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  #2781  
Old Yesterday, 10:42 PM
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Global macro overview for 23/02/2018

The majority of the ECB's Governing Council considered that the change in communication with the market demanded by some representatives to remove the most dovish formulas (like easing bias) at the first meeting in 2018 would be premature. However, the bank maintained the state of the possibility of changing the attitude (forward guidance) at a later date as part of the regular assessment of the economic situation and maintaining stable communication with the market.

With regard to the Euro currency, it was written that although , the strengthening did not have a significant negative impact on Eurozone demand so far, volatility in currency markets is a risk factor that requires monitoring. The ECB expects that basic interest rates will remain at current levels for a long time; significantly exceeding the horizon of the QE program, which is expected to last until September this year. The ECB is prepared for its increase or prolongation, if necessary.

On the other hand, there are many dovish accents in the ECB report, which the bank does not have to withdraw (and will not have to in the near future), because inflationary pressures remain low. The emerging weak impulses for CPI are the result of cyclical improvement and concern mainly food and energy prices. Domestic demand or wages do not generate base rate increases. There are, however, signs of economic downturn, which in the perspective of several quarters will have a weakening effect on CPI. The German institute Ifo said that the economic climate index in February fell more than expected (115.4 pts vs. 117.0 pts) with the subindex of expectations at the lowest level in 10 months. Still high, but also weakening subindex of the current situation indicates the passing of the peak of economic activity in Germany in the first quarter.

In conclusion, the current macroeconomic developments will likely limit the opportunities to deepen appreciation of the Euro currency in the medium term.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bounce from the technical support at the level of 1.2257 was short lived and the market was too weak to break through the level of 1.2366 so far. This technical resistance level is the key level to the upside, otherwise, the bears will regain the control over the market and push the price towards the golden trendline support around the level of 1.2257. Any violation of this level would directly expose the technical support at the level of 1.2203 for a test.


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  #2782  
Old Yesterday, 10:44 PM
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Global macro overview for 23/02/2018

The undecided behavior of the USD this week raises uncertainty among market participants. The USD has had a weak Thursday, a recovery during the night session in Asia and the return of troubles at the opening of Europe. In general, however, we do not move much in any direction. There is a lack of conviction what to do next. Events that could change something have failed to do so. The minutes of the FOMC meeting were received as slightly dovish or slightly hawkish. Notes from the ECB meeting were also not enough for more than an hour of emotion because they did not bring anything to debate about the future of monetary policy. Stopping the depreciation of USD from the previous week violated the confidence of the sellers, and the trade interrupted by holidays added to indecision. Under its own weight, the market slightly reduces positions and makes profits, especially as the end of the month is approaching. At the same time, braver investors are looking for luck in attempts to awake some uptrends, which will hardly succeed.

USD is waiting for an impulse to confirm or invalidate the current stagnation period. This move might be triggered during the hearing of Fed President J. Powell in Congress on February 28 or a report from the labor market on March 9. It gives global investors a lot of time to think about it, and this is bad news from the side of maintaining a non-sustaining position.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market remains locked in a consolidation zone between the levels of 90.25 - 89.63, which also means it is still under the channel lower trend line. Moreover, the overbought trading conditions are indicating a possible pullback towards the level of 89.63 or even 89.37.



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  #2783  
Old Yesterday, 11:13 PM
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Large officials of the Fed amicably take up the weakening of the dollar

EUR / USD, GBP / USD.

The main event of yesterday was the publication of the ECB's minutes from the last meeting. As we expected, it turned out to be in neutral tones. But the document was enough as a pigeon, and hawkish moments. In particular, the ECB noted the accelerating inflation, raising the forecast to 1.7% for the next year (+ 0.1%), in connection with which "the Central Bank can review its monetary policy earlier this year." From the context under the beginning of the year is understood from the first half of the year.

Hawkeye-minded investors, of course, found in moments of the ECB good for themselves moments and began to buy the euro. But this growth was very weak, as European economic data turned out to be worse than expected. The index of sentiment in business circles of Germany Ifo for February fell from 117.6 to 115.4, with the expectation of a decrease to 117.1.

The GDP of the UK for the 4th quarter in the 2nd assessment was lowered from 0.5% to 0.4%, on an annualized basis. The decline was from 2.0% to 1.6%. The balance of retail sales from CBI fell from 12 to 8, with the expectation of growth to 13 points. In the United States, weekly applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 222 thousand against the forecast of 230 thousand.

