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FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

EURUSD

EUR/USD managed to rise from support at $1.3625 and test $1.3710.

55-period MA is starting to slope down.

The prices returned inside the Ichimoku Cloud. Tenkan-sen (red line at $1.3667) is providing some support. The Cloud turned bearish, but isn’t widening.

MACD remains in the negative territory, but above the signal line. RSI (14) went from oversold to the neutral state (46).

Above $1.3667 there’s scope for increase to $1.3718/33. Upper Bollinger band is at $1.3760. Below this level we’ll be selling.

Resistance: $1.3690, $1.3705, $1.3740/50, $1.3790

Support: $1.3667, $1.3625, $1.3613, $1.3600 and $1.3575 (200-period MA)


Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

EUR - 14:00 GMT - Belgian NBB Business Climate

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

GBPUSD

GBP bulls have given some ground after a quick test of the $1.6485 high last week. Cable has been consolidating in a narrow descending channel since then. However, the pair remains supported at $1.6320 (23.6% Fibo) for now.

H4 MACD histogram is declining and is below the signal line (bearish signal);
Cable slipped below the 100- and 55-period MAs.
Support: $1.6320, $1.6300 (channel support), $1.6230 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance: $1.6360, $1.6400,$1.6430


Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

USDJPY

USD/JPY is retracing a little lower from 104.60 (5-year high 104.60). Our next target for the pair lies at 105.55.

USD/JPY holds above the bullish H4 Ichimoku. The Kijun line lies above the Tenkan line, but both lines are flat.
The pair remains supported by the 55-day MA (102.85) and the 100-period MA (102.50);
H4 MACD histogram is declining and is below the signal line (bearish signal);
104.00/103.75 is the key area of support for now.
Support: 104.00/103.90, 103.75, 103.40

Resistance: 104.60, 105.00, 105.55



Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)
USD/CHF

USD/CHF is correcting lower after hitting the 0.9000 mark (38.2% Fibo) on Friday.
We believe the last week’s break above the 0.8975 resistance opened the way to 0.9050.
The pair remains supported by the wide bearish Ichimoku, the 100-period MA and the middle Bollinger (0.8970/45 area);
H4 MACD histogram is declining and is below the signal line.
Support: 0.8930/20, 0.8900/8890
Resistance: 0.9000, 0.9030, 0.9050


Chart. H4 USD/CHF

Upcoming events:
USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index
USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending
USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

AUD/USD

AUD/USD recovered to $0.8950.
The pair returned to the upper Bollinger band and approached 55-period MA.
All MAs keep declining that indicates that a medium-term downtrend is well in place.
The prices are below the bearish Ichimoku Cloud. However, the Cloud stopped expanding, while Tenkan and Kijun formed a golden cross, weak as it is below the Cloud. Still these lines provide support ($0.8900).
MACD has reached the 0 area on its way up. RSI rose almost to 60.
There will be no news from Australia to help Aussie extend upward correction.
Resistance: $0.8970, $.8990/9000, $0.9040
Support: $0.8900, $0.8820, $0.8800, $0.8755


Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Upcoming events
USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index
USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending
USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)
AUD/USD

As expected, USD/CAD corrected down to 1.0635.
The pair is supported at the current level (100-period MA, Ichimoku Cloud top).
200-period MA is still going up, so the medium-term uptrend continues. 55-period MA is horizontal though and below the 100-period one.
MACD is going down and approaching 0 from. RSI (14) declined to 45.
The bullish Ichimoku Cloud stopped expanding. Tenkan-sen turned down.
The loss of 1.0660 allows downside scope for 1.0600, the lower Bollinger band.

Support: 1.0635, 1.0615, 1.0600, 1.0560
Resistance: 1.0685, 1.0700, 1.0725, 1.0745


Chart. H4 USD/CAD

Upcoming events
USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index
USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending
CAD - 13:30 GMT - GDP
USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Dec. 24: Asian session

Asian stocks rose boosted by the gains in the American session as the upbeat US spending data showed that US economic recovery gaining momentum. In addition, China’s central bank moved to ease a cash crunch by making its first market-wide money injection in three weeks.

Japan’s Nikkei went up by about 0.8% to 6-year high above 16,000 after Tokyo markets opened after a holiday. USD/JPY rose to 104.41.

AUD/USD declined to $0.8907 after peaking to $0.8960 yesterday. NZD/USD edged down to $0.8176. Gold dipped below the $1,200 level yesterday and is heading for its biggest annual loss in three decades.

EUR/USD slid to $1.3675 after it tested $1.3716 on Monday. GBP/USD is consolidating around $1.6345.

EUR/USD: how do the banks trade?

There’s a choice among various shorts.

BoA/Merrill: Short at $1.3764 with stop at $1.3834 and take profit at $1.3479

Credit Agricole: Short at $1.3780 with stop at $1.4160 and take profit at $1.3300

Credit Suisse: Short at $1.3800 with stop at $1.3860 and take profit at $1.3415

Commerzbank: Short at $1.3750 with stop at $1.3815 and take profit at $1.3405

Commerzbank: Short at $1.3665 with stop at $1.3815

Morgan Stanley: Short at $1.3600 with stop at $1.3750 and take profit at $1.2700

Nomura: trajectory for USD/JPY

Analysts at Nomura have outlines a scenario for USD/JPY using Elliott waves. The specialists expect the pair to trade sideways in the 102.50/104.50 during the next month in the wave (4) and then rally to 106.00 in the wave (5).

Credit Agricole: Q1 GBP forecasts

GBP/USD

GBP/USD to weaken to $1.6200 in the stronger USD environment. Britain's officials will try to talk the pound down in Q1 2014.



Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

EUR/GBP

As for EUR/GBP, the pair is expected to fall towards 0.8200 by end-March. Pound will gain some ground vs. the euro on a wave of EUR sales.


Chart. Weekly EUR/GBP