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Time now: Jun 1, 12:00 AM

Daily Analysis Forex Mix

What are the prospects for gold prices in 2025?

Gold price is now trading at around $2623 moving below the middle band line. At the end of 2024, the gold price drew a bullish candle with a body larger than the previous bearish candle. Price formed a high of $2627, a low of $2602, and closed at $2623 on FXOpen. Gold prices tend to move in a range during the Christmas and New Year holidays.

The price of gold fell to a low of $2536 in mid-November in the wake of the Fed's projections about future policy on slowing interest rate cuts due to the possibility of higher inflation as a result of President Trump's protectionist policies. Gold however again bounced back drawing a range top of $2725 and hit a low of $2584 in December.

What are the prospects for gold in 2025? According to Goldman Sachs, gold can reach $3000, this institution has entered gold as a top commodity for 2025 because President Trump's policies could risk launching a trade war against several countries and gold is one of the safe-haven assets that is an option amidst uncertainty.

In line with Goldman Sachs, Macquarie Group Ltd also estimates that gold can reach $3000 even though in the first quarter gold prices slackened due to the strengthening of the USD. Meanwhile, analysts from UBS Group AG project that gold can reach $2900 by the end of 2025.

Meanwhile, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) analysts, the outlook for gold in 2025 is a long gold spot with a prediction that gold can reach US$3000 in 2025, which is supported by risk factors. geopolitics and the US as a global asset that is under challenge. Meanwhile, demand for central bank gold from developing countries is expected to rise, triggered by concerns about sanctions.

On a quarterly basis, MUFG predicts the average gold price could reach US$2,750 per ounce in the first quarter, then US$2,850 in the second quarter, US$3,050 in the third quarter, and US$3,080 in the fourth quarter of 2025. On an annual basis, the average gold price in In 2025 it could reach US$2,939 per ounce, an increase compared to the average 2024 prediction of US$2,410. In 2026, the average gold price is predicted to reach US$3,280 per ounce.

XAUUSD D1

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Gold prices are now moving below the middle band line on the daily timeframe. Bollinger bands slightly draw a descending channel with narrowed band spacing indicating a downtrend with reduced volatility.

The 50 MA above the middle band draws a curved flat channel to the downside indicating a trend transition. The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 57 and VB Low shows a value of 36. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 46 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 45 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 45 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

XAUUSD H4

In the H4 timeframe, the gold price is now moving across the middle band line from the downside. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing indicating a sideways market with low volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line drawing a descending channel indicates a market downtrend. The 200 MA near the upper band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market with potential for more downside.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 58 and VH Low shows a value of 37. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe

Market Base Line shows a value of 48 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 56 with an upward channel crossing the TSL and MBL indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 45 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.
 
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The pound sterling is under pressure from the strengthening of the USD in early 2025

Yesterday, the GBP/USD currency pair drew a bearish candle with a long body crossing the lower band line indicating a strong downtrend. Price formed a high of 1.25406, a low of 1.23522, and closed at 1.23779.

On the monthly time frame, we can see that GBPUSD started its decline in October ahead of the US election, which was held on November 5, until it was still extending its decline at the beginning of January.

The strengthening of the USD seems to continue after the New Year holidays. The dollar index (DXY) which tracks the USD against six major currencies rose to a high of 109.533 from a low of 108.267.

In December, the UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed actual data of 47.0 lower than the expected 47.3 and previous similar data. According to S&P Global, the manufacturing contraction is due to weak market confidence and operational restructuring in response to upcoming legislative changes impacting output and demand.

Risk aversion is also another reason investors choose safer assets due to concerns about central bank policy and geopolitical risk tensions.

Today investors will focus on some minor but possibly relevant UK economic data with GBP, M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, and Net Lending to Individuals. Meanwhile, the US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI data which is predicted to fall to 48.2 from the previous data of 48.4. Meanwhile, ISM Manufacturing Prices are predicted to rise to 51.5 from the previous 50.3.

GBPUSD D1

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On the daily timeframe, the GBPUSD pair is now moving near the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with expanding band spacing indicating higher market volatility.

MA 50 below the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend. There is a death cross signal from the 50 MA which crosses the 200 MA from the upside. While the 200 MA near the upper band draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 51 and VB Low shows a value of 28. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 40 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 30 with a descending channel crossing the MBL and TSL indicating the price has entered the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line pointing to the value 37 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper side indicates a downtrend market.

