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Forex Analysis Analize forex market trends by using specific method of common analysis. This forum discuss about them in depth.

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  #441  
Old 14-09-2017, 04:46 PM
MikhailLF MikhailLF is offline
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LiteForex XAU/USD: gold price is going down

Current trend

During the trading session on Wednesday, September, 13, gold prices significantly went down and renewed the lows since the beginning of the month due to the preliminary information that Trumps’ Administration is ready to make public the awaited tax reform. According to unconfirmed reports, the details of the new plan can be disclosed next week.
During the morning session in September, 14, the “bearish” moods prevail. The instrument is pressed by the poor Chinese macroeconomical statistics: Industrial Production in China slowed from +6.4% YoY to +6.0% YoY in August, while the analysts expected the fastening to +6.6% YoY. The growth of Retail Sales fell from +10.4% YoY to +10.1% YoY, which is also worse than expected value of +10.5% YoY.
On Thursday the investors are waiting for the August consumer inflation data in the USA. The traders hope that the statistics will clear the perspectives of further monetary policy tightening.


Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into flat. The price range is actively narrowing, reflecting the change of the trend in the short term. It’s better to use channel trading strategy.
MACD is going down, keeping strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to keep current short positions, but wait to the clear signals to appear before opening new ones.
Stochastic has reached the limit in the oversold area and reversed into flat. The readings of the indicators reflect the correctional growth appearance in the end of the week. It’s better to close profitable short positions.
Resistance levels: 1325.65, 1334.32, 1343.98, 1350.00, 1357.15.
Support levels: 1316.03, 1307.75, 1300.44, 1291.71.


Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal around 1316.03. Take profit is 1334.32 or 1343.98. Stop loss is 1312.00. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
Steady breakdown 1316.03 can be a signal to open short positions with the target around 1300.00. Stop loss is 1328.50. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
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  #442  
Old 15-09-2017, 04:15 PM
MikhailLF MikhailLF is offline
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LiteForex AUD/USD: the pair is showing mixed dynamics

Current trend

Australian dollar moderately grew against USD as a result of trading on Thursday, September 14, moving away from local minimums since September 5. The reason for the growth of AUD was positive data on the Australian labor market in August. The level of employment in August grew by 54.2K workplaces against 29.2K last month. Analysts expected to see a decrease to 15.0K.

More serious growth was prevented by quite stable US currency that receive support from strong consumer inflation data on Thursday. In August CPI grew by 1.9% YoY after growth by 1.7% in July. Experts expected growth to make up 1.8% YoY.

On Friday, September 15, investors expected the release of the data on retail sales and industrial output in the USA at 14:30 and 15:00 (GMT+2) respectively. If this block of data also appears to be better than expected, USD may finish the week with growth.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands have reversed horizontally. The price range remains practically unchanged. MACD is going down preserving a moderate sell signal (being located under the signal line). Stochastic has approached the border of the oversold area and reversed horizontally reacting to growth attempts on Thursday.
Resistance levels: 0.7994, 0.8015, 0.8042, 0.8064, 0.8080.
Support levels: 0.7978, 0.7954, 0.7917, 0.7889, 0.7865.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 0.8015 with target at 0.8080, 0.8100 and stop-loss at 0.7970. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
A breakdown of the level of 0.7978 or 0.7954 may be a signal for further sales with target at 0.7889 and stop-loss at 0.8020. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

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  #443  
Old 18-09-2017, 07:25 PM
MikhailLF MikhailLF is offline
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LiteForex EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Friday after the release of negative data on retail sales (-0.2%) and industrial output volume (-0.9%) in the USA the price of the pair rose to 1.1985 but then was corrected and is currently trading near the middle line of Bollinger Bands at 1.1940. Currently investors are cautious waiting for the results of the Fed's meeting on Wednesday. Therefore the pair may remain within the range of 1.1920-1.1980 in the near future.

In view of the upcoming meeting of the Fed European statistics is considered less important. Here attention should be paid to the release of final August inflation data from Eurozone. The values of CPI and its basic variant are still far from target levels and make up 1.5% and 1.3% respectively. Business sentiment index by ZEW is due tomorrow. The indicator may grow from 10,0 to 12.5 points for Germany and from 29.3 to 32.4 points for Eurozone. In this case the price will continue to grow to the upper border of the range.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair has tested the middle line of Bollinger Bands around the level of 1.1920 and may soon reach 1.1980. However, serious growth to the levels of 1.2025 and 1.2090 may happen only after the price consolidates above 1.1980. Breaking down the level of 1.1920 (middle line of Bollinger Bands) will open the way for further decrease to the lower line of Bollinger Bands at 1.1855 and further to 1.1800. Technical indicators show growth: MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone and to form a buy signal, and Stochastic is reversing upwards.
Support levels: 1.1920, 1.1855, 1.1800.
Resistance levels: 1.1980, 1.2025, 1.2090.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current price with targets at 1.1980, 1.2025 and stop-loss at 1.1920.1.1920.
Short position may be opened in case the price reverses around the level of 1.1980 or breaks down the level of 1.1920 with target at 1.1855 and stop-losses at 1.2010 and 1.1950.


