Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

AUDUSD moves in a range ahead of the release of ADP data

Yesterday the AUDUSD pair drew a bearish candle with a high of 0.65129, a low of 0.64426, and closed at 0.64734 on FXOpen. In the three weeks of movement, this pair tends to create a movement pattern in the range of 0.64336 - 0.65493.

On the fundamental front, the Australian dollar got a boost from gains in Australian exports such as copper prices, while iron ore prices also continued their ongoing recovery, albeit at a slower pace. On the other hand, the threat of US tariffs on China and doubts about the effectiveness of China's stimulus are predicted to be obstacles to Australia's commodity-driven economy.

The RBA seems to still be cautious about interest rates and maintained interest rates at 4.35% in November, it seems they are still concerned about the economic slowdown that shapes its policy. Australia's annual inflation rate fell to 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024 from 3.8% in the second quarter. The declining inflation trend gives the RBA expectations of lowering interest rates in 2025.

Furthermore, the Australian Dollar is also overshadowed by the possibility of a Fed interest rate cut. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the possibility of the Fed reducing interest rates by 25 basis points is 70.3%, while the possibility of interest rates remaining unchanged is only 29.7%. This cut may indirectly provide support to the Australian dollar.

Today we are waiting for Australian GDP data, which is projected to rise 0.5% from the previous 0.2%. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports GDP rose 1.5% in 2023-24 and The Australian economy rose 0.2% in seasonally adjusted chain volume measures.

Today will also be the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which often has a high impact on the market which is predicted to fall by 152k from the previous 233k.

AUDUSD D1

The AUDUSD price on the daily timeframe is now moving between the middle and lower band lines. Here, the Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with rather wide band spacing, indicating a downtrend with moderate but stable volatility.

The 50 MA near the upper band draws a descending channel indicating a downtrend. The 200 MA is slightly below the 50 MA drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 46, VB Low shows a value of 31. The difference of 15 reflects the low volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 38 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 41 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 41 with a flat channel also indicating a sideways market.

AUDUSD H4

The AUDUSD pair in the H4 timeframe is now moving below the middle band line. Here the Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with rather narrow band spacing, indicating a sideways market with low volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line drawing a flat channel indicates a sideways market. The 200 MA above the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator points to a value of 58 and VB Low points to 38. The difference of 20 reflects the low volatility value in the H4 timeframe

Market Base Line shows a value of 48 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 47 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 46 with a sloping upward channel indicating a weak market uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Silver rises when gold is sideways

Gold and Silver are often in line as their movements are correlated with each other, but yesterday there was a slight difference in the price patterns of these two precious metals.

Silver rises drawing a long body bull candle with a long wick at the bottom of the candle. Price formed a low of 30,457 from open 31,088, high 31,472 closed at 31,287, while gold tends in a sideways market.

The soaring Silver price was in line with US ADP Employment Change data released yesterday showing the actual data was lower than expected. The agency reported that the private sector hired 146k new workers, slightly missing estimates of 150k but significantly lower than the previous release of 184k, revised down from 233k.

On the other hand the dollar index DXY was slightly up at 106.720 from 106.090, although this was a limited increase near the middle band line.

Another factor is the geopolitical risk that the Iranian and Israeli ceasefire still has the potential to fail. According to Reuters, an internal Hamas statement reported that the group had information that Israel intended to carry out a hostage rescue operation similar to Israel's nuseirat operation in June in Gaza.

Investors today will focus on Fed Chair Powell Speaks which can provide an overview of the Fed's future interest rates. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points at 77.5% while the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged is 22.5%.

Apart from focusing on Powell's speech, investors today are also waiting for US Unemployment Claims data which is predicted to increase by 215k from the previous 213k.

XAGUSD D1

Silver price on the daily timeframe is now near the upper band line. Price successfully crossed the middle band line from the lower side indicating an uptrend market. Here the Bollinger band deflates, indicating reduced volatility.

MA 50 above the price draws a horizontal channel indicating a sideways market. MA 200 below the lower band line draws an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 67 and VB Low shows a value of 32. The difference of 45 reflects a high volatility value in the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 50 with a downward channel, meaning prices tend to be in the neutral zone.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 50 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 44 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

XAGUSD H4

Silver price in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the upper band line. Here the Bollinger bands draw a slight upward channel with rather narrow band spacing indicating an uptrend with moderate volatility.