GBPUSD H4

The GBPUSD pair in the H4 timeframe is now moving outside the lower band line. Bollinger bands have expanded to end the sideways market since the Christmas and New Year holidays.

MA 50 near the middle band line drawing a descending channel indicates a market downtrend. The 200 MA near the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 59 and VB Low shows a value of 28. The difference of 31 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 43 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 23 with a flat channel indicating that the price is in the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 30 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.
 
EURUSD rebounds after meeting 1.0247 support, further decline is possible

On Friday's trading, the EURUSD pair rose drawing a bullish candle from the low of 1.02620 to the high of 1.03099 and closed at 1.03066. Even though it is rising, this increase still draws a lower high than the previous candle which drew a bearish candle with a low of 1.02247 which is the current support point. Breaking the support level allows the pair to fall deeper.

Market experts see the currency pair falling further to parity levels due to the divergence of views of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on the monetary policy outlook. On the one side, the Fed is predicted to reduce interest rates more slowly in 2025. On the other hand, the ECB sees a continuation of the policy easing cycle at the current pace.

Looking at the latest dot plot in the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, stakeholders see the Federal funds rate heading toward 3.9% by the end of the year. This has indicated policymakers will only cut interest rates twice in 2025. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed did not change interest rates at its January meeting with the probability of reaching 88.8% while the probability of interest rates falling is only 11.2%.

The Fed's dovish forecast is driven by Trump's inflation-boosting policies such as strict immigration, higher import tariffs, and lower taxes.

Meanwhile, the dollar index (DXY), which previously rose at 109,533, saw a slight decline to 108,922. The Dollar Index is a benchmark for tracking the value of the USD against six major currencies.

Today investors' focus is on the EURUSD pair regarding German Prelim CPI data which is predicted to rise 0.3% from the previous revision of -0.2%.

EURUSD D1

EURUSD 6 1 2025 D1.png


On the daily timeframe, the EURUSD pair is now moving near the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with rather wide band spacing indicating a downtrend with moderate volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band drawing a descending channel indicates a downtrend market. The 200 MA is far above the upper band drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market with greater bearish than bullish potential.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 46 and VB Low shows a value of 29. The difference of 17 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base line shows a value of 38 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 34 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line pointing to the value 36 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper side indicates a downtrend market.

EURUSD H4

The EURUSD pair in the H4 timeframe is now moving slightly below the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing indicating a downtrend with high volatility.

The 50 MA above the middle band draws a downward channel indicating a market downtrend. The 200 MA above the upper band draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 60 and VB Low shows a value of 33. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 42 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 39 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to the value 33 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend market.
 
USD/CHF records two days of losses as Swiss Real Retail Sales increase

Yesterday the USDCHF currency pair drew a bearish candle extending the decline of the previous candle at the weekend. Price has formed a high of 0.91047 and a low of 0.90085 closing at 1.90447.

Swiss Retail Sales increased 0.8% YoY in November, compared to 1.2% expected and 1.5% last. Even though it was beyond expectations, data from the US was the reason for the weakening of the USD yesterday. The US Final Services PMI was only 56.8 lower than the expected 58.5 the same as the previous data revision.

The dollar index (DXY) recorded a decline yesterday from 109,069 to a low of 107,750. The dollar index value is used to track the USD currency with six other currencies.

Apart from the influence of the weakening US dollar, the strengthening of the Swiss Franc was also due to increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Considering the Swiss Franc is a safe-haven currency.

On Friday, the US manufacturing sector continued to contract in December, albeit at a slower pace, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.3 from 48.4 in November. This figure exceeded market expectations of 48.4.

However, the US dollar is still expected to strengthen. The Fed is expected not to reduce interest rates at its meeting at the end of January. In the latest dot plot in the Fed's Digest of Economic Projections, policymakers anticipate the Federal Funds Rate reaching 3.9% by the end of this year, indicating expectations of only two rate cuts in 2025.

According to data from the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the possibility of the Fed not changing interest rates in the January meeting is 93.1%, and only a 6.9% possibility of a rate cut.

Fed officials will be more cautious about their approach to rate cuts throughout 2025. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin highlighted that benchmark interest rates should remain tight until there is greater confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target

Today investors will focus on Swiss CPI data which is expected to fall -0.1%, the same as the previous revision. Meanwhile, data from the US focuses on ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings which may have a direct impact on currency performance.

