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  #621  
Old 16-04-2018, 08:37 PM
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Global macro overview for 16/04/2018

The Syrian affair had an unpleasant development over the weekend, but the market reaction is surprisingly almost invisible. A drop of USD/JPY by 30 pips, or fluctuations in the price of Gold within 0.5% are not worth describing. Suggestions that military action will not turn into a longer campaign (President Trump said that "the mission was done") help calm the reaction. Nevertheless, the continuation of the conflict is not excluded: Trump warned that he would respond to the next attack with the use of chemical weapons; President Putin warns against the "chaos" that may arise from subsequent attacks on Syria; The US is ready to impose sanctions on other Russian companies that may be suspected of ties to the Syrian regime. In the intervals between macro data publications, information services (and social networks) remain to be monitored in the event of unexpected messages.

t is possible that Monday will be used by investors to confirm whether you can really ignore weekend events, or whether there is a reason to reduce risky positions. The technical picture on pairs with AUD, NZD and JPY indicates ugly corrections and unsuccessful breaking out of significant technical levels. At least it may cool the enthusiasm for continuing the trends from last week. However, if the next day remains calm, the return of risk-on is the path along the line of the least resistance.

The main point of the calendar on Monday is retail sales from the USA. Expectations are on the positive side (0.4% m/m) after a series of three readings at -0.1%. Despite this, global investors must not forget that the USD has a problem to clearly gain after good publications, but the disappointments are carefully reflected by the market.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. There is no dramatic improvement in the US Dollar price so far, neither the markets are willing to drop lower. The recent breakout below the intraday support at the level of 89.63 is still within the daily range as the key technical support remains at the level of 89.35. On the other hand, the key technical resistance is seen at the level of 89.96. Neutral bias is being continued untli one of this levels is violated.



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  #622  
Old 18-04-2018, 06:23 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Analysis of Gold for April 18, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,345.25. According to the M30 time – frame, I found that price is respecting supply trendline, which is a sign that sellers are active. I also found a rounding top pattern, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities as long that price remains below the supply trendline. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,337.50 and at the price fo $1,333.20.

Resistance levels: R1: $1,351.90 R2: $1,356.50 R3: $1,363.62

Support levels: S1: $1,340.16 S2: $1,333.05 S3: $1,328.45
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  #623  
Old 18-04-2018, 08:05 PM
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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 18, 2018

Although the Dollar index started weak yesterday, price held the important short-term upward sloping trend line support and made a strong bounce. Trend remains bearish as price remains below the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud. There is no indication by the price action that a bigger reversal has started.


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Black line - short-term trend line support

Price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Bulls will need to break above 90-90.30 resistance area. If this happens, then we can talk for a bigger bounce towards 91.70 and higher. Yesterday's lows are also very important price level. Bears need to break them soon and the decline towards 88 will accelerate. Bears are still in control of the trend and they do not want price to break above 90. Bulls need to defend 89.20 and show more signs of strength.
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  #624  
Old 18-04-2018, 08:06 PM
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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 18, 2018

Gold price continues to trade sideways below the short-term resistance of $1,350. Support at $1,338-40 is very important for the short term. I'm expecting another leg down towards $1,300 as the most probable scenario. Only a break above $1,365 will cancel this view and automatically make me bullish looking for a move towards $1,400-$1,430.


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Red line -long-term resistance

Gold price is trading inside the Kumo (cloud). Price is now at support. Any move below $1,340 will be a sign of weakness. A daily close below $1,338 will be a sign of further weakness to come and probably $1,300. Bulls should first break above $1,350 resistance which is the recent highs. After that, they will need to make new 2018 highs and cancel the false break out of last week.
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  #625  
Old 19-04-2018, 04:37 PM
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Gold gathers forces for an attack

Strengthening of global appetite for risk and the stabilization of the US dollar cooled the hotheads of bulls for gold. The precious metal could not once again break above $1365 per ounce, and its fans preferred to retreat. Are they preparing a new attack or are afraid that the increase in the probability of four federal fund rate increases in 2018 to more than 40% is a valid argument for a correction?

If one of the main "doves", FOMC president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, expresses confidence that inflation will be secured near 2% within a year, and the Fed should gradually normalize monetary policy, it is clear what the others think. Markets are 88% certain that the Central Bank will tighten monetary policy three times this year, but this factor has already taken into account the quotations of the USD index and does not render it significant support. Another matter is the increase in the probability of four acts of monetary tightening to 42%. This trump card continues to play on the side of the "greenback especially against safe haven assets in the face of the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and gold.

