diversifying investment in silver, the increase was also triggered by increasing demand in industries such as Electric Vehicles (EVs), electronics, power and cable, mining, etc. US stocks closed higher on Wednesday, as easing U.S.-China trade tensions and President Trump's assurance that he will not remove Fed Chairman Jerome Powell boosted sentiment.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, rose to a high of 99.939, extending Tuesday's prior bullish candle. Currently, the DXY value is still below the 20 EMA, which may be a dynamic resistance amid bearish sentiment.

Today, investors will be waiting for the release of US Unemployment Claims news, which is expected to increase by 222k from the previous 215k. This data is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions and is a major consideration in controlling monetary policy.

XAGUSD D1

Silver prices on the daily timeframe are above the middle band line, away from the means after the consolidation phase finally broke out. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with upper and lower band spacing that are far apart, indicating a sideways market with increasing market volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. MA 200 below MA 50 draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 72, and VB Low shows a value of 36. The difference of 36 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 54 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line points at 55 with an upward channel crossing TSL and MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points at 52 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

XAGUSD H4

Silver price on the H4 timeframe is above the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger bands start to move away from each other between the upper and lower bands after the price successfully breaks out and ends the Bollinger band squeeze pattern.

MA 50 near the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 68, and VB Low shows a value of 50. The difference of 18 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 59 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 67 with an upward channel crossing TSL and MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 57 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices are reluctant to rise higher but still hold above the 3200 price level

After gold prices reached a new all-time high of 3500, they significantly fell for two consecutive days to reach a low of 3260. However, after that, the decline in gold paused at that level and tried to recover. Prices are still moving in the range of 2600-3370 in the two trading days last weekend.

Gold prices drew a bearish candle at the end of the market session by forming a high of 3370 low of 3265, closing at 3318.

Although the dollar index (DXY) weakened slightly, it did not seem to have a high impact on gold. DXY fell slightly from a high of 99.885 to a low of 99.587 below EMA 20. In the three days of the market, DXY movements tended to be in the range of low 98.863 to high 99.939.

Gold prices seem quite sensitive to Trump's policies and their developments regarding the results of these policies. Along with the decline in gold prices, Trump stated that trade negotiations with China were going very well, which statement is estimated to have caused a weakening of more than 1% for Gold on that day.

According to a WSJ report, the Trump administration is considering cutting tariffs on Chinese goods to de-escalate the trade conflict. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has acknowledged that current tariff levels are unsustainable for both China and the U.S.

Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, China is considering suspending 125% tariffs on some US imports, including medical equipment and aircraft leases.
US Consumer Sentiment deteriorated in April, according to the University of Michigan (UoM), which reported its fourth-lowest reading since the late 1970s.

This week, traders are watching the release of the US JOLTS report for March, the first reading of Q1 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the April Nonfarm Payrolls figures. These high-impact news releases are of concern to traders because they can have a high impact on market responses.

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its May 7 meeting with a 90.3% probability according to the Fedwatch tool by CME Group. US 10-year treasury bonds fell slightly -0.05% to 4.255% according to CNBC data.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe moves between the middle and upper band lines. Bollinger band draws an upward channel with wide band spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment with high market volatility.

MA 50 is between the middle and lower bands, drawing an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 is far below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 80, and VB Low shows value 52. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 66 with a flat channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows value 63 with a flat channel crossing TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 69 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band line. Bollinger band draws a downward channel with close band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment is fading with low market volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. MA 200 far below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating a bullish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 86 and VB Low shows a value of 31. The difference of 55 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 59 with a downward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish, with a potential to fall.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 45 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 45 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Amid the US-China trade war, USD/CNH falls to 7.2563

The trade war involving the world's two largest economies, the US and China, is in the market spotlight alongside Trump's tariffs on many other countries. It started with Trump threatening China with high trade tariffs, then China retaliated with similar actions for US goods, further increasing trade tensions between the two countries, the impact of which may affect other countries that are dependent on the two largest economies.

The Chinese Yuan currency traded in the offshore market had weakened to 7.4288 on April 8, when Trump began to apply trade tariffs to many countries. The USD looked strong at that time, marked by the CNH weakening for three consecutive days. However, the weakening of the CNH did not last long. The price then fell again for three consecutive days and reached a low of 7.2784 on April 11. After that, the USDCNH pair moved more in the range, slowly leaning towards strengthening the Renminbi.

Despite being threatened by Trump with some tariffs, Chinese policymakers expressed their optimism about economic growth. When the US imposed new tariffs, China retaliated with tariffs on US goods. This action again made Trump renew higher tariffs, even though China faced tariffs of up to 245% because it retaliated with 125% tariffs on the US.

