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  #2701  
Old 12-02-2018, 11:29 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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The pound plays the role of a pendulum

The British pound swept the roller coaster, first taking off significantly above an important psychological value of $1.4 mark against the backdrop of the Bank of England's "hawkish" comments followed by a collapse below $1.39 due to the growing risks of the tough Brexit negotiations. According to the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, if the differences between Brussels and London continue, there can be no question of a transition period. The attention of investors has again shifted to negotiations, which makes the sterling perform the functions of a pendulum.

"Bulls" of the GBP/USD pair easily fought the resistance of their opponents, who bet on a strong dollar in the conditions of rising volatility and the collapse of the S&P 500, after the results of the February meeting of the Bank of England became known. The regulator noted that the tightening of monetary policy could go faster than currently expected markets. As a result, fixed-term contracts increased the chances of raising the repo rate in May from 38% to 70%, and the pound soared to $ 1.4065. BoE is easy to understand since the easing of inflation from 3% to 2% requires either aggressive monetary restriction or revaluation of sterling. The optimism of the Committee on Monetary Policy and its "hawkish" rhetoric can lead to the latter.

At the same time, finding unemployment in the lowest rate for the last 42 years at 4.3% and the positive forecasts of employers expecting the acceleration of average salaries from 2.6% to 3.1% in 2018, allow the Central Bank to raise the forecast for GDP for the current year from 1.7% to 1.8%. Indeed, if the gap between consumer prices and wages again becomes negative, Britain can hope not only for strong external demand but also for domestic resources, including the growth of the purchasing power of the population.

Dynamics of average wages and inflation in Britain


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Alas, but the regulator's desire to accelerate the sterling is not enough. Firstly, the monetary policy normalization factor is not the only driver of changes in the GBP/USD pair. There are still concepts, such as the strength of the dollar and capital flows. Secondly, political risks continue to hang over the pound with a sword of Damocles.

Although the reports argue that the decision must be reached by the end of March. In fact, negotiations can be progressed on. If it does not appear on the horizon, the divorce will be held on the terms of the WTO. At the same time, the longer the uncertainty persists, the greater the risk of capital flight from the financial markets of the Foggy Albion, which is a bearish factor for the GBP / USD pair. Let's not forget about the macro statistics. Investors will be focused on the release of data on inflation and retail sales in the week of February 16.

Technically, it targets 161.8% on the AB = CD pattern, which can give a breather to the bulls of GBP/USD pair. A breakout of the support level at 1.3755 will strengthen the risks of the development of correction towards the area of 1.3605 and the lower limit of the upward trading channel.

GBP / USD, daily chart


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  #2702  
Old 12-02-2018, 11:32 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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The fate of the dollar in the "hands" of the U.S. consumer inflation

During the entire week previously, one hundred percent influence of the situation was influenced by the American stock market. High volatility, accompanied by a sharp drop and rise of stock indexes, predominates the beginning of the week, which sparked fears that panic could start in the market. However, after the collapse on Monday along with a number of speeches by Fed members, it showed that turbulence in the markets does not cause them any concern as the gradual decline in stock indices continued.

In the understanding of further prospects, the dynamics of the US Treasury government bonds yields are important. The yield on the 10-year Treasury benchmark finished the week at the local highs of 2.857%. This indicates that the market perceives the current decline in shares not in the form of a panic and corrective but as a continuation of sales on the debt market can lead to further growth in profitability. In this case, it is believed that the excess of the yield of the 10-year bonds reached above the 3.0% mark that will become a real trigger in the continuation of a corrective decline of the stock market in the United States and a decrease in demand for risky assets in the world. In this situation, the US dollar will begin to enjoy noticeable demand.

On this wave, it is expected that we get closer to the meeting of the Fed on monetary policy, whereas the results will be known on March 21st. The dollar may receive more visible support, but only if the outgoing data on the U.S. economy will show a positive attitude, and the figures on consumer inflation will indicate the continuation of the upward trend.

