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  #1741  
Old 21-09-2017, 11:43 PM
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The Federal Reserve's decision as of September 20, 2017

In 2017, while maintaining the base interest rate within the target range of 1.00% -1.25%, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve reacted to its decision, along with the current situation in the country. The Fed noted the continued increase of the economic activity at a moderate pace this year. There is a further improvement in the labor market environment due to continued strong job growth in the recent months while maintaining low unemployment rate. The Fed stated that during the period of commission meetings, family expenses showed moderate expansion, and the growth of investment by business structures has increased significantly in the recent quarters. The Fed was considered the expectations for long-term inflation as stable. At the same time, the total inflation and basic inflation are calculated on a 12-month basis, this year and remain below 2%, without considering the energy and food prices. Compensatory has the same impact on inflation from the markets and continuously implemented in the near term.In accordance with its authority, the Fed seeks to promote maximum employment and price stability. While Hurricanes "Harvey", "Irma" and "Maria" caused a large-scale destruction in many regions, leading to a significant damage. Eliminating the consequences of economic hurricanes and restoring infrastructure will affect the economic activity in the near future, but the previous experiences indicate that the impact of hurricanes is unlikely to have a significant effect on the stability of the national economy in the medium term. Therefore, the Fed still expects that the gradual regulation of the monetary market will expand the economic activity at a moderate pace and would further strengthen the labor market. Higher prices for gasoline and some other goods after hurricanes are possible to increase the inflation for a short period, however, without considering this effect. However, it should stabilize near the designated 2% target level in the medium term term. Short-term risks for the economic outlook appeared to be fairly balanced, but the Fed will continue to closely monitor inflation. Considering the already achieved and expected parameters of the labor market, the Fed decided to keep the interest rate in the range of federal funds at 1.00% -1.25%. The basic principles of monetary policy will remain flexible enough, thereby providing support for further improvement to some extent of labor market conditions, and a steady return of inflation to the level of 2%.In determining the timing and scope of the future regulation, the Fed will be guided by both achieved and expected progress in moving towards the long-term goals of maximum employment and inflation at 2%. This approach will be based on a wide range of information, including parameters of labor market conditions, indicators of inflationary pressures, inflation expectations, financial and international events. The Fed will closely monitor the actual and expected inflationary process. The Fed expects that economic conditions will evolve by ensuring a smooth hike in the interest rate for federal funds. This will probably remain below the levels for some time and expect to prevail in the long term. However, the actual interest rate trajectory for federal funds will depend on economic trends in line with the incoming data.In October, the Fed will begin implementing a program for normalizing its balance sheet, which was set out in June 2017 in the accompanying document to the document of the main principles and plans of normalization. The current foundations of the monetary policy were adopted unanimously by 9 members of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve. which will ensure a smooth increase in the interest rate for federal funds and it is likely to remain for some time.However, the actual interest rate. In October, the Fed will launch a program to normalize its balance sheet, which was set out in June 2017 in the accompanying annex to the document which outlines the basic principles and plans of the normalization strategy. The current fundamentals of monetary policy were adopted unanimously by 9 members of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve.

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  #1742  
Old 22-09-2017, 09:28 PM
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Global macro overview for 22/09/2017: The USD was hit by the overnight turmoil that prompted investors to take profits off the table after the USD rally in the wake of the hawkish FOMC statements. Still, the fundamental background that is now being built around the US Dollar may be getting more attractive (hawkish Fed, macroeconomic data improvement, Trump administration pushing the tax reform), which could sustain the USD strength at the end of the year. Today in the calendar there is a few of the Fed members speeches: Williams (10:00 am GMT), George (01:30 pm GMT) and the Chaplain (05:30 am GMT). The latter seems to be the most important, as recently his comments pointed to a diminishing support for the December rally. After the Wednesday decision of the FOMC, and especially after the dotted graph, global investors can assume that Kaplan has maintained his voice for a hike, so his statement is less likely to be dovish again. Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. Contrary to popular skepticism, the Philly Fed index was released at 23.8 pts, beating the market with a relatively low median of 17.1 pts. The above result was not only made due to a significant boost to expectations, but also due to a higher cost sub-indexes and a solid inflow of new orders. Expectations of market participants clearly surprised weekly estimates from the US labor market, according to which the application for unemployment benefits submitted only 259k Americans. The relatively high median of forecasts (302k) condemned the implications of Hurricane Irma on the east coast of the United States. Nevertheless, even the good macro data did not help the USD as the index was clearly rejected after a false breakout above the golden trend line around the level of 92.67. The next technical support is seen at the level of 91.62.