China gave a different response from a number of other countries who wanted negotiations and finally there was a 90-day delay in the process by Trump.

Investing.com reports that Zhao Chenxin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s state planner, said he was “very confident” the country would hit its economic growth target of around 5% for 2025.

Others from the International Monetary Fund, Goldman Sachs and UBS have all recently revised down their growth forecasts for China through 2025 and into 2026, citing the impact of Trump’s tariffs – none of them expect the economy to hit Beijing’s official growth target.

The trade war comes at a time when China is struggling with deflation due to slow income growth and a prolonged property crisis, analysts expect Beijing to provide more monetary and fiscal stimulus to support growth.

The US and China will both release key economic data today that could get some attention and trigger volatility, with China’s PMI and the US releasing GDP, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and Core PCE price index, key fundamental indicators.

USDCNH D1

USDCNH on the daily timeframe is between the middle and lower band lines. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with a fairly wide band spacing, indicating a sideways market with moderate volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the price, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. The price crosses the MA 50 from the upper side. MA 200 is slightly below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 64, and VB Low shows a value of 39. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 52 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 44 with a downward channel crossing MBL and TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 47 with a downward channel crossing MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

USDCNH H4

USDCNH on the H4 timeframe is near the lower band line. Here, the Bollinger bands are slightly expanded, with the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, indicating a sideways market with increasing volatility.

The MA 50 below the upper band draws a slight downward channel, indicating a weak bearish sentiment. The MA 200 near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 55, and VB Low shows a value of 32. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 33 with a horizontal channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating a fading downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 36 with a downward channel crossing the MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

USD/CAD is quite stable as many banks are closed to commemorate Labor Day

Yesterday, the USDCAD pair drew a small bearish candle between the middle and lower band lines. The price formed a high of 1.38554, a low of 1.37698, and a close of 1.37966. The price is quite stable, even though the Canadian dollar looks stronger amid the weakening US dollar.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against other major currencies, shows an average value below the 20 EMA line, indicating a bearish sentiment on the DXY. Now the DXY is pointing to a value of 99.607, moving up from a low of 99.143, tending to be stable for six new movements in the range.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) in the minutes of its April 16 meeting revealed a split between cutting interest rates or holding steady due to looming tariff risks. The BOC member who supported the cut said the bank would have the flexibility to reduce interest rates further as long as medium to long-term inflation expectations remain subdued. BoC members who supported no change, on the other hand, wanted more information on U.S. tariffs, favoring a wait-and-see approach.

Meanwhile, economic data released Wednesday showed a contraction in Canadian GDP. The economy shrank by 0.2% after growing 0.4% in January. The impact of February’s GDP data is expected to remain limited on the Canadian dollar (CAD) as investors look for clues on how the Canadian economy is doing after the imposition of tariffs on cars.

On the other hand, US data shows GDP also contracted. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the economy contracted for the first time in three years due to a sharp surge in imports. The US economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of this year on an annualized basis. The negative GDP figure was much lower than the previous period of 2.4% seen in the last quarter of 2024. While the US ADP Employment Change data for April was lower than expected, the ADP release showed a figure of 62k from a previously revised 147k, which was much smaller than the expected 114k.

Meanwhile, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data were 0.0% lower than the expected 0.1% from the previous release of 0.5%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said Personal income increased 0.5% to $116.8 billion in March, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.7% to $134.5 billion.

Today, several European and Asian banks are closed in observance of Labor Day, possibly affecting the volume of transactions in the financial markets. However, investors will pay attention to the US Unemployment Claims and PMI data, which are also important indicators of the US economy.

USDCAD D1

USDCAD on the daily timeframe is now between the middle and lower band lines. Bollinger band draws a descending channel with wide band spacing reflecting bearish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 below the upper band line draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 above the middle band draws a flat change,l indicating sideways market on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 51, and VB Low shows value 27. Difference 24 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 39 with a descending channel, which means bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows value 32 with descending channel crossing TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 34, drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

USDCAD H4

USDCAD on the H4 timeframe is below the lower band. Here, the Bollinger band squeeze is slightly expanding, indicating a slight increase in volatility in the Asian session. Visually, the Bollinger band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market with low volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. MA 200 is far above the upper band, drawing a declining channel indicating bearish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 58, and VB Low shows a value of 40. The difference of 18 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 49 with a flat channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 37 with a declining channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 43 with a declining channel indicating a downtrend market.