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  #11  
Old 20-12-2013, 09:15 PM
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Dec. 20: Asian session

Asian stocks fell, led by Chinese shares amid concern funding costs for the nation’s lenders will remain high even after the central bank injected cash into the financial system. Japanese Nikkei 225 edged down as investors booked profits before the long weekend in Japan.

USD/JPY rose to 104.45. Yen declined after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady and voted unanimously to maintain its pledge of increasing base money, or cash and deposits at the central bank, at an annual pace of 60 trillion yen ($576 billion) to 70 trillion yen. But the BOJ slightly tweaked its view on the outlook to signal that it was mindful of the potential pain on the economy from an increase in the national sales tax in April next year. Investors are now waiting for Governor Kuroda’s comments on how the Fed’s tapering could affect the BOJ's decision on if and when it might next expand stimulus.

AUD/USD tested $0.8889, but then returned to $0.8870. NZD/USD tested $0.8712, but then returned by 20 pips lower.

EUR/USD slid to $1.3631. GBP/USD is trading a bit on the downside, in the $1.6360 area.
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  #12  
Old 20-12-2013, 09:17 PM
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Key currency options (Dec. 20)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3600 (large), $1.3645, $1.3650, $1.3770, $1.3775;

GBP/USD: $1.6200, $1.6300, $1.6350;

USD/JPY: 103.00, 103.50, 104.00 (large), 104.25, 104.50, 105.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.8875, 0.9020;

AUD/USD: 0.8850 (large), 0.8875 (large), 0.8900 (large), 0.9000, 0.9020, 0.9075, 0.9100;

NZD/USD: 0.8195;

USD/CAD: 1.0700, 1.0775, 1.0800 (large);

EUR/JPY: 142.75;

EUR/GBP: 0.8405;

EURCHF: 1.2220 1.2275.
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  #13  
Old 20-12-2013, 09:21 PM
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EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 20)

Daily. Last week the pair once again failed to overcome the $1.3800 figure, which led to a corrective decline to the Tenkan-Kijun channel. Pay attention to Chinkou Span, which at that point was in the overbought area. This was an additional incentive for the short-term trend reversal. Now the prices may test support formed by Kijun-sen (KS) just above $1.3600. After that the bulls may once again take the lead as the indicator’s readings are all in all rather positive.


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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. At H4 the pair fell inside the Cloud. The short-term trend became bearish: Tenkan and Kijun are now pointing down (C). However, the Cloud is still bullish. Therefore, after testing the lower boundary ($1.3600), euro can start recovering.


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Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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  #14  
Old 20-12-2013, 09:22 PM
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GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 20)

Daily. The pair is apparently finishing consolidation. On the daily chart the prices spend a brief time inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel, and by the the end of the week sterling managed to get to positive territory. The prices haven’t even touched Kijun-sen (KS), which shows the weakness of the bears. Note that the indicator is still positive: golden cross (C) is still in place and the Cloud expands upwards.



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Chart. Daily GBP/USD

H4. The pair was trading within the Ichimoku Cloud and the market was in the sideways state. Nevertheless, in the second half of the week the pair rebounded from the lower border of the Cloud. If the prices fix above the horizontal Kijun-sen at $1.6350, this can lead to the further strengthening of sterling. Otherwise, the market will have to find support at the $1.6300 handle.



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Chart. H4 GBP/USD
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  #15  
Old 20-12-2013, 09:24 PM
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USD/CHF: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 20)

Daily. Last week currency pair found support in the 0.8850 area. A"double bottom" was formed on the daily chart and the bulls used it to turn the greenback up. Note the pair was oversold and this contributed to the bullish sentiment. Despite the bearish character of the indicator, the bulls tested resistance of Kijun-sen (KS). A short-term recoil down from here towards the Tenkan-sen in the 0.8915 region looks possible.



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Chart. Daily USD/CHF

H4. At H4 the pair broke into the Cloud after some consolidation under the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud. This breakthrough was rapid and by the end of the week the currency pair reached 0.9000. This is actually bad for the bulls. A sharp increase has led to an overbought market. Also, just above the 0.9000 figure there is a strong resistance level, formed by the upper boundary of the cloud. Consequently, in the near future we expect the pair to turn down from these levels.



