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  #631  
Old 30-10-2017, 03:26 PM
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 30, 2017

The single European currency resumed moving lower as witnessed on Friday amid the sluggishness prompted by the ECB, as the central bank suspended the QE tapering. The effect of their decision would likely continue to be felt by the euro in the near term.

A sudden recovery was seen after the US dollar lost its strength on Friday, however, the impact appeared to be very insignificant and the euro is expected to keep on moving lower within this week.

The EUR was hardly hit by the ECBís decision to extend the tapering until September 2018, which was opposite to marketís expectations that the program will end without delay. The scheduled data from the European region will remain robust. Moreover, the investors who are large buyers of euro were quite surprised in the past few months from the time when the ECB touched on the QE tapering in the previous meetings.

Whereas, ECB President Mario Draghi soften the talks about the tapering plan in the previous months in order to limit the strength of the European currency. But the market is not in the mood to pay attention and keep on buying more during that period. On Friday, they were awakened from the truth when the bank clearly stated its mood not to stop QE, which weakened the EUR.
A slight rebound is expected today but the overall trend appeared to turn downwards.

Ultimately, there is no major economic release from the US or Eurozone and as the month ends, there is a possibility of a profit taking, adjustments on positions and month end currency flow. Also, consolidation is anticipated, coupled with a small relief rally which could probably be sold and temporary.
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  #632  
Old 02-11-2017, 05:18 PM
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 2, 2017

The EUR/USD pair waited for the FOMC minutes throughout the trading day on Wednesday, the minutes are expected to be issued during the American session. Aside from this pair, there are other many currency pairs that desire to know the thoughts of Fed members regarding the future rate hikes with expectations to help them determine the short-term trend for the U.S dollar.

This ensures that the single European currency was fixed in a very tight range at 30 pips, while markets in a long position understand that any choppy movement would lead to an unprofitable trade. Since the focus is centered on the positioning of trades prior the major news events coupled with large trends once the news was issued.
It became more interesting due to the subsequent news later this week which has equal of importance with concerns of the greens. It further opened the door for the possible reversal by the FOMC with the approaching news events.

The FOMC failed to achieve its target, however, most of the text remained unchanged, particularly the talks of future outlook that came in lower than market expectations. This resulted in a sudden minor shock for the USD, met some buying and pushed the bucks to a tight range until the end of the course after the minute's publication.
Considering all the projections formulated the entire day, the minutes conversely disappointed the markets which further triggered choppy data by means of the ADP report released earlier the day.

There are reports that confirmed Jerome Powell as the next head of the Fed Reserve but caused the dollar to weaken later this day, nevertheless, the effect of this news would likely be temporary.

Ultimately, the attention was turned towards the British pound as there are no releases from the United States or the European region for today. Hence, it is safe to say that there is some tight ranging and consolidation within the euro-dollar pair amid the trading day while waiting for the US employment statistics tomorrow which could roughly confirm the rate increase in December.
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  #633  
Old 08-11-2017, 03:31 PM
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2017

The GBP/USD softened during the trading course on Tuesday and it closed the day with choppiness with regards the British pound. The sterling lost its strength in the morning and successfully regained its entire losses until the closing of the day. As of this writing, the GBP is trading comfortably on top of the 1.3150 level. The rebound muddled the scenario relative to the direction of the British currency.

On one hand, the American dollar appears to remain unchanged throughout the course yesterday. US President Donald Trump is currently on a trip to different Asian countries, the twitter seems to be a good venue since Trump is outside US and sarcastic comments are not present also during this period. Therefore, it bolstered the greenbacks to maintains its position. The dollar received further support from the finishing touches on tax reform plan as the program is going through various stages. The pound was mainly bullish followed by a decline from the last fall that occurred during the BOE rate hike, however, it gave a gloomy economic perspective.

Despite the 2 cents decrease of the sterling on that day, it was able to recover within the day and worked out to acquire additional cent from the price on the same day. This indicates bullish signals towards the GBP while the market is worried about eliminating chances for more rate increase and starts to recede slowly.

Ultimately, both the United Kingdom and the United States will not release any major economic data throughout the day. Bullishness is expected to prevail amid the day. An increase from the Cable pair has the tendency to weaken and remained steady but the price could lead the price higher in the short term.
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  #634  
Old 09-11-2017, 04:52 PM
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 9, 2017

The British currency declined throughout the trading day on Wednesday as fears continue to influence the sterling relative to the Brexit negotiations, as well as the potential of Britain to maintain its economic stability during this period. The GBP went down to the 1.31 level for a short period of time prior the rebound from that point, which allowed the currency to close the day over the 1.31 mark but remained to be weak as of this moment.

Another reason for the decline of the GBPUSD is the continuous dollar strengthening that boosted the discussion on the tax reform bill. The U.S. dollar trades with little strength since the approval of the tax bill by President Donald Trump and his team. However, the confirmation is not yet through since it is currently brought into law while there are reports about the possible delay of the actual implementation. On the other hand, some say that Trump will not allow this to happen amid the uncertainties regarding this matter that would likely influence the greenbacks in the near-term.

Moreover, the GBP was supported by the entire talks concerning the slow Brexit process which continued to bog down every single day. The sterling was also affected by the pessimistic UK economic outlook brought by the latest rate announcement by the BOE, this could possibly be the reason for the continuous trading near the range lows by the Cable pair despite rate increase. Aside from the fact that the market priced in the rate hike, it further expects more from the Bank of England but the bank did not provide some positive statement that put pressure on the pound.

Ultimately, the United States or the United Kingdom will not release any major report. Therefore, consolidation is projected on either side of 1.31 mark throughout the day. The support came in at 1.31 region which is very strong along with sudden bounces which indicates that the pound is not subjected to any decline sooner or later.
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  #635  
Old 10-11-2017, 01:50 PM
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 10, 2017

The single European currency paired with the U.S. dollar drove higher during Thursday session since the trade surplus in Germany has expanded, while the U.S. initial claims rebounded. Moreover, the German growth is predicted to overcome its previous outlook as the inflation is projected to remain muted capping the upside in the pair.

The EURUSD had moved upwards and pushed back on top of the 1.1625 level near around the 10-day moving average, which serves as a support in the short-term. Further support hits the 1.1550 weekly lows. A close over the 1.17 region could possibly negate the formation and triggered consolidation. The negative momentum was seen declining as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator is printing in the red, linked with an ascending trajectory that gives signs of consolidation.
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  #636  
Old 17-11-2017, 03:17 PM
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2017

The EUR/USD pair had been moving unsteadily in the past few days as the pair moves up and down with high volatility as the greenback moves without a specific direction in the present global tone. The dollar is appealing to be bought in the short term yet the market maybe thinking twice. Although, there are instances where the rally of the dollar where it is being sold at a faster rate.

This maintains the pressure in the dollar and which would be advantageous for the euro. Whatís keeping the market optimistic for the dollar is a rate hike from the Fed in December although, the market does not strongly believe this. There are no specific indications yet with indecisiveness of Fed members while the data move at a steady pace.

This has kept the dollar weak with any news or data to be released. In the past 24 hours, the euro decline to the area of 1.1750 which is seen to move down in general. The latest relevant news would be the continuation of the development of missiles from North Korea and the ongoing investigation on the accusation of Russian intervention in the US Presidential elections. These events would drive the dollar down.

For today, the speech of Draghi are expected during the London session but it is unlikely that he would discuss the monetary policy. Hence, traders should get ready for choppiness in trading this pair and be cautious in the liquidity of the pair.
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