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  #1743  
Old 22-09-2017, 09:28 PM
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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for September 22, 2017

EUR/AUD has been quite corrective and volatile in nature recently. At present, the pair is showing some bearish pressure after being rejected off the 1.5100 resistance level. Today, the eurozone provided several upbeat economic reports. Nevertheless, AUD seems quite dominating currently. Today, French Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with an increase to 56.0 from the previous figure of 55.8 which was expected to decrease to 55.6, French Flash Services PMI report showed an increase to 57.1 from the previous figure of 54.9 which was expected to decrease to 54.8, German Flash Manufacturing PMI report showed an increase to 60.6 from the previous figure of 59.3 which was expected to decrease to 59.0, German Flash Services PMI report showed an increase to 55.6 from the previous figure of 53.5 which was expected to have a slight increase to 53.8, EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI report showed an increase to 58.2 from the previous figure of 57.4 which was expected to decrease to 57.2, and EUR Flash Services PMI report also showed an increase to 55.6 which was expected to be unchanged at 54.7. On the other hand, Australia does not have any economic reports or event today but earlier all Australian reports were quite positive in nature which did contribute to today's gain. To sum up, despite a series of positive economic reports today EUR could not break above the resistance level of 1.51 which does signal that the market sentiment is changing towards AUD and will lead to further gains in the coming days. Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has rejected off the resistance level of 1.5100 today amid bearish pressure. The pair is expected to continue a further bearish move towards 1.4800 and later towards 1.4500 support level in the coming days. If the price remains below the 1.5100 resistance level with a daily close, the bearish pressure is likely to continue further.


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  #1744  
Old 22-09-2017, 09:30 PM
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Event of the Day: Theresa May's presentation of the"Brexit" concept

EUR / USD, GBP / USD Yesterday, September 21, the US released positive statistics but counter-dollar currencies were brought against the news. The weekly report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell sharply from *** thousand to 259 thousand, which is associated with the labor market expansion in eliminating the consequences of hurricanes "Harvey" and "Irma". For the same reason, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia for September increased from 18.9 to 23.8 against the expected decline to 17.3. The index of leading economic indicators in August rose from 0.4% against expectations of 0.3%. Either way, the pessimism on the Forex spread of the stock market, as explained by Reuters, is due to the anticipation of a December rate hike, showing a 0.30% decline on S&P 500. If this is the case, the yields on US government bonds would not fall across the entire range of securities and gold would not decrease by 0.77%. The British pound gained 88 points for the day, while the public sector borrowings came in at slightly less than expected 5.1 billion pounds against 6.5 billion, along with the expected speech of Theresa May with the concept of "Brexit". Specifically, the UK intends to pay the 20 billion pounds for the penalty of EU only against the required 60 billion, and afterward, in the event of the trade agreements preservation or direct access to the EU market. It is believed that the reorientation of investors to buy the dollar happened this Wednesday, and only accumulated extraordinary growth forbid the market to conduct a sudden reversal. Today, investors can push business activity in the euro area for September. In the manufacturing sector, PMI is expected to decrease from 57.4 to 57.2, while services sector shows unchanged forecast at 54.7. There will be federal elections on German parliament scheduled on Sunday. The party under Angela Merkel confidently leads the poll with 36%. The euro is predicted grow slightly on Monday. However, this is also a convenient time for the repositioning of large investors. The ECB President Mario Draghi will have his speech in Ireland at the Jubilee event, but the monetary policy will not be part of the talk. The technical range of the euro is moving quite wide between 1.1820-1.1990 levels. In the end, we wait for the price in the target range at 1.1745 / 75.


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The speech of Theresa May in Italy about the relationship with the EU is scheduled for 9:00 London time. On Monday, a new stage of negotiations will begin. The trading range for the pound is 1.3560-1.3700. We are expecting a decline at 1.3380-1.3400.


