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  #771  
Old 27-03-2017, 03:59 PM
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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 27th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Gaps Upward and U.S Index Downward, Eyes on German Ifo

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EUR/USD inaugurated Monday trading session with a +23-pips upward and added additional gains +23-pips with 1.0849 high supported by Friday's positive Data and overwhelming political optimism . On the other hand, U.S index prolonged the bearish momentum for the second week in a row, and today the Index gaped downward with -$.042, and bottomed at 99.06 11-Nov-2016 fresh lows.

On Friday, markets were awaiting for the white smoke coming from of Trump's oval office with a positive vote to replace Obamacare health program, but unfortunately, a darker smoke was instead which added more negative weight and pressured U.S Dollar facing its classic rival EURO. Currently the pair is trading 1.0849, with one pip difference to re-reach today's high indicating additional bullish waves for the cable as a reminder of 2016 glorious levels for EUR/USD. In addition to that, Firday's heathcare decision consecqunces are still to impact USD.

Analysts at ANZ explained that the failure of Donald Trump’s replacement healthcare bill to make it through congress will be viewed by the market as a major setback for the ‘Trump trade’ (although market moves late on Friday were a little surprising).

Fundamentals :

1- EUR- German Ifo Business climate today at 9:00 AM GMT.

2- EUR- M3 Money Supply y/y today at 9:00 AM GMT.

3- EUR - Private Loans y/y today at 9:00 GMT.

4- USD - FOMC member Evans speech at 6:15 AM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish

Resistance levels : R1 1.0873, R2 1.0908, R3 1.0949.

Support levels : S1 1.0819, S2 1.0759, S3 1.0673

Remark : Taking the current situation of collapsing, the market posture is bullish and signals for a larger emerging upswing, hinting for a trending drive towards R2 level. Stable action over 1.800+ will encourage follow through rallies. A full retraction of Tuesday's range is needed to flip trade to a correction page, but only a close below S3 level is needed for trend reversal and the market to consider the cable bearish. EU data not be missed today, in addition to that, FOMC member Evans speech today where markets should look for hawkish tilts which might lift or save U.S Index from further declines.


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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
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  #772  
Old 27-03-2017, 04:08 PM
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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 27th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Japanese Yen Holds a Ruthless Grip Over Softer US Dollar

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Japanese Yen launched Asian trading sessions with a sharp strong tone facing pale greenback supported by positive summary by BOJ and Services Producer Price Index SPPI 0.8% compared to 0.5% on previous sessions. The pair penetrated the taboo support level (110.60) aggressively with 110.25 22-Nov-2016-fresh lows, from which bull forces rallied at 103.71 7-Nov-2016 low. Overall, USD/JPY has shed -79-pips as price action, trading below 200 SMA (111.17 D1), and it is expected to drift downward further more given the current circumstances.

BOJ Summary was as follows :

1- Japan's economy has continued its moderate recovery trend and Private consumption has been resilient against the background of steady improvement in the employment and .

2- Exports and production have remained firm on the back of a global pick-up in manufacturing, mainly supported by IT-related goods.

3- Japan's economy is likely to continue to recover in line with the path we expect, backed by synergy effects of the government's large-scale stimulus package and the Bank's monetary easing measures, with improvements in overseas economies.

4- Japan's economy is projected to continue to see moderate recovery toward fiscal 2018 unless downside risks stemming from developments in overseas economies materialize, such as a rise of protectionism, political and economic instability in Europe, and an increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Asia.

On the other hand, US Dollar was bearish for the second consecutive week with a clear signal for additional bearish forces as the Index gaped downward -$0.42 and dug deeper at 99.06, 2017-new-lows. Trump's health care voted with an annulment on Friday showed Republicans weak trying to replace ex-Democratic Obamacare health program, which added additional question mark around Trump's capacity to lead the free world nation (USA), and consequences are expected to dilate further more as U.S Wallstreet opens.

Fundamentals :

1- USD - FOMC Member Evans speech today at 6:15 PM GMT.

2- USD - CB Consumer Confidence tomorrow at 3:00 PM GMT.

3- USD FOMC Member Kaplan speech tomorrow at 6:00 PM GMT.

Technical:

Trend : Bearish

Resistance levels : R1 111.33, R2 112.38, R3 113.33

Support levels : S1 110.25, S2 109.33, S3 108.20

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Remark : Current situation of low U.S Index and positive Japanese Data signals for further dips for USD/JPY. Negative decision on Trump's healthcare program will still tail for the coming trading hours and market should expect further declines for US Dollar.Also, FOMC members appearance this week is heavy, traders should watch for hawkish hints regarding coming U.S Fed hikes with efforts to rescue U.S Index.

A penetration for S1 will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2 level. A close below S2 level projects additional bear forces for the cable but be careful from setback as a test on support levels. Keep in mind that below S3 level is a threat for USD/JPY Nov-2016 rallies. A close above R2 level is an alert for trend reversal and above R3, bullish trend will re-confirmed once again.


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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
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  #773  
Old Yesterday, 01:53 PM
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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 28th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

GBP/USD Clocks Two Months High Ahead of Article 50 Release

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Sterling was the talk of the market yesterday with a 1.2615 high and extended the bearish momentum for the 10th consecutive sessions. Although the pair lost -47-pips as price action since yesterday, the pair successfully sustained the 1.25 handle and currently trading 1.2568 intraday. Overall, GBP/USD rallied 471-pis since the U.S Fed hike, till yesterday high, and the pair is preparing for additional bullish waves due to soaring U.S Index yesterday with 98.65 2017-fresh-lows.

On the other hand, UK demands a final departure politically and financially from the EU. Political is by PM May releasing article 50 on the 29th of March which will set a new course for UK, but before that, PM May met with Scottish PM Nicola Sturgeon. Sturgeon has called for a second Scotland independence referendum, against May's will, but the terror attack from last week has interrupted the tense relations between them both. After officially lunching the Brexit, the UK will have two years to negotiate new arrangements, after which it will no longer be subject to EU treaties.

On the Financial level, The EU has to make up a budget gap once the Brexit becomes official. Britain's exit from the European Union indicates that one of the bloc's biggest economies will stop making donations to its budget. This arouses questions as to how long the U.K. will proceed to pay its share of the budget and how can the EU fill the blacnk once Britain has officially left. The U.K. has already said it will not pay a 60 billion euro ($64.73 billion) bill to departure the bloc – money that according to the EU would be used for the U.K.'s share of commitments to the pensions of its workers and U.K.-based projects that have already received funding approval. At the same time, some member states have already told Brussels that the UK are not willing to pay more into the EU budget to compensate for the U.K.'s divorce. (CNBC)

Fundamentals:

1- USD - Goods Trade Balance today at 1:30 PM GMT.

2- USD- CB Consumer Confidence today at 3:00 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.2598, R2 1.2640, R3 1.2682

Support levels : S1 1.2531, S2 1.2462, S3 1.2392

Remark : Given the current situation of pale greenback trading 98.96, and GBP/USD significant rallies Sterling has the upper hand which supports the pair's bullish forces. Closing above R1 restores confidence for Sterling and the pair has the tendency to climb to R2 level. On the other hand, stalling below S1 will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2 level signaling a beginning for trend reversal. Closing below S2 is a confirmation that bearish forces has taken control and market to consider GBP/USD bearish with a reminder that the pair collapses intensively on psychological level. Political issues such as article 50 and Scottish referendum are vital for Sterling levels on the fundamental level.



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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
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