MA 50 below the price near the middle band line drawing a flat channel indicates a sideways market. The 200 MA is quite far above the upper band line drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 67 and VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 51 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 65 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 61 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

US jobless claims rise, EURUSD soars

EURUSD yesterday drew a bullish candle with a long body almost without a shadow. Price formed a low of 1.05080, a high of 1.05896, closed at 1.05880, and managed to cross the middle band line from the lower side.

Previously the pair was trading in the range of 1.04607 and consolidated for two days in a narrow space. However, the US unemployment claims data released yesterday has sent this pair soaring.

The data showed that US individual's unemployment claims were 224k, higher than the forecast and previous release of 215k. Weak US jobless claims data has renewed concerns about worsening labor demand.

While the dollar index (DXY) seems to be weakening due to higher-than-expected unemployment claims data, the DXY fell from 106,371 to a low of 105,699.

Next today, investors will focus on other important US economic data which is predicted to have a significant impact on the market, NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings.

Investors will be paying close attention to US Average Hourly Earnings data for cues about the current status of wage growth which is forecast to fall 0.3% from the previous 0.4%.

Furthermore, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to increase by 218k from the previous 12k, while the Unemployment Rate is projected at 4.1%, the same as the previous revision.

Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to reduce interest rates gradually. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 25 basis points at the Fed meeting on December 18 is 70.1% while the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged is only 29.9%.

EURUSD D1

EURUSD price on the daily timeframe is now moving above the middle band line. Here Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with deflating bands indicating a downtrend with reduced volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band drawing a descending channel crossing MA 200 from the upside indicates a death cross signal. The 200 MA above the 50 MA draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 48 and VB Low shows a value of 25. The difference of 23 reflects the low volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 37 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 47 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 42 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

EURUSD H4

EURUSD's price in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with narrow bands indicating a sideways market with low volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line drawing a flat channel indicates a sideways market. The 200 MA above the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 64 and VB Low shows a value of 38. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows the value 51 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 65 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line points to the value 58 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices are still in the range above $2600 when the US NFP is higher than forecast.

The price of gold during weekend trading drew a Doji candle which indicated an indecision market. Price formed a low $2613 high of $2645 closed at $2632 near the open price of $2631. Gold has tended to move sideways in a range above $2600 since November 26.

On Friday after the US NFP release showed actual data was greater than expected, gold prices dropped. The precious metal fell as a labor market report showed that the number of new workers hired was higher than expected. The report showed that the economy added 227k new workers, greater than the forecast of 218k. Meanwhile, the unemployment Rate rose to 4.2%, higher than the forecast of 4.1%.

Growth in the US labor market increases expectations of the Fed reducing interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50%. According to the CME group's Fedwatch Tool, the Fed's probability of reducing interest rates by 25 basis points is 85.1% while the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged is 14.9%. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings edged up 0.4% from the expected 0.3% but were still stable from the previous month's revision of 0.4%.

On the other side, he dollar index (DXY) was at 105.970 slightly up from a low of 105.420. The dollar index began to decline on November 22 from 108,071 to its lowest point today at 105,420.

From a geopolitical risk perspective, gold prices received support from the shaky ceasefire in the Middle East. Hezbollah and Israel tensions have heated up again, with each side blaming the other for violating the terms of the ceasefire.

The Russian and Ukrainian wars create wider risks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that Russia was ready to use all means to prevent the West from achieving its goal of inflicting "strategic defeat" on the country.

Today gold traders will highlight economic data from China, which is a large gold importing country on a global scale. China will release CPI and PMI data which are expected to increase from the previous data revision.

XAUUSD D1

Gold price in the D1 timeframe is now moving near the middle band line. The middle band is a means of deviation from the Bollinger band where prices often consolidate in this area. Bollinger bands deflate indicating reduced volatility.

The 50 MA is slightly above the price drawing a horizontal rising channel indicating a trend transition. The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 71 and VB Low shows a value of 32. The difference of 39 reflects the high volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 52 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 46 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 48 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price in the H4 timeframe is now moving between the middle and lower band lines. Here Bollinger band squeeze reflects low market volatility with movements in the range waiting for a breakout.