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USD / JPY On Thursday, the Bank of Japan held a meeting at which the regulator, as expected, kept its monetary policy, and there is no indication of possible changes in the future. The Japanese yen did not react to this neutral news. In general, the pair continued to grow on the overall strengthening of the dollar. But today in the Asian session, the yen loses 70 points after yesterday's decline in the US stock market. The Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 loses 0.33% today, Chinese China A50 by -0.30%, South Korean Kospi SEU is at -0.67%. Also this morning, DPRK Foreign Minister Ri Su-Yong announced the country's intention to conduct another hydrogen bomb test, but this time in the Pacific Ocean. Yesterday, the S&P Global Ratings downgraded China's long-term credit rating from AA- to A + and short-term credit rating from A1 + to A1 due to a strong build-up of public debt. On Monday, Japan will release the business activity indicator in the manufacturing sector, the forecast for it has not yet been published, but on Friday, September 29th, a very positive data are expected on a wide range of indicators. Industrial production is expected to increase from 4.7% YoY to 5.3% YoY, retail trade growth increase from 1.9% YoY to 2.5% YoY, while the base CPI grew from 0.5% YoY to 0.7% YoY, and the construction of new homes increased from 0.9% YoY against -2.3% YoY from a month earlier. Thus, the current decline can be regarded as temporary and we expect growth to 113.40 after the completion of the correction. In fact, the North Korean hydrogen bomb has not yet been tested, and we doubt that such a test outside North Korea will take place at all, for the war will be inevitable.


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  #1745  
Old 25-09-2017, 10:58 PM
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Global macro overview for 25/09/2017

After receiving the biggest vote over the weekend, New Zealand's Prime Minister, Bill English is claiming the right to form the next government, but with the National Party's share of the vote only 46%, and only 58 seats in the 120 seat parliament, it looks as if he will need to form a coalition.

The previous minority government worked with a supply agreement with the ACT (1 seat), but the arithmetic for this no longer works with the loss of one of the National Party's seats. So now, the most obvious choice for Bill English, would be a tie-up with the New Zealand First Party, which most known for its anti-immigration stance (they won 7.5% of the votes delivering 9 seats (down from 12)). Nevertheless, such a deal is by no means a certainty, and Jacinda Ardern, Labour's leader (Labour got 35.8% of the vote), is not giving up. A three-way coalition including the Greens cannot be ruled out. Labour's vote share delivered 45 seats, a rise of 13 seats taken broadly from all other parties, but in particular the Green Party, which lost 7 seats leaving it with 7 remaining.

In conclusion, political uncertainty is the only sure outcome over the coming weeks as coalition talks continue, which is likely to weigh on the NZD in the meantime as the markets do not like uncertain times.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/NZD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is moving inside of a parallel channel and the recent attempt to break out from it looks fake. The most importantly technical support is still the 38%Fibo at the level of 1.6130 as any violation of this level would immediately lead to the test of the level of 1.6000 and 50% Fibo at 1.5958.


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  #1746  
Old 25-09-2017, 11:02 PM
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Global macro overview for 25/09/2017

Chancellor Merkel will remain in office for the fourth term, but support from other political factions will be needed. The main parties have historically achieved the worst results since the 1940s, with the Bundestag, with the third, the far right. In the lower chamber for the first time since the 1950s, there will be as many as six groups. After the first series of comments, expect the so-called: Jamaica-Coalition, that will include CDU / CSU, FDP and Green Party agreement. It is worth remembering that after the last coalition of the CDU / CSU the liberals threatened to disappear from the political scene of Germany, which should make the FDP not an easy coalition. Such a composition of the coalition and it's approximately 52% the number of votes reduces the chances for an ambitious reform agenda, especially as regards the functioning of the European Union (contradictory positions of the Greens and FDP).

In conclusion: political uncertainty is growing in Germany. In the nearest future, European policy will adversely affect the strength of the Euro and the valuation of European assets. The illusion created after the French presidential (and Dutch parliamentary) elections has ended, suggesting that the support for extremist groups and movements has begun to sharply decrease.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the clear rejection of 78%Fibo at the level of 134.31, the price has started to decrease towards the next important technical support at the level of 132.01. This view is being supported by overbought market conditions and downward pointing momentum indicator.


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  #1747  
Old 25-09-2017, 11:05 PM
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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for September 25, 2017

EUR/USD has been quite volatile lately which recently showed bearish impulsiveness after the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds rate report was published. EUR/USD has struggled to break above the 1.2050 resistance level which leads to further bearish pressure which is expected to continue further in the coming days.

As of the German Election yesterday Merkel has won a majority of the votes as expected yet the result to be published and the effect is expected to remain for weeks. Today German Ifo Business Climate report was published with a decrease to 115.2 from the previous figure of 115.9 which was expected to have a slight increase to 116.0. On the USD side, today FOMC Member Dudley and FOMC Member Evans are going to speak about the interest rate decision and upcoming monetary policies which are expected to have a moderate impact on the market today. To sum up, EUR has shown weakness already after the German Election this week which is expected to continue further whereas USD has been quite hawkish in nature recently and have high impact economic reports like Quarterly GDP to be published this week. Until EUR comes up with positive economic reports to shake out the USD gains, USD is expected to gain more in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing below 1.1900 resistance level after the pair started the week with a bearish GAP today. Though the GAP has been filled already and the price rejected the bull off the GAP area which is expected to lead the price further down towards 1.1710 support level in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.1900 with a daily close the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.


