Technical Analysis (Volume Spread Analysis) - EURUSD [Short Term]

The highlighted bars are indications of major weakness and they come at a level established for a couple months to be a strong resistance level. I would suspect that the market will rebound up temporarily, at least up to 1.3170 before any further down move is possible.

Remember this is short term, this downtrend will not be absorbed by the current stalling action but it will definitely delay it.

Notice the high volume on the highlighted bar closest to the right-hand side of the screen - this coupled with the close being almost in the middle of the bar means there was a significant amount of hidden buying. The 'smart money' (large institutional players) in the market hide there activity with hidden buying and selling.

DO NOT sell before a small move up.



The resistance created in the highlighted area from January must be broken before any further downmove can resume and the current bar configuration, namely the large volume and hidden buying in the bars depicted above, tells us there are not enough sellers present to push below the current level. BUY - temporarily.

Temporary upmove in EURUSD has commenced as stated and it is clear from the hidden selling in the high volume bars of this small retracement that it will be short lived [Note the highlighted bars which show significantly high volume but close well off their highs]. I expect we will see price dramatically repelled if it gets up to the 1.3170 area (next area of major selling pressure) as was stated yesterday.

I pocketed over 50 pips in this upmove but it is now time to close your buy trades and wait for a solid sell configuration - wait for sellers to take over in force before entering a trade. Basically this is now a waiting game, we must wait until all the weak buying has completely dried up to minimize drawdown before entering a sell.

Next, look for a failure to the upside and sellers to take over.



If we see sellers take over at the current level we can expect a break of the previous support and a drop much older levels, but I suspect we'll see the buyers taken out at higher levels before a drop - maybe 30-40 pips higher - but too risky at this juncture to profit from buys given all the hidden selling.

The down move going towards the major resistance area of 1.3030 - 1.3015 has begun. This is a great opportunity to make 50 pips. It would be a good opportunity to sell here:

There very well might be a buy opportunity if price floats down to previous lows but the only way to be absolutely sure sellers won't take over at that level is to wait and watch what happens when price gets there. Do not trade in anticipation of something happening trade after the market shows you what IS happening.

For a buy I would need to see some major rejection of a further down move - think massive failure bar like last week with high volume because the selling would have to be absorbed and together with the public pressure to sell volume would be high.

I suspect we won't see any strong buy opportunities however, maybe a small bounce, but it would be too risky to take a buy at this level until something major happens I'd say. More likely is a sell off.

Notice that after last weeks rejection (our buy profits that we took) price has meandered down without much drama, know why? Because the smart money have done their work well, covered the buys and with trap up moves etc. and this is their profit taking mode, meaning price will simply drift down without much resistance and with medium to low volume - that's what I think might happen this week - still in a range of course, but gradually down so any buys would not be a good idea in my opinion (unless we see some major rejection accompanied by high volume).