MA 50 is near the middle band line slightly above the price drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market. MA 200 above the upper band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 57 and VB Low shows a value of 39. The difference of 18 reflects the low volatility value in the H4 timeframe

Market Base Line shows a value of 48 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 45 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 43 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

AUDUSD rebounds ahead of RBA cash rate

Yesterday the AUDUSD pair drew a bullish candle with a long body and a rather long wick at the top of the candle indicating that after the price rally, there was quite a large selling action. Yesterday's AUDUSD price formed a high of 0.64715, a low of 0.63797, and closed at 0.64387.

The AUDUSD pair has been more in the direction of bearish sentiment in the long term since September 2024. The dollar index DXY is trading in a range near the middle band line, now DXY at 106.174 slightly up from 106.173

Australia's economy grew just 0.3% QoQ and 0.8% year-on-year, falling short of expectations, reviving speculation that the RBA will take a dovish stance at today's meeting. prices for key Australian exports such as copper rose to multi-week highs weak price action in iron ore.

China is expected to add additional stimulus after disappointing inflation figures in November. The Australian dollar is also facing potential challenges from the Fed's policy of providing gradual interest rate policies due to President Trump's protectionist policies. The Australian dollar also faces the challenge of China's economic slowdown. Meanwhile the Australian labor market with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% and 16k new jobs added in October.

The RBA will decide on interest rates today which is forecast to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.35%.

AUDUSD D1

AUDUSD on the daily timeframe moves between the middle and lower band lines. Here the Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with slightly deflated bands indicating a downtrend market with reduced volatility.

MA 50 above the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend. There is a death cross signal here. MA 200 draws a flat channel above MA 50 indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 46 and VB Low shows a value of 30. The difference of 16 reflects the low volatility value in the D1 timeframe

Market Base Line shows a value of 38 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 40 with an upward channel crossing the MBL and TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 38 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

AUDUSD H4

AUDUSD price in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the middle band line after bouncing on the upper band. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with rather wide band spacing indicating a sideways market with moderate volatility.

The 50 MA near the upper band draws a descending channel indicating a downtrend. The 200 MA is far above the upper band line drawing a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 53 and FB Low shows a value of 30. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe

Market Base Line points to a value of 42 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 50 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 48 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

USDCAD is at a high level ahead of the BOC interest rate policy

USDCAD yesterday drew a small bullish candlestick near the upper band line. Price formed a high of 1.41948, a low of 1.41556, and closed at 1.41786 on FXOpen. USDCAD price is moving in the highest area this month.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the USD against six major currencies, rose to a high of 106,637 from a low of 106,040. However, DXY is showing reduced volatility marked by deflated Bollinger bands.

CAD is still weak, one of the factors is investors still predict that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut interest rates again by 50 basis points (bp) to 3.25% from 3.75% at today's monetary policy meeting.

On the other hand, the Fed is also predicted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bp) to 4.25%-4.50% at its December 18 meeting according to the CME Fedwatch tool.

Apart from investors' focus on the BoC's interest rate policy, investors will also focus on US CPI data.

Economists expect the annual CPI to rise 2.7% from the previous 2.6%. Meanwhile, monthly CPI is expected to rise 0.3% from the previous 0.2%. Meanwhile, the core CPI is expected to be the same 0.3% as the previous revision.

Signs of easing price pressures will accelerate the Fed's dovish bet for next week's policy meeting. On the other hand, inflationary pressures that are still high will weaken them.

USDCAD D1

USDCAD on the D1 timeframe is now moving near the upper band line. Yesterday the price drew a small bullish candle indicating low trading volume. Maybe the market will still be waiting for the BoC interest rate policy which will be released today. Here the Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing indicating bullish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 below the lower band draws an upward channel indicating an uptrend market. A golden cross signal has appeared on this timeframe. MA 200 below MA 50 draws an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 75 and VB Low shows a value of 53. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 64 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line is pointing at the value 69 with a flat channel crossing the MBL from the downside indicating a fading uptrend near overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line points to the value 65 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

USDCAD H4

USDCAD price in the H4 timeframe is now moving in consolidation near the upper band line. Here Bollinger bands draw an upward channel with wide band spacing indicating an uptrend with high market volatility.