The index of leading economic indicators (CB Leading Index) added 1.0% in January against the expectation of 0.7%. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, said yesterday that the expectations of the four rate hikes are overstated and unreasonable. Speaking later, Randal Quarles also supported a "gradual" increase in rates.

So, new developments were able to keep the counter dollar currencies from further falling. If today's speeches of four representatives of the Federal Reserve can convince investors of the stability of the regulator's intentions not to show excessive "hardness" (which, of course, they can do), the dollar may continue to weaken. Speakers William Dudley, Eric Rosengren, Loretta Meister, John Williams. The European data is expected to remain unchanged. Germany's GDP for the fourth quarter in the final estimate may remain at 0.6%, the basic CPI of the euro area in the final estimate for January will hold at 1.0% y / y, the base CPI at 1.3% y / y.

We are waiting for the euro in the range of 1.2520 / 40, pound sterling at 1.4150.


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  #2784  
Old Yesterday, 11:14 PM
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USD / JPY.

On Thursday, the yen did not receive sufficient support from foreign markets and some aggressive players quickly closed purchases of the beginning of the week. The US stock index S & P500 added only 0.1%, Russell2000 lost -0.20%. Today, in the Asian session, investor sentiment is improving; the Japanese Nikkei225 is growing by 0.51%, the Chinese China A50 by 0.22%, the Indian Nifty50 + 0.33%.

Japanese CPIs came out good today. The base index in the January estimate remained at 0.9% y / y against the expectation of a decrease to 0.8% y / y, the total CPI increased from 1.0% y / y to 1.4% y / y, while 1.3 % y / y. Japanese media are beginning to interpret positive Japanese data as a condition for further risk, and negative data as confidence that the Bank of Japan will not rush with the curtailment of monetary incentives. This feature tells us that the Central Bank has really set about correcting the situation and the markets are given a medium-term direction.

We are waiting for the yen to rise to the level of 108.00. Further to the range of 108.50 / 80.


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  #2785  
Old Yesterday, 11:22 PM
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Fundamental analysis of EUR/CAD for February 23, 2018

EUR/CAD has been non-volatile with the gains after breaking above the 1.5350 price area which is expected to be retested in the coming days. Due to recent worse economic reports from Canada, EUR has been the dominant currency in the pair with mixed economic reports. The weakness of CAD emerged, having minimum development after the recent rate hike.

Today the German Final GDP report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.6%. The Final CPI and Final Core CPI are also expected to be unchanged at 1.3% and 1.0% correspondingly. Though the economic reports are expected to be unchanged, any positive or negative outcome of the reports can impact the growth of EUR in the coming days.

On the other hand, today CAD CPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous negative value of -0.4%. The Common CPI is expected to increase from the previous value of 1.6%, Median CPI is expected to increase from the previous value of 1.9%, Trimmed CPI is expected to increase from 1.9% and Core CPI is also expected to be have better result increasing from the previous negative value of -0.5%. As of the current scenario, CAD is expected to have better outcome today whereas EUR is expected to be unchanged.

The indecisive economic reports from Europe are likely to result in the euro losing some grounds for a certain period which can be regained in the longer term. To sum up, CAD is expected to take the lead for a certain period before EUR takes the lead again.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been non-volatile with the bullish gains and the Bearish Divergence has been spotted. As of the current scenario, the price is expected to retrace towards 1.5350 in the coming days before showing any bullish momentum in the pair. The lower volume in the bullish gains recently indicates the weakness of bulls which is expected to lead to bearish pressure in the pair. As the price remains above 1.5350, the bullish bias is expected to continue further but with certain retrace.


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  #2786  
Old Yesterday, 11:28 PM
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Fundamental analysis of EUR/GBP for February 23, 2018

EUR/GBP is currently showing bearish squeeze towards 0.8700-50 support area which is expected to break below in the coming days. Despite having worse economic reports recently, GBP sustained it momentum against EUR which is expected to continue further in the coming days.

Today the German Final GDP report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.6%. The Final CPI and Final Core CPI are also expected to be unchanged at 1.3% and at 1.0% correspondingly.

On the other hand, today Bank of England Deputy Governor David Ramsden is going to speak about the upcoming monetary policies and the key interest rates which is expected to be neutral with its impact for the GBP.

As of the current scenario, EUR economic reports forecasted to be quite indecisive with an unchanged value whereas any positive comments from Ramsden are expected to inject volatility and impulsive pressure on the GBP side in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 0.8850 trend line resistance after a rejection off the level. The trend line has been respected quite well along the bearish squeeze from where the price is expected to hold as a resistance and push lower towards the support area of 0.8700-50. As the price remains below 0.89 price area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.



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