So far, according to the dynamics of futures on federal funds rates, the probability of interest rate growth by 0.25% to 1.75% is estimated at 71.9% in March. While there are still a significant number of skeptics on the market, their numbers will diminish considerably if inflation increases. This will be a strong supporting factor for the dollar, which is currently hampered by investors' hopes that some central banks, whose major currencies will decide in changing their monetary rates this year. Primary central banks are the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE). In summary, we emphasize that the forecast of the dollar will either grow weakly or continue to consolidate before the Fed meeting, remains in forc
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  #2703  
Old 12-02-2018, 11:33 PM
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Forecast of the day:

The EUR / USD pair is trading in the range of 1.2200-1.2300 in anticipation of the release of data on the GDP of the eurozone and consumer inflation in the US, which will be published this week.

The GBP / USD pair is above the level of 1.3845. Breaking this level may lead to a drop in the price of 1.3745.


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  #2704  
Old 13-02-2018, 09:56 PM
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Global macro overview for 13/02/2018

During Tuesday's trading session, investors' eyes were turned towards the British Pound due to a publication of inflation data in the United Kingdom. This release was particularly awaited by the market participants after the Bank of England signaled a possible faster pace of interest rate hikes. It turned out, the CPI inflation was higher than expected by market consensus.

The consumer price and services index stabilized in January at 3.0% y/y against expected drop to 2.9% y/y. In turn, core CPI inflation increased more than anticipated - to 2.7% from 2.5% per annum. On the other hand, PPI inflation decelerated slightly. The above data together with better prospects for the British economy support expectations for the start of a cycle of monetary policy tightening by BoE. Risk aversion and uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations now have a greater impact on the Pound than CPI data.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has tried to rally after the data was released, but dropped eventually to test the recent technical support at the level of 148.90. It is worth to notice, that the market conditions are now oversold and there is a clear bullish divergence forming between the price and the momentum indicator, which might spark a bounce towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 150.44 and above.


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  #2705  
Old 13-02-2018, 09:58 PM
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Global macro overview for 13/02/2018

The stock market continues to dictate the conditions for other asset classes while maintaining volatility at an elevated level. Since Monday the risky currencies(EUR, AUD, NZD, SEK, NOK) are under pressure, and "safe havens" are doing better. Although on Monday, more characters said that the worst was over and we are returning to stability, today after the Asian session there is no continuation of peace. Nikkei gets into a row, and stock exchanges in China reduce growth after a solid start driven by a good session on Wall Street.

The currency market is traditionally lowered by USD/JPY rate, which breaks 108 this morning. Optimism comes from commodity currencies and emerging markets currencies are saved only by the fact that the market has lost the eagerness to return to the USD. This is why the market participants are right to conclude, that the US Dollar will not gain on the basis of strengthening its own foundations, but as a result of closing the short positions accumulated in previous weeks. It is not a solid fuel. If the direct attitude of investors to USD is to change, it will sooner come from rising inflation expectations and implications for the Fed's monetary policy.

From this point of view, tomorrow's CPI reading from the US remains the key. However, it is uncertain whether the data will be favorable, given the high consensus (0.4% m/m). Higher volatility can save USD against risky currencies, but it will not help in confronting JPY, CHF or EUR.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has broken below the technical support at the level of 108.12 and now is testing the nearest support at the level of 107.53. The downward momentum is still strong, despite the oversold market conditions. In a case of an extension, the next support is seen at the level of 107.32 (daily time frame support).


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  #2706  
Old 13-02-2018, 10:04 PM
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Brent is on the heels of shares

The oil futures marked the worst five-day period in the last 2 years, and only the rebound of US stock indices allowed the bulls to find the ground under the feet of the black gold. Over the past few months, Brent and WTI have confidently moved north due to optimism about improving the health of the global economy and the associated increase in global demand, but a correction in the US stock markets has questioned the effectiveness of the above connection. Especially since the slate mining is not slumbering.

The OPEC raised oil production forecasts in the States by 0.15 million b / s, to 1.3 million b / s in 2018, adding that it is the US that is the main threat to the bulls for Brent and WTI, because they form the majority of increase in the aggregate indicator (+1.4 million b / s). At the same time, the International Energy Agency expressed concern that US companies could disrupt the return of global black gold reserves to the boundaries of their five-year averages. Currently, the difference is 52 million barrels, and over the past year, it has decreased by 80%. In December, global stocks fell at the fastest pace in the last 6 years.

Dynamics of deviation of global stocks from 5-year averages


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The threat that the States will flood the market with oil, is increasing as the number of drilling rigs increases from Baker Hughes. By the end of the week, by February 9, the indicator increased by 26 and reached the level of 791, the highest since April 2015.