The 50 MA below the middle band draws an ascending channel. MA 200 below the lower band draws an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 71 and VB Low shows a value of 46. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 59 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 64 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 63 with a slight upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

USDCHF moves up ahead of the SNB Policy Rate

The USDCHF pair yesterday drew a bullish candle with a small body extending the previous bullish candle. Price formed a high of 0.88542, a low of 0.88112, and closed at 0.88402.

The Swiss Franc weakened slightly following US inflation data which was in line with expectations. US Core CPI showed actual data at 0.3% as expected. Monthly CPI was also 0.3% as expected, higher than the previous 0.2%, and annual CPI was 2.7% as expected but higher than the previous period's 2.6%.

The US CPI is unlikely to change market expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points on December 18, but reduces expectations of monetary easing next year which ultimately supports US government bond yields and sends the US dollar higher. According to the CME group's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 98.6% and the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged is only 1.4%.

The dollar index (DXY) which tracks the US dollar with six major currencies showed strength at 106.645 from a low of 106.268.

In Switzerland, the SNB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points from 1.00% to 0.75% today and may leave the door open for further cuts in early 2025 given the weak inflation rate. A large rate cut, which is not completely undone, would shock the markets and hit the CHF.

Besides investors focus on SNB interest rates, they will also focus on US economic data, PPI, and Unemployment Claims, which are likely to have a broad impact on other foreign currencies including CHF.

USDCHF D1

USDCHF price on the daily timeframe is now moving near the middle band line and has crossed the 200 MA from the downside. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing indicating a sideways market at low market volatility.

MA 50 below the lower band line draws an upward channel indicating an uptrend market. MA 200 near the middle band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 70 and VB Low shows a value of 48. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 59 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line is pointing at 55 with the flat channel having crossed the TSL from the downside indicating a fading uptrend.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 52 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

USDCHF H4

The USDCHF pair in the H4 timeframe is now moving between the middle and upper band lines. Bollinger bands draw a slight upward channel with slightly expanding band spacing indicating an uptrend on slightly increased volatility.

MA 50 below the price drawing a flat channel indicates a sideways market with a bullish possibility. MA 200 below the middle band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 60 and VB Low shows a value of 32. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 46 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at a value of 57 with the flat channel having crossed the MBL from the downside indicating a slight fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at the value 57 with the flat channel having crossed the MBL from the downside indicating a slight fading uptrend.

 

[radex78]

GBPUSD plunged after the US released hot PPI data

Yesterday the GBPUSD pair drew a bearish candle with a long body with a shadow on the top of the candle. Price formed a high of 1.27879, a low of 1.26666, and closed at 1.26720. The decline in GBPUSD from the upper band to the middle band line reflects a sharp decline.

The US dollar strengthened against the British pound starting from the previous day, but after the US released PPI data and unemployment claims, the pound sterling weakened further against the US dollar. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices increased by 0.3 percent in 2018 October and 0.2 percent in September. Without adjustment, the index for final demand rose 3.0 percent for the 12 months ending in November, the biggest gain since it rose 4.7 percent for the 12 months ending February 2023.

On the other hand, Unemployment Claims increased by 242k from the previous revision of 225k, higher than the expected 221k. The market response to mixed US economic data brought the dollar index (DXY) up to 107.041 from a low of 106.354. As a result, the strengthening of the USD put pressure on other currencies, including the British Pound Sterling.

Investors still hope that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps at its December 18 meeting. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 25 basis points is 94.7% and the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged is only 5.3%.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) is predicted to follow a more gradual policy easing cycle because UK inflation is still high so the BoE is still on the slow path to cutting interest rates.

Today investors will focus on UK GDP data which is forecast to rise 0.1% from the previous data revision of -0.1%.

GBPUSD D1

The GBPUSD pair on the daily timeframe is now moving near the middle band line. Here the Bollinger bands start to draw a flat channel with tapered band spacing indicating a sideways market on reduced market volatility.

MA 50 above the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend. MA 200 below MA 50 draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 52 and VB Low shows a value of 28. The difference of 24 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe

Market Base Line points to a value of 40 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 43 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 48 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

GBPUSD H4

The GBPUSD pair in the H4 timeframe is now moving below the lower band line. Price managed to break the lower band line ending the consolidation phase in the H4 timeframe which was marked by the Bollinger band squeeze that appeared previously.

