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  #6571  
Old 13-02-2018, 09:54 PM
riki143 riki143 is offline
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USD/JPY Daily Analytics
12:51 13.02.2018


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The nearest "Window", which acted as support, has been broken. Considering that there's no any reversal pattern, the price is likely going to continue declining.


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The price has been declining since the last "Shooting Star" pattern arrived. If any bullish pattern forms in the coming hours, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

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  #6572  
Old 13-02-2018, 09:57 PM
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Safe haven currencies. 🔝

Overall a safe haven asset is an investment that is expected to strengthen during the periods of uncertainty. Besides other assets, some currencies are sought by investors to limit their exposure to losses when the market is in the state of risk aversion and they are known as Refuge Currencies.
🔹 Which are these safe currencies?
🔹 Which factors make investors buy one currency instead of another one?
Find out in this article
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and tell us what currency do you think is the safest?


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  #6573  
Old 13-02-2018, 10:34 PM
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  #6574  
Old 13-02-2018, 11:03 PM
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  #6575  
Old 14-02-2018, 08:05 PM
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GBP/USD Daily Analytics
06:59 14.02.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.3770; resistance – 1.3900.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 1.3880; SL — 1.3900; TP1 — 1.3770; TP2 — 1.3680.
Buy — 1.3920; SL — 1.3900; TP1 — 1.3990; TP2 — 1.4040.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are in the negative area and had returned to SSB’s resistance.


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  #6576  
Old 14-02-2018, 08:50 PM
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AUD/USD Daily Analytics
07:00 14.02.2018
Technical levels: support – 0.7750, 0.7815; resistance – 0.7880

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7870/80; SL — 0.7900; TP1 — 0.7815; TP2 — 0.7750.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market returned to bottom border of the Cloud.


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  #6577  
Old 14-02-2018, 09:02 PM
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USD/CHF Daily Analytics
07:25 14.02.2018
Recommendations:

BUY 0.9465 SL 0.941 TP 0.955 TP2 0.9655

SELL 0.926 SL 0.9315 TP1 0.916 TP2 0.906 TP3 0.9015

On the daily chart of USD/CHF, the inability of bulls to keep the pair above 0.9410 points at their weakness. Return to correction low at 0.9465 will allow us to talk about the “Head and Shoulders” pattern. To continue the decline the pair has to break below January low.


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On H1, USD/CHF is forming “Spike and ledge” and “Bat”. To continue the decline, bears need to pull the dollar below support at 0.93 and 0.9280.


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  #6578  
Old 14-02-2018, 09:08 PM
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GBP/USD: BEARISH "PENNANT"
10:19 14.02.2018


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There's a bearish "Pennant", so the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.3741. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this level happens afterwards, bulls will probably try to reach the next resistance at 1.3895 - 1.3944.


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The market is consolidating between the Moving Averages. The main intraday target is the closest support at 1.3763 - 1.3741. This area could be a departure point for a bullish price movement in the direction of another resistance at 1.3895 - 1.3944.

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  #6579  
Old 14-02-2018, 09:47 PM
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GBP/USD Daily Analytics
07:33 14.02.2018
Recommendations:

SELL 1.415 SL 1.4205 TP1 1.405 TP2 1.3950

SELL 1.3795 SL 1.3850 TP1 1.3695 TP2 1.3560

On the daily chart, GBP/USD bulls managed to defend the important level of 1.3830 and want to consolidate in the 1.3800-1.4150 area. If the pair renews February low, the risks of it going to 88.6% target of the “Bat” pattern will increase.


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On H1, GBP/USD bulls try to form “Wolfe waves”. If they manage to do it, the pound may rise to the upper border of the descending channel at $1.41-1.4150. The pullback to the downside will be a selling signal.


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  #6580  
Old 14-02-2018, 09:58 PM
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THE US DOLLAR WEAKNESS AHEAD OF CPI DATA
08:37 14.02.2018
Today we expect the CPI and Retail Sales data at 15:30 MT time. If we look at charts, the greenback is depreciating against all currencies.

Why is it happening with the US dollar and what should we expect from the inflation data?

Let’s look at some forecasts.

Nomura predicts the deceleration of the core inflation in January. They declare monthly core CPI at 0.2% compared to the December one of 0.3%. Such reduction will lead to the annual core CPI decrease by 0.1 percentage point from 1.8% in December to 1.7% in January. Talking about the headline CPI data, they expect an increase from 0.1% to 0.4% in monthly figures and the rise of the annual to 2.0%. Such growth is based on higher gasoline prices and firm growth of food prices.

RBC has almost the same forecast as Nomura about the core and headline CPI. Moreover, RBC does not anticipate any real momentum until the second quarter of 2018. They expect that negative effects from the last year will roll off the year calculation only by that time. The annual headline inflation will be able to come closer to 3% in the third quarter.

The forecast of Barclay does not differ from the previous ones a lot. They expect the monthly core level to be at 0.2% and the annual one at 1.6%. The monthly headline inflation will increase by 0.4%, the annual by 1.9%.

The average forecast of the main economic experts declares the slight decrease of the monthly data of the core CPI growth from 0.3% to 0.2%. The headline CPI is anticipated to rise by 0.2 percentage points (0.1% to 0.3%) m/m.

Let’s sum up.

The rise of inflation is important for the US dollar. If the CPI is higher, it is more likely that the Fed will raise interest rates. An increase of the interest rates always leads to the strengthening of a domestic currency, so the greenback will have chances to strengthen its positions.

But the data is mixed, we expect the fall of the core CPI growth and the rise of the headline CPI at the same time. However, we can say that the forecasts are not negative. The fall is just by 0.1 percentage points. The annual headline CPI forecast is still below 2%, but not too much lower.

So why the dollar is weakening a lot?

The reason can be hidden in the lack of beliefs in the strong dollar. The market is used to the weak greenback, that is why every negative data can cause its further fall. Another reason is the strengthening of the global equity markets after the great selloff. Furthermore, US 10-year yields are now down to lows on the day, as Treasuries are more bid on the day.

So the greenback cannot find a support in any way.

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