Last week, AUD was decreasing due to the positive US economy data and RBA leaving the interest rate unchanged at the its previous minimum level. Yesterday, after FOMC announced the decision to raise the interest rate to 1%, US dollar decreased. J. Yellen, Head of FOMC, confirmed that there should be more interest rate hikes this year, and her evaluation of US economy sounded positive. Nevertheless, US dollar kept falling. AUD/USD grew for more than 150 points rapidly, breaking through two strong resistance levels of 0.7600 and 0.7660, and almost reaching its 4-month maximum. Night data on labor market and inflation in Australia appeared worse than expected, which weakened the pair a bit.
Today, attention should be paid to data on new houses due on 14:30, and PMI index (the outlook is negative).
Support and resistance
Today, the pair will most probably move upwards to the upper border of the D1 chart channel within 0.7800-0.7830.
Support levels: 0.7660, 0.7600, 0.7540, 0.7490, 0.7420.
Resistance levels: 0.7740, 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7830.
Buy positions with targets at 0.7740, 0.7780 and stop-loss at 0.7650 may be opened at market price.
The alternative scenario is opening short positions at the level of 0.7600 with targets at 0.7540 and stop-loss at 0.7650.
On the daily chart the pair was corrected to the middle lint of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The price will move within the sideway channel between upper and lower border of the indicator.
The MACD histogram in near the zero line, its volumes are minimal, the signal line is ready to cross the zero line downwards and give a sell signal.
«The Stochastic» is in the neutral zone, keeping a buy signal; the lines of the indicator are pointed upward.
On the 4-hour chart the pair is growing along the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The price tested the resistance level of 1231.30, and the growth slowed down. The price range, formed by the borders of the indicator, is still expanded, so the development of the upward trend is possible.
The MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes are slightly growing. The signal line is crossing the zero line and the histogram’s body, giving a signal to open long positions.
«The Stochastic» is in the neutral zone, keeping a weak sell signal, the lines are pointed downward.
Open long positions from the level of 1234.00 with the target at 1250.00. Stop loss is at 1226.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Open short positions at the level of 1215.00 with the target at 1195.00 and stop loss at 1223.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/
The last week was positive for the EUR/USD pair due to the “dovish” FRS mood of the interest rate rise and the positive for the EUR Netherlands Elections result. The growth o the pair slowed in the end of the week due to the traders’ fixing the profit, which presses the price to the level of 1.0700. The pair managed to close above this level, which entrusted the “bulls”. In the beginning of the week the pair is growing and tested the level of 1.0780.
Due to the absence of the significant news from the Eurozone and the USA, the pair will move within 1.0800-1.0600 in the short term and middle term period.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart the pair is growing along the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The MACD histogram is near the zero line, its volumes are growing, the signal line crosses the zero line upwards, giving a signal to open long positions.
Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0640, 1.0600.
Resistance levels: 1.0780, 1.0800, 1.0825.
Open long positions at the current price with the target at 1.0800 and stop loss at 1.0720.
Short positions open from the level of 1.0690 with the target at 1.0640 and stop loss at 1.0720.
Implementation period: 1-3 days.
On the daily chart the pair is traded within the middle line and the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the growth of price slowed. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are minimal, the signal line crosses the zero line downwards, giving a signal to open short positions. The Stochastic is growing towards the border of the neutral zone whit the overbought one, the signal line is pointed upwards, in case of crossing of the border the sell signal will be received.
On the 4-hour chart the pair is traded sideways within the narrow channel of the Bollinger Bands indicator borders. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, moving sideways and keeping its volumes at the level of 0.060. The Stochastic is in the neutral zone, giving no clear signal.
Open short positions at the current price with the target at 16.80. Stop loss is at 17.70. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Open long positions at the level of 17.70 with the target at 18.50 and stop loss at 17.30. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
On the 4-hour chart the price broke down through the level of 11904.5 (correction by 38.2%) but stopped on the 50% line of the ascending fan. This indicates the possibility of a turn to 12008.0 (correction by 23.6%, middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 12136.0 (the area of March maximums). The possibility of growth is confirmed by Stochastic that is about to leave the oversold zone and to form a buying signal, and by Fibonacci summation series, according to which the fall has been going on for five days. To continue the fall, the price needs to consolidate below 50.0% fan line. In this case the targets of the "bears" will be 11820.0 (correction by 50.0%) and 11737.0 (correction by 61.8%).