The 50 MA above the price draws a sloping ascending channel indicating a possible trend transition. The 200 MA above the middle band line draws a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 67 and VB Low shows a value of 41. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 54 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 35 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 45 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

 

[radex78]

EURGBP surges as UK GDP data disappoints

In Friday trading, the EURGBP pair drew a bullish candle with a long body almost without a shadow. Price formed a low 0.82560 high 0.83208 closed at 0.83181 on FXOpen. The price has crossed the middle band from the downside near MA 50.

The Euro strengthened against the Pound Sterling for the second day in a row on Friday. Data from the UK released Friday Gross Domestic Product contracted for the second month in a row, with manufacturing production falling sharply. This data casts doubt on the UK's economic prospects and adds pressure on the BoE to continue easing monetary policy.

The publication from the Office for National Statistics revealed that the actual GDP data was -0.1%, the same as the previous revision, even though it had been predicted that GDP would increase by 0.1%.

On the other hand, the ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25% basis points on Thursday and is predicted to continue lowering interest rates in the first half of next year.

On the other hand, the BoE looks to move more slowly and maintains interest rates at 4.75%.

Today investors will see the Euro and UK economic data which is the focus of traders, PMI Manufacturing and German services which are expected to rise from before. and the UK PMI is also expected to be higher than before.

EURGBP D1

EURGBP price on the daily timeframe is now moving near the middle band line. There was a gap at Monday's market opening, the open price was below last week's close price. Bollinger bands are drawing a slight descending channel with the band spacing starting to deflate indicating a weak downtrend.

The 50 MA above the price draws a descending channel indicating a downtrend. MA 200 above the upper band draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 57 and VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 46 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 52 across the TSL and MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 41 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

EURGBP H4

EURGBP price in the H4 timeframe is now moving near the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with expanding bands indicating an uptrend at high volatility.

The 50 MA above the middle band draws a flat channel indicating a possible trend transition. The 200 MA near the price draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator points to a value of 67 and VB Low points to a value of 17. The difference of 50 reflects the high volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 42 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at a value of 72 with a curved channel to the downside indicating the price is in the overbought zone trying to go down.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 66 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

USDCAD rises further ahead of Canadian inflation data

The US Dollar seems to be maintaining its strengthening against the Canadian Dollar this week. Yesterday USDCAD rose drawing a bullish candle with a small body extending the previous increase. Price formed a low of 1.42166, a high of 1.42704, and closed at 1.42437. Prices are at their highest peak throughout 2024.

One of the reasons for the weakening of the Canadian dollar is the divergence in policy between the Fed and the BoC, and US President-elect Trump's threat to increase tariffs on Canadian products. Sometime after Trump stated tariffs on imports from Canada, the market response caused the Canadian dollar to depreciate against the US dollar, and it seems that this effect is still ongoing.

The Fed is predicted to cut interest rates more carefully next year considering that Trump's deeper protectionist policies could cause inflation to rise. Even though it is predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow. The CME group's Fedwatch tool puts the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 95.4% and the probability of rates remaining unchanged at just 4.6%.

On the other hand, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 50 bp last week for the second time in a row. The Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates by 1.75% to 3.25% since June and is likely to cut them even lower.

Today investors will focus on Canadian inflation data and American retail sales which may be triggers for currency changes.

Canada's CPI is forecast to fall 0.1% from the previous 0.4%. Median CPI is expected to be 2.4% from the previous 2.5% while Trimmed CPI is predicted to be the same as the previous 2.6%.

Meanwhile, US Core Retail Sales are predicted to increase by 0.4% from the previous 0.1%, and retail sales which measure Change in the total value of sales at the retail level are expected to increase by 0.6% from the previous 0.4%.

USDCAD D1

USDCAD price on the daily timeframe is moving near the upper band line. Here the Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing indicating an uptrend with high volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band drawing an ascending channel indicates an uptrend market. The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing a slight upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 74 and VB Low shows a value of 53. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 64 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line is down to 71 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market in the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line points to the value 69 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

USDCAD H4

USDCAD price in the H4 timeframe is now moving between the upper and middle band lines. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing indicating a high volatility market uptrend.

MA 50 below the middle band line draws an upward channel indicating an uptrend market. MA 200 below the lower band draws an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 70 and VB Low shows a value of 53. The difference of 17 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 61 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 62 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 62 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.