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  #1748  
Old 25-09-2017, 11:09 PM
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EURUSD will fall due to elections in Germany

EURUSD will fall due to elections in Germany. Last minute burning forecast 25.09.2017 The main event on Monday morning: the results of the elections in Germany - the elections strongly weakened Merkel, this will put pressure on the euro. Merkel's Party (CDU) won first place (33%), but this is the worst result in nearly 70 years of elections, a 9% loss compared to the previous elections. The second concern - AfD got the third place with 12% ("Alternative for Germany") - a radical right-wing semi-fascists, many call them heirs of the Hitler party of the NSDAP. But the main concern for Merkel is the Socialists (SPD), the second strongest party (20% of the vote) - which pulled out of Merkel's coalition and then went into opposition. Thus, the only option for Merkel is to form a majority in the parliament - and get the post of Chancellor - head of government - in order to create a coalition with two small parties - the Free Democrats and the Greens - 11% and 9% of the vote. This makes Merkel and her government quite vulnerable and objectively weak. The weakening of Germany's domestic authorities is inevitably weakening the EU as a whole. This weakens the EURUSD pair. We sell the euro from 1.1940 - and are prepared to sell for a breakthrough down from 1.1860. The level of a cancellation in selling: 1.2005 - with the breakthrough of 1.2005 and afterwards we buy.


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  #1749  
Old 25-09-2017, 11:25 PM
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Global macro overview for 25/09/2017: After receiving the biggest vote over the weekend, New Zealand's Prime Minister, Bill English is claiming the right to form the next government, but with the National Party's share of the vote only 46%, and only 58 seats in the 120 seat parliament, it looks as if he will need to form a coalition. The previous minority government worked with a supply agreement with the ACT (1 seat), but the arithmetic for this no longer works with the loss of one of the National Party's seats. So now, the most obvious choice for Bill English, would be a tie-up with the New Zealand First Party, which most known for its anti-immigration stance (they won 7.5% of the votes delivering 9 seats (down from 12)). Nevertheless, such a deal is by no means a certainty, and Jacinda Ardern, Labour's leader (Labour got 35.8% of the vote), is not giving up. A three-way coalition including the Greens cannot be ruled out. Labour's vote share delivered 45 seats, a rise of 13 seats taken broadly from all other parties, but in particular the Green Party, which lost 7 seats leaving it with 7 remaining. In conclusion, political uncertainty is the only sure outcome over the coming weeks as coalition talks continue, which is likely to weigh on the NZD in the meantime as the markets do not like uncertain times. Let's now take a look at the EUR/NZD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is moving inside of a parallel channel and the recent attempt to break out from it looks fake. The most importantly technical support is still the 38%Fibo at the level of 1.6130 as any violation of this level would immediately lead to the test of the level of 1.6000 and 50% Fibo at 1.5958.

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  #1750  
Old 25-09-2017, 11:31 PM
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Global macro overview for 25/09/2017: Chancellor Merkel will remain in office for the fourth term, but support from other political factions will be needed. The main parties have historically achieved the worst results since the 1940s, with the Bundestag, with the third, the far right. In the lower chamber for the first time since the 1950s, there will be as many as six groups. After the first series of comments, expect the so-called: Jamaica-Coalition, that will include CDU / CSU, FDP and Green Party agreement. It is worth remembering that after the last coalition of the CDU / CSU the liberals threatened to disappear from the political scene of Germany, which should make the FDP not an easy coalition. Such a composition of the coalition and it's approximately 52% the number of votes reduces the chances for an ambitious reform agenda, especially as regards the functioning of the European Union (contradictory positions of the Greens and FDP). In conclusion: political uncertainty is growing in Germany. In the nearest future, European policy will adversely affect the strength of the Euro and the valuation of European assets. The illusion created after the French presidential (and Dutch parliamentary) elections has ended, suggesting that the support for extremist groups and movements has begun to sharply decrease. Let's now take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the clear rejection of 78%Fibo at the level of 134.31, the price has started to decrease towards the next important technical support at the level of 132.01. This view is being supported by overbought market conditions and downward pointing momentum indicator.


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