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  #4271  
Old 18-02-2017, 12:04 AM
riki143 riki143 is offline
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USD/CHF: bears-bulls 5-0
2/17/2017

On the USD/CHF daily chart, there is an implementation of the 5-0 pattern. After the correction at 50% level of the CD wave, the pair returned to the "bearish" trend. To restore it, sellers need to test the support at 0.985.


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On the USD/CHF daily chart, due to the "Splash and reversal with acceleration" pattern, there was a change of the trend. The angle of slope has increased 1.5 times, and the breakout of the trendline at the intermediate stage and at the stage of splash freed bears' hands.


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Recommendation: SELL 1,002 SL 1,0075 TP 0,9916.

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  #4272  
Old 18-02-2017, 12:08 AM
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Morning brief for February 17
2/17/2017

Market participants had a peeve on the US dollar overnight after it weakened in the currency space despite the upbeat economic release. The greenback was softer mainly because of the US Treasury yields came off their recent highs. USD/JPY dropped to 113.00 after the pair almost approached the 115.00 threshold. Earlier this morning the USD managed to gather its momentum having edged to 113.40 level. If USD/JPY manages to reclaim its positions at around 114.60, it will be a signal of a considerable weakness of the yen.

Some spicy expressions from Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer

He refused to unlock the Fed’s secrets about the number of hikes this year but said that the observable activity in the labor market and heightened inflation rates are consistent with the Fed’s projections. Stanley Fischer put an emphasis on the gradual rate increase, keeping hopes of a near-term hike alive, especially if next month’s payrolls data is strong.

The euro hiked to 1.0680 overnight against USD but failed to consolidate its positions there having slipped some points in the early hour of the Asian session. This session is poised to be subdued since today’s economic calendar is very light.

GBP/USD was a winner earlier this morning having risen circa 1.2510. A breakout of the resistance at 1.2520 (near the 100MA on the H4 timeframe) may push the quotes higher towards the resistance at 1.2710. The Sterling focus will be the release of the January retail sales report (11:30 MT time). After a disappointing December data, the market braced up for OK figures for January. If the release is in line with market’s expectation, the pound will gain a modest support.

Aussie rallied to fresh highs at 0.7730 overnight on the upbeat Australian labor market report but failed to stay in that area for a long time closing the day in red around 0.7685. In the Asian session, AUS/USD managed to pare its earlier losses having advanced to 0.7710 level. A further upsurge is a bit problematic. We would be waiting for a correction as the pair approaches 0.7770 level (September 2016 high).

USD/CAD went lower on the session. The pair might continue moving sideways in the narrow range of 1.3050 – 1.3080 levels trying to define its further direction. Today’s focus will be on the Canadian foreign securities purchases ( coming at 15:30 MT time). Brent oil futures built some gains having risen to $55.70 in the past sessions on the positive sentiments over reports that OPEC members may consider extending the timing of their output-reduction agreement. Keep an eye on the weekly US Baker-Hughes oil rig count numbers coming tonight. In the absence of the significant releases, it may become a real market trigger for oil prices and for USD/CAD currency pair.

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  #4273  
Old 18-02-2017, 12:12 AM
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EUR/USD: bulls tested Cloud’s resistance
2/17/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0640; resistance – 1.0690, 1.0710.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0640; SL — 1.0620; TP1 — 1.0690; TP2 – 1.0710.

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the lines are horizontal; the prices are near the Cloud’s resistance.


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  #4274  
Old 18-02-2017, 12:19 AM
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GBP/USD: pound returned to positive area
2/17/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2490; resistance – 1.2560.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2490; SL — 1.2470; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2590.

Reason: narrow bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrow channel Tenkan-Kijun; the prices are on the support of the Cloud.


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  #4275  
Old 18-02-2017, 12:25 AM
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EUR/USD: bulls going to test the next resistance
2/17/2017

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12529/17-2-2017-EUR-H4.png[/IG]

There’s a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the current upward price movement. Bulls faced a resistance at 1.0684, but the market is likely going to continue moving up, so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.0713 as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0632.


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The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0684. At the same time, bulls are likely going to push the pair even higher during the day. If a pullback from a resistance at 1.0698 – 1.0707 happens, bears will probably try to test the nearest support at 1.0669 – 1.0658.

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  #4276  
Old 18-02-2017, 12:28 AM
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GBP/USD: price going to go around in a circle
2/17/2017


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Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2509, so the price is consolidating. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581. However, if we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an option to have a downward price movement towards a support at 1.2465 – 1.2432.


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All Moving Average have been broken. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.2538 – 1.2548 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels arrives afterwards, bears will have a green light to reach a support at 1.2509 – 1.2486.

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  #4277  
Old 18-02-2017, 12:33 AM
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EUR/GBP: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

The EUR/GBP currency pair rose in the course of the past week feeding on the BoE’s pledge not to raise the interest rate for an extended period of time. The euro got an additional boost from the miss on the UK monthly retail sales data. The figures added to evidence that the long-awaited squeeze in household spending is materializing as the purchasing power of the UK citizens keeps eroding by surging prices. That may hurt an economy that relies heavily on consumers for growth.