Dynamics of gold and the US dollar


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The precious metal does not feel much support from trade wars, protectionism in general, and geopolitics. China is ready to make concessions, as it understands that the US has more significant weapons in the trade conflict. China presented its plan to liberalize the access of foreigners to the local market. Previously, non-residents could not own more than 50% of the shares of companies that produce cars. By 2022 this prohibition will become history. As a result, the risks of trade war are declining, which leads to an increase in world stock indices. For such a safe haven asset, like gold, it is not the best news. Moreover, the IMF is optimistic about the prospects of the global economy and predicts its growth at the level of 3.9% in 2018, which is the best result since 2011.

Donald Trump's statement about the allegedly competitive devaluation of the ruble and the yuan was seen by financial markets as a verbal intervention, but US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin tried to convince investors that the president did not want to weaken the dollar in this way. Coupled with strong industrial production statistics for February-March, neutral rhetoric of the "dove" Charles Evans, and the conviction of five minutes from the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, that the yield curve will not go to the red zone (read, the US economy will not come to a recession), Munchin's speech played into the hands of "bulls" in the dollar, forcing gold buyers to think three times before continuing the attack.

At the same time, it is difficult to call a precious metal position vulnerable. According to Commerzbank, ETF stocks in April rose by 36 tons, which is almost twice as much as in March. Investors against the background of growing risks of increasing the volatility of financial markets are emerging from the assets of developing countries and are increasingly looking at gold.

A breakthrough of the resistance at $1357-1362 per ounce will open the way for bulls to target 127.2% and 161.8% for AB = CD patterns.

Gold, daily chart


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  #626  
Old 19-04-2018, 04:39 PM
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Weekly review of #USDX (US dollar index) of April 18 on simplified wave analysis

A direction of short-term trends in the US dollar index depends entirely on the process of forming the basic wave model "descending expanded flat". In the wave, the internal structure is closely monitored. The final section of the wave started since the beginning of 2017 and has a high chance to continue its formation this year.

Since February, the dollar's rate has slipped into a drift. According to the chart, extremes continued to form the "flat triangle" figure. Next week, there is a high probability of completing the corrective phase. The short-term recovery of the course is not excluded but not beyond the borders of resistance. Eventually, it is worth waiting for the reversal and the outset of a new round of the US currency decline.

Boundaries of resistance zones: - 90.60 / 90.80

Boundaries of support zones: - 88.60 / 88.40



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  #627  
Old 20-04-2018, 08:49 PM
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Analysis of Gold for April 20, 2018


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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,339.00. According to the M30 time – frame, I found a breakout of upward channel, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunties. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,333.40 and at the price of $1,324.50 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).

Resistance levels: R1: $1,353.15 R2: $1,360.85 R3: $1,366.95

Support levels: S1: $1,339.35 S2: $1,333.26 S3: $1,325.57

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
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  #628  
Old 23-04-2018, 05:27 PM
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Analysis of Gold for April 23, 2018


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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,329.00. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a breakout of the upward channel, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a very consistent supply, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,342.20, $1,319.80 and at the price of $1,305.20.


Resistance levels: R1: $1,342.90 R2: $1,350.27 R3: $1,354.25

Support levels: S1: $1,331.58 S2: $1,327.61 S3: $1,320.25

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
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  #629  
Old 23-04-2018, 06:34 PM
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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 23, 2018

The Dollar index is challenging important resistance. Price has broken above the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud and the first step for a bigger bounce towards 91.70 has been made. Bulls will now need to break above the April high and at the same time break above the triangle pattern.


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Black lines - triangle pattern

The Dollar index has given a bullish signal by breaking above the Ichimoku cloud. Price is now challenging the resistance of the upper triangle boundary. A break above the triangle will open the way for our first bullish target of 91.70. Support is at 89.50 by the lower cloud boundary and by the lower triangle boundary. I'm bullish Dollar as long as the index is above that level.
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  #630  
Old 23-04-2018, 06:40 PM
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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 23, 2018

Gold price is challenging important Daily support at $1,333-28. Short-term trend is bearish as price has broken below the 4hour cloud. Gold price has seen multiple rejection at $1,355-65 area and every attempt to break the long-term resistance has been met with selling pressures and price reversals. Bulls continue to hope for a bullish break out to $1,400 as long as we trade above $1,300.


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Mgenta line- long-term resistance

Gold price has Daily cloud support at $1,333-28. Break below it and we will test the $1,300 lows from March. The multiple rejections and failed attempts to break above the long-term resistance tell me that we should expect more selling pressures to come for Gold. I remain bearish as long as we are below $1,365. Most bullish traders have their stops placed at $1,300. So a break below that level is expected to give a big push lower to Gold price even towards $1,260.
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