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Chart. H4 USD/CHF
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  #16  
Old 20-12-2013, 09:26 PM
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USD/JPY: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 20)

Daily. USD/JPY continues setting new yearly highs. Although the greenback is strongly overbought, the currency pair is trading above 104.00, in the 104.50 area. All the indicator lines on the daily timeframe are directed upwards, which indicates strong activity of the buyers. The bullish rally may pause around the weekly levels at 105.20 and 106.00.



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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

H4. The pair was supported by the Ichimoku Cloud top, and after a brief consolidation above 102.70 US dollar resumed recovery. In general, technical picture is completely in favor of the bulls. Tenkan and Kijun formed a new Golden Cross above the Cloud. The Cloud continues to rise, which also has a positive impact on the long-term market sentiment. Only the fact that the pair is overbought can hinder further growth.


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Chart. H4 USD/JPY

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  #17  
Old 20-12-2013, 09:31 PM
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Technicals (20.12)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD keeps drifting down. Euro has slid to support at $1.3525. Euro may slide to consolidation area of $1.3620/3520. Data released in Germany was mixed (see the
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).

55-period MA is starting to slope down.
The prices dropped below the Ichimoku Cloud ($1.3666) – a bearish sign. Tenkan-sen (red line) went almost vertically down.
MACD extended down in the negative territory. RSI, however, is currently signaling oversold (below the 30 level).
Support: $1.3625, $1.3613, $1.3600 and $1.3575 (200-period MA)

Resistance: $1.3666, $1.3705, $1.3740/50, $1.3790


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Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events:

EUR - All Day - EU Economic Summit

EUR - 10:00 GMT - Italian retail sales

USD - 13:30 GMT - Final GDP

USD - Tentative - Fed Chairman Nomination Vote
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  #18  
Old 20-12-2013, 09:50 PM
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Technicals (20.12)

GBP/USD


Cable remains in a narrow $1.6335 /1.63875 range for a second day in a row. There are now clear signals on the pair for now. However, we still remain bullish for the pair with a medium-term target of $1.6600 as long as it holds above $1.6320.

· The cable consolidates above the bearish channel;

H4 MACD histogram remains in a positive territory, but stopped its rise;

Cable is supported by the 100- and 55- period MAs;
Ichimoku: Kidjun-sen is about to cross Tenkan-sen to the downside (that could become a bearish signal).
Support: $1.6340, $1.6320, $1.6300, $1.6230 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance: $1.6435, $1.6465, $1.6500


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Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events:

GBP - 9:30 GMT - Final Q3 GDP, Current Account, Public Sector Net Borrowing

USD - 13:30 GMT - Final GDP q/q

USD - Tentative - Fed Chairman Nomination Vote
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  #19  
Old 23-12-2013, 09:05 PM
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Dec. 23: Asian session


Asian stocks went cautiously higher on Monday encouraged by record highs on Wall Street due to the upbeat data on American economic growth and the resilience of stocks to the Fed’s decision to start QE tapering. However, growth in shares wasn’t strong as China’s benchmark short-term money rates swung to 9.8% fueling the fears of a credit squeeze.

USD/JPY is little changed in the 104.00 area, below Friday’s peak at 104.63. Trading is quiet as Japanese banks are closed today in observance of the Emperor’s Birthday. Australian and New Zealand dollars are trading a little higher on Monday. AUD/USD extends the upside, strengthening to $0.8950. Last week the pair has formed a “hammer” candle. NZD/USD keeps consolidating in the $0.8190/8220 range. Gold price is consolidating around $1200.0 – slightly above the June 3-year low of $1180.0.

EUR/USD edged up to $1.3695 and GBP/USD – up to $1.6360.
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  #20  
Old 23-12-2013, 09:08 PM
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Key currency options (Dec. 23)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3600, $1.3650, $1.3660, $1.3700, $1.3750;

USD/JPY: 103.00, 104.00, 105.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.8900;

AUD/USD: 0.8900 (large) 0.9100 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0650 1.0675.
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