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  #2921  
Old 19-04-2018, 09:43 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is online now
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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for April 19, 2018

EUR/GBP is currently residing inside the corrective resistance zone between 0.87 to 0.8750 area whereas the bearish trend is quite intact as well. EUR has been the dominant currency in the pair for last few days inside the impulsive bearish trend in progress as GBP was struggling for gains amid mixed economic reports recently. Today, the eureozone's Current Account report was published with a better-than-expected figure of 35.1B decreasing from the previous figure of 39.0B which was expected to decrease to 32.3B. On the other hand, today the UK Retail Sales report was published with a decrease to -1.2% from the previous value of 0.8% which was expected to be at -0.5%. Today, MPC official Cunliffe is due to speak later today. His speech is expected to be quite neutral about the UK key interest rate and monetary policy. As for the current scenario, the market is quite volatile amid alternating impulsive bullish and bearish pressure. This provides no definite trend pressure on either side. GBP has been affected by worse economic reports, thus pushing the price lower. This indicates strength of EUR which is expected to continue further in the coming days. To sum up, EUR is expected to have an upper hand over GBP, so the pair is set to continue its bearish trend further.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently rejecting off the dynamic level of 20 EMA in the non-volatile bearish trend which is expected to push the price much lower towards 0.84 support area in the coming days. The retracement towards the dynamic level is an indication of more bears entering the market to input more impulsive bearish pressure in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.8750 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.



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  #2922  
Old 19-04-2018, 09:43 PM
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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for April 19, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite corrective and volatile after breaking above the 0.7750 price area with a daily close recently. Today was an important day for AUD as Employment reports was published which turned out to be a let-down for the currency to sustain its bullish pressure. Today, AUD Employment Change report was published with an increase to 4.9k from previous figure of -6.3k which failed to meet the expectation of 20.3k and Unemployment Rate was published unchanged, as expected, at 5.5%. Moreover, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence report was published unchanged at 7. AUD, having certain economic reports, resulted to more struggle to continue its impulsive bullish pressure. On the other hand, the market sentiment has been quite against USD as of the recent rate hikes and worse economic reports results. This week, USD managed to provide slight better than expected economic reports like Building Permits with an increase to 1.35M from the previous figure of 1.32M and Housing Starts with an increase to 1.32M from the previous figure of 1.30M. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to gain momentum over AUD which is expected to struggle to sustain the bullish pressure due to worse Employment reports, published today. Though the pair is still expected to quite volatile and corrective in nature while the bears pushing the price lower.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has formed a Bearish Regular Divergence along the way which has recently showed bearish impulsive pressure and expected to push the price lower towards the 0.7700-50 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.78 with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair.


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  #2923  
Old 20-04-2018, 09:00 PM
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The euro has problems with further growth

Good data on the American economy, albeit not so important, was released on Thursday afternoon, which supported the US dollar, as did the Fed representatives who talked about the need to further raise interest rates.

According to the report of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, production activity in April continued to grow. Thus, the leading index of business activity in April rose to 23.2 points against 22.3 points in March. Economists had expected the index to be 20.1 points.

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators in March also showed growth. According to the report, the index rose by 0.3%, to 109 points, which fully coincided with the forecasts of economists.

As I noted above, the speech of the representatives of the Federal Reserve also provided support to the US dollar. Loretta Mester stated the need for further rate hikes to keep the economy recovering. In her opinion, raising rates will keep the economy from overheating. Mester also expects that the unemployment rate will fall below 4% this and next years, and the economy will grow by more than 2.5% in 2018. As for the level of inflation, then, according to the representative of the Fed, it will return to 2% in the next few years.

Let me remind you that yesterday there were data that indicated a decrease in the positive balance of the current account of the euro area's balance of payments. In this regard, the new German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz criticized the trend of a return to protectionism and nationalism from the US. Yesterday, he made a visit to Washington and spoke in favor of a compromise with the United States on the introduction of trade duties and new tariffs on imports, proposed by President Donald Trump.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the situation is on the sellers side. The inability of buyers of risky assets to get beyond the resistance of 1.2395 led to the selling of the euro with a return to the lower boundary of the side channel. Now the main goal for short positions in the trading instrument will be the area of 1.2300, and its breakthrough will lead to a break in the upward trend in the euro, which was formed earlier this month and update levels 1.2260 and 1.2220.

The Japanese yen declined sharply against the US dollar after data showed that Japan's core inflation in March this year showed restrained growth. According to the report of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the base consumer price index rose by 0.9% in March this year compared to the same period of the previous year. The data fully coincided with the forecasts of economists.


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  #2924  
Old 20-04-2018, 09:05 PM
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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for April 20, 2018

AUD/JPY recently gained bearish momentum in the middle of the price range of 82.00 to 84.50 from where the price is currently expected to have bearish pressure in the nearest days. Recently, AUD Employment Change report was published with an increase to 4.9k from the previous negative figure of -6.3k but it failed to meet the expectation of 20.3k and Unemployment Rate was also published unchanged at 5.5%. As AUD missed the expectation of a significant increase in Employment Change, this had a great impact on the gains of AUD against JPY, leading to impulsive bearish pressure with a daily close yesterday.

Today, Japan's National Core CPI report was published with a slight decrease to 0.9% as expected from the previous value of 1.0% and Tertiary Industry Activity also rose to 0.0% from the previous figure of -0.4% but failed to meet the expectation of 0.1%. Due to mixed readings, JPY was unable to provide much pressure over AUD today which lead to certain indecision in the pair currently.

As for the current scenario, JPY is expected to sustain its bearish gains over AUD whereas certain correction and volatility may be observed along the way. Until AUD comes up with a better economic report to counter the bearish pressure, JPY is expected to have an upper hand over AUD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA which is currently holding the price as support in the mid-range between 82.00 to 84.50 area. The impulsive bearish pressure had a greater impact on the recent price action where bears have engulfed the previous consolidation with a daily close yesterday. As the price remains below 84.50 with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected.


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  #2925  
Old 20-04-2018, 09:37 PM
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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for April 20, 2018

USD/CHF has been quite non-volatile and impulsive with the bullish gains recently. As a result, the price is holding above 0.97 area that is expected to proceed much higher in the coming days. Though USD is struggling to sustain its gains against other major currencies in the market, it has been dominating CHF since the price broke above 0.9250 area. This week, Switzerland's PPI report was published with a decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to increase to 0.4%. The downbeat economic report helped USD to be more impulsive with the bullish gains and dominate CHF further in a non-volatile structure. On the other hand, USD has been quite positive with the economic reports recently like Building Permits report increasing to 1.35M from the previous figure of 1.32M and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index report showed an increase to 23.2 from the previous figure of 22.3.

Today, FOMC Member Williams is going to speak about the economic development, interest rates and monetary policy which is expected to have a neutral impact on the pair for the nearest days.

As for the current scenario, USD is expected to strengthen its gains further against CHF in the coming days until CHF comes up with better economic reports to counter the impulsive bullish pressure in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been non-volatile with the bullish gains residing and respecting dynamic level of 20 EMA since it broke above 0.9450 area. The bullish momentum is currently quite strong in nature and certain retracement along the way will not impact the bullish bias in the market. As the price remains above 0.9450 with a daily close, further bullish pressure is expected.


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