Journal of ExpertTrader

[ExpertTrader]

I created this thread for the purpose of:

1) Keep tracks of my trading - with EA, manual or Semi-auto
2) To share information - lots of information
3) To zoom in and be focus on what's working and what's not
4) To have a Team of ExpertTraders - (on this I have big vision - read more)

I have been trading for more than 3 years -

For anyone who would like to post in this thread - I hope it should be useful - not a simple one or two lines - it has to be a constructive comment or a critic does not matter, but you must have a point for us to think together.

Let's share -

__________________
- I give therefore I get-

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[ExpertTrader]

Saya akan campurkan English and Malay dalam penulisan saya, supaya kita boleh improve English bersama.

Journal ni kira agak advance -

tapi kira akan log kan segala pemikiran saya tentang forex trading.

It is a business that I fall in love - somehow.

Start.

[ExpertTrader]

Saya akan mulakan journal ni dengan perbincangan tentang indicators.

Adakah Indikator berguna ?
Apa Indikator yang terbaik ?
Apa itu Lagging Indikator?
Apa itu Leading Indikator?

Berapa ratus Indikator ada kat market?


Kebanyakan indicators adalah lagging - sebab indicators adalah dibuat dari Price Action yang kemudian dengan menggunakan mathematical calculations, programmers/traders membuat indikator tersebut berdasarkan apa objective yang hendak di capai.

Saya sendiri telah ada beratus-ratus jenis indikator sejak trading 3 tahun yang dulu - namun - apa indikator yang reliable pada saya so far ?

NONE.

Ye, takde.

Lagging indicators bermaksud indicator yang menunjukkan past history. Dan 99% indicator yang ada kat market memang lagging.

Leading indicators adalah indicator yang boleh menunjukkan masa depan.

Ada ke ?

Ada -

Bagi saya : Demark Line indicators - sila ambik attachment dan set trendline = true dan perhatikan hasilnya.

Lagi - a simple trendline.

Disebabkan Demark Line menggunakan trendline (etc) ianya dapat memberitahu kita samada the trend boleh break the trendline ke atas atau ke bawah atau tidak dan berdasarkan info tersebut - trade boleh di buat.


So, apa indikator yang saya pakai kalau manual trade -

Price Action.

Apa itu Price Action.

Nampak price naik - kita buy, nampak turu - kita sell.

Based on my readings, professional traders trade with simplicity and they dont overcomplicate matters.

Ada satu indicator yang dipanggil CSI indicator - Amat menarik

Panggil budak 5 tahun masuk, dan suruh dia tengok chart kita tak kira apa pair dan tak kira apa TimeFrame.

Suruh dia bagitau kita trend naik atau turun.

Itu dia CSI kita - budak tu mesti jawab betul punya.

CSI indicator - buka chart apa pair atau apa timeframe sekalipun, kalau price di sebelah kiri screen dibawah dan price di sebelah kana screen di atas itu maknanya trend menaik dan juga sebaliknya.

[ExpertTrader]

This is the topic that normally will draw a lot of attention especially when the owner decided to display all the trading history regardless how long.

They will show you how good the EA is and etc etc. The discussion about EA will never stop, I guess.

But, truly - I have my own opinion about EA.

An EA that is workable can be shown in live account - login as investor and see the trade running month after month at least 1 year, but even then, cannot guarantee that the EA will be profitable later.

The reason - no one can guarantee the success of any EA including the creator of the EA.

I myself have personally written at least 500 EAs based on all kinds of trading system especially my own trading systems - so far, only 2-3 is profitable and even then, cannot be left alone. It has to be monitored. Sometimes the market can present a Tsunami Wave but sometime it can be as tranquil as the water in the Lake on top of the mountain.

There are many many EAs that caught attention by all forex traders - google in the internet but one useful site that I found is at the forexpeacearmy EA comparison - please google it and find for yourself.

Why EA ?

Nobody wants to stick their time infront of the PC screen 24hours a day.

So my conclusion is- we are far better off to trade with an EA but it needs to be monitored at least once a day.

What's the Best EA so far ?

To me, I have not found any yet.

There is this FxGenius EA that somebody made hu ha about it - till now nobody can really see it performs in live or find the master slave configuration that works with Live account.

That's why until now, every single day I created an EA (probably 3-5 EAs per day) to test the Trading strategies that I have - but still I cannot make an EA 'yet' that can give consistent profit day in day out for 3 years backtested and forwardtested.

Probably by having this journal I can achive my goal.

The keyword is consistent profit week in week out, month in and month out and year in and year out.

It can have negative , yes, but the overall at least per week should be positive. That's what we all want. An EA that is profitable -

[ExpertTrader]

Martingle EA -

Ini adalah jenis EA yang akan buka position semakin besar (doubling or not) sehingga all open position close with positive.

Saya nampak ramai traders malaysia memakai EA jenis ini dan dapat profit dalam 2-4 minggu atau 2 bulan ke 3 bulan mungkin dan dapat mengeluarkan wang kemabli -

tetapi selepas itu -

Bila market start trending in one direction - Margin Call.

Saya perhatikan ramai - tersangat ramai traders yang kena penangan Martingle EA ini.