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  #444  
Old 19-09-2017, 05:52 PM
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LiteForex Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

As a result of trading during the previous week the price of Brent oil grew approaching maximums of April 2016. US refineries resume operations after Harvey and Irma storms. Moreover, investors became optimistic after the news about the reduction of drilling activity in the USA. Also Brent continues to receive support from IEA that increased the outlook of global demand for 2017 from 1.5 to 1.6 mln barrels a day.

The trading instrument shows mixed dynamics formed in view of expected Fed's decision on the key interest rate. The demand for high-risk assets dropped. Along with this, according to an OPEC report, the oversupply of oil in the world market is reducing, and soon the cartel and other member states will discuss the extension of the global oil pact.

A key event of the week will be the announcement of the Fed's decision on the monetary policy on Wednesday. Today attention should be paid to API report on the level of oil and petrochemicals stocks in the USA.

Support and resistance

On D1 chart the pair is growing along the upper Bollinger Band. The indicator is directed upwards while the price range has widened indicating the preservation of the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping a strong buy signal. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought area.

Support levels: 55.00, 54.30, 53.55, 52.80.
Resistance levels: 55.75, 56.10, 56.65, 57.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the current price with target at 56.30 and stop-loss at 54.80. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 54.75 with target at 53.95 and stop-loss at 55.05. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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  #445  
Old 20-09-2017, 03:13 PM
MikhailLF MikhailLF is offline
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LiteForex USD/CHF: the pair is showing mixed dynamics

Current trend

US dollar showed unstable growth against Swiss franc during trading on Tuesday, September 19, having lost the majority of advantages by the closing of the daily session. The reason was the release of uncertain data in the dynamics of housing construction in the USA in August. In turn, franc positively reacted to the strengthening of the business sentiment index and current economic conditions assessment in Germany.

During the morning session on September 20 the pair is showing cautious dynamics connected with the release of final minutes of the Fed's meeting at 20:00 (GMT+2) and the beginning of a follow-up conference at 20:30 (GMT+2). Moreover, a quarterly report by the National Bank of Switzerland is to be released at 15:00 (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range remains practically unchanged. MACD indicator is growing but is unable to consolidate above zero.
Stochastic preserves stable downward direction.

Resistance levels: 0.9650, 0.9677, 0.9702, 0.9724.
Support levels: 0.9615, 0.9584, 0.9562, 0.9541.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 0.9650 with targets at 0.9700, 0.9725 and stop-loss at 0.9610. The period of implementation is 2 days.
Short positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 0.9584 with targets at 0.9520, 0.9500 and stop-loss at 0.9630. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.


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  #446  
Old 22-09-2017, 08:06 PM
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LiteForex WTI Crude Oil: a week in the side corridor

Current trend

Oil quotes have been in the upward trend for about a month, but this week the price has entered the side corridor of 49.80-50.80. The restoration of the US oil industry after the storms and the growth of reserves (according to API ad EIA reports) put pressure on the prices. On the other hand, the quotes are supported by suggestions of some OPEC members regarding additional 1% cut of production in the framework of OPEC+ agreement, as well as the data on the fulfillment of the agreement in August by 116% against 94% in July.

Today the market is waiting for statements from the meeting of OPEC+ monitoring group. The main agenda item is expected to be the reduction of oil production in Libya and Nigeria. In the evening investors will be waiting for statistics on the number of oil rigs from Baker Hughes. For the last two weeks the indicator has been reducing (from 759 to 749) due to the Atlantic storms that hit Texas and Florida. The continuation of the trend may give considerable support to oil quotes.

Support and resistance

Technically the price has been trading within the corridor of 50.80 (Murrey level [+1/8]) – 49.80 (Fibo correction 61.8%, Murrey level [+1/8]) since the end of the previous week. Its consolidation above 50.80 will open the way for further growth to 56.60 (Fibo correction 74.6%, Murrey level [+2/8]). One may speak about decrease if the lower border of the range at 49.80 is broken down. In this case the price may be corrected to 49.20 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 48.45 (Murrey level [6/8]). Indicator show decrease: MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone, and Stochastic is directed downwards. However, fundamental factors (OPEC group meeting and the data by Baker Hughes) may give oil prices support therefore upward movement seems more likely.
Support levels: 49.80, 49.20, 48.45, 47.65.
Resistance levels: 50.80, 51.60, 52.00.

Trading tips

In the current situation long positions should be opened above 50.80 with target at 51.60 and stop-loss at 50.40.
Short positions should be opened below 49.80 with targets at 49.20, 48.45 and stop-loss at 50.20.
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