USDCHF D1


USDCHF 7 1 2025 D1.png

The USDCHF pair on the daily timeframe is now moving above the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing indicating bullish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 drawing an ascending channel indicates an uptrend market and MA 50 crossing MA 200 indicates a golden cross signal. MA 200 draws a flat channel above the lower band line indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 70 and VB Low shows a value of 50. The difference of 20 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 60 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 60 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 65 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

USDCHF H4

The USDCHF pair in the H4 timeframe is now moving above the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing indicating a sideways market with high volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the lower band line drawing an upward channel indicating an uptrend market. The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing an upward channel indicating a long-term market uptrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 75 and VB Low shows a value of 46. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 60 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 44 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line pointing to the value 49 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper side indicates a downtrend market.
 
AUD/USD is back under pressure after rising on Monday

Ahead of the release of Australian inflation data yesterday, the AUDUSD pair fell, drawing a bearish candle with a long shadow on the top candle, indicating buyer pressure was getting resistance. The AUDUSD currency pair formed a high of 0.62882, a low of 0.62279, and closed at 0.62291.

The Australian Dollar experienced an increase from its lowest level for three consecutive days as it received support from a moderate decline in the US Dollar even though Building Permit data for November was weaker than forecast.

The dollar index (DXY) has now returned to a rise at 108.683 from a low of 107.548. On the other hand, the prospect of a slower Fed rate cut and rising US bond yields supports USD buyers.

While US and China trade war concerns may lead the RBA to a dovish shift that could limit the Australian dollar's gains. The uncertainty of President Trump's tariff plans still worries investors to be more defensive.

On the other hand, the Fed indicated that it would slow down the pace of reducing interest rates in 2025. The US central bank is expected not to reduce interest rates at its January meeting.

Today investors will pay attention to Australian CPI data which is expected to be 2.2% from the previous revision of 2.1%. And US economic data ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to fall 139k from the previous revision of 146k, and Unemployment Claims data is expected to rise 214k from the previous 211k.

AUDUSD D1

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The AUDUSD pair on the daily timeframe is now moving below the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with rather wide band spacing indicating a downtrend market with high volatility.

The 50 MA near the upper band draws a descending channel. There is a death cross signal in this timeframe. MA 200 above the upper band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 44 and VB Low shows a value of 25. The difference of 19 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 34 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line is pointing at a value of 37 with an ascending channel crossing TSL and MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 32 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

AUDUSD H4

The AUDUSD pair on the H4 timeframe is now near the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with expanding band spacing indicating a sideways market with high volatility.

MA 50 below the price near the middle band line drawing a flat channel indicates a sideways market or possible trend transition. The 200 MA is far above the upper band line drawing a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 63 and VB Low shows a value of 36. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 50 with a flat channel, meaning the price is in a neutral position.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 47 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 55 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.
 
Gold prices rise alert to FOMC minutes

Yesterday the gold price drew a bullish candle with a medium body and a small shadow on the top of the candle extending the previous rise. Gold price formed a high of $2669, a low of $2645, and a close of $2661. The raising in gold prices crossed the 50 MA from the downside.

One of the triggers for the raising of gold prices is thought to be related to tariff plans. President Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a large number of universal tariffs on allies and enemies. The International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) would unilaterally authorize the president to manage imports during national emergencies.

The news increased demand for US dollars, and the dollar index (DXY) showed an increase from a low of 108.552 to a high of 109.376 due to the market response to demand for US dollars.

Meanwhile, US jobs data Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that job vacancies unexpectedly increased to 8.098 million on the last day of November from the previous 7.839 million.

Other US data ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed actual data of 122k lower than the expected 139k and much lower than a previous revision of 146k. Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims showed actual data of 201k lower than the expected 214k and the previous revision of 211k.

On the other hand, the rise in gold was triggered by demand from China's central bank, a commodity analyst stated that the PBoC held 73.29 million troy ounces in December, from 72.96 million in the previous month.

Gold gains stalled at a $2669 high as gold buyers seemed uncommitted ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. This seems to show caution ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes could lead to a change in direction.

XAUUSD D1

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The price of gold on the daily timeframe is now moving above the middle band line. Bolllinger bands draw a flat channel with moderate bands indicating a sideways market with moderate volatility.