Ianya menarik perhatian sebab dekat sikit kepada 'skim cepat kaya' - dalam 2 minggu MEMANG boleh dapat 100% modal kembali atau lebih.

Tapi: Tidak Consistent.

Namun - bagi saya, jika ada yang pandai yang boleh melihat dalam sehari ke hadapan yang market akan trending dan close all positions sebelum market buka esoknya - berkemungkinan that consistency boleh di capai.

Tapi mungkin agak sukar - kerana tiada sapa tahu future price. Agak boleh, tepat 100% tidak -

[ExpertTrader]

Pengalaman saya membaca dari pelbagai forum dapatlah saya listkan beberapa traders or creators of trading system yang boleh di ambik buah fikirannya meskipun bukan 100% :

(sila google untuk dapatkan di forum yang mana)

1) Mystic Genie - pernah membuat from 1K USD to 100K Usd within one week - tidak selalu tiap2 minggu - tetapi mungkin dalam 3 bulan sekali - another time 1K usd to 60K USD within one week also. This guy uses Demark Line indicator.

2) Trader101 - (simple trading method with trader101)the creator of basket trading system with IA. Buka 7 pairs Sell dan 7 pairs Buy dan make decision on overall trending - sila rujuk forum tersebut untuk pengetahuan lanjut. Saya percaya Encik Lukpayat dan Team Kuda - menggunakan, mengemaskini, memodify untuk lebih mengancam berdasarkan pada trading system ini.

3) James16 - the PinBar, etc - yang ni adalah asas Bacaan kepada semua - di dalamnya ada pelbagai information dan ianya adalah thread yang paling lama di buka sejak retail forex ni di buka kepada umum.

4) James IB - saya panggil dia James IB (40 - 100 pips a day in babypips) sebab dulu saya pernah menggunakan teknik dia dalam trading saya walaupun sekejap - menggunakan Inside Bar dan juga Stochastic - very simple system - profitable or not - depends!

5) Dominic Millan - ni agak terbaru - the creator of FxGenius or FxRobot - walaupun EAnya belum dapat dipastikan oleh kita samada beroleh profit in live or not, the very nature of its concept is really open up some ideas for me - the Brokers Comparison, instead of we play by the broker's game - we are now sitting at the Broker's game - we play with the broker's unwritten rule, that is what I like about this concept

6) Sparxfx - the master of correlation but somehow his thread I cannot find it anymore; the Correlation that I have involved myself very deeply about a year - the EURUSD USDCHF and EURCHF triangulation mainly (of course they are other triangulation relationship) -


Selain dari list di atas - belum ada lagi yang saya boleh refer atau dijadikan bahan rujukan

[BudakFx]

Originally Posted by ExpertTrader
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I created this thread for the purpose of:

1) Keep tracks of my trading - with EA, manual or Semi-auto
2) To share information - lots of information
3) To zoom in and be focus on what's working and what's not

I have been trading for more than 3 years -

For anyone who would like to post in this thread - I hope it should be useful - not a simple one or two lines - it has to be a constructive comment or a critic does not matter, but you must have a point for us to think together.

Let's share -

salam tt

teruskan
usaha
anda...

dari
gaya
penulisan
bukan
calang2
trader
nie..

semoga
dapat
manfaat
bersama...


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dapat 15 line (jgn mare tt,gurau2 je)
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[mtvortex]

Originally Posted by ExpertTrader
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Pengalaman saya membaca dari pelbagai forum dapatlah saya listkan beberapa traders or creators of trading system yang boleh di ambik buah fikirannya meskipun bukan 100% :


6) Sparxfx - the master of correlation but somehow his thread I cannot find it anymore; the Correlation that I have involved myself very deeply about a year - the EURUSD USDCHF and EURCHF triangulation mainly (of course they are other triangulation relationship) -


Selain dari list di atas - belum ada lagi yang saya boleh refer atau dijadikan bahan rujukan

yg saya boldkan tu, agak menarik perhatian saya. sebabnya saya tgh study teknik ni 2-3 minggu lepas..but not triangulation. saya cuma fokus kepada eurusd dan usdchf.
negative corr yg tinggi antara ke-2-dua pair. S/R untuk eurusd berkemungkinan besar akan menjadi R/S untuk usdchf (provided that you are weighting,scaling these pairs to the same number..)
still foward testing teknik ni..

Leading indicators adalah indicator yang boleh menunjukkan masa depan.

Ada ke ?

Ada -

Bagi saya : Demark Line indicators - sila ambik attachment dan set trendline = true dan perhatikan hasilnya.

Lagi - a simple trendline.

Disebabkan Demark Line menggunakan trendline (etc) ianya dapat memberitahu kita samada the trend boleh break the trendline ke atas atau ke bawah atau tidak dan berdasarkan info tersebut - trade boleh di buat.

Trendline..topik yg menarik..kalau boleh tt share teknik TL yg tt tau..yg kebanyakkan trader guna Linear TL.
Apa pendapat TT tentang Logarithmic dan Polynomial TL?

[ExpertTrader]

Ok - probably enough of the rambling - mrvortex - excuse me that I have to postpone answering your question to next next post - wait for a while.