And ye,t the main reason for the panic was the behavior of stock indices, which increased fears for global demand. It is his dynamics that lay a solid foundation for rising trends for Brent and WTI. At the same time, OPEC forecasts an increase in the indicator by 1.59 million, to 98.6 million barrels, and the IEA increased its estimate for 2018 from +1.3 million to +1.4 million b / s. In this regard, the sooner the pullback in the US stock markets ends, the faster the oil prices will recover.

Dynamics of WTI and Dow Jones


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In this, hedge funds also sincerely believe, only slightly reducing the record net-long. Their cumulative value for the two main grades of black gold still exceeds 1 billion barrels in equivalent, which indicates the hopes of speculators for a quick rebound.

Not the least role in the fate of oil is the dollar, whose positions have become stronger in the light of the growth in the volatility of financial instruments. Strengthening the US currency theoretically makes oil more expensive in the countries-largest consumers, that is, slows down demand. In this respect, investors should closely monitor the release of inflation data in the US in January. A sharp upward spurt of the indicator can provoke a new wave of S & P500 sales, strengthen the dollar and put pressure on black gold.

Technically, after reaching a target of 88.6% for the pattern of the "Shark", the risks of Brent's recoil in the direction of $ 65 per barrel increase. Updating the February low will create prerequisites for the development of a correction to $ 60.

Brent, daily chart


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  #2707  
Old 13-02-2018, 10:37 PM
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The current exchange rate of the Bank of Japan under serious threat

The strong growth of the Japanese yen, which is observed recently, seriously worried the Governor of the Bank of Japan again, who made a number of statements today.

Recently, the demand for the Japanese yen has grown significantly after the collapse of the US stock market, which began in early February this year. The Japanese yen acts as a safe haven with gold, which is less demanding.

The European currency is also not suitable for the role of a safe haven, since recently it is a very volatile asset against the backdrop of possible changes in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Also, there is no serious confidence in the US dollar after the measures taken by the administration of the US President Donald Trump on tax legislation, which so far led only to an increase in the budget deficit.

Let me remind you that, according to the report of the US Treasury, the budget deficit from October 2017 to January 2018 amounted to 176 billion US dollars, which is 11% more compared to the same period last year. The new tax reform will lead to an even greater reduction in revenues, amounting to $ 1.5 trillion.

The strong growth of the yen could harm the national economy and seriously affect the export, and especially inflation. In his speech, Kuroda, the bank manager of Japan, said that he would persistently continue the current mitigation policy and would continue buying ETFs to achieve the target inflation rate of 2%. He also pointed out that he will closely monitor possible side effects of ETF purchases.

As I noted above, Kuroda is also seriously concerned about fluctuations in the markets, saying that while it continues to closely monitor them, hinting, therefore, on the possibility of non-verbal intervention from the Bank of Japan, as the current situation in the markets can seriously affect the economy and prices. According to Kuroda, Japan's fundamental economic performance and corporate profits remain strong.

Despite this, his comments had no effect. As for the technical picture of the USD / JPY pair, the situation is indeed very serious. Now, the third test of a large support area in the 107.50-108.50 area is taking place on the market, the breakthrough of which can seriously change the alignment of forces, which is contrary to the plans of the Japanese government. The demolition of the above support area will lead the yen to the levels of 2016 in the support area at 105 and 102 yen. If the area of 107.50-108.50 still stands under the pressure of sellers, then you can expect to rebound to the middle of the channel around 111.70.


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Despite this, his comments had no effect.
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  #2708  
Old 13-02-2018, 10:50 PM
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Lack of important data helps the euro

The US dollar fell against the single European currency during the trading yesterday on the background of lacking important fundamental statistics. It is possible that some pressure on the dollar came from the report of the US Treasury, which indicated that the US government spending in January 2017 grew much faster than tax revenues and led to an increase in the budget deficit.

According to the data, the budget deficit from October 2017 to January 2018 amounted to 176 billion US dollars, which is 11% higher compared to the same period of the previous year.

