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  #621  
Old 09-02-2018, 05:25 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Fractal analysis for USD / JPY currency pairs as of February 9


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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 110.42, 109.75, 109.22, 108.88, 108.33, 107.68, 106.88 and 106.38. Here, we follow the downward structure from February 2. We expect the continuation of the downward movement after the breakdown of 108.33. In this case, the target is 107.68. Near this is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of 107.65 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the level of 106.88. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 106.38, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 108.88 - 109.22. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 109.75. This level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of February 2.

Trading recommendations:


Buy: 109.23 Take profit: 109.75

Buy: 109.77 Take profit: 110.40

Sell: 108.30 Take profit: 107.70

Sell: 107.65 Take profit: 106.90
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  #622  
Old 09-02-2018, 05:27 PM
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Feb 09, 2018


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In Asia, Japan will release the Tertiary Industry Activity m/m and M2 Money Stock y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as Final Wholesale Inventories m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:


Resistance. 3: 109.40. Resistance. 2: 109.19. Resistance. 1: 108.97.

Support. 1: 108.71. Support. 2: 108.50. Support. 3: 108.28.
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  #623  
Old 12-02-2018, 09:10 PM
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The USD/JPY pair was choppy last week, but price ended going further southwards, closing below the supply level at 109.00. The demand level at 108.50 has been tested and will be tested again, get breached to the downside and go further southwards. The outlook on the JPY pairs is bearish for this week.


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  #624  
Old 13-02-2018, 09:59 PM
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Global macro overview for 13/02/2018

The stock market continues to dictate the conditions for other asset classes while maintaining volatility at an elevated level. Since Monday the risky currencies(EUR, AUD, NZD, SEK, NOK) are under pressure, and "safe havens" are doing better. Although on Monday, more characters said that the worst was over and we are returning to stability, today after the Asian session there is no continuation of peace. Nikkei gets into a row, and stock exchanges in China reduce growth after a solid start driven by a good session on Wall Street.

The currency market is traditionally lowered by USD/JPY rate, which breaks 108 this morning. Optimism comes from commodity currencies and emerging markets currencies are saved only by the fact that the market has lost the eagerness to return to the USD. This is why the market participants are right to conclude, that the US Dollar will not gain on the basis of strengthening its own foundations, but as a result of closing the short positions accumulated in previous weeks. It is not a solid fuel. If the direct attitude of investors to USD is to change, it will sooner come from rising inflation expectations and implications for the Fed's monetary policy.

From this point of view, tomorrow's CPI reading from the US remains the key. However, it is uncertain whether the data will be favorable, given the high consensus (0.4% m/m). Higher volatility can save USD against risky currencies, but it will not help in confronting JPY, CHF or EUR.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has broken below the technical support at the level of 108.12 and now is testing the nearest support at the level of 107.53. The downward momentum is still strong, despite the oversold market conditions. In a case of an extension, the next support is seen at the level of 107.32 (daily time frame support).


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  #625  
Old 13-02-2018, 10:00 PM
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According to the expectation for this week, the USD/JPY has been going southwards. Price has shed 120 pips this week, following the brief consolidation that was seen on Monday. The demand level at 107.50 has been tested, and it would be breached to the downside, as another demand level at 107.00 is being targeted.


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  #626  
Old 13-02-2018, 10:40 PM
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 13, 2018


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USD/JPY is under pressure. The pair has repeatedly tested the immediate support at 108.45. Currently, it has returned to levels above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, but remains capped by the key resistance at 108.45.

The U.S. dollar consolidated some of its recent gains, as stock markets showed signs of stabilization following two weeks of sharp declines.

Below 108.45, choppy trading with a bearish bias is expected. Crossing at 107.30 on the downside would trigger a further fall toward 107.05.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended to be above 108.45 with a target of 108.95.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 108.45, take profit at 107.30.

Resistance levels: 108.85, 109.25, and 109.55

Support levels: 107.30, 107.05, and 106.75.
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  #627  
Old 13-02-2018, 10:55 PM
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Wave analysis of the USD / JPY currency pair for February 13, 2018


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Analysis of wave counting:

The low activity of yesterday's trading did not allow the currency pair USD / JPY to determine the direction of the movement, so, until the end of the day, the price remained within the range limited to 108.80 - 108.40. It can be assumed that after completing the formation of the wave 5, c, b, a, (C), the currency pair will nevertheless designate the beginning of the future wave c, a, (C). At the same time, the probability of resuming the decline in quotations to 107.40 and further complicating the internal wave structure of the entire wave c, b, a, (C), continues to be relevant.

The objectives for the option with a downward wave:

108.28 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

107.41 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with an upward wave:

111.01 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

111.89 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The tool continues to build the uptrend section of the trend. The increase in quotations may resume with the targets near the marks of 111.01 and 111.89, which corresponds to 50.0% and 38.2% of Fibonacci, within the framework of the construction of the complicated wave 4, c, b, a, (C). Within the limits of wave 5, c, b, a, (C), the decrease in quotations can still continue with the targets being about 108.28 and 107.41, which equals to 100.0% and 127.2% according to Fibonacci, and below. The MACD convergence warns about the readiness of the tool to increase.
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  #628  
Old 13-02-2018, 11:07 PM
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USD/JPY

Yesterday, it was a national holiday in Japan, the yen with a common neutral position of the US dollar was traded around the level of 108.70. Optimistic data on loans came out in China. The volume of loans issued in January amounted to 2.90 billion yuan against expectations of 2.00 billion - a historic record. The growth of bank lending increased from 12.7% y/y to 13.2% y/y, against expectations of a slowdown to 12.5% y/y.

Perhaps the surge in lending is related to the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday, which begins on February 15 and lasts a week. Last year, the lending growth in January was 95.2%, from 1.04 billion yuan to 2.03 billion in December.

On the stock markets of the APR today, general optimism in connection with yesterday's growth of US indices by 0.9% -1.7%. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index is 0.93%, the Chinese China A50 is 2.68%. The price index for corporate goods in Japan added 0.3% in January against the forecast of 0.2%, but on an annual basis, the indicator fell from 3.1% to 2.7% y/y.

Another positive news for the Japanese currency was the news of preliminary consent of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to appoint Haruhiko Kuroda as head of the Central Bank for a second term. Previously, we doubted this reassignment, but apparently the Japanese government simply did not find a way out of the so-far-gone situation with "economic reforms".

We are looking forward to the pair's growth to 109.30 and further to the range of 109.75/90.


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  #629  
Old 14-02-2018, 04:30 PM
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The USD/JPY has tested the demand level at 107.50 several times, without breaching it to the downside. The demand level would eventually be breached to the downside as the price goes further southwards, owing to the bearish outlook in the market. Other targets are located at the demand levels of 107.00 and 106.50.


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  #630  
Old 14-02-2018, 04:37 PM
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 14, 2018


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In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim GDP q/q, Prelim GDP Price Index y/y, and the US will release some Economic Data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Business Inventories m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m. So there is a probability that the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 108.11. Resistance. 2: 107.90. Resistance. 1: 107.69.

Support. 1: 107.42. Support. 2: 107.21. Support. 3: 107.00.
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