We expect the euro to extend its gains next week despite Draghi being dovish in the January ECB meeting, undying talks on the QE tapering and political risks in some Eurozone countries ahead. Manufacturing data from the key Eurozone countries are expected on Tuesday. The previous figures were supportive for EUR and this time the same may happen. The UK economic calendar is light with the only focus on the second estimate of GDP coming on Wednesday at 4:30 am MT time.

The near-term technical outlook for the pair is bullish. The resistance at 0.8640, 0.8710 and 0.8860 (23.6% Fibo retracement level from the June 24, 2016 low) represent immediate hurdles above which the cross will unlikely manage to extend its gains. In the case of the reversal at aforementioned levels, the pair might be ready to test the supports located at 0.8540 (50-day MA), 0.8460 (200-day MA) and 0.8420 (50% Fibo retracement level).


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  #4278  
Old 18-02-2017, 12:38 AM
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US dollar: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

US dollar index rose to 101.75 during the past week before returning back to 100.55 area.

Economic data released in the US were mixed. January CPI, PPI, retail sales, building permits and Philly Fed manufacturing index exceeded forecast, although industrial production disappointed.

The Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told the Congress that the regulator could cause a recession if it waited too long to raise interest rates. This statement surprised the market given the sluggish wage growth and the uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s presidency. The market players still don’t believe that the Fed will raise rates 3 times this year and this is diminishing USD strength. The resignation of the US National Security Adviser Michael Flynn did provoke investors’ concerns. However, Trump did promise to unveil a "phenomenal" tax plan in the coming weeks. Hopes of fiscal stimulus should provide the US dollar with some support.

US markets will be closed on Monday because of the bank holiday. On Tuesday, we’ll hear further comments from the Fed: Kashkari and Harker, who are both voting FOMC members this year, will speak. On Wednesday, American central bank will release the minutes of its recent meeting as well as the existing home sales data. Last time the Fed’s statement was more dovish than the market has expected. It contrasts with the recent more hawkish tone of Yellen, so traders will be paying much attention to the minutes to find out the opinions of other Fed members. On Thursday, there will be unemployment claims and the US crude oil inventories and on Friday America will publish new home sales and revised UoM consumer sentiment figures.

DXY failed to close above the 50-day MA (101.36) and it formed a shooting star candle next to this line. The weekly close below this line will make the greenback vulnerable for a decline to 100.10 (100-day MA) and 99.50/99.26. Further resistance is at 102.00.


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  #4279  
Old 18-02-2017, 12:43 AM
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EUR/USD: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

EUR/USD dipped as low as to 1.0520.

Economic data released in the euro area were mostly negative. GBP growth slowed down from 0.5% in Q3 to 0.4% in Q4. The region’s industrial production contracted more than expected in December, and ZEW economic sentiment missed the forecast. The minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest monetary policy meeting showed that the regulator isn’t planning to dial back on monetary stimulus.

In addition, market players keep following developments in France. The positions of the conservative candidate Francois Fillon keep worsening as the investigation into the fake work scandal continues. Although Marine Le Pen, who supports Frexit, is not likely to win the overall elections, political factors will still limit the euro’s upside.

Moreover, the pair is certainly very sensitive to the things happening in America. USD dollar events represent the pair’s primary drivers. As for the European economic calendar, there will be a release of flash manufacturing & services PMIs on Tuesday. German Ifo business climate, as well the region’s final CPI are due on Wednesday. The release of German consumer climate is scheduled on Thursday.

The pair formed a hammer and managed to close above the 50-day MA above 1.0600. The euro still has met resistance at 1.0680 (weekly pivot, Jan. 12 high). Another significant resistance is located around 1.0715 (Jan. 17 high) and 1.0730 (100-day MA) ahead of 1.0775. All in all, support around 1.0500 (late November lows) is very strong. It’s reasonable to expect longer consolidating above this area.


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  #4280  
Old 18-02-2017, 12:47 AM
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GBP/USD: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

In line with our expectations GBP/USD spent the week consolidating between 1.2380 and 1.2550.

The topic of Brexit is temporarily on the sidelines, ready to resurface later this month. Economic data released in the UK mostly disappointed. CPI growth was a bit lower than expected, while the growth pace of average earnings declined. British retail sales also contracted in January.

The most important releases of the upcoming days include public sector net borrowing on Tuesday and second estimate GDP and prelim business investment on Wednesday.

The bears made another assault on the 100- and 50-day MAs just above 1.2400, but failed to keep the pair below these lines. On H4 the 200-period MA once again acted as good support (currently at 1.2400). The moving averages here are horizontal. Note though that the pair’s range is getting narrower, that means that the breakout of the current ranges is coming closer. Looking at the series of lower highs we assume that the pound is more vulnerable to the downside than to the upside. Below 1.2400 we’ll target 1.2345 and 1.2260.


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