It should be noted that the new tax reform will lead to an even larger reduction in revenues of $ 1.5 trillion, which will further increase the US budget deficit. The report also indicates that government revenues in January 2018 increased by 5% compared to January 2017, while expenditures increased by 6%.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD currency pair, the 1.2340 level remains a problem for the European currency, the breakthrough that will lead to a further upward trend of the trading instrument with the update of 1.2390 and 1.2430. In the event of a reversal to the support level 1.2290, the pressure on the euro may rise again which will lead to a test of the levels 1.2240 and 1.2210.

The Australian dollar managed to strengthen partially its positions against the US dollar and recover during the Asian session, after data that the index of conditions for doing business in Australia for the month of January this year increased compared to December. This indicates strengthening of the momentum in the Australian economy.

According to National Australia Bank (NAB), the index of conditions for doing business in January rose to 19 points, while the long-term average was 5 points. The business confidence index rose to 12 points.


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As for the technical picture of AUD/USD pair, the current growth indicates only the formation of a small correction after a major fall, which was formed in early February this year. The main target of the major players will be the area of 0.7660, but for this, it is necessary to keep below the level of 0.7915 in the short term.

The quotes of oil reacted positively to the OPEC report and even rose slightly at the beginning of the week, but it was not possible to keep on the new highs which led to further selling of black gold by the end of the day.

According to the OPEC report, oil production of the cartel in January this year fell by 8,000 barrels per day, and commercial oil reserves of OECD countries in December fell to 2.888 billion barrels.

Despite this, OPEC expects that the oil supply outside the OPEC countries will grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2018, and this will mainly because of the help from the United States. Global demand for oil in 2018 will be 98.6 million barrels a day.
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  #2709  
Old 13-02-2018, 10:58 PM
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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for February 13, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite indecisive after breaking below the 134.50 support area from where the price is expected to proceed lower towards the 131.50 support area in the coming days. JPY has been the dominant currency in the pair since the price bounced back from the 137.50 price area and is expected to continue its bearish pressure with certain corrections along the way lower. Today, JPY PPI report was published with a decrease to 2.7% as expected from the previous value of 3.0%, and Prelim Machine Tool Orders report showed an increase to 48.8% from the previous value of 48.3%.

On the other hand, today, EUR French Prelim Private Payrolls report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%. This week we do not have any high influencing economic reports on both EUR and JPY side to inject impulsive pressure with a definite directional momentum. As of the current scenario, JPY is expected to be the dominant currency in the pair having backed by the recent positive economic reports which is expected to outrun the EUR gains in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below the 134.50-135.00 price area from where it is expected to correct itself throughout the week before proceeding lower towards the 131.50 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below the 134.50-135.00 area and the dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.


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  #2710  
Old 13-02-2018, 11:00 PM
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The risks of continuing the decline of stock markets have not disappeared

The US dollar began a new week with a weakening against the major currencies. This occurs against the backdrop of an increase in demand for risk, accompanied by an increase in the share price of companies.

Earlier, the dollar received substantial support due to the near-panic sentiment in the markets, caused by the growing expectations that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, and on concerns of the inflation of financial bubbles. Regarding the events, markets recalled what happened after the legendary head of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan left, happened when Janet Yellen's stepped down. Greenspan had even frankly stated on the Bloomberg channel that he sees two financial bubbles - in the market of stocks and bonds. Then the markets woke up and correction began. But now everything seems to be returning to normal.

Investors continue to ignore the growth in the yield of government bonds of the US Treasury. The profitability of the benchmark of 10-year-old Treasuries is still "hanging" under the local high at a psychologically significant level of 3.0%, the intersection of which will be unambiguously perceived as a certain crossroad, the intersection of which will make the demand for profitability attractive, and not earnings for exchange rate differences. This will lead to increased demand for the dollar and, as a consequence, to its growth in the currency markets. Recall that now at the time of writing, the yield of 10-year government securities is at 2.848%.

So what is holding investors back and making them buy shares of companies, despite the risks? First of all, it is the hope that inflation in the US will not show active growth, the second is that on this background the Fed will continue to slowly raise rates, which, in conjunction with the presence of still high volumes of liquidity in the market, allows for a good profit. But if suddenly inflation increases, and there are prerequisites for this - a strong growth of wages for the last 8.5 years, the continuation of positive dynamics in the labor market against the backdrop of economic growth - we will witness not only a continuation of a smooth correction, but an increase in the fall of stock indices with a simultaneous increase dollar exchange rate.
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