The price has been growing on D1 chart for over 90 days, and according Fibonacci summation series may continue to do so. Currently the price has corrected from March maximums to the lower line of Bollinger Bands (12820.0) and may regain growth to 12973.5. In case the price consolidates below it, it may continue decreasing to the levels of 11636.5 (23.6% correction for long-term trend; 76,4% correction for middle-term trend) and 11136.5 (correction 38.2%).
Long positions may be open if the price consolidates over 11904.5 with targets at 12008.0 and 12136.0. Stop-loss order should be placed at 11873.0.
Alternatively, if the price consolidates below 50.0% fan line, selling positions may be opened at the level of 11863.0 with targets at 11820.0, 11365.0 and stop-loss at 11890.0.
During the trading session on Wednesday the gold prices grew by 0.38% due to the weakening of the USD. The price met the resistance level of 1251.21 and was slightly corrected. The traders’ activity lowered in expectation of the Head of the FRS Janet Yellen Speech today (14:45 GMT+2). The investors are waiting for the signals about the interest rate rise. If Janet Yellen implies the possibility of the rise on the June meeting, the USD will be significantly supported in the short term, which leads to the lowering the metal prices to the level of 1240.37 and lower. The neutral mood of the commentaries will support the gold prices to grow to the area of 1260.00.
Support and resistance
The technical picture is mixed. The Bollinger Bands indicator is pointed upwards, reflecting the possibility of further growth. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes decreasing, reflecting the lowering of the traders’ activity. In case of breakout of the level of 1251.21 the upward trend will develop further.
Support levels: 1244.17, 1237.86, 1230.84.
Resistance levels: 1251.21, 1260.18, 1268.51.
Open short positions below the level 1244.17 with the target at 1237.86 and stop loss at 1246.17.
Open long positions above the level 1251.21 with the target at в районе 1260.18 and stop loss at 1248.20.
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is approaching its longer MA. The Composite is testing its strong resistance.
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is testing its longer MA from below. The Composite turned up having failed its beginning of the week support. Both indicators are forming a Bearish pattern.
The price is testing its previous descending trendline that coincides with its moving averages that the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. There is a chance of a downward rebound.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 17.27, 17.20 and stop-loss at 17.65. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 17.73 with targets at 18.02, 18.38 and stop-loss at 17.62. Validity – 3-5 days.
In the opening trading session the US indices restores the losses: after reaching the minimum at the level of 5314.3 Nasdaq was corrected and now is trading at the level of 5332.1. The next target is at the 3/8 Murray or 5341.9.
The lowering was due to the cancelling of the health care reformation voting in the USA Congress. The Republicans didn’t come to the agreement upon the necessity of the reformation and postponed the voting for the indefinite period. A lot of investors were disappointed and began to doubt if Trump can provide the actions that he promised during the Evections and get the support of the Congress. On the other hand the USA can partially benefit from the lowering of the USD, as the US goods will become more competitive in the worlds markets, which is quite difficult to imply due to the tightening of the monetary policy.
This week the USA GDP data, which is to be published on Thursday, are worth traders’ attention. The index is expected to be 2%.
On the technical picture the Stochastic is above the level of 20 and reflects the growth of the index.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 5341.9.
Support levels: 5314.3.
Open long positions at the current price with stop loss at 5314.3 and the target at 5341.9.
The new lowering to the levels of the March minima is possible.
On the 4-hour chart the price rebounded from the level of the minima of the last two months and tried to be corrected to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator (2342.5). The further movement is unlikely, as the pair should pass the downward fan. The key “bullish” level is at 2350.0 (correction 38.2%), in case of the breakout here the price can grow to the level of 2359.5 (correction 50.0%) and 2369.0 (correction 61.8%). The new lowering to the area of the levels of 2323.0 and 2319.5 (the March minima) seems more likely to develop. However in this case the price should be set below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and the level of 2338.5 (correction 23.6%). The Stochastic is reversing in the overbought area, which confirms the possibility of the lowering.
On the daily chart the price rebounded from the level of 2318.0 (correction 23.6%) and now is moving to the area of the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (2365.5). The Stochastic has reversed upwards, which confirms the forecast. However the possibility of the lowering is not excluded, as the sequence confirms it. The first target of the movement will be the level of 2318.0 (correction 23.6%), which has been tested before.
The short positions seems more preferable, but open ones if the price is set below the level of 2338.5 with the target at 2326.0, 2319.5. Stop loss is at 2343.0.
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