MA 50 below the price drawing a flat channel indicates a sideways market. The 200 MA draws an ascending channel well below the lower band indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 57 and VB Low shows a value of 41. The difference of 16 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 49 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is slightly greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 53 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 50 with an upward trajectory crossing the MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with moderate bands indicating a sideways market with moderate volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band drawing a slight upward channel indicates an uptrend market. MA 200 below the price drawing a flat channel indicates a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 73 and VB Low shows a value of 43. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 58 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 58 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 59 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.
 
The weakening of the Japanese Yen slowed slightly as wage data spurred speculation of an interest rate hike in January

Yesterday the USDJPY pair drew a small bearish candle with a slight shadow at the bottom of the candle. Price formed a high of 158,399, a low of 157,574, and a close of 158,111 on FXOpen.

The position of the Japanese Yen strengthened slightly on Thursday after breaking through 158,550. The strengthening of the Japanese Yen is suspected because the Average cash earnings of Japanese wage data read stronger than expected for November. This gave rise to opinions that spurred speculation of an interest rate increase in January.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda previously signaled that they would hold wage negotiations in March before deciding on an increase. But ING analysts said the case was growing for a hike in January, although it would still be a tough call.

Meanwhile, yesterday's FOMC minutes showed that policymakers were increasingly aiming for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. This was due to concerns that President Donald Trump's expansionary policies could potentially support inflation. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed's probability of leaving interest rates unchanged is 93.1% at its January 29, 2025 meeting.

In the other hand, the dollar index (DXY) which tracks the USD currency against six major currencies rose slightly from a low of 106,940 to a high of 109,375.

Today investors will pay attention to US news data on Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate.

USDJPY D1

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The USDJPY pair on the daily timeframe is now floating between the upper and middle band lines. Bollinger bands drawing an ascending channel with flat upper-side band spacing indicate an uptrend market with reduced volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band line draws an upward channel indicating an uptrend market. There is a golden cross signal in this timeframe. The 200 MA near the lower band draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market with higher bullish potential.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 73 and VB Low shows a value of 38. The difference of 36 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 56 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 65 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 64 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

USDJPY H4

The USDJPY pair in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the middle band line. A Bollinger band squeeze appears in this time frame, indicating a flat market waiting for a breakout.

MA 50 near the lower band drawing a flat channel indicates a sideways market. MA 200 is far below the lower band line drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market with greater bullish than bearish potential.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 62 and VB low shows a value of 46. The difference of 16 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 54 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 54 with a slight upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 53 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.
 
CHF/JPY plunged on Friday amid BOJ officials cautious about raising interest rates

The CHFJPY cross pair at the weekend trade plummeted drawing a bearish long-body candle crossing the MA 200 from the upside. Price formed a high of 173,667, a low of 171,694, and a closing of 171,694. The price at market opening rose slightly to around 171,997.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) seems to still be considering the interest rate decision in January's monetary policy. Bloomberg reports, that BoJ officials are still carefully assessing data ahead of the January meeting, considering raising their core-core inflation outlook for Fiscal 2024 and Fiscal 2025 and considering raising inflation forecasts due to the weakening Yen.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's (The Fed) hawkish shift led to a widening of the US-Japan yield gap, which turned out to be another factor that weakened the JPY lower. The Fed is not expected to change interest rates at its meeting in late January.

Apart from that, investors will also be careful amid concerns about the risk of a trade war and continued geopolitical risks and speculation that the Japanese authorities may carry out currency intervention to support the domestic currency which might restrain the JPY's decline.

Real wages fell for the fourth month in a row in November and suggest widespread inflationary pressures, opening the door for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in January or March.

On the other hand, the Swiss Unemployment Rate rose 2.8% from the previous revision of 2.6%, then investors are waiting for the release of consumer confidence which is predicted to be -35 from the previous -37. Today the Japanese Bank Holiday is closed in observance of Coming-of-Age Day which may reduce the volume of Japanese Yen transactions.