I reset all my trading strategy to give the numbering on this journal looks good.

Strategy No.1 - I call it IB the BUS STOP - (remember ExpertTrader strategy no 1 - IB the BUS STOP).

While reading please refer to picture attached below.

My TimeFrame in almost all my strategy is 1Hr - same goes with this strategy #1.

IB or Inside Bar is defined as the Bar length that is less than or equal than the previous bar and it does not go above the previous bar more than 1 pip or go below than 1 pip.

Apa yang anda kena perhatikan adalah bar yang lebih kecil dan dalam keadaan 'di dalam' atau 'tersimpan within' - previous bar nya.

Chart di bawah menunjukkan kesemua IB yang terdapat pada minggu lepas - 21 Dec hingga 24 Dec 2009.

The Trading Rules :

1) Hanya selepas IB dijumpai dan trade bermula selepas IB bar is closed. Maksudnya selepas IB bar.

2) Jika price bergerak melebihi paras atas IB, buy dan jika bergerak melebihi paras bawah IB, sell. Melebihi bermaksud, sekurang-kurangnya 1 pip (di atas atau di bawah)

3) Close Trade sehingga another IB is found - close no matter what (profit or loss). Satu je exception itupun seboleh-bolehnya 5% of the time - jika profit dah banyak (lebih 30 pips) dan berjumpa dengan Pin Bar dan profit kita pulak semakin kurang. Contoh adalah antara IB ke 2 dan ke 3 (sila rujuk chart).

4) The reverse martingle a bit - jika selepas BUY sebab bar selepas itu melebihi atas IB dan kemudian price retreat (turun kembali ) dan melepasi pula bawah IB, maka buka double lot dari yang asal. Jika price naik pula di atas, sebelum membuka double lot dari sebelumnya (maknanya at 0.4 mini lot dari first position), check dahulu samada kita dekat tight consolidation atau tidak. Rule no 4 ni agak tricky - so disini terletak challengenya. Untuk mengelak keadaan no 4 ni terjadi, jangan trade semasa volatility rendah - bar kecik2 dan price tak bergerak.

5) Rule for MM. For 500usd as starting buka cuma 0.01 Standard Lot (atau 0.1 mini Lot). Ratiokan berdasarkan 500usd tersebut. Maksudnya jika equity anda ada 250usd, buka 0.05 mini lot. Tak paham baca berkali-kali. Pasal Leverage - sila select leverage terbesar yang Broker anda bagi - 1:400 atau 1:500.

Itu sahaja.

Untuk chart di bawah selama seminggu ini, rule no 4 ada terjadi sekali iaitu di antara IB 4 dan IB no 5, tapi jika anda tengok past history akan ada banyak keadaan no. 4 di atas.

Perhatikan - adakah strategy ini menguntungkan.

Sebelum bertanya macam2 baca dulu betul2 dan pahamkan.

Kenapa saya panggil IB the BUS STOP sebab, selepas trending atau di hujung ranging, price akan membentuk IB, di mana market 'pause' seketika - analogy lainnya price (atau bus dalam analagy) ini stop seketika - sebelum bergerak kembali samada sama arah atau berlainan arah.

Nota : antara IB 2 dan IB 3 ada pin bar - sila dapatkan pin bar tersebut - di situ kita close trade - ini homework kepada para pembaca.



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Jika anda dapati strategy ini boleh menguntungkan, trade in demo - dah confident baru masuk live. Kalau live dah untung - sedekah pahala fatihah kepada saya (dengan sesungguhnya) - moga kita sama2 diberkati -

[ExpertTrader]

This is Christmas holiday - dont know what to do - so I develop an EA based on Strategy#1 - even though I am quite tired of making EA - just to see whether this strategy 'has' the 'edge' to trade manual.

I have known throughout time, no matter how good the trading strategy is, an EA that follow the EXACT mechanical rule is difficult to get because a good trading strategy always require a bit (not all the time, but some of the time) human 'senses' - that cannot be achieved by robot.

Let us see.

I start this EA with equity of 500usd - let see what happen in one month.

(Note that this EA does not follow exactly the rule ESPECIALLY on the rule that close whenever seeing another IB at profit or at loss, and also do not open whenever there is TIGHT consolidation - this is where the human intervention is needed - it also does not detect the PinBar as the rule mention for this trading system)


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Looking good so far..


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Looking very good so far..


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Conclusion :

I am correct to say that watch out for tight consolidation - do not trade that period as we see the failure of this EA at the end of the month.

Nonetheless based on the performance of this EA - nearly 100% in one month - I strongly believe this manual strategy has a lot of potential - give it a try bro..

Before somebody ask question - the EA that I develop is for me only - it is used to normally test a strategy that I develop - and it is not for somebody to use and get 'stuck' with an EA that is not working - you have to thank me that I dont give away a dangerous 'thing' to you - that can burn account -

Like I said before, I use my EA in a semi-manual mode - or semi-auto mode - but,

in my opinion, having an EA is not important, having a good Trading Strategy is the ONE that is UTMOST important. EA is just secondary.

It is used so that u are not stick or glue to PC all the time. TQ.