CHFJPY D1

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The CHFJPY pair on the daily timeframe is now moving between the middle and lower bands. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with rather wide bands indicating the market is moving in a range with rather high volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line drawing a slightly curved channel to the downside indicates a downtrend market. MA 200 below the middle band line drawing a flat channel indicates a sideways market with a potential decline.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 61 and VB Low shows a value of 33. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 47 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 43 with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the lower side indicating a market downtrend.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 49 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

CHFJPY H4

The CHFJPY pair in the H 4 timeframe is now near the lower band. Bollinger bands appear to be expanding, indicating high volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line drawing a descending channel indicates a market downtrend. MA 200 near the lower band drawing a flat channel indicates a sodeways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 61 and VB Low shows a value of 34. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe

Market Base Line points to a value of 47 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line is pointing at the value 31 with the channel bending to the upside indicating bulls are trying to leave the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line pointing to the value 38 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper side indicates a downtrend market
 
The price of gold drops and bounces after reaching the upper band line

In yesterday's trading session, the gold price drew a bearish candle with a long body indicating a strong decline. Price formed a high of $2692 a low of $2656 a close of $2662.

On Friday Gold prices briefly rose at $2,697.88, as a solid United States (US) monthly employment report encouraged risk aversion.

NFP data showed America added 256k new jobs in December, while the Unemployment Rate fell slightly to 4.1%. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings rose by 3.9%, down from 4% previously.

The US economic data suggests the Fed will keep interest rates on hold for longer. High interest rates are usually a negative for non-yielding precious metals, but investors are bracing for more volatility ahead of President Trump's return to the White House on January 20.

In terms of geopolitical risk factors, the latest issue is that ceasefire negotiations are progressing positively, with Israel reportedly agreeing to withdraw troops from the Gaza Strip. Quoting the Haaretz newspaper on Monday, January 13, 2025, the Israeli military (IDF) has endorsed several plans for the rapid withdrawal of their troops from Gaza in response to progress in negotiations.

Today investors will also pay attention to US PPI news which is predicted to be the same as the previous revision.

XAUUSD D1

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Gold price on the daily timeframe is now moving near the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with slightly deflated bands indicating a sideways market with less volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line drawing a descending channel indicates a market downtrend. MA 200 below the lower band draws an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 57 and VB Low shows a value of 40. The difference of 17 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 49 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line is pointing at 57 with a curved channel to the downside indicating a downtrend.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 54 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price on the H4 timeframe is now moving near the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with rather wide band spacing indicating an uptrend with moderate volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band line draws an ascending channel indicating an uptrend market. MA 200 below the lower band drawing a flat channel indicates a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 75 and VB Low shows a value of 45. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value in the H4 time frame.

Market Base Line shows a value of 60 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 43 with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 60 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.
 
GBP/USD appears a reversal pattern near the lower band

The GBPUSD pair fell to a low of 1.20998 on Monday, but there was buying pressure which then brought the price to a close at 1.22014 and drew a long wick at the bottom of the candle like a Pinbar. Yesterday the price was still drawing an indecision candle with a high of 1.22501, a low of 1.21376, close at 1.22124 near the lower band. The RSI level showing a value of 30 is considered the oversold zone level.

Yesterday's release of US PPI data showed producer inflation grew slower than expected in December, weighing on the USD and bringing the dollar index (DXY) to depreciate from 109.570 to 109.178. Economists expect the core PPI to rise to 3.8%. Month-on-month headline PPI rose modestly by 0.2%, while core PPI remained flat.

On the other hand, the Fed's expectation that it will reduce interest rate cuts this year is still driving the strengthening of the USD. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed not reducing interest rates at its January 29 meeting is 97.3% and the probability of a decrease is only 2.7%.

Today investors will focus on UK and US inflation data, the UK annual CPI is estimated at 2.6%, the same as the previous period. Meanwhile, the US CPI is expected to rise 2.9% from the previous 2.7%.

GBPUSD D1

GBPUSD 15 1 2025 D1.png


GBPUSD price on the daily timeframe is now near the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing indicating a downtrend with high volatility.

MA 50 below the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend. There is a death cross signal in this timeframe. MA 200 above the upper band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 51 and VB Low shows a value of 29. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 40 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 29 with a flat channel indicating that the flat price is in the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 32 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

GBPUSD H4

GBPUSD price in the H4 timeframe is now near the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with slightly deflated band spacing indicating a downtrend with less volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend. The 200 MA is far above the upper band line drawing a slight downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 50 and VB Low shows a value of 18. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 34 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 44 with an upward channel crossing the MBL and TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line points to the value 39 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.
 
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Currency
Rates
EUR / USD
1.04965
USD / JPY
152.324
GBP / USD
1.25970
USD / CHF
0.89894
USD / CAD
1.41795
EUR / JPY
159.887
AUD / USD
0.63508

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